Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

ninebeanrows · 20-03-2019 10:08PM

The reality is the odds of the 3rd meaningful vote passing has now moved to Evens- so markets suggest 50% chance of it passing.

So her strategy is working

PropJoe10 · 20-03-2019 10:09PM

Dominic Grieve and Kenneth Clarke are the only two Tories that come to mind that actually speak sense on this issue. The Conservative party is on its knees.

boggerman1 · 20-03-2019 10:10PM

God the May bot is useless.a terrible waste of time of a speech.just crash out and be done with this mayhem

PokeHerKing · 20-03-2019 10:12PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

It's May's deal, no deal or no Brexit.

The EU need to say exactly this tomorrow and decline the UKs extension request.

Spanish Eyes · 20-03-2019 10:13PM

I suppose we will all know what this means if the pound tanks in the coming days.

If it doesn't well then, either there will be some sense prevailing or the markets are an illusion!

It's the economy stupid, and I doubt the markets ever thought that Brexit would happen ever.

Terrible for the ordinary peasant if it does, but not so bad for those who will benefit. From Shorting or whatever, and especially if your name is JRM.

devnull · 20-03-2019 10:14PM

The key words of TM speech were among her first

We will now not leave on 29th March with a deal

Essentially she is saying agree to her deal, or leave with no deal on 29th March.

It's completely irresponsible but that is TM.

Capt'n Midnight · 20-03-2019 10:14PM

BBC Scotland news, May listened but the ignored the opposition parties at the earlier meeting - so no change there. Still wanting others to accept her position rather than compromise.

the other parties wanted a longer extension or revoke

but s they are so small it won't make much difference

Headshot · 20-03-2019 10:16PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

The reality is the odds of the 3rd meaningful vote passing has now moved to Evens- so markets suggest 50% chance of it passing.

So her strategy is working

If I can get evens for her meaningful vote not passing, ill jump on it

dresden8 · 20-03-2019 10:16PM

Sky News saying Leo wants to avoid no deal "at all costs".

Cut to Leo saying he wants to avoid no deal..................

Spanish Eyes · 20-03-2019 10:18PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

The EU need to say exactly this tomorrow and decline the UKs extension request.

I doubt that will happen. EU will remain conciliatory as far as possible. Otherwise there will be heaps of sh!te piled on them for their arrogance in trying to keep the UK within the fold.

The irony of that!

But for a long time anything negative about Brexit was blamed on Remainers and the EU anyway. And it will be forever thus. The debacle of UK Government/Parliament will soon be forgotten, because they have a scapegoat right there in front of them forever.

Sad times. And so unnecessary too. Negotiations? Are you joking me.

bob mcbob · 20-03-2019 10:18PM

A last throw of the dice from TM and she is throwing everything at it (including the EU statements).

I think if she fails again, she is gone

gooch2k9 · 20-03-2019 10:22PM

The EU should be telling her not to bother coming to the summit. What's the point of her being there? She knows she needs to get that WA through before next Friday, why burn two days for nothing.

Plaudits to the SNP pushing for parliament to sit over the weekend, but no doubt that won't happen.

20-03-2019 10:24PM

bob mcbob wrote: »

A last throw of the dice from TM and she is throwing everything at it (including the EU statements).

I think if she fails again, she is gone

If she fails again, it's no deal Brexit and B-day will be the 29th of March, shortly followed by a general election assuming the next leader fails to retain control.

Joe_ Public · 20-03-2019 10:28PM

She’s a goner one way or the other. She has some survival instinct to be fair to her, but it’s beyond the bounds of reason that someone could come through this sh!tstorm and then carry on as if all was normal afterwards. Gone after next week, or at least made an announcement to the effect.

Strazdas · 20-03-2019 10:29PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

The reality is the odds of the 3rd meaningful vote passing has now moved to Evens- so markets suggest 50% chance of it passing.

So her strategy is working

I can't understand why. She just insulted the Parliament and suggested the MPs are a bunch of troublemakers.

igCorcaigh · 20-03-2019 10:30PM

Do posters think that TM, when it comes down to it, will deny parliaments will to revoke A50, just to say she carried Brexit out, in a form of a no deal?

Edit : and then resign

Sardonicat · 20-03-2019 10:31PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Do posters think that TM, when it comes down to it, will deny parliaments will to revoke A50, just to say she carried Brexit out, in a form of a no deal?

Yes

ballyargus · 20-03-2019 10:31PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I can't understand why. She just insulted the Parliament and suggested the MPs are a bunch of troublemakers.

That did give me a laugh. Nail on the head.

igCorcaigh · 20-03-2019 10:32PM

Sardonicat wrote: »

Yes

Yeah... Dangerous.

20-03-2019 10:32PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Do posters think that TM, when it comes down to it, will deny parliaments will to revoke A50, just to say she carried Brexit out, in a form of a no deal?

Revoking A50 is not Brexit, she appears to be saying she will deliver a Brexit, so I don't expect her to revoke A50.

igCorcaigh · 20-03-2019 10:33PM

Sardonicat wrote: »

Yes

And then resign, she carried the will of the people...?

Joe_ Public · 20-03-2019 10:33PM

Could be by voting for her deal they will also be voting to get rid of her, so there could be that attraction I’d guess.

bob mcbob · 20-03-2019 10:33PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Do posters think that TM, when it comes down to it, will deny parliaments will to revoke A50, just to say she carried Brexit out, in a form of a no deal?

Edit : and then resign

No I think she will stick with the 3 month A50 extension and let the next PM sort out the mess.

joe40 · 20-03-2019 10:34PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

She’s a goner one way or the other. She has some survival instinct to be fair to her, but it’s beyond the bounds of reason that someone could come through this sh!tstorm and then carry on as if all was normal afterwards. Gone after next week, or at least made an announcement to the effect.

Not only gone but legacy in tatters. History will not be kind to Teresa May.
When was the last time Britain had a competent PM.
Like him or loathe him but could you imagine Tony Blair getting sucked into a mess like this.
She has been totally manipulated by the hardline brexiteers throughout this process.

FrancieBrady · 20-03-2019 10:34PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

She’s a goner one way or the other. She has some survival instinct to be fair to her,

Survival, if you call clinging onto the boat and dragging the whole lot down -survival.
After all the shennanigans of the last 2 years we are in a worse place now.

Akrasia · 20-03-2019 10:35PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I can't understand why. She just insulted the Parliament and suggested the MPs are a bunch of troublemakers.

She's going for the 'Looking just crazy enough to do it' strategy.

She has to look completely uncompromising in order to face off against anyone who thinks she will back down or compromise at the last moment.

She's threatening the HOC with allowing a No deal. The only way she can get them to vote for her deal is if they believe she will actually allow the UK to crash out (and actively resist any attempts to prevent it from happening other than delivering on her WA)

igCorcaigh · 20-03-2019 10:35PM

That's my understanding too. Thanks for the replies. I has hoping she may revoke in the last moment.

Spanish Eyes · 20-03-2019 10:35PM

UK should have walked away the day they invoked A50.

A bit simplistic perhaps, but that seems to be what will happen a few years down the road and down to the wire anyway.

What were the last few years about anyway on the UK side. Arrogance, hubris, post Colonial crisis or what? I just don't get it anymore.

Oh yes, a Trade Deal. Forgot that one. So off they go and at this stage despite the effect leaving with no WA will mean for us here, I just feel UK needs to feel the reality of what they will be doing to themselves.

But no, that is not the answer. But honestly the UK has not covered itself in any glory or sense up to now. The wire is six inches away.

Donald Trump · 20-03-2019 10:35PM

Question. I hope it doesn't get too lost in the barrage of other additions.

I still don't believe it will happen, but hypothetically, who can revoke A50? I mean as in the logistics of signing and sending it?

Is it only the PM?

Suppose the government/HoC try to force her to do it on the last day and she just refuses or delays it until it is too late, is that it? Is it within her power to "block" a revocation like that?

Maybe the queen could tell her to f-off and do it at the behest of HoC if such a scenario played out.

I'm not saying it is likely. I'm just curious as to the actual procedure

trashcan · 20-03-2019 10:37PM

I honestly still think she has a chance of getting her deal through (if she can find a way to get to a vote on it.) Faced with her deal, or a no deal, will the MPs really let their country crash out ? It's clearly what she is banking on, and who's to say she won't pull it off. Having said that, no outcome would be a real surprise at this stage.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Comments