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Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,128 ✭✭✭Tacitus Kilgore


    Didn't Varadkar threaten to close Irish airspace to UK overflights?

    No he did not.

    He stated that there may be access issues to the "Single European Sky" to UK operated flights in a no deal scenario, which would be an EU position, not an Irish one

    https://www.thejournal.ie/factcheck-taoiseach-british-planes-irish-skies-4137889-Jul2018/

    I believe this has been mitigated regardless now anyway


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,608 ✭✭✭jaykay74


    Didn't Varadkar threaten to close Irish airspace to UK overflights?

    The Sun certainly thought so. The Irish times and other more sane publications didn't.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/hysteria-over-varadkar-aviation-comments-doesn-t-fly-1.3571565


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 553 ✭✭✭BASHIR


    No, he just stated fact about potential deals may needed to use each others airspace .

    https://www.thejournal.ie/factcheck-taoiseach-british-planes-irish-skies-4137889-Jul2018/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 438 ✭✭Robert McGrath


    Not sure I understand the support here for Tony Blair’s position on Brexit even if we do ignore his legacy with Iraq.

    In his interview last night he seemed to be saying that he would encourage the UK to stay in the EU if there were changes to freedom of movement.

    Is this not what the Brexiteers have been saying for 2 years of negotiations, i.e. change the fundamental rules of the EU to suit us and our whims? The four freedoms are surely central to the entire EU project and compromising on them for the now provably unreliable UK with its inclination towards bad faith would be a grave mistake.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,264 ✭✭✭✭jester77


    If it's true that she is only asking for a short extension and the EU reject it, can she then ask for a longer extension?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 301 ✭✭Ellian


    Forget his name - Ivor something or other - Mays senior servant in brussels, who repeatedly warned them from the outset that they were heading for trouble and needed to start putting planning in place. Result: they got rid of him (too much talking down britain) and replaced him with somebody (olly robbins i think) who would just tell them what they wanted to hear.

    Ivan Rogers - he has a small book 9 Lesson In Brexit that is worth a read. Total takedown of the no deal scenario in simple and compelling terms.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,882 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    No he did not.

    He stated that there may be access issues to the "Single European Sky" to UK operated flights in a no deal scenario, which would be an EU position, not an Irish one

    https://www.thejournal.ie/factcheck-taoiseach-british-planes-irish-skies-4137889-Jul2018/

    I believe this has been mitigated regardless now anyway
    Temporarily for nine months I believe. And only for direct flights to/from EU countries. No intra-EU flights. But the wider narrative of threats being made is one of the hallmarks of brexiter logic that defies what's written in Article 50. The treaties shall cease to apply. That's what the leave side voted for. A lot of treaties (around 750) not applying any more.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 875 ✭✭✭Anteayer


    jester77 wrote: »
    If it's true that she is only asking for a short extension and the EU reject it, can she then ask for a longer extension?

    Yes but I don't see her being flexible enough to think that one though.

    My theory is that the EU will just pull the plug fairly soon. It's become ridiculous.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,399 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    9 days to go and those in Europe continue to be bewildered by the UK as no letter received. Still early though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,113 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    I wonder will they send this letter with the same pomp and ceremony that they did with the A50 letter.

    Remember the confidence they had at that time. Davies bestriding the EU stage, Boris Johnson going to sort out the international order and TM to be Thatcher Mark II.

    An awful lot has changed.

    Well, everything but the basic position of the EU I suppose!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    jester77 wrote: »
    If it's true that she is only asking for a short extension and the EU reject it, can she then ask for a longer extension?


    Yes, certainly.


    Given recent noises, I am inclined to agree with Peregrinus now, that the EU will grant a really short extension, short enough that there will still be time to organize a long extension with Euro elections when the short extension achieves nothing.


    What the EU will want to avoid is a short extension that is long enough that the UK don't hold EU elections but then need another extension anyway.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,789 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    I wonder will they send this letter with the same pomp and ceremony that they did with the A50 letter.

    Remember the confidence they had at that time. Davies bestriding the EU stage, Boris Johnson going to sort out the international order and TM to be Thatcher Mark II.

    An awful lot has changed.

    Well, everything but the basic position of the EU I suppose!

    I'm not sure that the arrogance and delusion levels have changed all that much


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Given recent noises, I am inclined to agree with Peregrinus now, that the EU will grant a really short extension, short enough that there will still be time to organize a long extension with Euro elections when the short extension achieves nothing.


    What the EU will want to avoid is a short extension that is long enough that the UK don't hold EU elections but then need another extension anyway.
    What are you thinking, maximum 4 week extension? On condition that the UK commit to discussions on putting a longer extension in place?

    Sounds reasonable. But HMG are not reasonable, so I don't know.

    Despite what the EU has been making clear for months - that any extension straddling the EU elections cannot be a short one - it looks like May is going to ask for an extension to 30th June anyway, according to the media. Which the EU will reject.
    It could be a game that she's playing; she knows the EU will turn it down, which in turn will force the HoC to vote on her deal or revocation.

    The language from the EU is strong this morning, it looks like they're going to pull the plug if May's extension request includes any suggestion that she wants to use the time to renegotiate or gather new assurances.
    If the letter doesn't outline how she plans to get the WA to pass in the HoC, the EU is going to say "no more", and force the HoC to stick to their self-imposed deadline of Friday week (!).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,399 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    I wonder will they send this letter with the same pomp and ceremony that they did with the A50 letter.

    Remember the confidence they had at that time. Davies bestriding the EU stage, Boris Johnson going to sort out the international order and TM to be Thatcher Mark II.

    An awful lot has changed.

    Well, everything but the basic position of the EU I suppose!

    There's a few of these going around since yesterday
    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1108139303471853569
    https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1108275069371994114


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,196 ✭✭✭trellheim


    Letter not sent as yet.

    Labour making noises they will not support a long extension.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,399 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    There was a slight bit of optimism this morning with rumours that a SO24 may go ahead which is a standing order for emergency debates. Some remain parliamentarians were going to try get the extension changed to a longer period as it's likely May is only going to request a short one.

    Then Corbyn and Labour comes along and says Labour won't support it.

    https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1108312457456558080


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,264 ✭✭✭✭jester77


    I would imagine the EU will only grant a short extension on the basis that she gets the WA passed in a third vote in the HOC. Would that be enough for Bercow to allow it to happen?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    I think no-deal is likely at this stage. The UK will waste the last few days bickering about what kind of extension to ask for and for what purpose, and when they do eventually ask for an extension it seems almost inevitable that it will have to be rejected by the EU because the purpose is to allow more time for the UK to seek further concessions from the EU, or to better prepare for no-deal, or to give May more time to get the deal through parliament without any clear plan of how to do that. The UK has not gotten its act together in the last two years, I can't see it happening now in the next week.

    That leaves the UK with a choice of revoke A50 or go ahead with no-deal. Given the choice, I am not confident that enough MP's will have the sense to revoke A50.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,740 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    So, those following Brexit on Twitter will have noticed a lot of ridicule being directed at the halfwitted Eurosceptic MEP Daniel Hannan. He wrote a newspaper article in which he claimed that (a) Fianna Fail won every Irish general election from 1932 to 2007, and (b) they lost the 2010 election because they were perceived to have been weak in allowing a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

    This led to much Twitter merriment under the hashtag “#HannanIrishHistory”. Did you know that:

    - The Orange Order is a law passed in 1795 requiring all those living north of the Boyne to drink fruit juice for breakfast?

    - The ambulance siren was invented in Nenagh?

    - The Spice Girls count Cumann na mBan among their musical influences?

    - The Irish Potato Famine was introduced by the EU in 1996 as a punishment for Ireland rejecting Nice I. Only the UK stood by the Republic of Éire, loaning them potatoes in their hour of need?

    - The statue of Oliver Cromwell outside Parliament in Westminster commemorates the Nobel Peace Prize which Cromwell won for ending the Irish Civil war?

    And you can learn much more besides if you check out that hashtag on Twitter.

    Since Brexiters never apologise and never admit an error, Hannan had no choice but to stand over his original claim about Fianna Fail, tweeting that:



    Yeah, like Hannan’s take on Fianna Fail’s electoral history is even a remotely feasible interpretation. There’s interpretations, Dan, and there’s ignorance. Was that not also one of the things you were taught?

    The ever-vigilant Twittersphere decided that, if Dan could be wrong about one thing, he could be wrong about others. Like his claim to have “a Double First in Modern History from Oxford”. Other Oxford History graduates chimes in to say that this didn’t sound right to them, and before long an Oxford History don appeared to confirm that, yup, Oxford graduates don’t have double firsts in history or any other discipline; the double first is a strictly Cambridge notion. It’s only in Dan’s “interpretation” that he has a double first.

    Amusing, but also telling, because I think symptomatic of a wider problem. The Brexiter worldview simply sees the world as it wishes it to be, and then asserts that what it sees is true. And if one of its “facts” is questioned or looks dodgy, it simply sees the new “facts” required to ignore or dismiss that problem.

    And that’s what has the UK in the state it’s in today.


    Kids should be taught in how school that it’s ok to admit that sometimes they are wrong. Other kids should also be taught not to mock those who admit they got it wrong.
    This blind brazening out of ridiculous positions and viewpoints is leading us into an abyss.
    These people can’t and never will admit they got it wrong because it will make them look stupid.
    Better to believe wholeheartedly in a stupid idea than admit you might have got it wrong about the stupid idea.

    A lot of brexiteers are stuck in that conundrum.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,521 ✭✭✭bobmalooka


    The EP election is the true deadline, 29 March is an arbitrary one caused by Mays A50 trigger.
    I think the ‘cost’ of granting a short extension to the EU is quite small and will be granted to allow the possibility of finding a way to pass WA.

    There may be a feeling that allowing more time will allow more mischief by UK but realistically they have little room for that - they’ve tried to isolate the Irish position and failed.

    Hard decisions will need to be made when EP election time comes, allowing the extension pushed the ball back in the UK court.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,789 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    20silkcut wrote: »
    Kids should be taught in how school that it’s ok to admit that sometimes they are wrong. Other kids should also be taught not to mock those who admit they got it wrong.
    This blind brazening out of ridiculous positions and viewpoints is leading us into an abyss.
    These people can’t and never will admit they got it wrong because it will make them look stupid.
    Better to believe wholeheartedly in a stupid idea than admit you might have got it wrong about the stupid idea.

    A lot of brexiteers are stuck in that conundrum.

    admitting fault usually earns more respect

    but you need a backbone to start with


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    I think it’s good and important to laugh at people like hannan - love the bit in brexit uncivil war where Cumberbatch aka dom Cummings flashes a look across the table and says “unintelligent, like you Dan” - but this spread of misinformation and downright lies is very serious. The brexiteers aren’t fools. They know their garbage on twitter will be challenged and ridiculed, but thing is that garbage will still stand proud and unvarnished at the top of the pile and those who want to swallow it will willingly do so. Maybe I’m biased because I don’t like it, but I fear twitter does as much harm as good, if not more.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,399 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    bobmalooka wrote: »
    The EP election is the true deadline, 29 March is an arbitrary one caused by Mays A50 trigger.

    March 29th is the legal date to leave, nothing arbitrary about it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭Call me Al


    Ellian wrote: »
    Ivan Rogers - he has a small book 9 Lesson In Brexit that is worth a read. Total takedown of the no deal scenario in simple and compelling terms.

    He's speaking with Sean O'Rourke right now.


  • Posts: 18,046 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    If May had waited a few months, so Article 50 date + 2 years was past the elections, what would have happened?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,521 ✭✭✭bobmalooka


    Hurrache wrote: »
    March 29th is the legal date to leave, nothing arbitrary about it.

    I’m not contesting that it’s the legal (and indeed default) date for leaving.

    Just noting that the date was based on an arbitrary time scale imposed by A50 - a minor adjustment to it could be facilitated depending on the impact - my view is the real impact point is EP election time.

    On that basis I think there’s benefit in allowing a short extension rather than refusing (and allowing UK to push the narrative that they’ve been dumped out when they needed a short extension)
    Allowing the extension pushes the responsibility back where it belongs.


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 43,536 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    If May had waited a few months, so Article 50 date + 2 years was past the elections, what would have happened?
    Sam thing as March 29th - their MEPs (and commissioners) cease to have a valid security pass to get into the building!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,399 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    The ever changing tide
    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1108317673128189952
    Hurrache wrote: »
    There was a slight bit of optimism this morning with rumours that a SO24 may go ahead which is a standing order for emergency debates. Some remain parliamentarians were going to try get the extension changed to a longer period as it's likely May is only going to request a short one.

    Then Corbyn and Labour comes along and says Labour won't support it.

    https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1108312457456558080


  • Posts: 18,046 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Sam thing as March 29th - their MEPs (and commissioners) cease to have a valid security pass to get into the building!

    But the UK would have had to hold elections for MEPs?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    I think no-deal is likely at this stage. The UK will waste the last few days bickering about what kind of extension to ask for and for what purpose, and when they do eventually ask for an extension it seems almost inevitable that it will have to be rejected by the EU because the purpose is to allow more time for the UK to seek further concessions from the EU, or to better prepare for no-deal, or to give May more time to get the deal through parliament without any clear plan of how to do that. The UK has not gotten its act together in the last two years, I can't see it happening now in the next week.

    That leaves the UK with a choice of revoke A50 or go ahead with no-deal. Given the choice, I am not confident that enough MP's will have the sense to revoke A50.

    I'm beginning to get the distinct feeling that there will be feature length documentaries made and books and long journalistic pieces written about the malign, underhand, behind the scenes goings on over the next ten days.


This discussion has been closed.
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