Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

irishproduce · 23-03-2019 12:49AM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

One of the major mistakes was treating such a narrow win like a football match. 'We won, you lost, get over it'. That's majoritarian absolutism not democracy. Democracy would consider the views of those who 'lost' especially when it was so close.

Nobody in Ireland thinks that a majority vote for a United Ireland would mean that the views of Unionists could be disregarded - quite the opposite - they'd have to be incorporated into all future decisions.

Not so with other referendums like abortion, same sex marriage. The message is deal with it, it is democracy or as we repeatedly hear our politicians state with assuredness "The people have voted for ...".

I am merely picking out two recent ones, but the general rule with a referendum is that per democracy, the majority rule is what is counted.

It is actually treating the people of UK like children talking down to them about the costs of their decision to leave. Has anyone considered that principled people are willing to pay a price for things worth having?
Mightn't be what we want them to do over here, but they have chosen to do something and I am sure they are adult enough to manage the costs of that course of action.

McMurphy · 23-03-2019 12:50AM

Amirani wrote: »

Agreed. But same goes for those who vote for Sinn Fein in British Parliamentary Elections. Essentially spoiling your vote.

If the people of Northern Ireland had any cop on after this debacle they'd move away from voting for these 2 basket cases.

This gets regurgitated time and time again on boards (and elsewhere on the net to be fair)

Many of Sinn Feins voters vote for them because they abstain from the British parliament.

If nationalists wanted to be represented in Britains Parliament they have an option to vote for the SDLP, but that's showing no sign of happening anytime soon.

irishproduce · 23-03-2019 12:53AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Have to say it did cross my mind that there was something a little fishy about that document being made public at a time when the pm was critically trying to focus people’s minds on the looming spectre of no deal. Thought i was just being a bit cynical about it, though.

I suggest you are quite right to feel cynical.
There are backstage actors up to dirty tricks on both sides.
The ultimate desire of both is to stop brexit.

The Black Oil · 23-03-2019 12:55AM

Uri Geller is on BBC 5 Live now, Brexiting. Not joking.

Enzokk · 23-03-2019 01:18AM

irishproduce wrote: »

Not so with other referendums like abortion, same sex marriage. The message is deal with it, it is democracy or as we repeatedly hear our politicians state with assuredness "The people have voted for ...".

I am merely picking out two recent ones, but the general rule with a referendum is that per democracy, the majority rule is what is counted.

It is actually treating the people of UK like children talking down to them about the costs of their decision to leave. Has anyone considered that principled people are willing to pay a price for things worth having?
Mightn't be what we want them to do over here, but they have chosen to do something and I am sure they are adult enough to manage the costs of that course of action.

Do you really not understand the difference between the referendums held in Ireland and the UK the past few years? You are comparing apples to oranges on how a referendum should be run and how it definitely should not be.

L1011 · 23-03-2019 01:21AM

irishproduce wrote: »

Not so with other referendums like abortion, same sex marriage. The message is deal with it, it is democracy or as we repeatedly hear our politicians state with assuredness "The people have voted for ...".

I am merely picking out two recent ones, but the general rule with a referendum is that per democracy, the majority rule is what is counted.

It is actually treating the people of UK like children talking down to them about the costs of their decision to leave. Has anyone considered that principled people are willing to pay a price for things worth having?
Mightn't be what we want them to do over here, but they have chosen to do something and I am sure they are adult enough to manage the costs of that course of action.

You are comparing binding referendums, with sanctions for illegal activity; to an advisory referendum that it has already acknowledged would have been overturned and re-run had it been an election with the level of fraud from the Leave side; but can't be as it was only advisory.

Atlantic Dawn · 23-03-2019 01:22AM

Will make an interesting week coming up if we are told midweek it's a Friday departure, shops will be emptied of the basics, like the snow but much worse as people will be able to get to the shops without a problem.

23-03-2019 01:28AM

irishproduce wrote: »

Not so with other referendums like abortion, same sex marriage. The message is deal with it, it is democracy or as we repeatedly hear our politicians state with assuredness "The people have voted for ...".

I am merely picking out two recent ones, but the general rule with a referendum is that per democracy, the majority rule is what is counted.

Abortion: Yes: 66.4 No: 33.6% Turnout: 64.13%
SSM: Yes: 62% No: 38% Turnout: 61%
Brexit: Leave 51.89% Remain: 48.11% Turnout: 72%

One of these is not like the other.

Sparko · 23-03-2019 01:28AM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Will make an interesting week coming up if we are told midweek it's a Friday departure, shops will be emptied of the basics, like the snow but much worse as people will be able to get to the shops without a problem.

As I understand it the 29th is off the table now, regardless of what happens next week the new cliff edge is 12th April.

Charles Babbage · 23-03-2019 01:43AM

L1011 wrote: »

You are comparing binding referendums, with sanctions for illegal activity; to an advisory referendum that it has already acknowledged would have been overturned and re-run had it been an election with the level of fraud from the Leave side; but can't be as it was only advisory.

he is comparing the triumphalism and poor grace of the winners in both cases, not the advisory or binding nature of the referendum.

Strazdas · 23-03-2019 01:53AM

irishproduce wrote: »

Not so with other referendums like abortion, same sex marriage. The message is deal with it, it is democracy or as we repeatedly hear our politicians state with assuredness "The people have voted for ...".

I am merely picking out two recent ones, but the general rule with a referendum is that per democracy, the majority rule is what is counted.

It is actually treating the people of UK like children talking down to them about the costs of their decision to leave. Has anyone considered that principled people are willing to pay a price for things worth having?
Mightn't be what we want them to do over here, but they have chosen to do something and I am sure they are adult enough to manage the costs of that course of action.

Oh really? And where does inflicting pain on the rest of population who didn't vote for it fit into that?

Why should everyone sit back while a bunch of right wing English nationalists take a sledgehammer to their country.

hill16bhoy · 23-03-2019 01:54AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Abortion: Yes: 66.4 No: 33.6% Turnout: 64.13%
SSM: Yes: 62% No: 38% Turnout: 61%
Brexit: Leave 51.89% Remain: 48.11% Turnout: 72%

One of these is not like the other.

The main way the third one is not like the other two is that one of the options was completely undefined. In the first two the options were defined and known by everybody.

There is no defined version of Brexit which has majority support over Remain.

Brexit was an abstract fantasy.

The "will of the people" was for an abstract fantasy, and an abstract fantasy is by definition undeliverable.

Anything that is deliverable is highly unpopular.

Lesson: A referendum in which one of the options is an abstract fantasy, especially on an issue of such monumental importance, is insanity.

Capt'n Midnight · 23-03-2019 02:24AM

Sparko wrote: »

As I understand it the 29th is off the table now, regardless of what happens next week the new cliff edge is 12th April.

As the law stands the UK will crash out at 11pm on Friday.

It's up to May to not go completely out of her way to keep blocking the will of parliament.

4 working days left unless the Tories allow the House of Commons to sit on Friday.

Charles Babbage · 23-03-2019 02:29AM

hill16bhoy wrote: »

Lesson: A referendum in which one of the options is an abstract fantasy, especially on an issue of such monumental importance, is insanity.

It is insanity if you have an irresponsible electorate willing for vote for something not defined.

"If you don't know, vote No" from Irish campaigns was a reasonable position as if someone wants you to change something they have to explain it to you.

BonnieSituation · 23-03-2019 02:39AM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

he is comparing the triumphalism and poor grace of the winners in both cases, not the advisory or binding nature of the referendum.

What triumphalism occurred in Ireland?

Charles Babbage wrote: »

It is insanity if you have an irresponsible electorate willing for vote for something not defined.

"If you don't know, vote No" from Irish campaigns was a reasonable position as if someone wants you to change something they have to explain it to you.

That's the basic tenet of anything I ever explain to people when asked and if they still aren't sure come referendum day then I suggest they vote "no".

Solid mantra.

briany · 23-03-2019 02:58AM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

It is insanity if you have an irresponsible electorate willing for vote for something not defined.

"If you don't know, vote No" from Irish campaigns was a reasonable position as if someone wants you to change something they have to explain it to you.

You have to ask the question of how the electorate got to the point where they would vote for Brexit. It wasn't that insane that a referendum was put to the UK because their political class consistently failed to confront and defeat the rising tide of euroscepticism. Therefore, it was always going to come to a head.

Spook_ie · 23-03-2019 06:23AM

Here's a question to consider, given the EUs statement

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European Council Press release 21/03/2019 23:30
European Council (Art. 50) conclusions, 21 March 2019
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In response, the European Council approves the Instrument relating to the Withdrawal Agreement and the Joint Statement supplementing the Political Declaration agreed between the European Commission and the government of the United Kingdom in Strasbourg on 11 March 2019.
The European Council agrees to an extension until 22 May 2019, provided the Withdrawal Agreement is approved by the House of Commons next week. If the Withdrawal Agreement is not approved by the House of Commons next week, the European Council agrees to an extension until 12 April 2019 and expects the United Kingdom to indicate a way forward before this date for consideration by the European Council.
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Is there any point on discussing anything other than May's deal, that paragraph would seem to rule out every other option that people are discussing.

Joe_ Public · 23-03-2019 07:07AM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

As the law stands the UK will crash out at 11pm on Friday.

It's up to May to not go completely out of her way to keep blocking the will of parliament.

4 working days left unless the Tories allow the House of Commons to sit on Friday.

As the law stands it is currently Friday but that’s going to change to 12 April next week, isn’t it? The pm says in her letter to MPs that she’s going to seek a statutory instrument to make the change and seems she doesn’t need parliamentary approval to do so.

Joe_ Public · 23-03-2019 07:13AM

Spook_ie wrote: »

Here's a question to consider, given the EUs statement

Is there any point on discussing anything other than May's deal, that paragraph would seem to rule out every other option that people are discussing.

Interesting point but couldn’t see how alternative options like customs union wouldn’t be in accordance with the “spirit” of the WA. What i found interesting yesterday was quite a lot of analysts focusing on the accompanying political declaration which doesn’t get nearly as much attention but could turn out to be an important element.

Zubeneschamali · 23-03-2019 07:19AM

mrbrianj wrote: »

I suppose its worth think about how bad the No Deal crash out will be, in reality. It does deliver brexit for the UK, politicians will have followed the will of the people and stood up the the bullying EU. But it must be assumed that while Sky news is camped in Dover counting trucks, and BBC is busy covering the General Election/ Tory Leadership /Labour leadership battles, that in the peace and quiet some serious no BS trade dealing is taking places and at a rapid pace.

Well, no.

From the very first news of the first day of trade talks with the EU there will be screams from the Brexiteers that Brexit is being betrayed, treachery, this is not what we voted for, will of the people ...

Because, of course, the first items in trade talks will be the divorce bill money owed, rights of EU citizens in the UK and the backstop.

And this time, the UK negotiating team will be under real pressure as the port of Dover collapses, the M20 turns into a lorry park, hospitals start announcing the number of days before they run out of medicine x and y, panic buying clears the shelves in supermarkets, there are hour long queues for petrol, troops start appearing around Westminster...

Zubeneschamali · 23-03-2019 07:22AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

More than 1,500 people died on the Titanic, you want to turn the deaths into a political joke.

I was not making a joke, I was making a point about the foolishness of steaming at top speed into dangerous waters because you believe you are invulnerable.

Enzokk · 23-03-2019 07:31AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

As the law stands it is currently Friday but that’s going to change to 12 April next week, isn’t it? The pm says in her letter to MPs that she’s going to seek a statutory instrument to make the change and seems she doesn’t need parliamentary approval to do so.

I have seen it mentioned that it could be the case the if the UK doesn't pass the SI in time they will effectively be outside of the EU legally in the UK but still inside the EU outside of the UK. The EU will still consider them as members as the EU will have moved the date to the 12th April as exit day.

Zubeneschamali · 23-03-2019 07:34AM

irishproduce wrote: »

It is actually treating the people of UK like children talking down to them about the costs of their decision to leave. Has anyone considered that principled people are willing to pay a price for things worth having?

If the Brexiteers had run a campaign saying Brexit will cost the UK about 10% of everything they have, and they had still won, I would think that was mad but there would be no arguing with it.

But of course the Brexiteers won by hotly denying this, and the British public don't believe it still. They are going to have to learn it the hard way, I am afraid, and they are not going to be happy.

Will they Keep Calm and Carry On? Perhaps - many commentators believed that the Irish public would not accept the measures applied after the 2008 crash, but we did, we got on with it and came through. With some Blitz Spirit, the UK could do the same.

Or people could get really very angry indeed. Time will tell.

Zubeneschamali · 23-03-2019 07:36AM

Strazdas wrote: »

Why should everyone sit back while a bunch of right wing English nationalists take a sledgehammer to their country.

I understand it's not a sledgehammer, it's a Yellowhammer.

Shelga · 23-03-2019 08:53AM

Say it ends up being a no deal exit due to sheer incompetence.

Could the EU and the UK agree to some temporary measures to limit the catastrophic effects? Ie in the car industry, could they agree that 0% tariffs will apply both ways for up to 12 months, until more formal trade agreements are reached? In order to stop the immediate decimation of the car industry in the UK.

Or is this just wishful thinking?

listermint · 23-03-2019 08:56AM

Shelga wrote: »

Say it ends up being a no deal exit due to sheer incompetence.

Could the EU and the UK agree to some temporary measures to limit the catastrophic effects? Ie in the car industry, could they agree that 0% tariffs will apply both ways for up to 12 months, until more formal trade agreements are reached? In order to stop the immediate decimation of the car industry in the UK.

Or is this just wishful thinking?

Why should they.

The EU will agree to measured that keep planes flying and logistics working only where it solves members problems.

It's not there to give a free ride to the UK.

Akrasia · 23-03-2019 08:58AM

hill16bhoy wrote: »

The main way the third one is not like the other two is that one of the options was completely undefined. In the first two the options were defined and known by everybody.

There is no defined version of Brexit which has majority support over Remain.

Brexit was an abstract fantasy.

The "will of the people" was for an abstract fantasy, and an abstract fantasy is by definition undeliverable.

Anything that is deliverable is highly unpopular.

Lesson: A referendum in which one of the options is an abstract fantasy, especially on an issue of such monumental importance, is insanity.

Yep. If the SSM referendum was just to repeal all marriage laws, and it passsed by 2%, the swing vote could have been from people who wanted to marry their sister/hamster/favourite pair of shoes...

In ireland we hold votes on specific constitutional changes and then debate how those changes could affect our laws. In the Brexit referendum it was ludicrously vague and the leave campaign purposely avoided specific details of what leave actually meant

kalych · 23-03-2019 09:03AM

Shelga wrote: »

Say it ends up being a no deal exit due to sheer incompetence.

Could the EU and the UK agree to some temporary measures to limit the catastrophic effects? Ie in the car industry, could they agree that 0% tariffs will apply both ways for up to 12 months, until more formal trade agreements are reached? In order to stop the immediate decimation of the car industry in the UK.

Or is this just wishful thinking?

I guess the issue is the sheer number of areas that will require these mini-agreements. The EU will probably continue to act unilaterally where it may be of benefit to them and the UK are likely to reciprocate, like airplane access.

0% tariffs is impossible from an EU side based on the WTO rules:

Most-favoured-nation (MFN): treating other people equally Under the WTO agreements, countries cannot normally discriminate between their trading partners. Grant someone a special favour (such as a lower customs duty rate for one of their products) and you have to do the same for all other WTO members.

murphaph · 23-03-2019 09:07AM

Spook_ie wrote: »

Here's a question to consider, given the EUs statement

Is there any point on discussing anything other than May's deal, that paragraph would seem to rule out every other option that people are discussing.

The WA is required for any type of Brexit deal. If the UK chooses a softer path then the WA would still be a prerequisite to starting negotiations on that. The political declaration can be modified to state that the UK intends on remaining permanently in the customs union and single market.

prawnsambo · 23-03-2019 09:39AM

murphaph wrote: »

The WA is required for any type of Brexit deal. If the UK chooses a softer path then the WA would still be a prerequisite to starting negotiations on that. The political declaration can be modified to state that the UK intends on remaining permanently in the customs union and single market.

Yep. Which is why all the pearl clutching and hysteria about May's deal is wholly misplaced. Any future government can change the direction of the talks post brexit and end up in a completely different place from where it started. The only actual nailed on bits are the backstop, the divorce bill and citizen's rights.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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