Is a Fianna Fail - Sinn Fein coalition inevitable?

Godot. · 30-03-2019 5:30am #1

A crucial moment in Fianna Fail's history is approaching. Opinion polls have remained largely rigid since the last general election, don't look like changing much any time soon and they can't spend another 5 years abstaining.

In my view, a coalition with Fine Gael is a non-runner. A coalition with FG as a junior partner would eventually lead to the demise of Fianna Fail. They would be broken at the following election. FG would sweep up their right wing and Sinn Fein would take the centrist Republicans.

Fine Gael and Sinn Fein are just too ideologically different to make a coalition, but Fianna Fail have a lot of Republicans in their party who sympathise with Sinn Fein (Eamon O'Cuiv and the like). Likewise, they have a lot of people in the party who despise Sinn Fein, but something has to give here. Their support may never recover to previous levels, so they need to take the opportunity for a coalition with Sinn Fein to show they can govern competantly.

In my view, if Martin ever wants to become Taoiseach he needs to swallow his pride and enter into a coalition with Sinn Fein.... or he'll be replaced by someone who will.

Thoughts?

IRISHSPORTSGUY · 30-03-2019 5:41am

I'd be grand with a Fianna Fail - Sinn Fein coalition. Might be the closest thing to a left wing government we ever get! Sinn Fein in a position of power would shift the governance of Ireland to the left, while Fianna Fail would temper the lunatic jingoistic Republican branch of the Sinn Fein party and stop them from doing too much damage.

Fine Gael's time is up. Varadkar's government's legacy will be the housing crisis.

Wheeliebin30 · 30-03-2019 7:21am

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

I'd be grand with a Fianna Fail - Sinn Fein coalition. Might be the closest thing to a left wing government we ever get! Sinn Fein in a position of power would shift the governance of Ireland to the left, while Fianna Fail would temper the lunatic jingoistic Republican branch of the Sinn Fein party and stop them from doing too much damage.

Fine Gael's time is up. Varadkar's government's legacy will be the housing crisis.

Would you give over.

Anything to suggest FGs time is up not forgetting their still polling the highest?

The housing crisis is a myth created by the left but people are starting to see through the lies.

18,000 homes built last year.

30,000 built in all of the UK last year.

We’re not doing too bad and once you do a bit of research and not listen to eoin Ó Broin and Paul
Murphy this becomes evident.

myshirt · 30-03-2019 7:52am

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Would you give over.

Anything to suggest FGs time is up not forgetting their still polling the highest?

The housing crisis is a myth created by the left but people are starting to see through the lies.

18,000 homes built last year.

30,000 built in all of the UK last year.

We’re not doing too bad and once you do a bit of research and not listen to eoin Ó Broin and Paul
Murphy this becomes evident.

Are you having a giraffe?

Fine Gael have done quite bad on housing. They have ignored good advice because it's politically unpalatable and they don't have the competence to deliver. For example, property taxes need to almost double, CAT thresholds need to drop hugely, more apartments need to be built, the transport unions need to be taken on, social housing support capped at 5 years, planning permission linked to target costs / proposed selling prices, those with parental support to buy or living at home to save need to be taxed, the list goes on.

Wanderer78 · 30-03-2019 7:59am

Wheeliebin30 wrote:

The housing crisis is a myth created by the left but people are starting to see through the lies.

Right, even global commentators are even talking about!

Wheeliebin30 · 30-03-2019 8:17am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Right, even global commentators are even talking about!

And???

It’s in the news here of course they will talk about it.

Doesn’t make it true, global commentators talked about trump and the Russians, didn’t make it true.

malinheader · 30-03-2019 8:26am

Fiannna fail/ sinn Fein coalition. What difference from the government we have know will there be.
I can't think of any Major changes to the way things are being done at the minute.

rockatansky · 30-03-2019 10:18am

No Chance.

Sinn Fein represent too much of a threat to Fianna Fail. No one ever imagined Sinn Fein over taking Labour as the 3rd party in Ireland. Every opinion poll that gives them points increase while Fianna Fail drops reminds them of this fact every time.

The older/senior figures in Fianna Fail are very clearly aware of this and it scares the life out of them. Doing so would bring Sinn Fein more into the center and add more younger voters to them.

Once you break the seal voting Sinn Fein, it becomes less and less of an issue going forward.

rockatansky · 30-03-2019 10:20am

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Fine Gael's time is up. Varadkar's government's legacy will be the housing crisis.

Maybe in another 10 years.

McMurphy · 30-03-2019 10:24am

If there's one thing boards have taught me over the year's, is that some people view their political party of choice as a football team in some imaginary tournament.

They'll excuse poor performance regardless of facts, and they'll shout and roar their support from the sidelines, while roaring at the opposition at the same time.

There's definitely a gap in the market for hats/scarves and replica shirts and rattles.

30-03-2019 10:26am

myshirt wrote: »

Are you having a giraffe?

Fine Gael have done quite bad on housing. They have ignored good advice because it's politically unpalatable and they don't have the competence to deliver. For example, property taxes need to almost double, CAT thresholds need to drop hugely, more apartments need to be built, the transport unions need to be taken on, social housing support capped at 5 years, planning permission linked to target costs / proposed selling prices, those with parental support to buy or living at home to save need to be taxed, the list goes on.

Homeless crisis is a joke. Some genuine cases, yes. Most are willing to accept short term pain for long term gain.
Property taxes need to be raised, but need paying by HOUSEHOLDER, not owner. Refuse collection needs be covered by this and taken back from private operators.
Water charges need be brought in for all householders.
Unemployment benefits need an overhaul. Reduced payments over time or vouchers only.
Children’s allowance to be abolished and replaced by tax allowances for parents.

As for anyone joining with Sinn Fein, I doubt anyone would take the risk.

maynooth_rules · 30-03-2019 10:30am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Right, even global commentators are even talking about!

Are they? Sweden,which is so often held as an example of how countries should do so much, has a higher 'homeless' per head of population figure than us.
The I am at the point where I want to see Sinn Fein in a position of power. I am tired of seeing their members being utterly populist in every regard, while at the same time not taking their seats in Stormont,refusing to take their seats in Westminster and racing to the opposition benches the second the last election finished in the Dail. They offer nothing but I feel for their supporters that they need to see this in action before believing it.

malinheader · 30-03-2019 10:32am

Deleted User wrote: »

Homeless crisis is a joke. Some genuine cases, yes. Most are willing to accept short term pain for long term gain.
Property taxes need to be raised, but need paying by HOUSEHOLDER, not owner. Refuse collection needs be covered by this and taken back from private operators.
Water charges need be brought in for all householders.
Unemployment benefits need an overhaul. Reduced payments over time or vouchers only.
Children’s allowance to be abolished and replaced by tax allowances for parents.

As for anyone joining with Sinn Fein, I doubt anyone would take the risk.

What about a decent living wage for people in lower scale jobs, and TDs and all these other CEO,s of alot of government jobs and quangos take a paycut to a decent living wage instead of the hundreds of thousands they are on a year.

30-03-2019 10:37am

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

If there's one thing boards have taught me over the year's, is that some people view their political party of choice as a football team in some imaginary tournament.

.............
There's definitely a gap in the market for hats/scarves and replica shirts and rattles.

^^^^THIS

There a good few self-appointed "experts" here on boards, across the political spectrum, who will broadcast their views endlessly, but such statements are no more at all than bar stool waffle & punditry

McMurphy · 30-03-2019 10:40am

maynooth_rules wrote: »

Are they? Sweden,which is so often held as an example of how countries should do so much, has a higher 'homeless' per head of population figure than us.
The I am at the point where I want to see Sinn Fein in a position of power. I am tired of seeing their members being utterly populist in every regard, while at the same time not taking their seats in Stormont,refusing to take their seats in Westminster and racing to the opposition benches the second the last election finished in the Dail. They offer nothing but I feel for their supporters that they need to see this in action before believing it.

To be fair, they get the number of votes up North precisely because they don't take their seats in Westminster (you may have heard of abstenionism?).

As mentioned on this thread lots of times, and especially more frequently now with the Brexit threads, nationalists vote for them in the full knowledge they will abstain, and in fact many vote for them because they abstain.

Would you like any of our elected TDs/Ministers etc to take an oath to the queen, and sit in a foreign Parliament? (Ok, I know to some fg supporters in particular, that may be no big deal)

Nationalist/Republicans in the north who view the British government as a foreign one, definitely don't, and that should be respected imo.

Equally if they do want representation in that foreign Parliament, and don't mind their representatives pledging an oath to the queen, well then they have the SDLP, who are going nowhere fast it seems.

FrancieBrady · 30-03-2019 10:45am

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

To be fair, they get the number of votes up North precisely because they don't take their seats in Westminster (you may have heard of abstenionism?).

As mentioned on this thread lots of times, and especially more frequently now with the Brexit threads, nationalists vote for them in the full knowledge they will abstain, and in fact many vote for them because they abstain.

Would you like any of our elected TDs/Ministers etc to take an oath to the queen, and sit in a foreign Parliament? (Ok, I know to some fg supporters in particular, that may be no big deal)

Nationalist/Republicans in the north who view the British government as a foreign one, definitely don't, and that should be respected imo.

Equally if they do want representation in that foreign Parliament, and don't mind their representatives pledging an oath to the queen, well then they have the SDLP, who are going nowhere fast it seems.

It should be said it isn't just a stance based around the oath. It also has to do with the inherent hypocrisy of interfering in the running of other countries while demanding that a foreign country stop interfering in theirs.

On the OP, I think it could happen, and would be a good thing for our democracy even if it wasn't a good pairing.

McMurphy · 30-03-2019 10:53am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It should be said it isn't just a stance based around the oath. It also has to do with the inherent hypocrisy of interfering in the running of other countries while demanding that a foreign country stop interfering in theirs.

On the OP, I think it could happen, and would be a good thing for our democracy even if it wasn't a good pairing.

Yeah I know that, in fact I don't know if the oath is an issue per say to SF, but the whole foreign government thing, would be a bit ludicrous to campaign for the removal of a foreign countries govt from their affairs, whilst they partook in theirs.

I'm often left wondering if some posters (especially in a politics forum) don't understand this, or refuse to understand it. Because there's a difference.

Duane Dibbley · 30-03-2019 11:00am

I really hope not.

30-03-2019 12:24pm

malinheader wrote: »

What about a decent living wage for people in lower scale jobs, and TDs and all these other CEO,s of alot of government jobs and quangos take a paycut to a decent living wage instead of the hundreds of thousands they are on a year.

If you want better pay, then get a better job. The reason there are low paying jobs is that there are plenty of people willing to accept the conditions.

Wheeliebin30 · 30-03-2019 12:41pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If you want better pay, then get a better job. The reason there are low paying jobs is that there are plenty of people willing to accept the conditions.

Exactly and to be honest probably didn’t do much in school and didn’t bother with college.

That’s life, sounds harsh but it’s true.

Hard work pays.

IAMAMORON · 30-03-2019 12:43pm

Only a matter of time …..

is_that_so · 30-03-2019 12:50pm

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

I'd be grand with a Fianna Fail - Sinn Fein coalition. Might be the closest thing to a left wing government we ever get! Sinn Fein in a position of power would shift the governance of Ireland to the left, while Fianna Fail would temper the lunatic jingoistic Republican branch of the Sinn Fein party and stop them from doing too much damage.

Fine Gael's time is up. Varadkar's government's legacy will be the housing crisis.

Probably not. They've been very slow about it and have made some poor calls on housing but it will eventually right itself. The question for middle class voters is about alternatives. A SF party inclined to tax large hordes of the middle classes is going to have a hard time flipping them from FG/FF and to a far smaller extent now, Labour. The problem then is losing the fringes to the other lefties never mind the risk of being a minor coalition partner post-government.

Idbatterim · 30-03-2019 12:53pm

There’s a ton of agendas on here. Ff. Fg are absolute proven morons. No doubt sf will be the same , but give them a shot. If This election does nothing other than remove fg, so I don’t have to see and hear that spoofing spineless moron varadkar relentlessly, I’ll be happy with that.

Wheeliebin30 · 30-03-2019 1:01pm

Idbatterim wrote: »

There’s a ton of agendas on here. Ff. Fg are absolute proven morons. No doubt sf will be the same , but give them a shot. If This election does nothing other than remove fg, so I don’t have to see and hear that spoofing spineless moron varadkar relentlessly, I’ll be happy with that.

If SFs record up north is anything to go by I’ll pass.

What do they actually do anymore??????

Plumbthedepths · 30-03-2019 1:04pm

Over 10,000 officially listed as homeless that's some achievement. Even a special mention by the UN. Whilst FF/SF coalition is unlikely it's also reasonable to assume they couldn't make things any worse than the present incumbents.
Leo forgot his promise to the person that gets up early.

Yurt2 · 30-03-2019 1:11pm

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

18,000 homes built last year.

30,000 built in all of the UK last year.

We’re not doing too bad and once you do a bit of research and not listen to eoin Ó Broin and Paul
Murphy this becomes evident.

Fake news. Housing completions in England (figures exclude NI, Scotland and Wales) stood at 165'000 in 2018.

If you think an economy the size of the UK is churning out only 30'000 homes a year I think you could stand to do a bit of research yourself.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/mar/28/housebuilding-england-flat-theresa-may-mission-2018

Wheeliebin30 · 30-03-2019 1:12pm

Yurt! wrote: »

Fake news. Housing completions in England (figures exclude NI, Scotland and Wales) stood at 165'000 in 2018.

If you think an economy the size of the UK is churning out only 30'000 homes a year I think you could stand to do a bit of research yourself.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/mar/28/housebuilding-england-flat-theresa-may-mission-2018

Yep I read that wrong somewhere it seems.

enricoh · 30-03-2019 1:17pm

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Over 10,000 officially listed as homeless that's some achievement. Even a special mention by the UN. Whilst FF/SF coalition is unlikely it's also reasonable to assume they couldn't make things any worse than the present incumbents.
Leo forgot his promise to the person that gets up early.

Its an attractive career choice now for people to get on homeless list. You get yer gaff in dublin while those that pay for it commute in from the surrounding counties n sit on the m50.
Apparently we have to house anyone in the world who rocks up to Ireland for social housing also. Over 60% on fingals housing list were foreign born a few years ago.

devlinio · 30-03-2019 1:21pm

Would be a disaster. We need FG to continue the good work they are doing.

We will not see the results overnight, but look at where we were 5 years ago compared to now. We're basically a different country. People will look back in 2025 and finally appreciate the work FG is doing.

Plumbthedepths · 30-03-2019 1:39pm

enricoh wrote:

Its an attractive career choice now for people to get on homeless list. You get yer gaff in dublin while those that pay for it commute in from the surrounding counties n sit on the m50. Apparently we have to house anyone in the world who rocks up to Ireland for social housing also. Over 60% on fingals housing list were foreign born a few years ago.

So homeless now is a career? Please tell you actually know what the word 'career' means.

Wanderer78 · 30-03-2019 2:08pm

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Exactly and to be honest probably didn’t do much in school and didn’t bother with college.

That’s life, sounds harsh but it’s true.

Hard work pays.

do you actually know what causes unemployment, in particular long term unemployment?

hard work does not always pay, period!

Idbatterim · 30-03-2019 2:18pm

Lads I don’t even see much points in these threads. Two sides , both won’t budge. So no point in trying to change opinion. A new party here that was competent could take twenty to twenty five percent of the vote in my opinion ...

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/progressive-ireland-is-a-fantasy-cultivated-by-elites-1.3841954?mode=amp

People here may defend dumb and dumber , but they are proven failures. If sf were in power would they have allowed the vulture fund and Nama farces? Flogging off asserts here , like apartment blocks for a pittance? That now cost the tax payer a fortune to purchase?

Idbatterim · 30-03-2019 2:21pm

devlinio wrote: »

Would be a disaster. We need FG to continue the good work they are doing.

We will not see the results overnight, but look at where we were 5 years ago compared to now. We're basically a different country. People will look back in 2025 and finally appreciate the work FG is doing.

Where are we? Still pathetic infrastructure, marginal rate of tax is a farce. Law and order? Lol. Housing and the entire housing set up is a farce. No , they have been In power over eight years , over 3000 nights , enough is enough ...

See you can’t fix problems for one section of society, when those aims are totally at odds with your cronies and mates and even yourself...

Are pretty much all decision makers here property owners ? Yes ... there we start , the decision makers have a massive interest in rising property prices ...

Wheeliebin30 · 30-03-2019 2:33pm

Idbatterim wrote: »

Where are we? Still pathetic infrastructure, marginal rate of tax is a farce. Law and order? Lol. Housing and the entire housing set up is a farce. No , they have been In power over eight years , over 3000 nights , enough is enough ...

See you can’t fix problems for one section of society, when those aims are totally at odds with your cronies and mates and even yourself...

Are pretty much all decision makers here property owners ? Yes ... there we start , the decision makers have a massive interest in rising property prices ...

How long are the troika gone?

Do you realise how broke we were up until a few years ago?

Idbatterim · 30-03-2019 2:37pm

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

How long are the troika gone?

Do you realise how broke we were up until a few years ago?

I do. I realise hard decisions not being taken , Have us where we are now. Workers the last few budgets on 34k or thereabouts, have received a e1.50 week usc reduction and varadkar that rat talks about rewarding the early risers? While property costs still rocket.

UN says Ireland applies 'preferential tax laws' to vultures funds and it 'cannot continue' Read that during the week, google it if interested. Too many right at the top and many at the “ bottom” just taking the piss. Hence many working people are totally screwed, paying for it all. Income taxes gone from twelve to twenty billion over the last few years! Raising jsa and jsb when fg keep on harping on anoint full employment and there are endless more worthy and better causes for that money , show you how spineless they really are!

Wanderer78 · 30-03-2019 2:38pm

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

How long are the troika gone?

Do you realise how broke we were up until a few years ago?

again, we werent doing too badly leading up to the crash, regularly running a surplus

blanch152 · 30-03-2019 2:46pm

A Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein coalition is the only real alternative to a Fine Gael government. In my opinion, it is also the most likely outcome to an election.

If Fianna Fail bring down the current government, then they have to put forward in an election an alternative that doesn't include Fine Gael. There is no way that they will make up the numbers without Sinn Fein.

For Fianna Fail to be in government without Fine Gael and without Sinn Fein, then they a miracle in the polls. The polls have barely shifted in the last year, suggesting no real appetite for change out there. If the government collapsed in a scandal, FF could go above 30%, but at the moment that is the limit.

At the same time, it would take a massive surge for FG and/or the decimation of independents for it to govern without both Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail. If we don't have a minority FG government back, then it has to be FF/SF.

Idbatterim · 30-03-2019 2:50pm

We know there will be an election pretty soon. We know that traffic and housing, likely are going to get worse. Pinnochio will have another budget with an insult to workers. That’s what we know! That ff are that pathetic that they are preying for another crisis , despite ff being so bad and don’t try to win more votes by good policy or less of their old politics , tells you a lot !

Wheeliebin30 · 30-03-2019 2:56pm

Amazing.

How many lives did FF affect with decimating the country only 10 years ago.

And they will be back in next all because of some faux outrage over 10,000 people who mostly want a house for free.

Unbelievable.

Yurt2 · 30-03-2019 3:26pm

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Amazing.

How many lives did FF affect with decimating the country only 10 years ago.

And they will be back in next all because of some faux outrage over 10,000 people who mostly want a house for free.

Unbelievable.

No, you're a free house.

Eire Go Brach · 30-03-2019 3:34pm

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Amazing.

How many lives did FF affect with decimating the country only 10 years ago.

And they will be back in next all because of some faux outrage over 10,000 people who mostly want a house for free.

Unbelievable.

There is a lot that will never forget. Like you, I blame them for destroying my country. I will never vote for them again. And a lot of people are in the same boat. So it’s going to be coalitions for a long time.

While I dislike FG. I will vote them tactically ahead of FF.
Remember it’s more important to use all your votes than not to vote. E.G. I will always vote FF last, probably for the rest of my life.

Idbatterim · 30-03-2019 5:57pm

SNIP. Take the ranting elsewhere please.

ancapailldorcha · 30-03-2019 6:19pm

Mod: No more ranting please. Post deleted.

is_that_so · 30-03-2019 6:28pm

Idbatterim wrote: »

Lads I don’t even see much points in these threads. Two sides , both won’t budge. So no point in trying to change opinion. A new party here that was competent could take twenty to twenty five percent of the vote in my opinion ...

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/progressive-ireland-is-a-fantasy-cultivated-by-elites-1.3841954?mode=amp

Whatever drugs that writer is on, I'd like some please. He seems to be in happy place with tangerine trees and marmalade skies! As always commentary outside equates us with the left/right divide of the rest of Europe. We already have our own brand of populism - it's called election promises.

20% you say. Is that based on a straw poll of me and my friends?

People here may defend dumb and dumber , but they are proven failures. If sf were in power would they have allowed the vulture fund and Nama farces? Flogging off asserts here , like apartment blocks for a pittance? That now cost the tax payer a fortune to purchase?

The only cost the tax payer has had is the black hole of Anglo. Everything else has been or will be paid for. If you imagine a two-fingered salute by a sitting SF government would have worked take a look at the Greek experience.

L1011 · 30-03-2019 6:29pm

I would see FF or SF slowly ceasing to be in any coalition, FF in an FG/FF and SF in a FF/SF. Possibly even FF in s numbers reversed SF/FF but tonight's poll suggests that's slipping further away.

Some members including some backbenchers would probably leave at the thought of it on day one. Others with less immediately disgust may ebb away and those left in the middle may see logic in merging. That could start with election deals, particularly by elections or 3 seaters where there is room for one only.

Wheeliebin30 · 30-03-2019 7:26pm

Idbatterim wrote: »

why is my comment getting taken down! FG wanted more fuel poured on the fire during the boom, when they obviously would have loved to have been at the helm (understandably). The music stopped when FF had the parcel in their hands. That isnt a rant, that is fact!

FG want a pat on the back because of "chance" , "timing"?

It has been shown here time and time again Richard Bruton calling on FF to stop the spending wrecklessly and producing budgets to match during the boom.

You know this as well.

Wheeliebin30 · 30-03-2019 7:27pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Whatever drugs that writer is on, I'd like some please. He seems to be in happy place with tangerine trees and marmalade skies! As always commentary outside equates us with the left/right divide of the rest of Europe. We already have our own brand of populism - it's called election promises.

20% you say. Is that based on a straw poll of me and my friends?

The only cost the tax payer has had is the black hole of Anglo. Everything else has been or will be paid for. If you imagine a two-fingered salute by a sitting SF government would have worked take a look at the Greek experience.

Funny thing is SF votes for the bank guarantee.

Won’t hear them saying that though.

Idbatterim · 30-03-2019 7:28pm

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

It has been shown here time and time again Richard Bruton calling on FF to stop the spending wrecklessly and producing budgets to match during the boom.

You know this as well.

I dont recall this, that is not to say it didnt happen. Hardly took Warren Buffet to say "STOP" the madness, knowing at some point in the future, sure as night follows day, the idiocy of it all , would come home to roost!

Wheeliebin30 · 30-03-2019 7:32pm

Idbatterim wrote: »

I dont recall this, that is not to say it didnt happen. Hardly took Warren Buffet to say "STOP" the madness, knowing at some point in the future, sure as night follows day, the idiocy of it all , would come home to roost!

Yet you’re somehow blaming FG????

blanch152 · 30-03-2019 8:34pm

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2019/0330/1039630-poll-politics/

That poll makes it even harder to see an alternative to the current set-up.

FF and SF only get to 38%, well short of what is required.

FG (31), Labour (5), SD (3) and Green (3) get to 42%, which if it all fell the right way and picked up 5 or 6 independents could be close, but that is a long shot.

FF and FG add to 56% and a different FF leader might justify it on the basis of being able to keep a closer eye on FG.

Water John · 30-03-2019 8:42pm

The question is for SF and others is, would having SF as a minority partner revive their fortunes or be the kiss of death?

Is a Fianna Fail - Sinn Fein coalition inevitable?

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