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Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,380 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    20silkcut wrote: »
    There are two realities that are uncomfortable in my opinion.
    It looks like the EU will want us to protect the single market by installing a hard border.

    Let’s not call them the EU 26 but the rest of the EU will not be as badly affected by a no deal scenario as ourselves.
    I know we are all united but that is a reality. Those tariffs on Irish beef and Agri food are a desperate reality almost unique to Ireland. I would rather see 100 extensions and meaningful votes than that come to pass.

    There was (I thought) a good article on how it could play out (as regards resolving conflict of protecting the single market in a crash out Brexit while trying to retain an open border with NI) here:
    https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0330/1039471-brexit-no-deal-tony-connelly/
    (probably someone already posted it)

    Our lot are really very good at putting off doing anything about a political problem until tomorrow (which may never come, in Ireland it often doesn't) so would likely accept any old bollox reason put forward for an extension by the UK. So long as it delays the evil day (Brexit), they will be happy even if there is no political resolution in the UK. The rest of the EU might not agree with that and have other priorities causing them to reject certain types or maybe even all types of requests for another extension.

    However if most of the other countries in the EU (that care about Brexit) just want to end it now I think Irish political capital in the EU/council of ministers would be much better used trying to get their support/help dealing with the problems than trying to fight them over it to "save" the UK (current govt. of which does not give a crap about what happens to us [or NI] after Brexit anyway).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,006 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    And EU GDP is 75% less now than in 2017. What does that equate to per week?

    https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth


    So the answer is to shout out loud and divert attention? Ok, show me where the EU stated on a bus (or a billboard or anything) a projection of how a course of action that they voted for in 2017 would not lead to the 75% less GDP growth and I will play your game of whataboutery.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 431 ✭✭ThePanjandrum


    Chris Johns has long been writing the most caustic and acerbic articles about how insane Brexit is.

    I just read yesterday's one, which has been the most-read story on The Irish Times this weekend, and he's warning strongly about the unintended consequences of all these developments and how people who think things are secure stoke up real resentments and all of society's existing stability is undermined. He's definitely on to something here.




    Chris Johns: Has Brexit broken Britain irreparably?


    All of the rhetoric breaks down on the fact that Britain's Fascists supported the Common Market and EU. Oswald Mosley campaigned for it. Facts are so inconvenient, aren't they?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 431 ✭✭ThePanjandrum


    fly_agaric wrote: »
    However if most of the other countries in the EU (that care about Brexit) just want to end it now I think Irish political capital in the EU/council of ministers would be much better used trying to get their support/help dealing with the problems than trying to fight them over it to "save" the UK (current govt. of which does not give a crap about what happens to us [or NI] after Brexit anyway).


    I'm mystified why you think that the UK should care about your well-being while almost everyone here has been saying that you don't care about the UK's. Perhaps you could explain your reasoning.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    20silkcut wrote: »
    There are two realities that are uncomfortable in my opinion.
    It looks like the EU will want us to protect the single market by installing a hard border.

    Let’s not call them the EU 26 but the rest of the EU will not be as badly affected by a no deal scenario as ourselves.
    I know we are all united but that is a reality. Those tariffs on Irish beef and Agri food are a desperate reality almost unique to Ireland. I would rather see 100 extensions and meaningful votes than that come to pass.

    You are right to be concerned if this article in the Irish times is anything to go by-a soft brexit,(if there has to be a brexit!)would be better for everyone.
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/disorderly-brexit-could-cause-loss-of-80-000-irish-jobs-report-warns-1.3838322


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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 43,413 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    I'm mystified why you think that the UK should care about your well-being while almost everyone here has been saying that you don't care about the UK's. Perhaps you could explain your reasoning.
    Who here has said this?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,380 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    I'm mystified why you think that the UK should care about your well-being while almost everyone here has been saying that you don't care about the UK's. Perhaps you could explain your reasoning.

    I can't answer for what "everyone here" has been saying (don't even know as I don't read every post), only for myself. The people here are not the Irish govt. anyway. For myself I don't wish any ill will to the UK. Am certain the Irish govt. doesn't either. As above they will probably be the ones most in favour of extensions if more are sought by the UK whatever the reasons, and whatever the extent of potential damage to the EU that could do after the next European parliament elections.

    Since we (UK/Ireland) are neighbours and share a border, have a lot of connections and are both (for moment) members of the EU I had expected some consideration from the UK alright about how they pursue their Brexit idea might affect us - as have said before I was very badly wrong there.

    Anyway, a "hard" Brexit seems to be coming soon whatever we think. I suppose it is less satisfying [for a Brexit supporter] if it finally comes about (almost) by accident through a series of procedural muck ups and a mess of political infighting than by Theresa May or another great conservative totem telling the EU exactly where to go!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    Who here has said this?

    Nobody actually comes out and says it but if you express any opinion in support of the UK you are ostacized-like me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 750 ✭✭✭Farmer


    Enzokk wrote: »
    ...
    So if the estimates are correct the UK has lost about £360m per week since the Brexit vote due to loss of GDP.

    Not to mention future losses like the £13 Billion p.a.for form filling and administration that Dominic Grieve was trying to tell them about before they shouted him down.

    I'm sure there would be much more in lost efficiency.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,288 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    Nobody actually comes out and says it but if you express any opinion in support of the UK you are ostasized-like me.

    All I have seen are people who support the UK on the basis of unsupportable points, being 'ostrasised'


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,834 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    All of the rhetoric breaks down on the fact that Britain's Fascists supported the Common Market and EU. Oswald Mosley campaigned for it. Facts are so inconvenient, aren't they?

    British Euroscepticism has always been a very peculiar beast. Most far right parties on the continent are not actually opposed to the EU or a European identity (they're far more interested in being anti-non EU immigration and anti-Islam).

    The British far right these days are quite unique in being anti-EU, anti freedom of movement for European citizens and anti-the idea of a 'European identity'.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 233 ✭✭sandbelter


    20silkcut wrote: »
    Those tariffs on Irish beef and Agri food are a desperate reality almost unique to Ireland. I would rather see 100 extensions and meaningful votes than that come to pass.


    This isn't anything that NZ and Australia didn't face in 1973 and they coped by directing their focus on Asia. Ireland will, with adjustment, cope and do the same, Chinese imports of beef are forecast to grow by 24% by 2022 and the Chinese will pay premiums for imported beef.

    Moving out of the UK's orbit is also an opportunity.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    All I have seen are people who support the UK on the basis of unsupportable points, being 'ostrasised'

    I'm not referring to brexit which is totally undefenceable-different points of view if presented in a reasonable manner are good in any discussion-thats not a bad thing-is it?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,288 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    I'm not referring to brexit which is totally undefenceable-different points of view if presented in a reasonable manner are good in any discussion-thats not a bad thing-is it?

    There are many points of view on this thread. I don't see them being treated unreasonably. It is when someone comes in trying to support either side of the argument without presenting fact that it gets fractious.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Enzokk wrote: »
    This is interesting and a little ironic.

    https://twitter.com/CER_EU/status/1111915972632420353

    So if the estimates are correct the UK has lost about £360m per week since the Brexit vote due to loss of GDP.
    The Bank of England reckons it's £800m a week , £40 Bn a year.

    GDP down 2% a year, and a no-deal would mean emergency interest rate hikes.
    Tax year ends in a few days.
    Rates 4.5% and energy bills are going up.

    Austerity isn't over.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Tomorrow's Telegraph claims 10 UK ministers favour a customs union, 13 want a no-deal Brexit, and four are undecided - so whichever way May jumps, the government will literally be split down the middle - GE the only way to maintain unity?

    http://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1112457769825849344


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,132 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    The Bank of England reckons it's £800m a week , £40 Bn a year.

    GDP down 2% a year, and a no-deal would mean emergency interest rate hikes.
    Tax year ends in a few days.
    Rates 4.5% and energy bills are going up.

    Austerity isn't over.

    Unfortunately anything that is not reported in the Telegraph or Express etc. is dismissed now as fake news.

    So the Guardian is off limits for the Brexiteers. Fingers in ears and la la la.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 55,863 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    What time are the indicative votes tomorrow?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Headshot wrote: »
    What time are the indicative votes tomorrow?

    Usually 7, but stand to be corrected!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    fly_agaric wrote: »
    For myself I don't wish any ill will to the UK.
    I have seen many posters saying that they think the best outcome would be a hard Brexit which really hurts the UK.

    Personally, I do not agree with them, I hope we see no Brexit at all.

    But every single poster I have seen wish a Hard Brexit and all the associated unpleasant consequences on Britain has wished it as a teaching moment, a short, sharp shock which teaches people in the UK the real truth.

    Because we don't wish ill on the UK, we wish common sense.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    Nobody actually comes out and says it but if you express any opinion in support of the UK you are ostacized-like me.

    I support the UK.

    I don't support Brexit. Nor do most people in the UK.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Tomorrow's Telegraph claims 10 UK ministers favour a customs union, 13 want a no-deal Brexit
    Ordinarily, you could dismiss this sort of number as nonsense, 13 want to flap their arms and fly to the moon, can't happen so can say any old thing.

    But right now, this is extraordinary. No Deal brexit could happen within a month. 13 of the ministers of Her Majesty's Government want to cripple the United Kingdom for no damned reason at all.

    Amazing.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,422 ✭✭✭trashcan


    I have seen many posters saying that they think the best outcome would be a hard Brexit which really hurts the UK.


    Personally, I do not agree with them, I hope we see no Brexit at all.


    But every single poster I have seen wish a Hard Brexit and all the associated unpleasant consequences on Britain has wished it as a teaching moment, a short, sharp shock which teaches people in the UK the real truth.


    Because we don't wish ill on the UK, we wish common sense.


    I said earlier that I was coming round to the view that Europe should pull the plug. My only reason for saying so is that there seems to be a lot of people over there who are determined not to see sense. I have nothing but sympathy for ordinary British people, who are the ones who will suffer at the end of the day. Of course it would be preferable all round if they cancelled the whole thing, or at least stay in the Single Market/ Cusoms Union. The problem with that is if it happens then it's a recipie for ongoing trouble. There will be massive unrest from the leavers if it's taken away from them now, and you could see the likes of Farage, Mogg, etc, whipping things up into a frenzy, aided and abetted by the gutter press. It may be that the only way to bring enough people to their senses is to crash out. Of course in many ways it will be too late then.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,778 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Ordinarily, you could dismiss this sort of number as nonsense, 13 want to flap their arms and fly to the moon, can't happen so can say any old thing.

    But right now, this is extraordinary. No Deal brexit could happen within a month. 13 of the ministers of Her Majesty's Government want to cripple the United Kingdom for no damned reason at all.

    Amazing.

    It's what you get with a lame duck PM, and the 124k headcases who are the members of the Tory party who will pick the next Tory leader and perhaps PM, once the Parliamentary party whittles it down to 2 candidates. These Cabinet members are playing to that audience. Much like Labour a minority of Brits, and in the case of the Tories a much smaller minority, wield a ridiculous amount of power when selecting both Tory Leader and those who stand for MP in the various constituencies.

    Just look at the 300 odd who voted no confidence in Grieves, crazy stuff.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,291 ✭✭✭dresden8


    If Boris manages to hang on into the last two the membership will vote for him.

    A well known liar, incompetent, charlatan and spoofer of a fraud and the Tories love him.

    Don't see the EU bothering to negotiate with him for the next several years.


  • Posts: 5,094 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    All of the rhetoric breaks down on the fact that Britain's Fascists supported the Common Market and EU. Oswald Mosley campaigned for it. Facts are so inconvenient, aren't they?

    Actually, the vast majority and especially the younger fascists did not. They rejected Mosley on this issue and created the League of Empire Loyalists under AK Chesterton in 1954 to campaign against the breakup of the British Empire. When it was dissolved in 1967 Chesterton used the remaining money to set up the British National Front, which still exists today, self-describes as fascist, racist and Europhobic - and harks back to the glories of Empire. So, speaking of "inconvenient facts" there's your true Brexiteer political genealogy.

    League of Empire Loyalists


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Inquitus wrote: »
    a minority of Brits, and in the case of the Tories a much smaller minority, wield a ridiculous amount of power when selecting both Tory Leader and those who stand for MP in the various constituencies.

    I am not talking about MPs or the Tory leader.

    I am talking about Ministers of Her Majesty's Government, who should know which way is up.

    Yet per the story, 13 of them want the UK to shoot itself in the gut.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,527 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I'm mystified why you think that the UK should care about your well-being while almost everyone here has been saying that you don't care about the UK's. Perhaps you could explain your reasoning.

    Caring about the UK's well-being means opposing Brexit. It's clearer now than ever.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,778 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Actually, the vast majority and especially the younger fascists did not. They rejected Mosley on this issue and created the League of Empire Loyalists under AK Chesterton in 1954 to campaign against the breakup of the British Empire. When it was dissolved in 1967 Chesterton used the remaining money to set up the British National Front, which still exists today, self-describes as fascist, racist, Europhobi c and harks back to the glories of Empire. So speaking of "inconvenient facts" there's your true political genealogy.

    League of Empire Loyalists

    Perhaps he should have said facts are so convenient when you make them up to support your argument...


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 679 ✭✭✭WhiteMan32


    Yesterday, the Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU petition passed 6 millions signatures. Below is a graphic showing how various Brexit-related motions and amendments were voted upon by the MP for the constituency with the highest number of signatures vs. the MP for the constituency with the lowest number of signatures: -

    Petition.jpg


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