Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Imreoir2 · 30-03-2019 08:26PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Labour can't get a majority no matter what they do. Like most, I'd have been more of a Labour type before all of this. Now, I just see nonsense.

The Monarchy would do better than any of them.

An absolute monarchy can't be a member of the EU, thats why Vatican City is not allowed to join.

Water John · 30-03-2019 08:30PM

Is the Pope a King, is Monaco out or in?

Akrasia · 30-03-2019 09:00PM

Water John wrote: »

Is the Pope a King, is Monaco out or in?

Monaco is not a member of the EU but it is in the customs union and on the council of Europe

An Ciarraioch · 30-03-2019 09:03PM

Akrasia wrote: »

Monaco is not a member of the EU but it is in the customs union and on the council of Europe

Has been part of a customs union with France since 1865, while Andorra reached an agreement with the EU in 1991.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andorra–European_Union_relations

http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-files/monaco/france-and-monaco/

Loafing Oaf · 30-03-2019 09:22PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

An absolute monarchy can't be a member of the EU, thats why Vatican City is not allowed to join.

That's hardly fair, the pope is democratically chosen. Okay the electorate is fairly restrictive:P

Capt'n Midnight · 30-03-2019 09:32PM

Water John wrote: »

What majority did the Tories have prior to the 2017 GE? Numbers were small.
Not enough to take it out of the grip of the ERG. The DUP have only been a sideshow as they objected to the backstop. The ERG would have other issues and would not have supported the present Deal.
May calling the election was a big error but we would still be in the same place.

In the last two elections the Tories got

2015 36.9% 11,334,226 votes 330 seats - so a majority of 10
2017 42.4% 13,636,684 votes 317 seats
so 5.5% more of the vote translated into 13 less seats, because FPTP or magic

Labour went from 30.4% of the vote to 40.0% and got just 4 more seats.
More people vote for Labour in 2017 than Tory 2015, but there was a higher turnout.

So the two biggest parties got a combined 15% bigger share of the vote but that resulted in less than 2% change in their representation in the House of Commons.

Since most Tory seats are safe seats the party holds absolute power over most MP's by the simple act of deseelection.

CBA looking it up, but in a recent election 22 million votes were wasted compared to the system we use. They were either surplus votes or votes for canidates that didn't finsh second. Here those votes would have been redistributed and may, or may not have changed the result.

BTW The ads for Alternative Voting in the UK seemed to say the result would always be changed, small wonder it failed. Like the wording on the referendum it seemed to be calculated to provide a particular outcome that neutral words wouldn't have

Deleted User wrote: »

If that GE had not been called, May's deal would have most likely passed (just) as they had an absolute majority and the hard Brexiteers would have insufficient numbers to block it.

May would have been able to threaten the ERG members with going to the DUP instead ( giving a majority of 18 ) , deselection, or an election were Labour could have won.

Instead she lost the election, she called her own bluff there.
And the DUP that could have been ignored otherwise dug their heels in over the backstop.

Yes she got 5.5% more of the vote. 2,302,458 more votes than 2015
but was 533 voters short of an overall majority Ha Ha !

And that's why she was an ejit for calling for a new election because she knew how FPTP works and that the UK government , like the US one is decided mostly on key marginals. Good or bad weather has a huge effect on close votes in such systems.

Water John · 30-03-2019 10:23PM

In effect May went from a poor position, forma workable majority POV, to a poorer one, but not that dramatic.

RobertKK · 30-03-2019 10:35PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tim Shipman really appears to be taking the hump over the backstop:

http://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1112025988811112450

The problem for some Brexiteers is little Ireland is seen as getting in the way.
It was suppose to be the big boys fighting it out and the UK holding all the cards, but they are finding it embarrassing that Ireland is a lot more powerful than they thought...due to the EU they want to exit.

Leroy42 · 30-03-2019 10:43PM

RobertKK wrote: »

The problem for some Brexiteers is little Ireland is seen as getting in the way.
It was suppose to be the big boys fighting it out and the UK holding all the cards, but they are finding it embarrassing that Ireland is a lot more powerful than they thought...due to the EU they want to exit.

But in reality it isn't even Ireland that is the problem. Its the EU rules. Ireland just happens to be where the fantasy meets the reality in the most easy to understand way.

But in so many other areas, seemingly small but nonetheless important areas, the UK are facing multiple 'Irelands'.

Custom checks, passport controls, regulations, medicine approval boards, data sharing, FoM, banking and international finance, aviation, drivers licences, chemicals...the list is almost endless.

It makes a simple narrative to blame it all on Ireland, but if the backstop had not been the problem then the myriad of other issues would have tripped them up (and did to be fair).

Water John · 30-03-2019 10:46PM

It isn't so much us, it's anyone who isn't them. That xenophobic streak is in there if you scratch many of them.
A friend was telling me yesterday of relations who have lived in the UK for 30 years. Very good friends with their neighbour. Was talking to them the day after the Ref and was lamenting the result. The neighbour said he voted Leave. The relation said what about me, I don't know if I will be allowed stay. 'Go back to your own country' was the reply.

Call me Al · 30-03-2019 11:00PM

RobertKK wrote: »

The problem for some Brexiteers is little Ireland is seen as getting in the way.
It was suppose to be the big boys fighting it out and the UK holding all the cards, but they are finding it embarrassing that Ireland is a lot more powerful than they thought...due to the EU they want to exit.

Crispin Blunt was on radio 1 a few weeks back lamenting the disaster that was unfolding and audibly frustrated. It wasn't supposed to be like this. The terms of the divorce/withdrawal agreement should have been ignored apparently, and they should have been discussing the future relationship straight away. And little old Ireland were supposed to have been the UK's cheerleaders on the sidelines in Brussels fighting the EU bureaucracy for a good deal for our neighbours, thus saving the border (and incidentally their political reputations) in the process.
How badly has this blown up in their faces!
That Politico article shared here earlier sums up the missteps made every inch along the Brexit road they've trodden. And that idiot then has the audacity and arrogance to challenge Simon Coveney by claiming he could do more to help Dominic Grieve's career.

An Ciarraioch · 30-03-2019 11:10PM

Two opinion polls (ChUK and non-ChUK) make grim reading for the Tories:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112107560222511110

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112107512478736385

swampgas · 30-03-2019 11:17PM

Until recently I figured that the best outcome would be no Brexit at all.

My preference now, and I never expected to end up thinking this way, is for a hard Brexit, despite the trouble it would cause Ireland.

A long extension, or revoking article 50, would lead to a situation where the UK continues to send MEPs like Farage to the EU, and where the UK is constantly wasting EU time and effort with its insane, psychotic identity crisis.

I think the UK will only be inclined to undertake the introspection and very significant reform it requires when forced to by the consequences of a hard Brexit. More importantly, the UK in its current state would be extremely toxic to the EU as a whole if left in place as a reluctant, belligerent and uncooperative member.

The UK is beyond redemption right now. We have to cut it loose to save the rest of the EU from further damage.

An Ciarraioch · 30-03-2019 11:27PM

Brexit polling opposes no deal, but gives a margin-of-error lead for a second referendum and revoking Article 50:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112116730963341315

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112116959599099904

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112117322087567361

eire4 · 30-03-2019 11:32PM

swampgas wrote: »

Until recently I figured that the best outcome would be no Brexit at all.

My preference now, and I never expected to end up thinking this way, is for a hard Brexit, despite the trouble it would cause Ireland.

A long extension, or revoking article 50, would lead to a situation where the UK continues to send MEPs like Farage to the EU, and where the UK is constantly wasting EU time and effort with its insane, psychotic identity crisis.

I think the UK will only be inclined to undertake the introspection and very significant reform it requires when forced to by the consequences of a hard Brexit. More importantly, the UK in its current state would be extremely toxic to the EU as a whole if left in place as a reluctant, belligerent and uncooperative member.

The UK is beyond redemption right now. We have to cut it loose to save the rest of the EU from further damage.

I tend to agree that at this point only the cold hard slap of reality that a no deal exit would bring is the most likely way of waking them up from the delusional world they are currently living in.

Infini · 30-03-2019 11:33PM

swampgas wrote: »

The UK is beyond redemption right now. We have to cut it loose to save the rest of the EU from further damage.

Truth be told if a Hard Brexit occur's the breakup of the United Kingdom is the next step as Scotland will want out and Northern Ireland will likely veer towards reunification.

I would prefer that Brexit were cancelled but those who pursued this and ultimately caused this against every sane warning only deserve the worst to happen.

Headshot · 30-03-2019 11:38PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Two opinion polls (ChUK and non-ChUK) make grim reading for the Tories:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112107560222511110

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1112107512478736385

wow I havent seen Labour in the lead for a long time, even with Corbyn in charge

Spook_ie · 30-03-2019 11:41PM

Water John wrote: »

It isn't so much us, it's anyone who isn't them. That xenophobic streak is in there if you scratch many of them.
A friend was telling me yesterday of relations who have lived in the UK for 30 years. Very good friends with their neighbour. Was talking to them the day after the Ref and was lamenting the result. The neighbour said he voted Leave. The relation said what about me, I don't know if I will be allowed stay. 'Go back to your own country' was the reply.

To be fair, Irish people have been telling the English that for 800 years.

Duane Dibbley · 30-03-2019 11:50PM

Infini wrote: »

Truth be told if a Hard Brexit occur's the breakup of the United Kingdom is the next step as Scotland will want out and Northern Ireland will likely veer towards reunification.

I would prefer that Brexit were cancelled but those who pursued this and ultimately caused this against every sane warning only deserve the worst to happen.

You have to wonder if the EU really want the UK to revoke A50

I would think a Norway Deal would benefit the EU more so they don’t have to deal with the political bull**** from the UK Government

Mr.Nice Guy · 30-03-2019 11:56PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Brexit polling opposes no deal, but gives a margin-of-error lead for a second referendum and revoking Article 50:

I'd be curious to see what the numbers are on supporting no deal in England versus the rest of the UK. I would be inclined to think that England - excluding London - would now be for No Deal.

An Ciarraioch · 30-03-2019 11:58PM

Hugh O'Connell is interviewing Nigel Farage tomorrow:

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1112116047836930049

Headshot · 31-03-2019 12:07AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Hugh O'Connell is interviewing Nigel Farage tomorrow:

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1112116047836930049

Why these broadsheets give the likes of Farage any voice is beyond me, he's a nasty piece of work that shouldnt get any air time what so ever

it's something you expect by the likes of the telegraph....

Strazdas · 31-03-2019 12:08AM

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

You have to wonder if the EU really want the UK to revoke A50

I would think a Norway Deal would benefit the EU more so they don’t have to deal with the political bull**** from the UK Government

People seem to be ignoring too that there's no guarantee of a long extension even if the UK request one. The EU might refuse the request in 12 days' time, especially if they think May or her government are acting in bad faith.

FrancieBrady · 31-03-2019 12:10AM

swampgas wrote: »

Until recently I figured that the best outcome would be no Brexit at all.

My preference now, and I never expected to end up thinking this way, is for a hard Brexit, despite the trouble it would cause Ireland.

A long extension, or revoking article 50, would lead to a situation where the UK continues to send MEPs like Farage to the EU, and where the UK is constantly wasting EU time and effort with its insane, psychotic identity crisis.

I think the UK will only be inclined to undertake the introspection and very significant reform it requires when forced to by the consequences of a hard Brexit. More importantly, the UK in its current state would be extremely toxic to the EU as a whole if left in place as a reluctant, belligerent and uncooperative member.

The UK is beyond redemption right now. We have to cut it loose to save the rest of the EU from further damage.

I wouldn't be that pessimistic about EU elections. An awful lot of people seem more vocal about being pro EU at the moment in the UK. I get the sense that many Brexiteers have been put back in their box.

31-03-2019 12:11AM

swampgas wrote: »

Until recently I figured that the best outcome would be no Brexit at all.

My preference now, and I never expected to end up thinking this way, is for a hard Brexit, despite the trouble it would cause Ireland.

A long extension, or revoking article 50, would lead to a situation where the UK continues to send MEPs like Farage to the EU, and where the UK is constantly wasting EU time and effort with its insane, psychotic identity crisis.

I think the UK will only be inclined to undertake the introspection and very significant reform it requires when forced to by the consequences of a hard Brexit. More importantly, the UK in its current state would be extremely toxic to the EU as a whole if left in place as a reluctant, belligerent and uncooperative member.

The UK is beyond redemption right now. We have to cut it loose to save the rest of the EU from further damage.

This. I'm of the same mind for a long time now. The best case scenario would be for all the hard Brexiteers and rightwing ideologues to be in government making decisions/having their bluff called each and every day. Force them to discredit themselves and the decades of anti-EU scapegoating propaganda of the British media and political class. Otherwise they will be on the outside bringing down everybody else à la Paisley for 40 years.

Of course, they know this so the last thing they'll want is to destroy their ideological purity by being in government and "selling out" the deluded that they've been "leading" for years.

FrancieBrady · 31-03-2019 12:28AM

Hopefully this will convince any wavering Brexiteers. I think there might be many of them at this stage of the shambles.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/mar/30/gove-johnson-under-fire-vote-leave-fine-appeal-dropped?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard&fbclid=IwAR2OSi8lMFpvsKwd5POm1-TZqd0TyHH7Mlje3S8RMIOEH1JImpQsWCU4L9U

briany · 31-03-2019 12:29AM

Deleted User wrote: »

This. I'm of the same mind for a long time now. The best case scenario would be for all the hard Brexiteers and rightwing ideologues to be in government making decisions/having their bluff called each and every day. Force them to discredit themselves and the decades of anti-EU scapegoating propaganda of the British media and political class. Otherwise they will be on the outside bringing down everybody else à la Paisley for 40 years.

Of course, they know this so the last thing they'll want is to destroy their ideological purity by being in government and "selling out" the deluded that they've been "leading" for years.

If the more vociferous Brexiteers have not been discredited by now, they never will be. I think there's a bit of fantasy going on with the Remain side that the Brexiteers will be found out, or rather that their supporters will turn on them, and the air will be let out of the movement. Your true blue Brexiteer will ignore lie after lie from their own leaders, and blame any and all negative consequences on EU intransigence and Remainer sabotage. And that's just the negative consequences they're willing to admit to.

I don't see any way out of it, and if a hard Brexit does happen, it's only going to drive the two sides further apart. In fact, I envision a scenario where the two sides are living in the same space but parallel realities, whereby the hardcore Remain people are staggering down the street like the air has been poisoned, and the hardcore Leave people are skipping down the street like the air has been spiked with a mild opiate.

RobertKK · 31-03-2019 12:53AM

swampgas wrote: »

Until recently I figured that the best outcome would be no Brexit at all.

My preference now, and I never expected to end up thinking this way, is for a hard Brexit, despite the trouble it would cause Ireland.

A long extension, or revoking article 50, would lead to a situation where the UK continues to send MEPs like Farage to the EU, and where the UK is constantly wasting EU time and effort with its insane, psychotic identity crisis.

I think the UK will only be inclined to undertake the introspection and very significant reform it requires when forced to by the consequences of a hard Brexit. More importantly, the UK in its current state would be extremely toxic to the EU as a whole if left in place as a reluctant, belligerent and uncooperative member.

The UK is beyond redemption right now. We have to cut it loose to save the rest of the EU from further damage.

I think a lot of people have switched to this position.
Sense has not returned, and if people are going to keep pushing lies, maybe we all need the pain of no deal to maybe save ourselves from something worse as Donald Rumsfeld would say the unknown unknowns.
The people who keep pushing lies, the people who were in parliament square listening to Tommy Robinson, I agree beyond redemption...and they need to experience reality of what they are pushing.
Everything they disagree with is 'project fear' and anything other than a hard no deal Brexit would be used to promote more of the same crap and help the far right more.
So while no deal is really bad, maybe the alternatives would have worse effects from a political viewpoint.
The UK is in a really bad place at the moment, and its just getting worse.

31-03-2019 01:05AM

I have way too much sympathy and respect for the decent British that marched last week to wish a hard Brexit on the UK.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 31-03-2019 01:20AM

Strazdas wrote: »

People seem to be ignoring too that there's no guarantee of a long extension even if the UK request one. The EU might refuse the request in 12 days' time, especially if they think May or her government are acting in bad faith.

Apparently Paris is increasingly hostile to the U.K.

But it’s the commission that will agree on extensions.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Comments