Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Hurrache · 22-03-2019 09:53AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The 29th is the legally agreed date. They have to vote

I understand that, but the question was if they agree to the extension May negotiated, many I'm sure won't like it and want to leave 29th regardless.

lawred2 · 22-03-2019 09:55AM

seamus wrote: »

What are the chances that the HoC won't accept the extension on the terms given?

There's something very Treaty of Versailles about yesterday's pictures of EU officials writing the "agreement" to give to May, no hint of negotiation going on.

However necessary we know such a move to be, it could rankle in Westminster.

At the very least at this stage, the UK now has clear outcomes. They still have their deal, no deal or no Brexit. But any notion of blinking at the last minute is gone, and there are are no more offers in the back pocket. Make your mind up by 12th April, or go.

The UK sent a letter requesting an extension. The remaining nations got together to provide a response based on consensus.

Treaty of Versailles?

Well I suppose you could take that view. You'd be wrong obviously but since when has that got in the way of the usual suspects.

Peregrinus · 22-03-2019 09:58AM

seamus wrote: »

What are the chances that the HoC won't accept the extension on the terms given?

There's something very Treaty of Versailles about yesterday's pictures of EU officials writing the "agreement" to give to May, no hint of negotiation going on.

What can we say? Brexit means Brexit.

Peregrinus · 22-03-2019 10:06AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The 29th is the legally agreed date. They have to vote

Under Art 50, it's the 29th unless there's unanimous agreement among the member states that it should be a different date.

So the UK has to agree to the new date. The question is, who in the UK has to agree? EU law is silent about this; it's a matter of UK domestic law.

The traditional view is that the conduct of foreign relations is a matter for the executive, so HMG decides whether to agree or not.

That's reinforced in this case by the fact that Parliament has legislated to confirm Brexit day as 29 March or another date that can be set by ministerial order. The whole point of including that last bit is a recognition that Art 50 does allow the possibility of varying the date, and ensuring that it can be varied by Ministers; it doesn't require an amendment of the legislation to be voted on by Parliament.

Plus, anyway, just last week the Commons voted in support of an amendment calling on May to request an extension from the EU. So, if the executive does need parliamentary authorisation to agree an extension, haven't they got it?

The only thing that could go wronig is if Parliament voted in the course of next week not to accept the offered extension, but to crash out on 29 March. If HMG ignored that and notified acceptance to the EU anyway, they's have a proper constitutional crisis on their hands. But that seems a wildly unlikely sequence of events; worry about it when it happens.

Akrasia · 22-03-2019 10:08AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't think this counts as a bone toss - everyone on the EU side said loud and clear starting weeks ago that the UK could have an extension to sort their sh!t out if they asked. May asked.

BERLIN (Reuters) - If Britain asks for a delay to its departure from the European Union, none of the existing members will stand in its way, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said on Tuesday (Feb 19).

They did not toss her a bone, they tore up her homework, showed her how it should have been done, and then sent her home with a note for the adults, assuming there are any in Parliament.

They've also given enough time for the HOC to dump May in a vote of no confidence and replace her with someone without any of her political baggage

oscarBravo · 22-03-2019 10:09AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

...they's have a proper constitutional crisis on their hands.

Or, as it's called these days, a Tuesday.

Mezcita · 22-03-2019 10:09AM

Am I missing something here? No deal by the 29th of March now at 32/1.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics

Surely an accidental no deal is much more likely?

Akrasia · 22-03-2019 10:11AM

The EU are completely in the driving seat now. The UK had 2 years where they could have negotiated a deal on their own terms. Now every moment is dictated by the EU and they're no longer shy about demonstrating it.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 22-03-2019 10:15AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

The Labour Party will whip against MV3 because party policy favours either a general election or a second referendum and, regardless of which of those you prefer, the route to either of them starts with voting against MV3. But there will be some Labour rebels who reckon that the road that starts with rejecting MV3 ends not at a general election or at a second referendum but at no deal, and theu will support MV3 rather than risk that. Question is, how many?

Do Labour have the numbers aligned with them to push a GE or PV though, particularly if it means the UK will need to participate in MEP elections? It's a dangerous game to play on the knife-edge of no deal.

joe40 · 22-03-2019 10:17AM

Shelga wrote: »

Can’t they table motions to either:
a) Apply for a long extension to negotiate a softer Brexit- ie customs union and single market membership. Long extension very unappealing, but so is everything.
b) Agree to vote for her deal, subject to it being put back to the people.

When the EU say the withdrawal agreement is not going to be reopened, could that change if the reason for reopening is to negotiate the softest of soft Brexits?

My understanding (limited admittedly) is that the WA is the only agreement which can accommodate EU wishes and Teresa May's "red lines"

I think EU are open to more negotiations if the red lines in relation to things like Customs union, freedom of movement, and single market etc are changed or relaxed in some way. I'm not sure about details.

But if UK are to abandon all the main pillars of the EU then the WA is the only agreement acceptable to the EU

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 22-03-2019 10:17AM

oscarBravo wrote: »

Or, as it's called these days, a Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday.

FYP :P

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 22-03-2019 10:27AM

Good god... I just had a chilling thought. Imagine Farage getting re-elected as an MEP!? I would almost rather have a no-deal Brexit than have to listen to him continuing to pull his nonsense in the EP

seamus · 22-03-2019 10:29AM

lawred2 wrote: »

Well I suppose you could take that view. You'd be wrong obviously but since when has that got in the way of the usual suspects.

It's the optics. It's always about the optics. What actually happened is somewhat irrelevant.

May asked for an extension to June 30th and then had to stand idly by while the EU stood around a table and decided what the actual extension was going to be (completely ignoring the UK's request), before handing it to her and sending her on her way.

It would be hard for a citizen of that country to not see yesterday's meeting as a national humiliation, especially with the photographic documents that accompany it.
Proper tail between the legs stuff.

Maybe in the UK this will be seen as a personal embarrassment for May rather than something that taints all UK citizens.

Zubeneschamali · 22-03-2019 10:32AM

Hurrache wrote: »

many I'm sure won't like it and want to leave 29th regardless.

Parliament had a vote on No Deal, and it lost 312-308 even though May whipped the Tories to vote for No Deal that time.

Peregrinus · 22-03-2019 10:36AM

Mezcita wrote: »

Am I missing something here? No deal by the 29th of March now at 32/1.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics

Surely an accidental no deal is much more likely?

But not by 29 March.

Peregrinus · 22-03-2019 10:39AM

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

Good god... I just had a chilling thought. Imagine Farage getting re-elected as an MEP!? I would almost rather have a no-deal Brexit than have to listen to him continuing to pull his nonsense in the EP

He's hardly ever there, though.

_Puma_ · 22-03-2019 10:42AM

Its blaringly obvious from Mays display last night that she is not calling any shots. She didnt say anything because she is not making the decisions. The people who are deciding things, (Likely the same people who advised Cameron to call the referendum and May to call the Snap GE) will be mulling over their options this morning at this very minute, in how to "frame the narrative" against the EU.

Very telling there has been nothing from the likes of Boris Johnson(Usually the dreg journalists posted outside his house have a few tidbits every morning ). Even more worryingly is it is likely the DUP are at the very heart of this cohort also.

This wont have a happy outcome unless the strings can be cut by May in calling a GE or 2nd Ref(Very unlikely going by last nights display). Otherwise the UK is going off a cliff (For the majority of the Population)and the people in this cohort will be very happy indeed.

In fairness to Macron I think he sees this and why he took the stance he did. He knows there is nothing to be negotiated with these people. The Eu deceleration was a just a last throw of the dice to show the UK population that no matter how these people try, the looming disaster cannot be framed as the EU screwing them over. No skin off the EU's back to extend the deadline another week or so and the onus is now firmly in Westminster's court. Sadly for us it will do little good.

BonnieSituation · 22-03-2019 10:48AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

April 10th, anniversary of the sinking of RMS Titanic
April 12th, anniversary of the sinking of HMG Brexit

April 11th, anniversary of my birth and my community rating deadline.

That means I'm sinking too I guess.

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Serious work again yesterday all. Just managed to get through what I missed.

Is QT worth a watch at all?

BonnieSituation · 22-03-2019 10:50AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I can't remember where I saw it, but someone, somewhere said LINO is the perfect name for May; hard to nail down but easy to walk over.

It was John Crace, the sketch writer in the Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/20/the-maybots-binary-messages-have-become-just-a-series-of-noughts?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Dubh Geannain · 22-03-2019 10:51AM

Note to self: Avoid Twitter and ignore any Brexit related bulletins on April 1st which unfortunately is a Monday this year.

prawnsambo · 22-03-2019 10:52AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

He's hardly ever there, though.

Oh no, he's there a lot. Otherwise he doesn't get to collect his per diems. 63% attendance record.

joe40 · 22-03-2019 10:52AM

As a result of last nights decision, we now have a definite cliff edge date. Up to now the 29th of March was a nominal date but there was always a good chance (not 100%) of some form of extension.

Now the real game of chicken begins. Do pro remain, and pro soft brexit MPs support TM deal as the lesser of two evils or do they gamble on been able to achieve "something" between V3 and the 12th April that will result in a longer extension, and participation in MEP elections

That "something" will have to be dramatic and historical.

I'll leave it to more knowledgeable people than me to call it...

Tell me how · 22-03-2019 10:53AM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

April 11th, anniversary of my birth and my community rating deadline. That means I'm sinking too I guess.

---

Serious work again yesterday all. Just managed to get through what I missed.

Is QT worth a watch at all?

Have a look at their twitter feed, they post excerpts from the show which will give you a vibe for what it was about.

It was on in Belfast with a member of the DUP and Sinn Fein in attendance so I expect it was a lot to do with people giving out about politicians playing party politics in the party politic centre of the universe.

There was an 18 year old audience member who made a point about how ill-advised Cameron was in his motivations for holding the referendum and she sounded wise beyond her years. And she had no vote in Brexit which sounds crazy as she enters her adult life.

Hurrache · 22-03-2019 10:53AM

Taking back control

Following more than an hour of explanations that with days left until Britain might crash out she could win over lawmakers who have twice rejected her EU withdrawal deal, May left the summit room on Thursday and the other 27 leaders conferred — finding a consensus that they were even less convinced than before, officials familiar with their discussions told Reuters.

French President Emmanuel Macron told the room that before coming to Brussels he had thought May had only a 10 percent chance of winning the vote. After listening to the prime minister, he said, he had cut his estimate — to five percent.

To general assent, one person present said, summit chair Donald Tusk shot back that Macron was being “very optimistic”.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-chances-idUKKCN1R30AZ

prawnsambo · 22-03-2019 10:56AM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

April 11th, anniversary of my birth and my community rating deadline. That means I'm sinking too I guess.

---

Serious work again yesterday all. Just managed to get through what I missed.

Is QT worth a watch at all?

Titanic actually sank on 15th April. Struck the iceberg late on 14th April. So 15th April is a Monday this year. Markets will be open and the Titanic sterling will sink.

Enzokk · 22-03-2019 10:56AM

The EU has just made sure that May and the UK cannot blame them for no-deal just happening. They have laid out the options to the HoC and a path to a deal is there for everyone to see. If the UK still falls into no-deal it will not be due to the EU and this is the purpose of the flexible extension dates. Yes there is still a deadline but the EU has given MPs that have been scared the past few days some reflection time and an exit. Either it is May's deal or it is sort it out yourself.

Hurrache · 22-03-2019 10:57AM

More insight into how awful the BBC have become, this thread from Rutger Bregman, he of Davos and Tucker Carlson fame, describes in this thread the farce he was put through when invited onto This Week.

https://twitter.com/rcbregman/status/1109002110455214080

Joe_ Public · 22-03-2019 10:59AM

Hurrache wrote: »

Taking back control

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-chances-idUKKCN1R30AZ

Sounds a bit overly pessimistic on her chances but don’t think she’ll get it passed all the same. Whatever chance she had disappeared with her parliament vs people speech on Wednesday night, a gaffe of historically monumental proportions, even by her lofty recent standards. Even labour waverers like Lisa Nandy in strong leave constituencies, who might have backed her, seem dead set against it now. At this stage I find it difficult to decide whether her vote failing is a good thing or not. Seems a very dangerous point she has brought her country to the brink of.

BonnieSituation · 22-03-2019 11:00AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Titanic actually sank on 15th April. Struck the iceberg late on 14th April. So 15th April is a Monday this year. Markets will be open and the Titanic sterling will sink.

That's my hope. I've a credit card that needs clearing that I've been delaying because of Brexit.

ilovesmybrick · 22-03-2019 11:00AM

EU wins itself some breathing space

This is just a complete misrepresentation of what actually happened from Adler. It's not the EU that's in the middle of a political and constitutional meltdown.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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