Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42 · 30-03-2019 01:23PM

Headshot wrote: »

Dominic Grieve's just on sky news, he comes across so well, a bit of a class act.

The Conservatives party are getting really infiltrated by UKIP members and trying to destroy the party from within

He does, but in truth he let his party loyalties blind him to the truth for too long. Recall he opted to withdraw a motion on the basis of promises from TM, which she went back on almost as soon as she had won the vote. A vote it appeared very unlikely she would win if Grieve had stood firm.

It now seems that he has finally woken up to what has been happening. I don't say that to blame him, his is a lifelong Tory and was operating on the basis of the normal Tory party.

Had he stood firm and TM suffered a defeat back then, she might have been forced to change course (and of course she might not!)

trellheim · 30-03-2019 01:26PM

The Conservatives party are getting really infiltrated by UKIP members and trying to destroy the party from within

"Getting" ? I think that streak has always been there.

Leroy42 · 30-03-2019 01:32PM

devnull wrote: »

Being reported now that a fairly substantial number of ministers and senior tory MPs (mostly ERG I'd assume) have written to Theresa May saying that she needs to go for No Deal and also talk about Malthouse.

No deal and Malthouse were the two options with the most noes in last Monday's indicative votes.

Democracy I think not.

It certainly does appear that there is a significant amount of Tories, some Labour and certainly a large amount of the people who would opt for no deal.

We might not like it, agree with it or even understand it but it seems that quite a significant amount want out no matter what

LuckyLloyd · 30-03-2019 01:34PM

AllForIt wrote: »

I have to say also I think today is the worst day for democracy in my living memory. The fact that after 2 years since the UK public decided to leave the EU there is no prospect of that happening anytime soon.

This has come about imo by ppl who desire to undo Brexit. By a snobbish upper class of ppl who care more about their personal wealth than the country they live in.

It really is quite revolting to see what's going on.

There are no more snobbish than those who - with their generous public salaries, gold plated pensions and personal wealth - sold the working people of Britain a fantasy of a land of milk and honey outside the EU. Those who want to turn Britain into Singapore on Thames talk about history and country while coming from a long tradition of barely reserved hatred of the working class, their protections and their state supports.

There have been many dark days for British democracy over the past few years, and every time those rich snobbish charlatans with a public platform like Farage, Johnson, Davies, Rabb and Rees Mogg have lied to the public to pursue their own personal agendas it has fundamentally undermined a once great society.

What is revolting is that the poisoning of the well over the course of three decades has been so successful is that no matter what I say to you, what facts I provide to you and ultimately what charges may yet to be come for this entire charade in eventual public enquiries will never convince you that you might be wrong. Leaving the EU has become a quasi religious issue, impervious to reality or facts. It would have been a grand success somehow if only all involved had "believed" in it enough.

30-03-2019 01:41PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

"The EU has leeched billions from Ireland"..............
Really!
Ireland has been a net monetary beneficiary from the EU over the years. Ireland has also benefitted in many other ways. Membership of the EU has dragged us from being a priest-ridden social backwater into being a modern liberal democracy.
And who exactly are "the establishment "?. Would they, perchance, be the people that we freely elect to run the country. If we don't like them we can throw them out. If they don't perform and we don't throw them out, then it's our own fault.
Democracy does not guarantee a well run country. It merely facilitates it, provided the people make intelligent and well-informed decisions at the ballot box. The people we elect are an uncomfortably accurate reflection of society as a whole. If you want to see what Irish people are like, look at the Dail. It's not just part of what we are, it absolutely mirrors what we are.

I see your problem there.

And with massive media distrust creeping into the heads of one time rational people, I see no way to stop the rot of conspiracy nonsense.

LuckyLloyd · 30-03-2019 01:48PM

Excellent articulation of the essential crisis Brexit presents for the concept of the "Union" ancapailldorcha.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 30-03-2019 02:02PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The infiltration of the Tory party by UKIP is a positive development. They'll push the party further to the right while One Nation Tories will leave to form a centre right party. Thus, the likes of Boris and Jacob will be where they always should have been, in a minority party on the fringes of parliament.

There’s a funny attitude in this thread that Brexit is a tiny extremist philosophy. It’s clearly nuts but it’s probably the belief of most of the Conservative party voters and definitely the membership. They didn’t vote for UKIP because general elections are voted for on more than one topic, and also for reasons of party loyalty. In the European elections they did defect a bit.

The reason that the Cons had this referendum to begin with was this very fear of UKIP to their right, taking votes, and internal Tory brexiters.

ShooterSF · 30-03-2019 02:07PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The infiltration of the Tory party by UKIP is a positive development. They'll push the party further to the right while One Nation Tories will leave to form a centre right party. Thus, the likes of Boris and Jacob will be where they always should have been, in a minority party on the fringes of parliament.

The ironic thing is the torries hold their power often because of FPTP voting and being the only major "right" party and it is the very reason they're so divided now. A split would see two parties splitting votes and probably losing seats to the left and ultimately shifting the balance of power in the UK. The party needs to stay together even if they are actually miles apart if they want to keep power.

Headshot · 30-03-2019 02:10PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

He does, but in truth he let his party loyalties blind him to the truth for too long. Recall he opted to withdraw a motion on the basis of promises from TM, which she went back on almost as soon as she had won the vote. A vote it appeared very unlikely she would win if Grieve had stood firm.

It now seems that he has finally woken up to what has been happening. I don't say that to blame him, his is a lifelong Tory and was operating on the basis of the normal Tory party.

Had he stood firm and TM suffered a defeat back then, she might have been forced to change course (and of course she might not!)

Yes he has been very naive in all of this but I supposed it's never to late to wake up.

On a separate note I wouldnt be surprised if he ends up in the Change UK Party.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 30-03-2019 02:13PM

ShooterSF wrote: »

The ironic thing is the torries hold their power often because of FPTP voting and being the only major "right" party and it is the very reason they're so divided now. A split would see two parties splitting votes and probably losing seats to the left and ultimately shifting the balance of power in the UK. The party needs to stay together even if they are actually miles apart if they want to keep power.

Again this analysis assumes Brexit is a tiny minority position. In fact if a Brexit party formed and won seats in the constituencies where Brexit won in the referendum, the Brexit party would get 70% (approx) of the English MPs. The SNP have only 45% of the Scottish vote but dominate Westminster elections.

30-03-2019 02:13PM

Evd-Burner wrote: »

That's a brilliant article, well worth the read. It gives a great insight into the strategy of the EU!

Absolutely brilliant and one of the best on any topic I've read.

I too hadn't really grasped those details of the EU's strategy. Fair play to Ireland for the diplomatic work it employed to garner the support of a bloc it represents 1% of.

Shelga · 30-03-2019 02:15PM

I still don't understand why the DUP wanted Brexit at all. From a unionist standpoint, remaining in the EU is so blindingly obviously the right thing.

Is it just because their Tory English nationalist overlords wanted it? Is there some weird inferiority complex going on?

Instead of the DUP saying "this is not the Brexit that's best for the country" every time they were interviewed about not approving May's deal, why weren't they coming out strongly against leaving altogether?

I know the idea of a hard border and ripping up the GFA is great to them, but they must have seen it would never ever work in reality. The status quo was best for them and their ideology.

I don't think I'll ever understand it.

CelticRambler · 30-03-2019 02:22PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

It certainly does appear that there is a significant amount of Tories, some Labour and certainly a large amount of the people who would opt for no deal.

We might not like it, agree with it or even understand it but it seems that quite a significant amount want out no matter what

While the EU would naturally prefer a workable deal of some kind, the announcement during the week that "we are as prepared for no deal as we can be" indicates to me that we have passed the point of no return. There is nothing coming out of the UK that suggests that there is sufficient cohesion amongst the public or their representatives around any single idea or potential Moses-like leader (however much Boris might like the role).

To continue the biblical reference, the EU is currently playing the role of Pontius Pilate. EU-Britain has been dragged before him on trumped-up charges, and despite the option of an easy climb-down, "the people" have been hoodwinked into clamouring for the release of a brigand, and the crucifiction of their benevolent ally. Pilate shrugged his shoulders and washed his hands of the affair, and the EU looks to be doing the same.

When all is said and done, the EU knows that the UK will be back asking for food, drugs, cars, flights, hotel reservations, electricity and a thousand other things, and the EU will provide them ... at a price that suits the EU27. It's not really the lose-lose-lose situation described by Juncker/Barnier earlier this year, more of a lose-lose-(win)

ShooterSF · 30-03-2019 02:24PM

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Again this analysis assumes Brexit is a tiny minority position. In fact if a Brexit party formed and won seats in the constituencies where Brexit won in the referendum, the Brexit party would get 70% (approx) of the English MPs. The SNP have only 45% of the Scottish vote but dominate Westminster elections.

Not at all. It's more the fact that two big parties on the right splitting votes in a country that runs first past the post voting will reduce the amount of seats the right will get. That is the nature of their flawed voting system. Also most people don't vote on single issues in GEs so it is not like a Brexit party would take most of the torries votes. Probably just enough to let labour or the lib dems in with a chance of grabbing a seat.

Roger_007 · 30-03-2019 02:28PM

If there's a GE in the UK, the manifestos of both Labour and Tory parties are going to make interesting reading on the Brexit topic.
Because of the diversity of opinion in both parties, how are they going to come up with something that all their candidates can sign up to?
Of course there could be wholesale deselection of the current crop of moderate MPs which is already happening in Labour and rumoured to be happening with the Torys.
The inevitable outcome of a GE in the current climate would be a Parliament made up mostly of the hard left and the hard right. Ironically, that's exactly where most of the the ardent Brexiteers come from.
If Labour shift even more to the left they haven't a hope of getting a majority.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 30-03-2019 02:29PM

ShooterSF wrote: »

Not at all. It's more the fact that two big parties on the right splitting votes in a country that runs first past the post voting will reduce the amount of seats the right will get. That is the nature of their flawed voting system. Also most people don't vote on single issues in GEs so it is not like a Brexit party would take most of the torries votes. Probably just enough to let labour or the lib dems in with a chance of grabbing a seat.

There are left wing brexiters. You are right that most people don’t vote on single issues in most elections. One that was caused by the issue of Brexit might be different. The Brexit party might also be centrist on many issues except Brexit, to attract George Galloway and his ilk.

Also there’s effectively a single issue remain party (the IG) taking votes the other way.

Capt'n Midnight · 30-03-2019 02:30PM

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Again this analysis assumes Brexit is a tiny minority position. In fact if a Brexit party formed and won seats in the constituencies where Brexit won in the referendum, the Brexit party would get 70% (approx) of the English MPs. The SNP have only 45% of the Scottish vote but dominate Westminster elections.

I'd ask for some proof.

To get 70% you'd need to count Labour as a Brexit party, it's only Corbyn & Co that want Brexit and even they are ambivalent as the real goal is a General Election.

Besides it already happened.

UKIP are the only party to stand primarily on Brexit as the big issue have exactly Zero seats in the House of Commons.

The public are Bored of Brexit.

Meanwhile the media is biased, we know something in the order of a million people marched for revoke. I still haven't seen a count for the leave march.

The media need to say what the ratio was otherwise they have given both marches the same prominence.

Strazdas · 30-03-2019 02:30PM

Shelga wrote: »

I still don't understand why the DUP wanted Brexit at all. From a unionist standpoint, remaining in the EU is so blindingly obviously the right thing.

Is it just because their Tory English nationalist overlords wanted it? Is there some weird inferiority complex going on?

Instead of the DUP saying "this is not the Brexit that's best for the country" every time they were interviewed about not approving May's deal, why weren't they coming out strongly against leaving altogether?

I know the idea of a hard border and ripping up the GFA is great to them, but they must have seen it would never ever work in reality. The status quo was best for them and their ideology.

I don't think I'll ever understand it.

I don't think the DUP were particularly interested in Europe or the EU. It was very much a minor issue for them (whereas for Tory Brexiteer types it was quite massive). Their sole concern is the union with GB.

They may have felt too that Remain was going to win. They must be cursing the fact the referendum was ever held, Brexit has done them no favours.

30-03-2019 02:31PM

Labour can't get a majority no matter what they do. Like most, I'd have been more of a Labour type before all of this. Now, I just see nonsense.

The Monarchy would do better than any of them.

ShooterSF · 30-03-2019 02:38PM

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

There are left wing brexiters. You are right that most people don’t vote on single issues in most elections. One that was caused by the issue of Brexit might be different. The Brexit party might also be centrist on many issues except Brexit, to attract George Galloway and his ilk.

Also there’s effectively a single issue remain party (the IG) taking votes the other way.

I know there are brexiteers on both sides. My point was a split in the Conservative party would lead to less seats for the right in general and potentially hand power to the left.

The fact that the left is so fractured and that the conservatives always end up with percentage wise more seats than votes is exactly the point I'm trying to make.

It is the reason why they will do everything to avoid a split imo including facilitating what outsiders see as extreme minorities.

charlie14 · 30-03-2019 02:48PM

Shelga wrote: »

I still don't understand why the DUP wanted Brexit at all. From a unionist standpoint, remaining in the EU is so blindingly obviously the right thing.

Is it just because their Tory English nationalist overlords wanted it? Is there some weird inferiority complex going on?

Instead of the DUP saying "this is not the Brexit that's best for the country" every time they were interviewed about not approving May's deal, why weren't they coming out strongly against leaving altogether?

I know the idea of a hard border and ripping up the GFA is great to them, but they must have seen it would never ever work in reality. The status quo was best for them and their ideology.

I don't think I'll ever understand it.

The DUP are in the same boat as those Brexiteers that seem to believe that leaving the EU will somehow bring back the days of their "glorious empire".

That ship for Brexiteers sailed many moons ago and it aint coming back to port.

For the DUP it`s as much about tearing up the GFA and somehow believing they will go back to their glory days of "a protestant Ulster for a protestant people".
That ship sailed for the horizon with the first civil rights marches.

The only reality the DUP understand is that with the numbers game they are staring down the barrel of a future united Ireland and would happily burn the place down around their own ears if they thought the smoke would even slightly inconvenience the ROI.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 30-03-2019 02:51PM

ShooterSF wrote: »

I know there are brexiteers on both sides. My point was a split in the Conservative party would lead to less seats for the right in general and potentially hand power to the left.

But there’s a clear split on the left on Brexit as well. The Change party for instance. (I called them the IG in the last post, apparently they renamed yesterday).

The fact that the left is so fractured and that the conservatives always end up with percentage wise more seats than votes is exactly the point I'm trying to make.

It’s getting even more fractured.

It is the reason why they will do everything to avoid a split imo including facilitating what outsiders see as extreme minorities.

But Brexit isn’t the extreme minority position. That gets back to my earlier point.

You might be right on single issue parties not doing well in GEs but here’s another scenario:

Brexit doesn’t happen, or isn’t what brexiters want (a CU for instance) and a Brexit party emerges.

The ERG defects as do some labour pro brexiters or MPs in constituencies where Brexit won regardless of their own opinion. The remaining Tory and Labour parties are therefore remain parties as are the Greens and the Lib Dems. If you see votes in future as not been driven by left/right but remain/stay then the fractured nature of remain becomes obvious.

I’m not saying that this re-alignment is inevitable but it’s possible.

Water John · 30-03-2019 03:05PM

Most posters here recognise that Brexit will leave the UK and us worse off. That is why it's opposed. But No Deal Brexit is a lunatic position.

Well Monday may help clarify matters. The WA + the CU, a CU or 2nd Ref will all pass comfortably in the HOC. It's the Tories trying to pretend they are still a single party prevents that.
Obviously the EU can see this.

robinph · 30-03-2019 03:05PM

fash wrote: »

... and leave Ireland as the main English speaking country in the EU.
.

Think the Netherlands may be ahead of Ireland in that ranking.

Nody · 30-03-2019 03:31PM

Shelga wrote: »

I still don't understand why the DUP wanted Brexit at all. From a unionist standpoint, remaining in the EU is so blindingly obviously the right thing.

Is it just because their Tory English nationalist overlords wanted it? Is there some weird inferiority complex going on?

Well first and foremost they got paid to be for brexit. Remember a lot of funding want through DUP to brexit campaigns to limit the funding breaches were they were given a cut.

Secondly it was a counter to SF wanting to remain because what ever SF wants is wrong.

Everything else such as breaking up the Good Friday agreement was not going to happen according to the Brexiteers after all. Hence I think good old greed is the explanation you're looking for. Breaking up the GF agreement etc. now along with the billon bribe etc. is what keeps them going (and the fact admitting they were wrong would raise to many sensitive questions about the initial bribes).

Hurrache · 30-03-2019 03:33PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Absolutely brilliant and one of the best on any topic I've read.

I too hadn't really grasped those details of the EU's strategy. Fair play to Ireland for the diplomatic work it employed to garner the support of a bloc it represents 1% of.

Just finished it myself, it's a must read isn't it.

fash · 30-03-2019 03:39PM

robinph wrote: »

Think the Netherlands may be ahead of Ireland in that ranking.

... Or even Germany...

Let's go with common law or English mother tongue...

30-03-2019 03:43PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Just finished it myself, it's a must read isn't it.

Yeah, it's far beyond the quality level of what I'd expect an "article" to be. It isn't an article. It's a very observant analysis of the large arcs that influenced the day-to-day of what we all talk about here.

BarryD2 · 30-03-2019 03:50PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I don't think the DUP were particularly interested in Europe or the EU...... They must be cursing the fact the referendum was ever held, Brexit has done them no favours.

The DUP are primarily motivated to keep themselves on top of the Unionist pile of votes in NI. And Sinn Féin likewise on top of the Nationalist pile of votes.

All other matters are peripheral to them. A plague on both their houses if you ask me. There will never be any reconciliation on this island as long as these parties and their ilk have their boots under the table. But how do the ordinary citizens escape from them?

steddyeddy · 30-03-2019 03:53PM

Who else sees the UK eventually apply for full EU membership once the folly of their present actions is realised? Guy Verhofstadt says it's possible but they'll lose all the privileges they previously had e.g the Pound will have to go.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Comments