Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady · 01-04-2019 06:30PM

Just confirming that the votes are at 8pm?

Irish Praetorian · 01-04-2019 06:30PM

briany wrote: »

They should stop calling the thing a "people's vote". It's a second referendum. Just call it that. I think using "people's vote" makes Leave supporters more hostile to it, because it sounds like a re-brand to try and sneak it past.

To be fair, casting Brexit as 'the will of the people' isn't much different, particularly considering the metamorphosis from before the vote with all the talk of being like Norway or Switzerland, easily done trade deals and a compliant Europe, to afterwards and the cold factual realities as well as the shoe horning of no deal as the crystallized desire of every single Leave voter.

Amusingly enough I was reading a Delta poll from the 29th on what people would like to see happen with Brexit next, and the talk of a No Deal Brexit managed to command the stagger heights of 51% approval - from people who had voted Leave in 2016. Amazing this entire show has persisted for so long.

McMurphy · 01-04-2019 06:33PM

Is there a nude protest taking place within parliament at the minute or is it fake news?

(Slightly) NSFW.

https://i.postimg.cc/Dzv0bfqV/FB-IMG-1554140047006.jpg

ShooterSF · 01-04-2019 06:37PM

briany wrote: »

They should stop calling the thing a "people's vote". It's a second referendum. Just call it that. I think using "people's vote" makes Leave supporters more hostile to it, because it sounds like a re-brand to try and sneak it past.

Well the issue is that both "people's vote" and "second referendum" both suggest that the vote will offer remain vs an other option but the item on the ballot is not a second referendum at all but a "confirmatory vote" which suggests the people would simply be asked to confirm or not confirm any deal passed and the govt would decide the consequence of a no vote.

However no one supporting it seem to make that clear. Instead it seems like they want to pass one thing and call it another after it passes and claim it was obvious that that was clearly what was meant when it was put forward.

McMurphy · 01-04-2019 06:38PM

Apparently some of the protesters have glued themselves to security glass.

WTF?

Capt'n Midnight · 01-04-2019 06:39PM

Deleted User wrote: »

For many leave voters, a rebellion against globalization was part of the reason they want to leave the EU. The EU representing many of the features of globalization that puts some people at a disadvantage as big business brings in cheap labour to deny them a career and export's the profit to another country to avoid tax.

Wut ?

The EU has fined multinationals billions,
forced them to accept data protection, workers rights, health and safety, restricted monopolies, and other stuff in exactly the same way the US and China don't

The EU is far from perfect but compare it to the real world alternatives.

Also under May millions of non-EU migrants have arrived in the UK. And that aspect of globalisation has nothing to do with the EU.

BTW if the UK leaves then about half of the worlds tax haven's will be fair game for EU laws. At present the UK can block EU action on them. So in that case leaving the EU works. It would take pressure off us and a few others too. But like the migrants that is something the UK could take action on without the EU.

Spook_ie · 01-04-2019 06:51PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Most of the main Norwegian political parties would prefer to be full members. It's just been difficult to get the people to agree on it. Last referendum was in 1994 and was defeated by 52.2/47.8% with an 87% turnout.

Not democratic enough, they should be made to vote again with some minor wording differences.

MrMusician18 · 01-04-2019 06:52PM

briany wrote: »

They should stop calling the thing a "people's vote". It's a second referendum. Just call it that. I think using "people's vote" makes Leave supporters more hostile to it, because it sounds like a re-brand to try and sneak it past.

It sounds like a rebrand because it is a rebrand. It's obvious that they've found that "second referendum" isn't playing well in the focus groups.

The ambiguity around the confirmatory referendum is in the same vein. Win getting a second referendum first, then the ballot paper is the next battle.

briany · 01-04-2019 06:53PM

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

To be fair, casting Brexit as 'the will of the people' isn't much different, particularly considering the metamorphosis from before the vote with all the talk of being like Norway or Switzerland, easily done trade deals and a compliant Europe, to afterwards and the cold factual realities as well as the shoe horning of no deal as the crystallized desire of every single Leave voter.

If a UK person is determined to leave the EU, then no-deal is going to be their default position, once, as you say, the factual realities hove into view. EFTA isn't really a goer (as Vote Leave said it was) because it crosses too many lines.

It's not really the metamorphosis of all the promises into a no-deal that bothers me, it's that each no-deal-supporting Brexiteer expects that every other Brexiteer has the same mindset as they do, whereas some Brexiteers may - just may - have their preference as,

-Fantasy EFTA

-Remain

-Reality EFTA

-No deal

Junkyard Tom · 01-04-2019 06:54PM

If we passed a law stating that you need to spend at least two weeks in Ireland every year to keep your Irish passport we'd bring in a lot cash monies.

Zubeneschamali · 01-04-2019 07:13PM

briany wrote: »

If a UK person is determined to leave the EU, then no-deal is going to be their default position, once, as you say, the factual realities hove into view.

Saying No Deal is the real Brexit is like someone deciding to leave Ireland, and 2 years later saying that the only real option is to declare themselves Emperor of Rockall.

Barking mad stuff.

devnull · 01-04-2019 07:22PM

briany wrote: »

If a UK person is determined to leave the EU, then no-deal is going to be their default position, once, as you say, the factual realities hove into view. EFTA isn't really a goer (as Vote Leave said it was) because it crosses too many lines.

The argument that leaving and agreeing certain other terms and deals with the EU is not Brexit and therefore democracy is dead is utterly flawed, because the ballot paper only asked people if they want to remain a member of the European Union.

The document written as a result of the Referendum Act 2015, Free Movement, Customs Union, in fact a whole range of options were marked as possible outcomes if the UK voted to no longer be a member of the European Union.

Therefore to go for one of these outcomes would be consistent with the referendum text.

Strazdas · 01-04-2019 07:24PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Saying No Deal is the real Brexit is like someone deciding to leave Ireland, and 2 years later saying that the only real option is to declare themselves Emperor of Rockall.

Barking mad stuff.

Even if you could claim there was a certain section in favour of it, there's no way you can say 52% of the population voted for No Deal in 2016. Had that been on the ballot paper, it would have received a thumping defeat.

devnull · 01-04-2019 07:24PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Just confirming that the votes are at 8pm?

Probably will be a damp squib, you'll have the same tactical voting as last week. This is why you saw the SNP and The Independent Group abstaining against things that they would be supportive of last week.

I think that once again we'll see people abstain from stuff they actually support tonight, because of the fact that they support another option more and don't want to help their second preference get over the line at the expense of their first preference.

That is why voting in order of preference would be a better solution ideally.

An Ciarraioch · 01-04-2019 07:29PM

devnull wrote: »

Probably will be a damp squib, you'll have the same tactical voting as last week. This is why you saw the SNP and The Independent Group abstaining against things that they would be supportive of last week.

I think that once again we'll see people abstain from stuff they actually support tonight, because of the fact that they support another option more and don't want to help their second preference get over the line at the expense of their first preference.

That is why voting in order of preference would be a better solution ideally.

SNP are backing Common Market, and Labour are actively whipping for the first three options, suggesting the CU and 2.0 are likely to pass.

Enzokk · 01-04-2019 07:30PM

I don't know who is talking right now but he is making very valid points against the Customs Union. The UK will give way their power in trade to the EU, yet he is for May's deal which is a customs union until at least 2021 and maybe even 2022 when they are out. Maybe the argument can be made that it is not permanent but we know if you want to keep the Irish border open you will either have to isolate NI or you are in the customs union. Back to the start again.

Edit: It was Greg Hands speaking and this sums it up from Ian Dunt,

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1112783941331767301

An Ciarraioch · 01-04-2019 07:30PM

The Tory poll malaise continues:

http://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1112501457188806659

Strazdas · 01-04-2019 07:35PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The Tory poll malaise continues:

http://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1112501457188806659

This doesn't seem to take into account Change UK intend running candidates if there is an election

Enzokk · 01-04-2019 07:38PM

Strazdas wrote: »

This doesn't seem to take into account Change UK intend running candidates if there is an election

I suspect they will only take away support from the Conservatives and UKIP in the main. It would be interesting to see if there is to be an election exactly what happens and how this would reset priorities for the main parties. If the Tories see that they are only losing votes due to not going no-deal Brexit they could pivot that way and abandon the middle ground, or they could move towards the middle and a soft Brexit or even Remain and lose their fringe which caused this to happen.

gooch2k9 · 01-04-2019 07:48PM

Sammy Wilson more worried about what the English voted for than what NI voters did.

DUP will make themselves pariahs in that house in future.

Professor Moriarty · 01-04-2019 07:56PM

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Sammy Wilson more worried about what the English voted for than what NI voters did.

DUP will make themselves pariahs in that house in future.

They're going to abstain on all proposals because reasons. At least they've stopped saying 'No'.

awec · 01-04-2019 08:00PM

What time is the vote?

The tory benches are pretty much empty, are we going to see large scale abstentions?

Edit: vote is now.

Itssoeasy · 01-04-2019 08:07PM

awec wrote: »

What time is the vote?

The tory benches are pretty much empty, are we going to see large scale abstentions?

Voting had started and will go on for thirty minutes. The sitting is suspended. It's a utter farce. I was talking with a friend at the weekend and he's previously been very willing to discuss brexit and the pros and cons of it as he sees it. Before I even said one word to him when I saw him he said "I'm not going to even try to discuss brexit" my point is it's gotten to the point where ever thinking about it makes people annoyed.

uptherebels · 01-04-2019 08:16PM

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Why are there so many in favour of the Customs Union?
I don't see what the is to gain from it as they will lose their vetoes, ability to shape the rules, etc.

When they have limited options and not picking one, means no deal brexit, what do you do?

Loafing Oaf · 01-04-2019 08:16PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Before I even said one word to him when I saw him he said "I'm not going to even try to discuss brexit" my point is it's gotten to the point where ever thinking about it makes people annoyed.

Even cabinet ministers if the BBC's Nick Watt is to be believed...

Strazdas · 01-04-2019 08:17PM

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Why are there so many in favour of the Customs Union?
I don't see what the is to gain from it as they will lose their vetoes, ability to shape the rules, etc.

Anna Soubry says she is opposed to it for this very reason and won't support it or EFTA

Kermit.de.frog · 01-04-2019 08:24PM

Just to note the results won't be given on the votes until sometime after 10.

Imreoir2 · 01-04-2019 08:24PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

If we passed a law stating that you need to spend at least two weeks in Ireland every year to keep your Irish passport we'd bring in a lot cash monies.

Perhaps, but we would make an awful lot of Irish citizens living and working in other countries stateless, not everyone living in the States or Australia who holds an Irish passport can afford, or indeed get the time off work to make a trip back to the auld sod every year.

54and56 · 01-04-2019 08:26PM

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Why are there so many in favour of the Customs Union?
I don't see what the is to gain from it as they will lose their vetoes, ability to shape the rules, etc.

It's called a Pyrrhic victory for "Brexit" i.e. give up a huge amount of valuable items such as influence on decision making, veto capability, rebates, exclusion from the Euro etc etc but in return you get to technically leave only to realise shortly after the leave celebration dies down that in leaving you've actually gove from a strong influential position within the EU to a weak associate who have to take rules handed out by the EU .......... national pride / ego can drive some very strange behaviour

ShooterSF · 01-04-2019 08:30PM

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Remain. Customs Union is leaving but losing your voice.

Not really an option for indicative votes on how to leave though. Which is what the parliament voted for. And if they vote down every option again they'll rightly be ridiculed for it so I'm guessing for a lot of them this is the most palatable of the bunch.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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