Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

ThePanjandrum · 31-03-2019 01:31AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Brexit polling opposes no deal, but gives a margin-of-error lead for a second referendum and revoking Article 50:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112116730963341315

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112116959599099904

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112117322087567361

Before you get too excited I would just point out that these polls were carried out by Deltapoll.

briany · 31-03-2019 01:32AM

I think the EU position should grant another month's extension up to 22/05 and say to May "if you don't come back to us before this date with a way to decisively answer the question of the UK's membership, then you are out."

The 12th of April just isn't enough time, imo.

tuxy · 31-03-2019 02:18AM

briany wrote: »

I think the EU position should grant another month's extension up to 22/05 and say to May "if you don't come back to us before this date with a way to decisively answer the question of the UK's membership, then you are out."

The 12th of April just isn't enough time, imo.

I think the 12 of April was picked at it's as long as they can hold off on preparations for the MEP elections. An extension to 22nd May wouldn't work as if they revoked article 50 at the last minute how could they possibly hold elections the following day?

Mezcita · 31-03-2019 02:54AM

briany wrote: »

I think the EU position should grant another month's extension up to 22/05 and say to May "if you don't come back to us before this date with a way to decisively answer the question of the UK's membership, then you are out."

The 12th of April just isn't enough time, imo.

Disagree. The EU has to draw a line in the sand on this. Another one month extension would obviously be spun as a ''win'' via the UK press as a sign that the EU is about to buckle. Next thing you know we could be talking about a two year extension. All of a sudden you could potentially have more UK anti EU MEP's working in conjunction with their Italian and French counterparts to subvert the whole project. It's bad for the EU's long term interests.

I'm in the same boat as previous posters. The UK simply has to leave at this stage. Because only when the harsh realities of this decision are felt by people within the UK will they realise what exactly has happened. Living here for the last few years has simply made me realise that the UK is broken and they only way they can possibly begin to fix themselves is via an event which affects those people who have been blaming the EU for their national problems.

AlmightyCushion · 31-03-2019 03:00AM

briany wrote: »

I think the EU position should grant another month's extension up to 22/05 and say to May "if you don't come back to us before this date with a way to decisively answer the question of the UK's membership, then you are out."

The 12th of April just isn't enough time, imo.

They've had 2 years which is plenty of time. What will another month accomplish.

Anteayer · 31-03-2019 03:39AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I have way too much sympathy and respect for the decent British that marched last week to wish a hard Brexit on the UK.

It's sad to see it happening but it's looking increasingly inevitable. Most of us have friends and relatives in the UK or have great experiences of the more outward looking, positive, pragmatic parts of English society.

I mean we've screwed up and horrible mutual history but we're still neighbours and very interconnected at all sorts of levels, so it is painful to watch.

It's a country that's divided by a very toxic argument and unfortunately it's a mess that only they can resolve, however long that takes.

If a chaotic mess happens, I think you're looking at a hard road of serious economic consequences and political turmoil that could take a decade or more to get through. I'd hope though that a more positive England (and UK) eventually comes out the other side. It's a crisis of identity politics and unfortunately, those tend to be irrational and painful.

Also the only leaders I'm seeing emerging in the political arena who could bring the country back together again and way off having any power base yet. So it could be too late to save them from a crash out.

Peregrinus · 31-03-2019 05:08AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Before you get too excited I would just point out that these polls were carried out by Deltapoll.

Your point being? Is there evidence of a problem with Deltapoll (where "problem" does not include "somebody doesn't like their findings")?

Peregrinus · 31-03-2019 05:09AM

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Apparently Paris is increasingly hostile to the U.K.

But it’s the commission that will agree on extensions.

Nope, it's the Council. Unanimously. Art 50 requirement, so can't be finessed.

Role of the Commission is confined to providing advice and (probably) a recommendation.

Nody · 31-03-2019 05:18AM

Sam Russell wrote: »

The Euro problem could be sorted by the GB£ being hard pegged to the Euro, so the UK keeps the GB£ but it is really a Euro currency, which is how the Danish and Swedish Kroner work.

Sorry but the Swedish krona is a free floating currency and not pegged to the euro in any way. The SEK to EUR ratio for joining the euro is pegged at around 7 SEK to the euro (i.e. Sweden would need to show a stable exchange rate in that region for two years in case of joining the euro zone ala Lithuania etc went through) but currently trade around 10.4 SEK to the euro.

Peregrinus · 31-03-2019 05:19AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I wouldn't be that pessimistic about EU elections. An awful lot of people seem more vocal about being pro EU at the moment in the UK. I get the sense that many Brexiteers have been put back in their box.

Plus, the Brexit forces are in some disarray. UKIP, which has the strongest Brexit brand, has suffered a huge exodus of party members with experience of running (and winning) campaigns, sitting on committees, standing on doorsteps, organising, etc. These have been replaced by a motley crew of conspiracy theorists, bigots, bullies and pound shop fascists who have no experience and probably no aptitude for running an election campaign. Plus, the party is all but bankrupt; the kitty's empty.

Some of the experienced Brexiters have migrated to the Tories, where they occupy themselves in intensifying the divisions in an already hopelessly divided party. This does not make for electoral success. Other will gravitate to Farage's new Brexit Party, but no way is that ready for an election, plus it has its own whiff of Islamophobia about it.

Brexiters vary between the angry and the demoralised. It remains to be seen whether anger will do more to promote Brexiter turnout than demoralisation does to reduce it but, however many turn out, I think the vote will be split three ways and, even with PR, this is not going to work out well for them.

Remainer voters are probably enthused; they sense a tide flowing with them. But the problem with them is who to vote for? Neither of the majors will adopt a Remain stance, or even a stance which strongly advocates a soft Brexit. The Lib Dems seem to be unable to hoover up the Remain vote in the way that logic would suggest they should, and however well the Greens do I can't see them going in the 2019 elections what UKIP did in the 2014 elections.

swampgas · 31-03-2019 08:12AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I wouldn't be that pessimistic about EU elections. An awful lot of people seem more vocal about being pro EU at the moment in the UK. I get the sense that many Brexiteers have been put back in their box.

Perhaps there are more pro EU voices being heard now, but the political system is still much the same. Most of the press is still driving the anti-EU agenda. The BBC is still failing miserably to hold the liars to account. The polls haven't moved very far since the referendum.

The PM is impervious to reason, won't change her approach and won't step down. The leader of the opposition seems to want a hard Brexit himself but simply won't admit it, and yet is still in place. His supporters seem to have a blind spot where the EU is concerned.

I don't see the UK political system as fixable in the short term. The fact that a new political party is emerging (TIG/Change UK) is IMO a good sign, but it's too little too late to deal with the fact that the UK has run out of time. Brexit simply cannot be avoided now.

Zubeneschamali · 31-03-2019 08:40AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Plus, the Brexit forces are in some disarray.
Remainer voters are probably enthused; they sense a tide flowing with them. But the problem with them is who to vote for? Neither of the majors will adopt a Remain stance, or even a stance which strongly advocates a soft Brexit.

But it is quite clear that the Tories are a much more Brexity party than Labour, who are all Common Market 2.0, CU and referendum talk in policy docs.

listermint · 31-03-2019 08:41AM

Anteayer wrote: »

It's sad to see it happening but it's looking increasingly inevitable. Most of us have friends and relatives in the UK or have great experiences of the more outward looking, positive, pragmatic parts of English society.

I mean we've screwed up and horrible mutual history but we're still neighbours and very interconnected at all sorts of levels, so it is painful to watch.

It's a country that's divided by a very toxic argument and unfortunately it's a mess that only they can resolve, however long that takes.

If a chaotic mess happens, I think you're looking at a hard road of serious economic consequences and political turmoil that could take a decade or more to get through. I'd hope though that a more positive England (and UK) eventually comes out the other side. It's a crisis of identity politics and unfortunately, those tend to be irrational and painful.

Also the only leaders I'm seeing emerging in the political arena who could bring the country back together again and way off having any power base yet. So it could be too late to save them from a crash out.

I'd be on the otherside

I'm hopeful for a crash out and Scotland to finally break away. It has been England's ability to control the countries closest to it that allows it the retain this air of superiority. It's engrained in vast swathes of the populace. It's not minorities . Exceptionalism at its grimmest.

The UK needs a sharp dramatic shock to the system. It needs to know its place in the world and that it's had to be a deal maker and not a deal dictator

McGiver · 31-03-2019 09:19AM

Sam Russell wrote:

The Euro problem could be sorted by the GBÂ£ being hard pegged to the Euro, so the UK keeps the GBÂ£ but it is really a Euro currency, which is how the Danish and Swedish Kroner work.

Technical note.

DKK is pegged to the EUR via ERM II (prerequisite for EUR adoption), but doesn't progress to EUR adoption as Denmark have agreed an opt-out from this. However, DKK is a quasi Euro currency which translates into a very limited control over monetary policy available to the Danish government. It's basically Euro but looks more Danish.

SEK isn't pegged to the EUR, it's free floating, and that's because Sweden never entered ERM II. This is the only way how to avoid the adoption of the Euro in the absence of an opt-out, simply by not entering the ERM II. Euro adoption requires at least 2 year participation in the ERM II. Hence Swedish government has full control over monetary policy.

So I think you wanted to say that GBP could go the DKK route i.e. Nominally Keeping their currency but practically losing their monetary policy sovereignty by pegging it to the euro in very narrow range. This would satisfy the people who care about union Jack, pound sterling and imperial system though - they typically have no idea about economy or monetary policy. I think this would be somewhat similar to the Danish situation.

woohoo!!! · 31-03-2019 09:20AM

I've much more sympathy for Scotland and NI, whose wishes are being ignored. I've zero sympathy for the politics of it all, their system is rotten and broken. Too many safe seats. May is only interested in getting her way, to save the Tory party. It's clear that they need cross party consensus to salvage something and there's no guarantee a GE will solve anything. The EU will probably and reluctantly accept that for now the UK is a lost cause and it's certainly not their responsibility to help the Tories, the ones who caused and continue to cause the mess.

Fr Tod Umptious · 31-03-2019 09:41AM

listermint wrote: »

I'd be on the otherside

I'm hopeful for a crash out and Scotland to finally break away. It has been England's ability to control the countries closest to it that allows it the retain this air of superiority. It's engrained in vast swathes of the populace. It's not minorities . Exceptionalism at its grimmest.

The UK needs a sharp dramatic shock to the system. It needs to know its place in the world and that it's had to be a deal maker and not a deal dictator

A bit like NI just because Scotland had a majority Remain vote does not necessarily mean that they want to break form the UK.

And as hard as decoupling 40+ years of EU membership has been can you imagine the pain of trying to decouple 300+ years of The Act of Union.

McGiver · 31-03-2019 09:45AM

Deleted User wrote:

This. I'm of the same mind for a long time now. The best case scenario would be for all the hard Brexiteers and rightwing ideologues to be in government making decisions/having their bluff called each and every day. Force them to discredit themselves and the decades of anti-EU scapegoating propaganda of the British media and political class. Otherwise they will be on the outside bringing down everybody else Ã la Paisley for 40 years.

I'm not sure and there's one important aspect which I think the EU27 are surely aware of and hence do not fancy the UK crashing out.

I agree with all that has been said, but think about this: UK crashes out of the EU, the oligarch funded media continue to blame the EU, HMG continues to blame the EU, population becomes even more deluded and eurosceptic, they vote for/let Brexiteers running the show, they completely deintegrate UK from Europe, jobs are lost, unemployment rises, more working class people get angry, and shift further right, UK turns into quasi authoritarian country whilst corrupted Brexiteers dismantle the welfare state, privatise the NHS and all services and sign hugely disadvantageous FTA with the US. UK is turned into deregulated tax haven US vassal state controlled by US corporations.

Even if the shift to the authoritarian/hybrid system doesn't happen and UK just becomes a US vassal state, this is absolutely not something EU would welcome - I would say it would be an existential threat to it.

Tell me how · 31-03-2019 09:52AM

McGiver wrote: »

I'm not sure and there's one important aspect which I think the EU27 are surely aware of and hence do not fancy the UK crashing out.

I agree with all that has been said, but think about this: UK crashes out of the EU, the oligarch funded media continue to blame the EU, HMG continues to blame the EU, population becomes even more deluded and eurosceptic, they vote for/let Brexiteers running the show, they completely deintegrate UK from Europe, jobs are lost, unemployment rises, more working class people get angry, and shift further right, UK turns into quasi authoritarian country whilst corrupted Brexiteers dismantle the welfare state, privatise the NHS and all services and sign hugely disadvantageous FTA with the US. UK is turned into deregulated tax haven US vassal state controlled by US corporations.

Even if the shift to the authoritarian/hybrid system doesn't happen and UK just becomes a US vassal state, this is absolutely not something EU would welcome - I would say it would be an existential threat to it.

I too am fearful the impact a wounded UK will have once outside the EU.

They will be chief protagonists in supporting nationalist movements in other countries. The day after they leave, I expect them to greet any news if unrest in other EU countries with a claim that they too should leave and join the UK in a post-EU amalgamation of sorts.

If they leave, expect to see Farage et al at anti-EU demonstrations in several countries.

Akrasia · 31-03-2019 09:54AM

Strazdas wrote: »

People seem to be ignoring too that there's no guarantee of a long extension even if the UK request one. The EU might refuse the request in 12 days' time, especially if they think May or her government are acting in bad faith.

May opposed the holding of indicative votes and her government said they could ignore the results if they wanted. This was after the EU strongly advising the UK to come up with positive proposals for exiting the EU.

May is antagonising the EU 27 with every move she makes. Her political capital is in the red and her credit score is appalling. If there is a solution to this crisis, it won't come from Theresa May, it will come in spite of her

lawred2 · 31-03-2019 10:00AM

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

A bit like NI just because Scotland had a majority Remain vote does not necessarily mean that they want to break form the UK.

And as hard as decoupling 40+ years of EU membership has been can you imagine the pain of trying to decouple 300+ years of The Act of Union.

Well they came bloody close only a few years ago during relative 'peace time'.. and now it has become even more clear to the Scots how little their voice matters in that toxic 'union'.

A pathway back into the cooperative EU will provide for a far better future for Scots than remaining in the self excluded UK.

Akrasia · 31-03-2019 10:12AM

lawred2 wrote: »

Well they came bloody close only a few years ago during relative 'peace time'.. and now it has become even more clear to the Scots how little their voice matters in that toxic 'union'.

A pathway back into the cooperative EU will provide for a far better future for Scots than remaining in the self excluded UK.

If NI vote to unify with the republic, its unlikely to just be them tacking themselves onto the existing republic. I think we would need to incorporate a new state with a new constitution. If Scotland leave their Union around the same time could we see somethink like a federation of celtic nations forming from 2 or 3 independent nations who share such close cultural and economic relations. All mad speculation but there could be lots of benefits and it could soften the transition for both Ireland and Scotland

Peregrinus · 31-03-2019 10:14AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But it is quite clear that the Tories are a much more Brexity party than Labour, who are all Common Market 2.0, CU and referendum talk in policy docs.

Both the major parties are Brexit parties, the Tories merely tending - under the current junta, at any rate - to favour a harder Brexit. Neither is a comfortable home for a remainer.

Water John · 31-03-2019 10:20AM

It's the Council not the Commission that will grant or not any extension.
Id'be waiting until Monday to see a clearer picture. Sadly May probably won't pick up the ball, possibly offered to her by the HoC.

nice_guy80 · 31-03-2019 10:32AM

I don't think we can afford to take NI

We've enough problems as it is

woohoo!!! · 31-03-2019 10:38AM

If we see some semblance of sanity taking shape in HoC, there may be a way forward the the EU27 can live with. But it'll still require May to commit to something different politically. The uncertainty is toxic.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 31-03-2019 10:45AM

Akrasia wrote: »

If NI vote to unify with the republic, its unlikely to just be them tacking themselves onto the existing republic. I think we would need to incorporate a new state with a new constitution. If Scotland leave their Union around the same time could we see somethink like a federation of celtic nations forming from 2 or 3 independent nations who share such close cultural and economic relations. All mad speculation but there could be lots of benefits and it could soften the transition for both Ireland and Scotland

You guys are really going over the top here. Unionism won’t go away. The cultural relations between Scotland and Ireland are fairly weak.

31-03-2019 10:59AM

nice_guy80 wrote: »

I don't think we can afford to take NI

Once the English can't afford to subsidise the remnant of its Irish colony by over €12 billion per annum (i.e. by much more than their net EU contribution), and make no mistake but financially and politically the English will be forced to sell their Pied Noirs in Ireland out, any costs of reunification will be significantly less than people are saying. We will have no English handout of note to replace. And strategically, an all-Ireland state in the EU would win financial support from the EU. The Catholic French and Spaniards would finally have the Elizabethans surrounded!

Call me Al · 31-03-2019 11:01AM

Akrasia wrote: »

If NI vote to unify with the republic, its unlikely to just be them tacking themselves onto the existing republic. I think we would need to incorporate a new state with a new constitution. If Scotland leave their Union around the same time could we see somethink like a federation of celtic nations forming from 2 or 3 independent nations who share such close cultural and economic relations. All mad speculation but there could be lots of benefits and it could soften the transition for both Ireland and Scotland

I think this would be a terrible idea. Bad enough getting "ownership" of 1 million head-the-balls (I know I know... it's an exaggeration) across the border, without adding in a further 2 million Scottish brexiteers pining for Queen and country.

mattser · 31-03-2019 11:02AM

nice_guy80 wrote: »

I don't think we can afford to take NI

We've enough problems as it is

We can't afford it for sure. Some of don't want it in any case.

Shelga · 31-03-2019 11:14AM

It sounds like it will come down to: will the EU be willing to let the UK crash out with no deal, rather than granting endless extensions that gradually damage the EU long-term.

If there was no deal, how long would it be truly terrible for the UK?

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Comments