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Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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  • #4622
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,006 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    blanch152 wrote: »
    So Sinn Fein would have made a difference.


    No, because these were indicative votes only and the cabinet did not vote I believe. Some people that abstained will vote and others will change their votes. Even if one had more yes vs no votes it still didn't compel May to act on it.


  • #4623
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,267 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Yes if they vote down MV3 tomorrow, they can dress it up any way they like but to me it's MV3, the voting on Monday takes on a greater importance. If it's structured to ripen the different soft Brexit positions into one, that will get a majority.
    It may be a soft Brexit with a 2nd Ref. What Govn't or PM will then choose to ignore the will of Parliament, esp if nothing else is on offer?


  • #4624
    Laois_Man
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    Infini wrote: »
    Not sure they will be able to at that stage. If the WA is voted down a 3rd time I'd say thats it, it'll be dead entirely that will mean that a CU or 2nd vote will have to be decided on as a way foward otherwise the no deal gun goes off in 2 weeks blowing their economic legs off unless they vote to cancel Brexit.

    CU and second ref are not the only two options, and not the option that Teresa May will entertain in the slightest in my opinion

    If When MV3 fails tomorrow, she will be seeking a General Election next week and a long extension on the basis of that. These indicative votes will not influence her path.

    Although I still wouldn't be surprised either if she delays further again and then attempts to run MV4 nearer the April 12th deadline.


  • #4625
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,267 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    That could be right as the MV3 vote is mainly designed to embarrass Lb MPs, since if they vote against it they are voting against Brexit. Though TM leading the Tories into a GE would be totally lame duck.


  • #4626
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,517 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    Mod: Don't bring up the Sinn Féin abstentionist thing again.

    Post deleted. Next one will get a sanction.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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  • #4627
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Strazdas wrote: »
    I would imagine Bercow just wanted to show he is fair minded and is not being petty. He probably knows the WA has no chance of being passed.
    I'd imagine that without a written constitution where precedent is everything following the rules is important

    IIRC he was reminded of the rule by another MP and it's in Erskine May's Treatise on the Law, Privileges, Proceedings and Usage of Parliament.


  • #4628
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    robinph wrote: »
    Is there something that prevents them having an option A v option B vote?

    There hasn't been any talk of such a vote so far, and if they are only allowed to have option A (y/n) and separately option B (y/n) then we'll never be able to get past this point.
    With 8 options there's 28 different A vs B options.

    And they are only indicative and the cabinet didn't vote.


  • #4629
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,088 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Farage will be delighted :/

    UK Euro elections are list system. Farage will get bugger all.


  • #4630
    Laois_Man
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    Water John wrote: »
    That could be right as the MV3 vote is mainly designed to embarrass Lb MPs, since if they vote against it they are voting against Brexit. Though TM leading the Tories into a GE would be totally lame duck.


    My predictions for what they are worth:

    Teresa May will seek a general election and attempt to remain on as leader for it, unsuccessfully.

    Then the extension will have to be long enough to allow the Tory Party elect a new leader properly - not a temporary leader as per last weekends newspapers (wouldn't that take about 3 months?), then the general election itself, then time for the new government to talk to Brussels - so at least up to 31/12/2020

    Labour might decide to use the pre-election time to get shut of Corbyn. It will be a Labour + Lib Dems coalition. I cant see the same situation arising again where Tory's + DUP support makes a majority and nobody else other than the DUP will touch the Tory's with a barge pole!


  • #4631
    Inquitus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,778 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Laois_Man wrote: »
    My predictions for what they are worth:

    Teresa May will seek a general election and attempt to remain on as leader for it, unsuccessfully.

    Then the extension will have to be long enough to allow the Tory Party elect a new leader properly - not a temporary leader as per last weekends newspapers (wouldn't that take about 3 months?), then the general election itself, then time for the new government to talk to Brussels - so at least up to 31/12/2020

    Labour might decide to use the pre-election time to get shut of Corbyn. It will be a Labour + Lib Dems coalition. I cant see the same situation arising again where Tory's + DUP support makes a majority and nobody else other than the DUP will touch the Tory's with a barge pole!

    If May tables a VoNC in the Gov and it is passed, and then confirmed 14 days later, then the GE will take place within 4 weeks, regardless of any Tory leadership contest.


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  • #4632
    20silkcut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,739 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    Right. I'm not watching sky news so I'm just going on what is being said here. So why exactly has John Bercow accepted this motion for a MV3 tommorrow ? Did he say why ?

    Mv in time will become part of the black rod ritual.
    With a quip from Dennis skinner after the announcement of the result.


  • #4633
    Laois_Man
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    Inquitus wrote: »
    If May tables a VoNC in the Gov and it is passed, and then confirmed 14 days later, then the GE will take place within 4 weeks, regardless of any Tory leadership contest.



    There's ways around all that - if she can just get at least most of her party to agree to it as a way forward. All they have to do with the EU by April 12th is agree to participation in the EU elections - that's all the EU want confirmed by April 12th.....are you in our bloody elections or not!!

    Next steps regarding Brexit are pending a UK General Election - EU would be amenable to this, they've pretty much said as much. If the UK attempt to go to the EU with a proposal of a temporary Tory leader/PM taking things forward with no election, and which will change after a proper leadership contest, and then potentially change again after an election in 2022, the EU will surely tell them to get lost!

    The actual timing of the calling of the election is up to the HoC - Labour will support it whenever the majority of Tory's are willing to allow it to pass. Meanwhile, May stays on as PM until the new government is formed, but the new Tory leader or leader elect, fights the election as the would-be PM


  • #4634
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,157 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    20silkcut wrote: »
    Mv in time will become part of the black rod ritual.
    With a quip from Dennis skinner after the announcement of the result.

    Because the political declaration isn't being considered, the Motion is materially different


  • #4635
    Headshot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 55,862 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Question Time on tonight

    Set in Sheffield which was a very close voting for the referendum 51% leave 49% remain

    The panel are Damian Hinds, Jenny Chapman, Yanis Varoufaskis, Simon Wolfson and Merryn Somerset Webb


  • #4636
    Frank Bullitt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,262 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    Headshot wrote: »
    Question Time on tonight

    Set in Sheffield which was a very close voting for the referendum 51% leave 49% remain

    The panel are Damian Hinds, Jenny Chapman, Yanis Varoufaskis, Simon Wolfson and Merryn Somerset Webb

    That should be interesting!


  • #4637
    Beechwoodspark
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,092 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    Gintonious wrote: »
    That should be interesting!

    He is very anti Eu. Albeit left wing. I imagine he will give a soft soap impression of the situation.


  • #4638
    briany
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,318 ✭✭✭✭briany


    What is the game being played by dividing the voting into two over the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration? How does it improve the chance of getting past the house?


  • #4639
    CptMackey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,787 ✭✭✭CptMackey


    Is this vote tomorrow an actual meaningful vote or some other distraction?

    At this stage I'm confused to what is actually happening in the hoc


  • #4640
    ThePanjandrum
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 431 ✭✭ThePanjandrum


    Laois_Man wrote: »
    If When MV3 fails tomorrow, she will be seeking a General Election next week and a long extension on the basis of that. These indicative votes will not influence her path.


    The Tory Party will not vote for a General Election because May would be leading them in the campaigning. But if reports are true, a number of the ERG are prepared to trigger it which would mean the established Parties facing the Brexit Party led by Farage. Even if he does not win many seats, there would be a bloodbath with many sitting MPs having to defend their duplicity and losing bucketloads of voters and both Labour and Conservative will not have the support of their activists. Many of these MPs would be expected to sign personal guarantees to hold onto their support. It would not be a happy time for them.


  • #4641
    briany
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,318 ✭✭✭✭briany


    ThePanjandrum wrote: »
    The Tory Party will not vote for a General Election because May would be leading them in the campaigning. But if reports are true, a number of the ERG are prepared to trigger it which would mean the established Parties facing the Brexit Party led by Farage. Even if he does not win many seats, there would be a bloodbath with many sitting MPs having to defend their duplicity and losing bucketloads of voters and both Labour and Conservative will not have the support of their activists. Many of these MPs would be expected to sign personal guarantees to hold onto their support. It would not be a happy time for them.

    That all depends. If an MP leans to Remaining, despite representing a Leave constituency, they'd have cause for concern. But if you believe the talk of so many constituencies flipping to Remain, such MPs might just be willing to risk it. Maybe.

    Right now, Remain is the more politically motivated side. I would expect them to be out in absolute force in any UK GE. Look at what happened in 2017 when younger voters thought Corbyn was going to put an end to the Brexit madness - they helped propel Labour to a gain of 30 seats. Now, things are even more urgent.


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  • #4642
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,267 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    I'm ignoring the legal gymnastics of Cox. Taking it as MV3 variant. If it passes the WA is in play. Loses and WA is dead.


  • #4643
    Irishmale0399
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,249 ✭✭✭Irishmale0399


    The big question is if they dont get it over the line tomorrow how will the EU react???


  • #4644
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,989 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    briany wrote: »
    What is the game being played by dividing the voting into two over the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration? How does it improve the chance of getting past the house?

    Not sure it does. I think the move was more about getting past the speaker.:P


  • #4645
    Inquitus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,778 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Irishmale0399 wrote: »
    The big question is if they dont get it over the line tomorrow how will the EU react???

    Well she probably gets a go at MV3 proper up until the 12th April, if its allowed to be brought. However in the meantime they need to agree a plan B to present to the EU to justify a longer extension.


  • #4646
    DrumSteve
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,798 ✭✭✭✭DrumSteve


    Irishmale0399 wrote: »
    The big question is if they dont get it over the line tomorrow how will the EU react???

    There is a part of me that wants to see the EU call their bluff and turf them out.

    Let them **** or get off the toilet.


  • #4647
    woohoo!!!
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 801 ✭✭✭woohoo!!!


    Can't see how WA gets passed tomorrow. So then we move onto Mondays votes on April 2nd. I think by Wednesday Cornyn will introduce a vote of no confidence to try and trigger a GE.


  • #4648
    Irishmale0399
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,249 ✭✭✭Irishmale0399


    DrumSteve wrote: »
    There is a part of me that wants to see the EU call their bluff and turf them out.

    Let them **** or get off the toilet.


    Can understand your thinking....


    Was in Holland today on a business trip and the majority of our lunch guests (multi-national) were saying exactly the same. A few Germans at the table were afraid if the EU didnt stand up to them now then Greece, Italy, Spain or Portugal could be next to want out.


  • #4649
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,267 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Well it seems some LB MPs have an issue with the PD rather then the WA. So Govn't may be aiming also to peel them off to vote for the Deal.


  • #4650
    Westernyelp
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,413 ✭✭✭Westernyelp


    Inquitus wrote:
    Well she probably gets a go at MV3 proper up until the 12th April, if its allowed to be brought. However in the meantime they need to agree a plan B to present to the EU to justify a longer extension.


    If it doesn't pass tomorrow. It's a choice between crash out and long extension.


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  • #4651
    PropJoe10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,407 ✭✭✭PropJoe10


    Irishmale0399 wrote: »
    The big question is if they dont get it over the line tomorrow how will the EU react???


    I would say extremely poorly. I'd say it'll be a matter of either a very long extension or the total revocation of Article 50 if this disastrous shambles continues for much longer. Monday's votes will likely be a re-run of yesterday. This parliament is going absolutely nowhere.


This discussion has been closed.
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