Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

RobMc59 · 31-03-2019 01:05PM

I think the NHS charging foreigners before treatment is an absolute disgrace but it seems it's happening now in a hospital local to me.
https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/royal-liverpool-doctors-slam-appalling-16045648

Franz Von Peppercorn · 31-03-2019 01:06PM

Headshot wrote: »

It's an infestation of UKIP members poisoning the association. These people just want to watch the world to burn and will do everything in their power to get what they want.

These people don't see common sense and cannot work their heads around how a no Brexit deal will cause havoc for their economy.

The idea that Brexit is popular only in UKIP or ex UKIP membership is unfounded. It’s half the population and most Tory voters. And the membership of the Conservative party (a tiny fraction of the voters for that party) are even more radical.

20silkcut · 31-03-2019 01:08PM

Headshot wrote: »

I cannot see the EU not providing some kind of extension. The EU does not want to be responsible to no deal brexit and I hope they provide a long extension.

But are the EU 26( minus Ireland) getting close to the stage where no deal is better than endless extensions.
Obviously for us anything other than no deal is preferable.
The EU is seriously side tracked by brexit it is consuming all oxygen, I can see patience wearing thin very soon.

Calina · 31-03-2019 01:33PM

20silkcut wrote: »

But are the EU 26( minus Ireland) getting close to the stage where no deal is better than endless extensions.
Obviously for us anything other than no deal is preferable.
The EU is seriously side tracked by brexit it is consuming all oxygen, I can see patience wearing thin very soon.

There is no such thing as EU26. Ireland is not facilitated by constant extensions either so the only people you serve by suggesting there is a wedge to be driven between Ireland and the other 26 members are the hard Brexiters. It is precisely what they want to achieve - the peeling off off countries they perceive to be expendable. Hence Patel's comments about starving Ireland and general ministerual comments based on the idea that the EU would hang Ireland out to dry. The decision to send hard Brexit supporting Tories to persuade Italy and Poland to vote against any extension.

The objective as such is not Brexit but the dismantling of the EU.

Ireland's interests are served by EU membership and not casting in its lot with English nationalism. As far as Brexit is concerned, its interests are a) no Brexit b) managed Brexit and c) staying in the EU and in relative harmony with other members even in the face of vandalism by the UK. As such any idea or narrative of EU26 excluding Ireland is damaging and not in Ireland's interests regardless of what the basketcase directly to the east of us does in the short term.

There continues to be a narrative in the UK that they can stay and reform the EU from within. They still clearly don't get the meaning of shared sovereignty and collaborative effort and the benefits of consensus building. It is all about the UK's desires. The concept of give a little take a little just doesn't exist. Until they lose the ego, nothing is going to change or improve.

None of that might happen but to be honest they lack political leadership by any measure on both sides of the ideological divide.

The UK is overwhelmed by Brexit and is not coping. Within the EU it is sucking effort, yes but BAU is carrying on. To any great extent, the EU delegated the execution of Brexit to Barnier and carried on with their other priorities. It has not sucked all oxygen from the EU.

Shelga · 31-03-2019 01:42PM

20silkcut wrote: »

But are the EU 26( minus Ireland) getting close to the stage where no deal is better than endless extensions.
Obviously for us anything other than no deal is preferable.
The EU is seriously side tracked by brexit it is consuming all oxygen, I can see patience wearing thin very soon.

It's hard to know what way they are leaning. Tusk seems to have genuine compassion and concern for the people who voted Remain (and for the Leavers who were lied to, to be fair).

But constant extensions, and having the risk of 70 UKIP-esque candidates contest the elections, is a real worry. Sharp shock could be for the best, long-term now.

As usual, the media in the UK is ignoring the fact that they are completely at the mercy of whatever the EU council decides, and acting like a long extension is inevitable, just because they have decided that's what they want. But the same questions remain. They can't agree on any other course of action. If there is still no majority for anything after more indicative votes next week, surely the probability of a no-deal exit is extremely high by that point.

WomanSkirtFan8 · 31-03-2019 02:18PM

lawred2 wrote: »

That's very sad really. That's gutter level. Political party members acting like bar stool louts and bigots.

Conservatism at this stage has gone from fiscal responsibility and pro business all the way through to just basic racism.

ouch that was painful to watch. There is one of the main causes of this whole shambolic saga too many Brits believing or willing to Believe the lies of their own media. Disgraceful and despicable behaviour and downright delusional.

Spook_ie · 31-03-2019 02:59PM

lawred2 wrote: »

That's very sad really. That's gutter level. Political party members acting like bar stool louts and bigots.

Conservatism at this stage has gone from fiscal responsibility and pro business all the way through to just basic racism.

Dunno his voting record on allowing EU nationals to remain is suspect enough

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10243/dominic_grieve/beaconsfield/divisions?policy=6764

trashcan · 31-03-2019 03:01PM

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

ouch that was painful to watch. There is one of the main causes of this whole shambolic saga too many Brits believing or willing to Believe the lies of their own media. Disgraceful and despicable behaviour and downright delusional.

Kind of ironic, given their obsession with WW2 that so many of them now are beginning to show Nazi tendancies. As Billy Bragg once wrote " They salute the foes their fathers fought by waving their right arms in the air."

I'm kind of coming round to the view of kick them out too.

marno21 · 31-03-2019 03:42PM

trashcan wrote: »

I'm kind of coming round to the view of kick them out too.

I think a lot of people would be of this view only for the collateral damage it would cause to NI and to a lesser extent Scotland.

Too many people there having to suffer as a result of blind ideological English nationalism

Water John · 31-03-2019 03:44PM

A Soft Brexit (CU) along with a confirmatory Ref would tick the boxes for the various wings of the Lb Party. I think it would be the best possible for us and the EU too, in the circumstances. Leadsom & Co would have a melt down.
Might have to have a GE first.

Farmer · 31-03-2019 03:51PM

You'd imagine that a good chairman wouldn't tolerate that kind of carry on

An Ciarraioch · 31-03-2019 03:59PM

More info from yesterday's Mail on Sunday opinion poll - the Brexit Party are on 6%:

http://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1112361038870179841

31-03-2019 04:03PM

It's also not nice to sacrifice the 16 million who support EU membership. But under no circumstances can the EU accept a "you can have your cake and eat it" approach just because so many people are in favour of EU membership. The EU is right to step very far back and let the British sort out their own understanding of history/their place in the world today. The English made their myths; they alone will have to face up to their consequences today.

Of course, like all rightwing populist movements the Brexiteers need their scapegoats so the Europhobes will still successfully blame the EU for everything - but the history books will be merciless about how that society allowed things to get this bad. A member of parliament has already been murdered for her beliefs, and that didn't even give pause for thought. The rhetoric, everything: extremism and scaoegoating is the new normal (very, very many of their newspaper headlines would make Goebbels happy).

Remember, too, that while Britain refused to join the ECSC/EEC in the early 1950s, once it realised what a failure EFTA had been for Britain, it came back cap in hand looking to join the EEC. Loads of really, really poor political miscalculations in Britain's relationship with the EU - most of which is tied up in a popular addiction to an imperial/world power status that is no more. They have been fed so many lies that to face up to reality is to take on their very sense of identity. Far easier to keep the lie/scapegoat going and make it as big as possible to justify everything.

Who will be the Sophie Scholl of Britain?

Enzokk · 31-03-2019 05:34PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

More info from yesterday's Mail on Sunday opinion poll - the Brexit Party are on 6%:

http://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1112361038870179841

Seems to me that the problem for the Conservatives is that Cameron only made the referendum a manifesto pledge to head off UKIP taking votes from the Tories. They then lurched further right after the result but seeing that there are still sensible politicians in charge they didn't press the button to implode.

But their problem is that UKIP lurched further right and the moderates from UKIP have formed their own party. This seems to indicate that the Tories will lose the most and this is now played out in the polls. Just wait until they have to start discussing manifestos and the Tories have to stand behind their handling of the NHS, Education, Justice and see their vote disappear.

Water John · 31-03-2019 06:12PM

People only take squeezing economically and socially for so long. Austerity in a short sharp dose to right an economy is tolerable, but after a while they need hope on the horizon. The Tories have used it as a standard platform at this point, but people haven't made the link, it's a Tory choice.

20silkcut · 31-03-2019 06:15PM

Calina wrote: »

There is no such thing as EU26. Ireland is not facilitated by constant extensions either so the only people you serve by suggesting there is a wedge to be driven between Ireland and the other 26 members are the hard Brexiters. It is precisely what they want to achieve - the peeling off off countries they perceive to be expendable. Hence Patel's comments about starving Ireland and general ministerual comments based on the idea that the EU would hang Ireland out to dry. The decision to send hard Brexit supporting Tories to persuade Italy and Poland to vote against any extension.

The objective as such is not Brexit but the dismantling of the EU.

Ireland's interests are served by EU membership and not casting in its lot with English nationalism. As far as Brexit is concerned, its interests are a) no Brexit b) managed Brexit and c) staying in the EU and in relative harmony with other members even in the face of vandalism by the UK. As such any idea or narrative of EU26 excluding Ireland is damaging and not in Ireland's interests regardless of what the basketcase directly to the east of us does in the short term.

There continues to be a narrative in the UK that they can stay and reform the EU from within. They still clearly don't get the meaning of shared sovereignty and collaborative effort and the benefits of consensus building. It is all about the UK's desires. The concept of give a little take a little just doesn't exist. Until they lose the ego, nothing is going to change or improve.

None of that might happen but to be honest they lack political leadership by any measure on both sides of the ideological divide.

The UK is overwhelmed by Brexit and is not coping. Within the EU it is sucking effort, yes but BAU is carrying on. To any great extent, the EU delegated the execution of Brexit to Barnier and carried on with their other priorities. It has not sucked all oxygen from the EU.

There are two realities that are uncomfortable in my opinion.
It looks like the EU will want us to protect the single market by installing a hard border.

Let’s not call them the EU 26 but the rest of the EU will not be as badly affected by a no deal scenario as ourselves.
I know we are all united but that is a reality. Those tariffs on Irish beef and Agri food are a desperate reality almost unique to Ireland. I would rather see 100 extensions and meaningful votes than that come to pass.

Water John · 31-03-2019 06:17PM

Don't mind the rhetoric as long as Tusk wins out. The UK must turn up with some plan, at least an effort at one. Don't see Bercow allowing them to put another variation for a vote.

Farmer · 31-03-2019 06:26PM

20silkcut wrote: »

..... I would rather see 100 extensions and meaningful votes than that come to pass.

Might be easier for them too. Ivan Rogers on a no deal Brexit. Trade has to be sorted out eventually

https://mobile.twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1112345990865059840

Edit Sorry, second video on page. I cant link to it directly somehow

lawred2 · 31-03-2019 06:32PM

Spook_ie wrote: »

Dunno his voting record on allowing EU nationals to remain is suspect enough

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10243/dominic_grieve/beaconsfield/divisions?policy=6764

And yet that still wasn't quite enough

Scoondal · 31-03-2019 06:47PM

Good Friday agreement is reccognised internationally. UK cannot do anything that will affect that. GB can leave EU but NI is always subject to Good Friday Agreement. We voted for this, NI and ROI. UK cannot break their international agreement.

Enzokk · 31-03-2019 06:53PM

This is interesting and a little ironic.

https://twitter.com/CER_EU/status/1111915972632420353

So if the estimates are correct the UK has lost about £360m per week since the Brexit vote due to loss of GDP.

VinLieger · 31-03-2019 06:54PM

Scoondal wrote: »

Good Friday agreement is reccognised internationally. UK cannot do anything that will affect that. GB can leave EU but NI is always subject to Good Friday Agreement. We voted for this, NI and ROI. UK cannot break their international agreement.

The absolutely can if they really wanted to, ever heard the phrase perfidious albion?

WomanSkirtFan8 · 31-03-2019 07:03PM

trashcan wrote: »

Kind of ironic, given their obsession with WW2 that so many of them now are beginning to show Nazi tendancies. As Billy Bragg once wrote " They salute the foes their fathers fought by waving their right arms in the air."

I'm kind of coming round to the view of kick them out too.

Yeah the irony is unbelievable alright. They deserve to be thrown out of the EU at this rate

Zubeneschamali · 31-03-2019 07:09PM

Enzokk wrote: »

So if the estimates are correct the UK has lost about £360m per week since the Brexit vote due to loss of GDP.

They can take it from the NHS, I think I saw that on a red bus one time.

Mr.Nice Guy · 31-03-2019 07:21PM

I thought this was interesting. Emma DeSouza who campaigns on citizenship rights in NI on the UK government making changes that could affect the GFA.

https://twitter.com/EmmandJDeSouza/status/1112320347515375616

She also says it means Irish citizens north of the border will have to denounce British citizenship to keep their EU citizenship.

Wouldn't this serve to drive more people, including some unionists with dual nationality, towards supporting Irish unity?

Can't imagine even the DUP would want this if this is accurate.

Jim2007 · 31-03-2019 08:03PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

She also says it means Irish citizens north of the border will have to denounce British citizenship to keep their EU citizenship.

Wouldn't this serve to drive more people, including some unionists with dual nationality, towards supporting Irish unity?

Can't imagine even the DUP would want this if this is accurate.

This is rambling nonsense. There is no such thing as an EEA citizen to start with. And the rest is just standard treatment for dual citizens in all European countries.

Also if you pop along to the DFA website you will find two forms - one to revoke Irish citizenship and the other to retrieve it. Specially designed to deal with these kind of situation - file revoke on day one, get acknowledgment for DFA to show anyone that needs to know and the following day file the retrieval... It has been used for years by Irish people in countries that don't allow dual citizenship

CrabRevolution · 31-03-2019 08:14PM

I'm not quite convinced either. I can't imagine it's within the UK's power to define an EEA citizen, whether they're based in the UK or not.

Headshot · 31-03-2019 08:27PM

Farmer wrote: »

Might be easier for them too. Ivan Rogers on a no deal Brexit. Trade has to be sorted out eventually

https://mobile.twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1112345990865059840

Edit Sorry, second video on page. I cant link to it directly somehow

I watched the whole video, it was a very interesting watch, I felt the 1hr plus passed in no time.

brickster69 · 31-03-2019 08:32PM

Enzokk wrote: »

This is interesting and a little ironic.

https://twitter.com/CER_EU/status/1111915972632420353

So if the estimates are correct the UK has lost about £360m per week since the Brexit vote due to loss of GDP.

And EU GDP is 75% less now than in 2017. What does that equate to per week?

https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth

31-03-2019 08:37PM

Chris Johns has long been writing the most caustic and acerbic articles about how insane Brexit is.

I just read yesterday's one, which has been the most-read story on The Irish Times this weekend, and he's warning strongly about the unintended consequences of all these developments and how people who think things are secure stoke up real resentments and all of society's existing stability is undermined. He's definitely on to something here.

... The chances of a cliff-edge departure next week are high. It looks like a 50-50 call to me. Amid all of the noise of last week, not enough attention was focused on the fact that 160 British MPs voted for a no-deal Brexit.
That’s a quarter of Britain’s elected representatives actively seeking all of the chaos that would accompany such a rupture with the EU.

At best, it represents a simple misjudgment. At worst, it looks like an embrace of revolution – if not anarchy – so that hidden agendas can subsequently be revealed. The scary fact is that these wannabe revolutionaries could well succeed.

The short term is unpredictable but the longer term outlook is reasonably clear. Whichever way Brexit goes, the divisions in British society and culture are not going to be quickly healed....

Not all Leave voters were fascists or extremists of any kind but it is pretty clear that all of Britain’s fascists did vote for Brexit.

These kinds of fissures, once opened up, take a long time to close and often lead to a crisis of one kind or another.

The great financial crisis is sometimes described as a “Minsky moment”, named after the great economist who warned that long periods of economic stability often prompt and conceal ever-increasing risky behaviours.

People feel more comfortable taking ever bigger risks because of that stability. That risk-taking can pass a point when crisis becomes inevitable: the system becomes too fragile; vulnerable to the smallest shocks.

Maybe it’s the same with political stability. People feel comfortable taking ever extreme views because the consequences of doing so are not obvious, at least for a while. As things remain superficially stable, extremists become ever more emboldened.

Today, with the added amplification of social media, Britain feels more extremist than I can personally recall. On this line of thinking, people won’t retreat from their deeply held positions until a crisis forces them to do so.

Chris Johns: Has Brexit broken Britain irreparably?

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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