Ethiopian Airlines Crash/ B737MAX grounding

gctest50 · 31-03-2019 06:50PM

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Perhaps it's time the general public asked why a seat costs 90k out the same screen on an android tablet is a fraction of the price.

I work in IT and I remember a former boss taking me a story about an IBM mainframe that his company paid to upgrade in the early 80's to double the processing speed. They paid IBM $4.5m dollars. IBM sent out an engineer who just soldered two wires together. Hey presto, speed doubled.

Perhaps they should have asked why the IBM cost about 30 billion dollars in r&d

Second most expensive thing at the time behind the space race

MoeJay · 31-03-2019 08:31PM

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Perhaps it's time the general public asked why a seat costs 90k out the same screen on an android tablet is a fraction of the price.

I work in IT and I remember a former boss taking me a story about an IBM mainframe that his company paid to upgrade in the early 80's to double the processing speed. They paid IBM $4.5m dollars. IBM sent out an engineer who just soldered two wires together. Hey presto, speed doubled.

Perhaps it’s time the general public asked if there is some kind of link between the demand for ever cheaper air fares and the aversion of a manufacturer to spend many many millions in the development of a new airframe vs. “evolving” an existing type...

...and the cost of optional extras...

...and the cost of training crew on a new type vs. an existing type...

...and the singular desire to maximize profit for the airline (and manufacturers) to satisfy their shareholders...

...and the increasing workload demanded as a standard in the industry of the flight crew...

..and the under investment in regulators (which is effectively political)...

...you can have all of these things change, but someone has to pay. Ultimately it will be the passenger. How much is it worth?

odyssey06 · 31-03-2019 08:50PM

MoeJay wrote: »

Perhaps it’s time the general public asked if there is some kind of link between the demand for ever cheaper air fares and the aversion of a manufacturer to spend many many millions in the development of a new airframe vs. “evolving” an existing type...

What's to stop a CEO charging higher fares, and keeping the cost of the 'optional extras' as bonus?
I don't see remotely what cheap air fares has to do with this.

MoeJay · 31-03-2019 09:14PM

Maybe if I put it this way:

An adequately resourced regulator is approached by a manufacturer to approve a new variant of an existing design. The manufacturer could make a new design but the costs involved and risk of getting a return vs. an existing product make the shareholders balk.

The regulator says there is a characteristic of this new variant and its systems that warrants an optional extra to become a mandatory feature.

The regulator also says in order for existing crew to be qualified on this new variant they must all go through a mandatory training programme which takes them off line and not available to fly passengers (or freight).

The manufacturer goes back to its customers and says the price for this aircraft has now gone up by x%. The airline and manufacturer want to make their margin. The shareholders demand their return, so the cost flows down to the end user - the passenger.

Airline A (taking on this new aircraft) puts up its fares in response and passenger goes to airline B (without the aircraft) because of the price difference.

Unless there is some other way of breaking the chain above....

Turbulent Bill · 31-03-2019 11:38PM

MoeJay wrote: »

Airline A (taking on this new aircraft) puts up its fares in response and passenger goes to airline B (without the aircraft) because of the price difference.

Unless there's some marked difference in service, the passenger will obviously pick the cheaper of Airline A and B - what other metric would they use? The airline will recoup the larger cost price of new aircraft through lower operating costs, otherwise they'd just stick with whatever they currently use.

At least in the West, the broad perception is that airlines (and aircraft) are all equally safe; it's not a factor when we choose a flight. The MAX issues shows that this isn't the case, and potentially the regulator was asleep at the wheel. Passengers will ultimately pay for more regulation, but at least there's enough competition these days to keep the costs fair.

Turbulent Bill · 31-03-2019 11:47PM

I wonder what Ryanair's take is on the MAX's issues? They have significant orders for them, but could probably stick with their current 738s if necessary. Would they (and other major users like Southwest) be cutting improved deals with Boeing in return for a public show of faith once the MAX is back flying? Or are they all in the same mess together?

MoeJay · 01-04-2019 09:36AM

Turbulent Bill wrote: »

Unless there's some marked difference in service, the passenger will obviously pick the cheaper of Airline A and B - what other metric would they use? The airline will recoup the larger cost price of new aircraft through lower operating costs, otherwise they'd just stick with whatever they currently use.

I’m not sure it’s as simple as that if the initial price goes up. The amount to recoup the investment has to change. It may be enough to warrant not spending the money at all...there is a massive market in secondhand airliners!

Passengers will ultimately pay for more regulation, but at least there's enough competition these days to keep the costs fair.

I’m not sure what you mean by “fair” - in aviation, should regulation really be part of the competitive landscape?

josip · 01-04-2019 10:05AM

Apologies for the following questions, my only knowledge of aviation is as a passenger.

What are Norwegian still flying the 737 MAX?
From their website I thought that they had grounded all aircraft of this type.
https://norwegian.custhelp.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/147/~/traffic-information
But this morning's flight from Dublin to Stockholm was a MAX.
I'm assuming that if there was any risk, the pilots and cabin crew would refuse to fly it?
But if there's no risk, why did the IAA suspend it on March 23?
Have they since 'unsuspended' it?

troyzer · 01-04-2019 10:07AM

josip wrote: »

Apologies for the following questions, my only knowledge of aviation is as a passenger.

What are Norwegian still flying the 737 MAX?
From their website I thought that they had grounded all aircraft of this type.
https://norwegian.custhelp.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/147/~/traffic-information
But this morning's flight from Dublin to Stockholm was a MAX.
I'm assuming that if there was any risk, the pilots and cabin crew would refuse to fly it?
But if there's no risk, why did the IAA suspend it on March 23?
Have they since 'unsuspended' it?

It was probably just rebasing.

josip · 01-04-2019 10:16AM

troyzer wrote: »

It was probably just rebasing.

What's rebasing and if the MAX was suspended in Irish airspace since the 23rd, would it not have 'rebased' before the 1st of April?

ratracer · 01-04-2019 10:19AM

josip wrote: »

Apologies for the following questions, my only knowledge of aviation is as a passenger.

What are Norwegian still flying the 737 MAX?
From their website I thought that they had grounded all aircraft of this type.
https://norwegian.custhelp.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/147/~/traffic-information
But this morning's flight from Dublin to Stockholm was a MAX.
I'm assuming that if there was any risk, the pilots and cabin crew would refuse to fly it?
But if there's no risk, why did the IAA suspend it on March 23?
Have they since 'unsuspended' it?

Are you sure it was a MAX and not a 737-800?

josip · 01-04-2019 10:24AM

ratracer wrote: »

Are you sure it was a MAX and not a 737-800?

Good question, I wasn't on it, I was told it was a MAX by a colleague travelling on it. I'll check.

Edit. I've checked and it is indeed an 800.

https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/NAX4468

Sorry for the red herring.

Captain_Crash · 01-04-2019 10:59AM

josip wrote: »

Good question, I wasn't on it, I was told it was a MAX by a colleague travelling on it. I'll check.

Edit. I've checked and it is indeed an 800.

https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/NAX4468

Sorry for the red herring.

Norwegian use the same safety card for the 737NG and MAX. Its not the first time I've seen this confusion online with someone seeing the words "MAX" on the safety card then the flight crew saying "Welcome on board this Boeing 737 service to XXX"

Its understandable when 99% of the world couldn't tell the difference between the two that some people put 2+2 together and get 5.

Coil Kilcrea · 01-04-2019 02:52PM

smurfjed wrote: »

Generally during negotiations, each manufacturer will offer various OPTIONS, these can be simple like HF radio.
If BOEING didn’t explain the MCAS to flightcrew then I seriously doubt that their sales team explained it or the implications of not having it.
However this shouldn’t allow Boeing to pass the blame to individual airlines. They seriously fecked up with this system from the design, certification and implementation.
Having lost a colleague in Ethiopia, I seriously hope that his family take them to the cleaners !

Absolutely spot on! Moreover, there’s a sinister arrogance in a Boeing inspired narrative that suggests these pilots were possibly not trained well enough or properly. No such issues in the States ..... kind of stuff which is particularly offensive.

The thought of these poor divils wrestling with an airplane that’s not behaving as it should is utterly terrifying, the loss of life appalling and the ‘optional extra’ safety requirement revolting.

HTCOne · 01-04-2019 08:50PM

Even ferry/training flights on the MAX are now banned by EASA. Operators were allowed move the aircraft once after the ban came into force. There was a debate about it and it was felt there was too much risk involved. You will not see any MAX aircraft airborne in Europe until the MCAS issue has been resolved, and even then EASA will hammer the hell out of a single or handful of airframes to completely recertify it themselves, they’ve said they won’t be taking any certification from the FAA on board.

TomSweeney · 02-04-2019 12:08AM

So Ryanair are going ahead with the 737 MAX ?

Locker10a · 02-04-2019 12:36AM

TomSweeney wrote: »

So Ryanair are going ahead with the 737 MAX ?

I would imagine yes once it’s proven safe and certified by EASA

Jeff2 · 02-04-2019 03:31AM

They have the black box a while now.

I would have expected news on that by now.?

Captain_Crash · 02-04-2019 07:07AM

From CNN: Boeing's 737 MAX jets will remain grounded for weeks after the Federal Aviation Administration said Monday afternoon that the plane maker continues to work on a software fix.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/01/politics/boeing-737-max/index.html

TomSweeney · 02-04-2019 09:21AM

Captain_Crash wrote: »

From CNN: Boeing's 737 MAX jets will remain grounded for weeks after the Federal Aviation Administration said Monday afternoon that the plane maker continues to work on a software fix.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/01/politics/boeing-737-max/index.html

But they won't be grounded in Europe ?

I have a Ryanair flight booked Barcelona -> Dublin 25-29 April, I'm assuming it won't be a MAX that soon ??

billie1b · 02-04-2019 09:31AM

TomSweeney wrote: »

But they won't be grounded in Europe ?

I have a Ryanair flight booked Barcelona -> Dublin 25-29 April, I'm assuming it won't be a MAX that soon ??

The first 6 Ryanair Max aircraft are going to Stansted, the next 20 to Poland and then the rest after that spread around Europe.

Captain_Crash · 02-04-2019 09:41AM

TomSweeney wrote: »

But they won't be grounded in Europe ?

They'll be grounded in Europe until EASA says otherwise. I'd imagine that once the FAA approve any new fix, EASA will scrutinize it with a fine tooth comb before giving the all clear so expect to see MAX's flying in the US before the EU.

ZiabR · 02-04-2019 09:41AM

TomSweeney wrote: »

But they won't be grounded in Europe ?

I have a Ryanair flight booked Barcelona -> Dublin 25-29 April, I'm assuming it won't be a MAX that soon ??

You can refuse to fly. If you are not comfortable, then don't fly on a MAX. I am not saying you will be refunded, you won't. You will lose your money but its up to you if you wish to fly or not.

What is really annoying me in the past week is that Boeing are rushing to get a fix/update to its MCAS software rolled out. Despite clear links between the Lion Air and Ethiopian Air crashes (both linking to the MCAS), Boeing are refusing to admit any blame.

Their moral compass is so far from reality, the mind boggles.

Van.Bosch · 02-04-2019 10:06AM

ZiabR wrote: »

Their moral compass is so far from reality, the mind boggles.

Fully agree but legally there is no way they can say anything in fairness.

They will need to wait until the official reports blame MCAS even though the fact a “fix” is needed at all speaks volumes.

Bob24 · 02-04-2019 10:31AM

Captain_Crash wrote: »

They'll be grounded in Europe until EASA says otherwise. I'd imagine that once the FAA approve any new fix, EASA will scrutinize it with a fine tooth comb before giving the all clear so expect to see MAX's flying in the US before the EU.

And you can expect the same level of scrutiny in China which I assume would be a key market for the 737 Max, as well as possibility other Asian countries.

Even if the FAA provides approval quickly, this is likely going to be an issue for Boeing for a while.

CiboC · 02-04-2019 10:37AM

Jeff2 wrote: »

They have the black box a while now.

I would have expected news on that by now.?

I don't know how reliable the source on this is, but if true it is frightening to think that the system was pitching the nose down at only 137 metres from the ground...

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47759966

cnocbui · 02-04-2019 10:57AM

ZiabR wrote: »

You can refuse to fly. If you are not comfortable, then don't fly on a MAX. I am not saying you will be refunded, you won't. You will lose your money but its up to you if you wish to fly or not.

What is really annoying me in the past week is that Boeing are rushing to get a fix/update to its MCAS software rolled out. Despite clear links between the Lion Air and Ethiopian Air crashes (both linking to the MCAS), Boeing are refusing to admit any blame.

Their moral compass is so far from reality, the mind boggles.

American companies only have financial compasses.

errlloyd · 02-04-2019 11:04AM

cnocbui wrote: »

American companies only have financial compasses.

Ah I was watching Dirty Money on netflix yesterday and VW were just as bad when it came to cheating emissions. Their cars produce 40 times more NOX than they claimed they did and that kills 10,000 Americans per year.

cnocbui · 02-04-2019 11:35AM

errlloyd wrote: »

Ah I was watching Dirty Money on netflix yesterday and VW were just as bad when it came to cheating emissions. Their cars produce 40 times more NOX than they claimed they did and that kills 10,000 Americans per year.

VW sell lots of large trucks, buses and trains in the US, do they?

HTCOne · 02-04-2019 12:36PM

cnocbui wrote: »

VW sell lots of large trucks, buses and trains in the US, do they?

Are Scania busses/trucks sold in the US? VW own them.

Ethiopian Airlines Crash/ B737MAX grounding

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