Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

gooch2k9 · 22-03-2019 05:03PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The DUP have May over a barrel as the Conservatives need them to stay in power.

I think a Hard Brexit is inevitable with the DUP holding the balance of power.

If NI voters continue to vote for the DUP after this, there is something seriously wrong with them. Ditto those who continue to vote for Rees-Mogg and the ERG.

Northern Ireland voters are so badly represented by their politicians. In fact they aren't represented at all. Taxation without representation.

Ni voters will continue to vote as they do. Five years living here has shown that no matter how reasonable a person may be day to day once politics comes into question that all goes out the door. Until the "constitutional question" is answered for good politics will remain as is in NI.

judeboy101 · 22-03-2019 05:07PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

That’s fine for the dup but if they’re not going to get their obviously preferred option of a no deal, where does that leave them going forward? If parliament takes over from next week what cards have they left to play?

Their deal is with tories, not TM. They'll tell tories get rid or we walk. DUP still have their wee bit of the Empire north of the border and have a veto over all changes devolved. They will all be reelected next time.

Zubeneschamali · 22-03-2019 05:07PM

Shelga wrote: »

I know it’s a very complex issue and each country’s requirements and desires will differ, but those countries obviously think full EU membership isn’t the way to go either.

The reasons are the same as the real reasons for Brexit: sovereignty, control, independence.

If the Brexiteers had stuck to the reasons the Swiss and Norwegians had for stalling their membership, I would say it was silly but not crazy.

But they persist in talking nonsense about being better off outside the EU, and also the anti immigrant stuff, meaning they must leave the single market. Mad. They will never, ever get back the absolute fortune this will cost them.

Hurrache · 22-03-2019 05:07PM

seamus wrote: »

The question now is, after deriding her for kicking the can two weeks down the road, will they support the extension agreement in the HoC?

I don't think it needs support, it'll be an executive decision via a statutory instrument.

Frank Bullitt · 22-03-2019 05:08PM

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1109122261242519553

Well, thats that so.

Shelga · 22-03-2019 05:09PM

Why does no one ever ask the DUP- "ok, you advocated a Leave vote, what is your solution?" They get away with sniping from the sidelines, day after day after day. I'm so sick of listening to them.

They are just as culpable for this mess as they like to say May and her government are, and they need to be treated as such by the media.

Amirani · 22-03-2019 05:10PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

If NI voters continue to vote for the DUP after this, there is something seriously wrong with them. Ditto those who continue to vote for Rees-Mogg and the ERG.

Northern Ireland voters are so badly represented by their politicians. In fact they aren't represented at all. Taxation without representation.

Agreed. But same goes for those who vote for Sinn Fein in British Parliamentary Elections. Essentially spoiling your vote.

If the people of Northern Ireland had any cop on after this debacle they'd move away from voting for these 2 basket cases.

ancapailldorcha · 22-03-2019 05:12PM

Low quality post deleted.

Frank Bullitt · 22-03-2019 05:19PM

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1109123555474714624

The importance of the peace process for future trade deals.

VinLieger · 22-03-2019 05:24PM

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1109123555474714624

The importance of the peace process for future trade deals.

Slightly ironic considering its very likely the terms of a US trade deal and having a fully open border are incompatible due to what the US will demand from the UK

Dubh Geannain · 22-03-2019 05:25PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The DUP have May over a barrel as the Conservatives need them to stay in power.

I think a Hard Brexit is inevitable with the DUP holding the balance of power.

If NI voters continue to vote for the DUP after this, there is something seriously wrong with them. Ditto those who continue to vote for Rees-Mogg and the ERG.

Northern Ireland voters are so badly represented by their politicians. In fact they aren't represented at all. Taxation without representation.

It's about being married to Patriotism or Unionism over logic or economic arguments. There's nothing wrong with them. They are what they are. Most people are victims of one ideology or another; be it religious, vegan etc.

Look at the polls. There's still a large contingent want to crash out without a deal.

BobbyBobberson · 22-03-2019 05:30PM

I really do think, and there are a lot of them, the biggest hypocrisy amongst the Brexiteers is that according to them "You cannot ignore the vote of 17.4 million people" but in the same breath we can ignore that of 16.1 million.

Also whatever about voting Leave and assuming it would be fine, the amount of people that have no idea what No Deal actually entails is scary. I have never witnessed such an flat out shunning of fact. Its scary.

devnull · 22-03-2019 05:39PM

As absurd as it might sound, a no confidence motion backed by the DUP that results to the ousting of May is the worst thing that can happen now because the person that will replace her is most likely going to be a hard Brexiteer who will go for No Deal without any doubt as they'll win against the remainer.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1109120930289205248

If that is the case and it works out like that, then it may be beneficial for Labour MPs to vote confidence in the government in order to prevent no deal from happening. However you can bet your life that the likes of Jeremy Corbyn won't figure out that voting no confidence may be a trap to make no deal more likely, since he'll be more focused on an election.

jochenstacker · 22-03-2019 05:39PM

Dubh Geannain wrote: »

It's about being married to Patriotism or Unionism over logic or economic arguments. There's nothing wrong with them. They are what they are. Most people are victims of one ideology or another; be it religious, vegan etc.

Look at the polls. There's still a large contingent want to crash out without a deal.

I think that people who will choose an ideology over sense, reason and evidence do have something inherently wrong with them. If we could eliminate this unfortunate human trend, earth would be a much better place.

Seth Brundle · 22-03-2019 05:42PM

seamus wrote: »

The question now is, after deriding her for kicking the can two weeks down the road, will they support the extension agreement in the HoC?

I reckon they will be content with the crash out so don't care if there's an extension or not as long as they get the exit. A crash out brings them (in their funny little world) closer to the UK and further from the Irish Republic.

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

If NI voters continue to vote for the DUP after this, there is something seriously wrong with them. Ditto those who continue to vote for Rees-Mogg and the ERG.

Northern Ireland voters are so badly represented by their politicians. In fact they aren't represented at all. Taxation without representation.

DUP voters vote for the DUP because they have similar narrow minded beliefs. I don't think this portion of the electorate will be swayed too much.
As for the representation, definitley not within Westminster. In theory, they should be represented more accurately within Stormont but neither side seem prepared to sit with the other unconditionally.

ToBeFrank123 · 22-03-2019 05:46PM

Amirani wrote: »

Agreed. But same goes for those who vote for Sinn Fein in British Parliamentary Elections. Essentially spoiling your vote.

If the people of Northern Ireland had any cop on after this debacle they'd move away from voting for these 2 basket cases.

Both parties are essentially abstentionist, and sit on the sidelines parties, but also very reactionary. They wait for someone to do something and react virulently against it, particularly the DUP. And this is probably why they are loved by their voters, but surely even they can see through them at this stage.

ToBeFrank123 · 22-03-2019 05:49PM

Dubh Geannain wrote: »

It's about being married to Patriotism or Unionism over logic or economic arguments. There's nothing wrong with them. They are what they are. Most people are victims of one ideology or another; be it religious, vegan etc.

Look at the polls. There's still a large contingent want to crash out without a deal.

But how many DUP supporters work in places like Bombardier for example?

And how many depend on cross border trade with the south?

How great will it be to be closer to the union, but unemployed with no prospects for you or your children?

Anteayer · 22-03-2019 05:52PM

To be quite honest when you're dealing with a party like the DUP or some of the aspects of UKIP and the ERG, you might as well forget trying to argue logic and economics. That isn't what their arguments are based on.

It's purely an emotional feeling and identity politics. Many of them would seemingly rather destroy the economy than compromise on any of those.

weemcd · 22-03-2019 05:55PM

jochenstacker wrote: »

I think that people who will choose an ideology over sense, reason and evidence do have something inherently wrong with them. If we could eliminate this unfortunate human trend, earth would be a much better place.

IMO, this is the most worrying trend worldwide at the moment. People have absolutely no ability for critical thought, they simply have sides or teams, whatever you want to call it and blindly follow a pre-set ideology. And it's getting worse, more entrenched.

Anteayer · 22-03-2019 05:58PM

weemcd wrote: »

IMO, this is the most worrying trend worldwide at the moment. People have absolutely no ability for critical thought, they simply have sides or teams, whatever you want to call it and blindly follow a pre-set ideology. And it's getting worse, more entrenched.

You've also got a generation of politicians in the UK and US who've discovered that if you just throw any old nonsense into the ether that it will probably go unchallenged or enough people will believe it to get what you want anyway. If anyone criticises you just shout fake news or project fear. Or, you just say [opinion goes here] FACT! and somehow that also works.

Dubh Geannain · 22-03-2019 06:22PM

jochenstacker wrote: »

I think that people who will choose an ideology over sense, reason and evidence do have something inherently wrong with them. If we could eliminate this unfortunate human trend, earth would be a much better place.

"Something wrong with them" for me is an actual clinical medical condition. So I don't think there's anything wrong with them in that respect.

That people choose not to engage their faculties for critical thinking, empathy (interestingly 1 in 100 people are psychopaths) self evaluation/appraisal etc., while potentially a reflection of their intelligence, is definitely a result of being mentally lazy and embracing the warm feeling of being part of an ideology. The odds are stacked against them further by their peers and the confirmation biases that exist within their peers structures and who they have chosen to follow in the MSM and social media. In that sense you could say there is something wrong with them so I understand where you're coming from. But I don't believe there is something wrong with them in the medical sense.

Apologies if the post is a bit rambling.

mrbrianj · 22-03-2019 06:24PM

I suppose its worth think about how bad the No Deal crash out will be, in reality. It does deliver brexit for the UK, politicians will have followed the will of the people and stood up the the bullying EU. But it must be assumed that while Sky news is camped in Dover counting trucks, and BBC is busy covering the General Election/ Tory Leadership /Labour leadership battles, that in the peace and quiet some serious no BS trade dealing is taking places and at a rapid pace.

No deal wont be the long term status, within a few month of mild chaos - but before things get all Mad Max, there will be quite announcements of the new trading and travel partnership between the EU and UK ( and new laws to protect uk consumers etc.). The UK 'people' will be happy in the knowledge that they stuck it to the EU, and got what they wanted - which is slightly less than they had, and to their minds they have "won".

All this before we have to actually act to protect our market & control the border - that will be a slow process to start, and then only temporary measures.

Meanwhile, the EU is now dealing with stable UK, with all the headbangers gone off riding unicorns in the sunny uplands. Brino within 6 months. Regime change, Brussels style.

BobbyBobberson · 22-03-2019 06:31PM

Is is 2019 and this is reality in one of the worlds richest countries.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/22/secret-cabinet-office-document-reveals-chaotic-planning-for-no-deal-brexit

briany · 22-03-2019 06:33PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

I really do think, and there are a lot of them, the biggest hypocrisy amongst the Brexiteers is that according to them "You cannot ignore the vote of 17.4 million people" but in the same breath we can ignore that of 16.1 million.

David Cameron put his foot in it more than once on Brexit. On the morning after, he not only said he accepted the result, but also called on Remain to get on board with Brexit and help make it a success. I think it's these words which gave license to the 52% to lambaste the 48%.

I also think the biggest hypocrisy of Brexiteers is that they would never have accepted losing that referendum, and they would have found a speech telling them to help make the European project a success grossly insulting. Brexiteer politicians like Farage and Johnson were even banking on losing that referendum because their real plan was to ride a wave of Euro-scepticism to the very top echelons of politics, in a stable country.

arccosh · 22-03-2019 06:34PM

question...

How is this 3rd vote supposed to go ahead? I thought the speaker of the house pretty much stopped any potential of that?

Inquitus · 22-03-2019 06:35PM

mrbrianj wrote: »

Meanwhile, the EU is now dealing with stable UK, with all the headbangers gone off riding unicorns in the sunny uplands. Brino within 6 months. Regime change, Brussels style.

What Governmental change will we see in the UK though? Despite the complete omnishambles of Brexit, the Tories have generally polled better than Labour, it's only with the utter madness of the past 2 weeks that a couple of Polls have come out showing Labour with a small lead, a lead so small if it translated into a seat lead would require a coalition with the SNP to fashion a majority.

Meanwhile if the Tories manage to jettison May who is unencumbered by the possibility of a leadership challenge until Dec, they will most certainly elect one of the Brexit crew as their new leader. The MP's will whittle the contest down to 2 with a series of runoffs, and that final duo will be put to the 124k members of the Party who largely speaking are large majority hard Brexit leavers. This will leave us with the last ERG man standing as Tory leader, and likely PM, this would be Bojo, Gove, Raab, Hunt or Javid in all likelyhood.

If they manage to jettison May without the need for a GE then one would imagine there would be a GE in short order to legitimise this new PM. So in 6 months we end up with either a Tory, DUP coalition with a hard Brexiteer at the lead, which does us in Ireland little or no favours, or the slightly better prospect of Corbyn as PM propped up by the SNP which may bring us a much softer Brexit or a 2nd Referendum.

Regime change in London could be better for us, but equally likely could put us in a much worse position, with some sort of Tory managed no deal being the likely outcome. It would be much more comfortable to us, here in Ireland, if the results of a GE looked likely to bring about a more positive Brexit, but as I have said that is far from guaranteed!

Inquitus · 22-03-2019 06:40PM

arccosh wrote: »

question...

How is this 3rd vote supposed to go ahead? I thought the speaker of the house pretty much stopped any potential of that?

A majority in the commons can set aside Bercow's ruling, or he could say that with the extension agreed and containing the requirement that a MV3 be held, that there has been a substantial change and MV3 meets his criteria now, although MV4,5,etc. are now off the table. I would imagine due to the EU agreement he will let this final vote go ahead on Tues to pave the way for the HoC to seize control of proceedings in the middle of next week after MV3 fails. This would give the Commons 2 weeks to come up with a new plan to present to the EU ahead of the 12th April.

Interesting Odds on various outcomes:

prawnsambo · 22-03-2019 06:40PM

mrbrianj wrote: »

I suppose its worth think about how bad the No Deal crash out will be, in reality. It does deliver brexit for the UK, politicians will have followed the will of the people and stood up the the bullying EU. But it must be assumed that while Sky news is camped in Dover counting trucks, and BBC is busy covering the General Election/ Tory Leadership /Labour leadership battles, that in the peace and quiet some serious no BS trade dealing is taking places and at a rapid pace.

I think that's a very rose-tinted view of what will happen. The reality of a solo UK trying to make trade deals with countries and blocs bigger than itself (most of them) will be a hugely damaging exercise. The list of demands from such 'partners' will be long and painful. The truth of what a 'rule taker' actually is will then be pretty obvious.

mrbrianj wrote: »

No deal wont be the long term status, within a few month of mild chaos - but before things get all Mad Max, there will be quite announcements of the new trading and travel partnership between the EU and UK ( and new laws to protect uk consumers etc.). The UK 'people' will be happy in the knowledge that they stuck it to the EU, and got what they wanted - which is slightly less than they had, and to their minds they have "won".

All of this will take time. A lot of time. This is tearing up all the rule books and re-writing them from scratch whilst the unexpected consequences start revealing themselves. The UK hasn't even got the necessary expertise to do all this, having outsourced it to the EU for decades.

I'm not sure what you were basing all this on, but just figure what a multi-annual 9% hit to GDP for a country with GDP growth barely above 1% will mean.

briany · 22-03-2019 06:41PM

mrbrianj wrote: »

I suppose its worth think about how bad the No Deal crash out will be, in reality. It does deliver brexit for the UK, politicians will have followed the will of the people and stood up the the bullying EU. But it must be assumed that while Sky news is camped in Dover counting trucks, and BBC is busy covering the General Election/ Tory Leadership /Labour leadership battles, that in the peace and quiet some serious no BS trade dealing is taking places and at a rapid pace.

No deal wont be the long term status, within a few month of mild chaos - but before things get all Mad Max, there will be quite announcements of the new trading and travel partnership between the EU and UK ( and new laws to protect uk consumers etc.). The UK 'people' will be happy in the knowledge that they stuck it to the EU, and got what they wanted - which is slightly less than they had, and to their minds they have "won".

All this before we have to actually act to protect our market & control the border - that will be a slow process to start, and then only temporary measures.

Meanwhile, the EU is now dealing with stable UK, with all the headbangers gone off riding unicorns in the sunny uplands. Brino within 6 months. Regime change, Brussels style.

If the EU keeps pushing for extra regulations in NI in order to maintain an open border in Ireland, then it could be quite a while before we see any normalisation of the relationship.

If the EU gives the UK an FTA and agrees to a border in Ireland or some fudge, then this is giving Brexiteers essentially what they wanted in 2016.

Joe_ Public · 22-03-2019 06:42PM

arccosh wrote: »

question...

How is this 3rd vote supposed to go ahead? I thought the speaker of the house pretty much stopped any potential of that?

Supposedly by tacking an amendment onto it to make it seem different or by a parliamentary resolution. Wasn’t a problem really, but think it might be moot now because I’d have my doubts it’ll go before the house even as part of the indicative votes process. Just seems like another unnecessary humiliation for pm at this stage.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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