Is a Fianna Fail - Sinn Fein coalition inevitable?

Chiparus

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Both FF and FG are eyeing up their own versions of option 2, according to this article https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/fine-gael-tries-to-woo-potential-coalition-partners-1.3868595
However I agree with you that barring some extraordinary turnabout there is no way FF will have the numbers to form such a government. And at the moment it's looking like a longshot that FG will either.

If FF come in second behind FG again, they will face a range of unpalatable options, and I think it's quite likely that Martin will immediately resign and leave the choice to his successor. I wouldn't rule out a reprise of the current arrangement, on the basis that it would be the worst option for FF, apart from all the others.

Or he could form a coalition with SF and become taoiseach?

Loafing Oaf

Chiparus wrote: »

Or he could form a coalition with SF and become taoiseach?

Even though he has categorically ruled this out and repeatedly denounced SF as the fount of evil.

oceanman

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Even though he has categorically ruled this out and repeatedly denounced SF as the fount of evil.

what?..a politician going back on his word....never

mattser

Chiparus wrote: »

Or he could form a coalition with SF and become taoiseach?

Two cheeks of the same arse

James Brown

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Even though he has categorically ruled this out and repeatedly denounced SF as the fount of evil.

If I had the power I'd have made Fianna Fail an illegal organisation years ago. Some neck. I always get a laugh out of FF/FG citing their morals.

Idbatterim

Key areas like housing and health Are just going to get worse. Would love to see that snake varadkar removed as Taoiseach firstly and as head of fg secondly!

Losing his seat is probably too much to ask for !

ancapailldorcha

oceanman wrote: »

what?..a politician going back on his word....never

mattser wrote: »

Two cheeks of the same arse

Cut out the one-liners please.

Chiparus

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Even though he has categorically ruled this out and repeatedly denounced SF as the fount of evil.

I have good news for Roscommon Hospital, Enda Kenny has promised the people of roscommon that their A&E will be safe under Fine Gael.

In other news

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/sargent-rules-out-coalition-with-fianna-fail-1.1035243

Loafing Oaf

Chiparus wrote: »

I have good news for Roscommon Hospital, Enda Kenny has promised the people of roscommon that their A&E will be safe under Fine Gael.

In other news

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/sargent-rules-out-coalition-with-fianna-fail-1.1035243

Well if you fancy a wager than MM will lead his party into coalition with SF I'm willing to offer one on very favourable terms.

Chiparus

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Well if you fancy a wager than MM will lead his party into coalition with SF I'm willing to offer one on very favourable terms.

Not much of a gambler but I will put one on PP if you like.

Not that I dont trust you, of course.;)

Tell me is Mickey still opposed to repealing the 8th?

blanch152

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Both FF and FG are eyeing up their own versions of option 2, according to this article https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/fine-gael-tries-to-woo-potential-coalition-partners-1.3868595
However I agree with you that barring some extraordinary turnabout there is no way FF will have the numbers to form such a government. And at the moment it's looking like a longshot that FG will either.

If FF come in second behind FG again, they will face a range of unpalatable options, and I think it's quite likely that Martin will immediately resign and leave the choice to his successor. I wouldn't rule out a reprise of the current arrangement, on the basis that it would be the worst option for FF, apart from all the others.

If FF finish second, then Martin will have to go. They will be desperate to get into government and will think that they can do to Sinn Fein what they did to the PDs and the Greens.

Chiparus

Next Government
GOVERNMENT AFTER NEXT ELECTION
Fine Gael/Sinn Fein
5/1
Fine Gael/Independents
5/1
Fine Gael Minority
5/1
Fine Gael/Fianna Fail
7/1
Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein
7/1
Fianna Fail/Independents
10/1
FG/Lab/SD/Green
14/1
Fine Gael/Labour
18/1
Fianna Fail Minority
20/1
Fine Gael Majority
25/1
Fianna Fail/Labour
33/1
Fianna Fail Majority
66/1
SF/Lab/SD/Solidarity/Green
100/1
Sinn Fein Majority
200/1

Interesting odds on FG/SF

Loafing Oaf

Chiparus wrote: »

Not much of a gambler but I will put one on PP if you like.

I don't think you'd get odds on this particular question. You can bet on an FF/SF coalition, which I see as unlikely but not inconceivable. However, it's not going to happen on Martin's watch.

blanch152

Chiparus wrote: »

Next Government
GOVERNMENT AFTER NEXT ELECTION
Fine Gael/Sinn Fein
5/1
Fine Gael/Independents
5/1
Fine Gael Minority
5/1
Fine Gael/Fianna Fail
7/1
Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein
7/1
Fianna Fail/Independents
10/1
FG/Lab/SD/Green
14/1
Fine Gael/Labour
18/1
Fianna Fail Minority
20/1
Fine Gael Majority
25/1
Fianna Fail/Labour
33/1
Fianna Fail Majority
66/1
SF/Lab/SD/Solidarity/Green
100/1
Sinn Fein Majority
200/1

Interesting odds on FG/SF

The numbers suggest that is the most likely, hence the odds at this stage. IF you look down the list, it is purely a numbers job. It is only when an election campaign gets going, and polls start and things get said, that we will see a realistic assessment.

John DoeReMi

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Even though he has categorically ruled this out and repeatedly denounced SF as the fount of evil.

Being a FF leader automatically means being comfortable with lying, u-turns, flip flops and and advanced spoofing. That's how Ahern was so successful. He refused to take a clear position on anything and where he was forced to, would happily take a completely opposite stance the next day if it was necessary to con people into voting FF.

At the end of the day, the only thing that matters to FF is:

1) Take power by any means necessary short of violence.
2) Hold onto power by any means necessary short of violence. Remember how they suspended the basic democratic right to vote for the people of three constituencies during the Cowen era, until SF brought them to the High Court? Think about that for a minute - Sinn Fein, of all people, as the last hope for democracy in Ireland. Politics, Zimbabwe style, brought to you by FF.

Martin will do a deal with SF if it's the only option for FF to take power again. It's only a matter of time

Eric Cartman

John DoeReMi wrote: »

Being a FF leader automatically means being comfortable with lying, u-turns, flip flops and and advanced spoofing. That's how Ahern was so successful. He refused to take a clear position on anything and where he was forced to, would happily take a completely opposite stance the next day if it was necessary to con people into voting FF.

At the end of the day, the only thing that matters to FF is:

1) Take power by any means necessary short of violence.
2) Hold onto power by any means necessary short of violence. Remember how they suspended the basic democratic right to vote for the people of three constituencies during the Cowen era, until SF brought them to the High Court? Think about that for a minute - Sinn Fein, of all people, as the last hope for democracy in Ireland. Politics, Zimbabwe style, brought to you by FF.

Martin will do a deal with SF if it's the only option for FF to take power again. It's only a matter of time

I think thats why martin has to go , completely shafted his parties explicit, voted for multiple times wishes of not wanting to repeal the 8th . There is no reason to believe that martin wouldnt jump in with the shinners. The FF membership and many deputies have made it clear that this is the most catastrophic option for Ireland and should never be on the table, The FF leadership needs somebody who understands that.

Loafing Oaf

Eric Cartman wrote: »

I think thats why martin has to go , completely shafted his parties explicit, voted for multiple times wishes of not wanting to repeal the 8th . There is no reason to believe that martin wouldnt jump in with the shinners. The FF membership and many deputies have made it clear that this is the most catastrophic option for Ireland and should never be on the table, The FF leadership needs somebody who understands that.

You don't think he has been vehement enough in his denunciations of SF or in ruling out coalition with them?:eek: I'm struggling to imagine what more he could say or do in that regard, burn an effigy of Mary Lou outside the Dail or something. And if you don't trust Martin to keep his word on coalition with SF, why would you trust any other FF leader?

Eric Cartman

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

You don't think he has been vehement enough in his denunciations of SF or in ruling out coalition with them?:eek: I'm struggling to imagine what more he could say or do in that regard, burn an effigy of Mary Lou outside the Dail or something. And if you don't trust Martin to keep his word on coalition with SF, why would you trust any other FF leader?

He had said multiple times in the past that he wouldnt prop up FG either , he's a weak leader and always has been. FF has a lot better people to run the show that wouldnt leave them consistently second place.

maynooth_rules

Eric Cartman wrote: »

He had said multiple times in the past that he wouldnt prop up FG either , he's a weak leader and always has been. FF has a lot better people to run the show that wouldnt leave them consistently second place.

Who exactly? Repeal the 8th vote proved that FF voters are generally quite old. Many of heir hardcore supporters are dying out. They will never do anything better than 2nd place now

James Brown

maynooth_rules wrote: »

Who exactly? Repeal the 8th vote proved that FF voters are generally quite old. Many of heir hardcore supporters are dying out. They will never do anything better than 2nd place now

I wish however there's a type of voter looks after A number 1 and they'll happily shift from FG to FF if it profits them. Choose looking at the small picture. As long as we've selfish people we'll have a number willing to vote FF/FG depending on what way the wind is blowing.
FG are a great example actually, look after number 1, 'our own' and then wonder why we've a growing class of people who can't get from one week to the next without some form of aid and then call them 'entitled'. We need rid of the pair of them.

Chiparus

Eric Cartman wrote: »

I think thats why martin has to go , completely shafted his parties explicit, voted for multiple times wishes of not wanting to repeal the 8th . There is no reason to believe that martin wouldnt jump in with the shinners. The FF membership and many deputies have made it clear that this is the most catastrophic option for Ireland and should never be on the table, The FF leadership needs somebody who understands that.

Actually its the FF TDs who are more open to coalition with SF.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/backbench-td-contradicts-micheal-martin-on-sinn-fein-coalition-460652.html

L1011

Chiparus wrote: »

Actually its the FF TDs who are more open to coalition with SF.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/backbench-td-contradicts-micheal-martin-on-sinn-fein-coalition-460652.html

Presumably thinking there's no other way the Ministerial pension is going to appear, more than anything else.

McMurphy

Eric Cartman wrote: »

He had said multiple times in the past that he wouldnt prop up FG either , he's a weak leader and always has been. FF has a lot better people to run the show that wouldnt leave them consistently second place.

maynooth_rules wrote: »

Who exactly? Repeal the 8th vote proved that FF voters are generally quite old. Many of heir hardcore supporters are dying out. They will never do anything better than 2nd place now

Keep an eye on Stephen Donnelly.

Loafing Oaf

Eric Cartman wrote: »

He had said multiple times in the past that he wouldnt prop up FG either , he's a weak leader and always has been. FF has a lot better people to run the show that wouldnt leave them consistently second place.

I don't see how being weak or dithering or indecisive or however you want to describe Martin would make him more likely to take FF into coalition with SF. IT seems to me it would take gumption (albeit of the wrong sort in your eyes) to grasp that particular nettle. Whereas the path of least resistance would be to renew the current arrangement with FG...

Chiparus

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I don't see how being weak or dithering or indecisive or however you want to describe Martin would make him more likely to take FF into coalition with SF. IT seems to me it would take gumption (albeit of the wrong sort in your eyes) to grasp that particular nettle. Whereas the path of least resistance would be to renew the current arrangement with FG...

Martin would be ousted if the current arrangement continues after the next election.
When faced with either continuing on in defacto coalition with FG , but pretending to be the opposition , while being ousted as leader or going into coalition with SF but remaining as leader of FF and becoming taoiseach, my money would be on the latter.

FF grassroots will not allow the current arrangement to continue.

blanch152

Matt Barrett wrote: »

I wish however there's a type of voter looks after A number 1 and they'll happily shift from FG to FF if it profits them. Choose looking at the small picture. As long as we've selfish people we'll have a number willing to vote FF/FG depending on what way the wind is blowing.
FG are a great example actually, look after number 1, 'our own' and then wonder why we've a growing class of people who can't get from one week to the next without some form of aid and then call them 'entitled'. We need rid of the pair of them.

By the same token, aren't those who don't like water charges and vote for Sinn Fein on that basis, only looking after Number 1, so they don't have to pay for water charges?

People vote for what they perceive will benefit them - number 1 - and that is true for how all parties get their votes. Sinn Fein and PBP pretend that they can get huge taxes by taxing rich people and sticking it to the man, so people vote for them on the basis that they will get something (more social welfare, more spending, less taxes on them) from it.

McMurphy

blanch152 wrote: »

By the same token, aren't those who don't like water charges and vote for Sinn Fein on that basis, only looking after Number 1, so they don't have to pay for water charges?

People vote for what they perceive will benefit them - number 1 - and that is true for how all parties get their votes. Sinn Fein and PBP pretend that they can get huge taxes by taxing rich people and sticking it to the man, so people vote for them on the basis that they will get something (more social welfare, more spending, less taxes on them) from it.

FG became none too fussed on Irish Water and Water charges in the end up also, lest we forget.


Minister for Finance Michael Noonan has said Fine Gael must get the “dead cat” of water charges off the agenda before an election.

Mr Noonan said their position on water charges had cost the party votes and seats and it is “entirely in our interest” to kill off the debate.

Bunch of populists.

christy c

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

FG became none too fussed on Irish Water and Water charges in the end up also, lest we forget.


Minister for Finance Michael Noonan has said Fine Gael must get the “dead cat” of water charges off the agenda before an election.



Bunch of populists.

So is the argument that SF are just no worse than the others? Inspiring stuff

McMurphy

christy c wrote: »

So is the argument that SF are just no worse than the others?

Or that the current lot are no better than the others. As blanch has already posted, clearly looking after No1.

However Mr Noonan insisted the “political priority is to get this off the agenda before we’re back on the doors”.

Half a dozen of one and six of the other.

Inspiring stuff

Riveting altogether.

christy c

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Half a dozen of one and six of the other

I broadly agree, I'd put SF marginally worse though but yeah I think best case SF would be about level