Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Infini · 19-03-2019 08:10PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I agree that someone somewhere has to call the British shenanigans out.

Problem is, I am not sure if the French unilaterally should do it either. Send a strong message perhaps, but it should really be a united 27 front here.

But maybe France is saying what Germany is afraid to say for fear of being thought of as the Master of the EU or something that could be interpreted like that. Who knows?

Did I read somewhere that Farage was stalking the far right groups in EU to see if they would block an extension also? If that is true he is some traitor. But anyway, I must stay calm and controlled.

Blocking an extension unless and until UK has a plan or a goal (France) is a bit different to blocking it by Far Right supporters to scupper any progress in UK for different reasons.

We sure do live in interesting times. And I could have it all wrong too of course. No one has a clue really what's happening at all really.

Honestly there has to be a line drawn at some point and in fairness the French may even happily do it and take the flak just to be done with it. The thing though is denying them an extention isn't the same as an out it just means the British are being told you have simple choice: Own your political problem of your creation, cancel A50 and deal with it or crash out and own the far bigger problem of your nation disintegrating, your economy tanking and every other problem associated with a crash out because your government, your parliment failed in its duty to its people and put arrogance, idiocy and pride before common sense and duty to country.

As for Farage I'd honestly love nothing more to see a comeuppance for that snake should his suspected Russian backing lead to some serious criminal investigations into him and his dealings. Same with Mogg's as well another fecking waster and sellout. These people were never fit for their roles and its saddening that they're going to cause lasting damage to their country because people didnt see them for what they are.

dublinman1990 · 19-03-2019 08:12PM

The Seven news update from BBC Scotland reported some interesting info there. More info here on the BBC News website.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47627744

TM is doing some writing to Donald Tusk to ask for an extension to the Brexit deal until the 30th of June or possibly longer maybe stretching to another 2 years.

This would mean that she & other party leaders would now may have to mandate their own parties & candidates to take part in the European Elections in May. Some Brexiteers heads would probably even further now that the chances of them potentially voting on this WA again in the HoC will now not happen a significantly longer period of time or may never happen at all.

If this happens & if it is approved by the EU. The process of Brexit as it stands from TM may well become over even before it is considered again for a MV in the HoC.

Capt'n Midnight · 19-03-2019 08:15PM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Yeah, you'd think a few of the grandee's who would vote for the deal (Ken Clarke type of MPs) might be uncomfortable about voting down a speakers ruling.

JRM approved the speakers use of precedent in this case. So May won't get this overturned easily.

And then JRM pointed out that a new session would bypass the restriction. And that would suit the ERG as it's more time wasted.

It's not the first time JRM has pointed out how the rules work, and been ignored by the press. It's not a constitutional crisis if the workaround has been explained shortly afterwards.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWFtVzlmBa8

Blowfish · 19-03-2019 08:15PM

RickBlaine wrote: »

Here's a question (the answer to which is probably complete speculation at this point), if the EU27 does not grant an extension, would the government not be under huge pressure to revoke article 50 given that Parliament has already voted against a no deal exit?

Maybe, maybe not, as you end up with the conflict between an advisory referendum for brexit voted by the people and a non binding vote by parliament against no deal.

It's 'the will of the people' vs 'the will of parliament'.

MrMusician18 · 19-03-2019 08:17PM

Infini wrote: »

Honestly there has to be a line drawn at some point and in fairness the French may even happily do it and take the flak just to be done with it. The thing though is denying them an extention isn't the same as an out it just means the British are being told you have simple choice: Own your political problem of your creation, cancel A50 and deal with it or crash out and own the far bigger problem of your nation disintegrating, your economy tanking and every other problem associated with a crash out because your government, your parliment failed in its duty to its people and put arrogance, idiocy and pride before common sense and duty to country.

As for Farage I'd honestly love nothing more to see a comeuppance for that snake should his suspected Russian backing lead to some serious criminal investigations into him and his dealings. Same with Mogg's as well another fecking waster and sellout. These people were never fit for their roles and its saddening that they're going to cause lasting damage to their country because people didnt see them for what they are.

Mogg is a lot of things but I don't think it's fair to call him a sell out.

josip · 19-03-2019 08:27PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Tory voters are dying at 2% a year. So roughly one million would have died by now. Labour voting OAP's probably don't live as long.

Add in the teenagers who can vote now but factor in how few of them will vote and Remain would win today if every single person voted the exact same way they did last time.

And it was known at the time that the margin was made by people who wouldn't be around to live with the consequences.

CBA doing the maths again but a 21 month extension would probably take out over half a million more OAP's and add about the same number of voting teenagers, if they can get a good register to vote campaign going.

I thought that the majority of the oldest OAPs, those old enough to remember the war and the rationing afterwards, had voted to remain?
And that it was the younger OAPs, those who grew up in the 50s and 60s who voted leave.
So isn't it possible that the Leave vote would be just as strong a 2nd time around?

Imreoir2 · 19-03-2019 08:29PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Mogg is a lot of things but I don't think it's fair to call him a sell out.

Yeah, to be fair, cashing in would be a better description than selling out.

One wonders, should a long extension become the solution of choice, if the Brexiters who voted against the WA and who aproved of Mr Bercow's decision will suddenly become quite unhappy at not having the opportunity of voting for the WA as Brexit day disapears into the dim future.

Leroy42 · 19-03-2019 08:33PM

An earlier poster mentioned that the UK needs to own the decision and the fallout.

One thing that seems to have completely escaped the UK, they are totally focused on blaming the EU, is that the EU will have plenty of blame for the UK should they crash out and cause the type of disruption that is being forecast.

And whilst blame in of itself is meaningless, it will have an impact on future trading negotiations.

19-03-2019 08:33PM

josip wrote: »

I thought that the majority of the oldest OAPs, those old enough to remember the war and the rationing afterwards, had voted to remain?
And that it was the younger OAPs, those who grew up in the 50s and 60s who voted leave.
So isn't it possible that the Leave vote would be just as strong a 2nd time around?

I would not make any assumptions based on the age of the voters in the last referendum, after the punch and judy show that has gone over the past few weeks, it could easily go either way. It is really down to the no shows last time around and how they would vote if there is another chance to decide.

RickBlaine · 19-03-2019 08:39PM

Blowfish wrote: »

Maybe, maybe not, as you end up with the conflict between an advisory referendum for brexit voted by the people and a non binding vote by parliament against no deal.

It's 'the will of the people' vs 'the will of parliament'.

Revocation does not necessarily mean no Brexit. I presume it could be triggered again once they have a clue what to do (presumably under a new PM and probably a softer Brexit).

cml387 · 19-03-2019 08:40PM

There was an interesting piece on The World At One today about Erskine May (ok I use the word "interesting" in its widest sense).

He joined the House Of Commons as a filing clerk at 16 in 1831. Only because of his job did he actually put together all the rules and procedures of the Commons into a book which he produced in 1844 (by then he had actually studied law).

That a filing clerk's work is now enshrined as a vital part of that nebulous entity called the English Constitution tells you all you need to know about the current mess.

19-03-2019 08:45PM

cml387 wrote: »

That a filing clerk's work is now enshrined as a vital part of that nebulous entity called the English Constitution tells you all you need to know about the current mess.

It's important to remember that the UK does not have a written constitution, it has a series of rule books like this one.

trashcan · 19-03-2019 08:48PM

tuxy wrote: »

Has it been decided that they can leave current MEPs in place if they want to?
And if not won't they need MEP elections?

I hthink I read somewhere comments by a British Advocate General to the CJEU ( European Courts of Justicd) called Sharpston suggesting that this was a possibility.

cml387 · 19-03-2019 08:54PM

Deleted User wrote: »

It's important to remember that the UK does not have a written constitution, it has a series of rule books like this one.

Exactly my point. And he did it off his own bat.

And Magna Carta? Does she mean nothing to you? Did she die in vain?
Brave Hungarian peasant girl who forced King John to sign the pledge at Runnymede and close the boozers at half past ten?

Thank you Tony Hancock

Capt'n Midnight · 19-03-2019 08:59PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Not sure how many saw Liam Fox's tweet yesterday heralding great news on Brexit,
twitter.com/LiamFox/status/1107720401512206336

Well it turns out he was not quite so forthcoming with the details.

twitter.com/stigeidi/status/1107742222739558407
twitter.com/stigeidi/status/1107775152593534984

How bad does it need to get before they accept that they aren't going to be able to roll over deals.

And that other countries granting them continuation deals that suit those countries, isn't a win , especially if those deals are only for the duration.

And how is it going to work when they get to the big boys if they can't get an equal deal with these countries ?

It's time they admitted that getting good FTA's with the rest of the world is a pipe dream. It's like the best they can get is the current EU deal, and that automatically blocks any future deal the EU gets, looking at the Swiss deal for starters.

Kermit.de.frog · 19-03-2019 09:00PM

Peston saying Brexiteers are saying they can live with 9 month extension.

Any longer and the feeling is Brexit probably wouldn't happen at all.

johnmcdnl · 19-03-2019 09:04PM

Out of curiosity, has the Dail any similar rules that would prevent a government from bringing the same legislation back multiple times?

Capt'n Midnight · 19-03-2019 09:06PM

cml387 wrote: »

There was an interesting piece on The World At One today about Erskine May (ok I use the word "interesting" in its widest sense).

He joined the House Of Commons as a filing clerk at 16 in 1831. Only because of his job did he actually put together all the rules and procedures of the Commons into a book which he produced in 1844 (by then he had actually studied law).

That a filing clerk's work is now enshrined as a vital part of that nebulous entity called the English Constitution tells you all you need to know about the current mess.

More here https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0319/1037341-what-is-the-1604-convention-threatening-mays-brexit/
The latest edition, due to be published in May, will be the first version of the document available free of charge online.

The bottom line with the UK constitution is that the House of Commons can vote do damn well what it pleases. If there's a majority and enough time.

Imreoir2 · 19-03-2019 09:07PM

johnmcdnl wrote: »

Out of curiosity, has the Dail any similar rules that would prevent a government from bringing the same legislation back multiple times?

Probably, I believe in the case of the HoC the rule is usually used to prevent the opposition wasting time forcing votes on the same issue multiple times. Governments by virtue of being in government usually win the votes they put forward and as such don't usually have any reason to bring the same thing back again and again.

Infini · 19-03-2019 09:11PM

RickBlaine wrote: »

Revocation does not necessarily mean no Brexit. I presume it could be triggered again once they have a clue what to do (presumably under a new PM and probably a softer Brexit).

The thing is that if they're forced to cancel A50 they won't be able to just trigger it again as it would be deemed "not in good faith" in a court of law and instead of 2 years they'd get 2 weeks at best if they were stupid enough to try it.

The Brexiteers are howling at this happening because they'd lose their chance at their deluded fantasy, it's not likely the British Public will vote to leave a 2nd time after the disaster of a performance from the HoC and Mays government not to mention more will likely be aware of their rights and what they stand to lose by leaving.

Edit: Yet another reason why the UK could end up breaking up if they crash out as well..

D18wazGU0AEyse0.png:large

10000maniacs · 19-03-2019 09:13PM

I always assumed Stephen Barclay was a step above Dominic Rabb as Brexit Secretary, but his comments on Bercow's ruling today leave me flabbergasted.
"We need to see what is different coming towards the next vote, and if members of Parliament are changing their vote that does suggest that circumstances have changed." LOL

Capt'n Midnight · 19-03-2019 09:19PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Peston saying Brexiteers are saying they can live with 9 month extension.

Any longer and the feeling is Brexit probably wouldn't happen at all.

Of course they are asking for 9 months, the EU has already rejected that. What with the elections and all.

It'll be October by the time the new commission is elected.

And all the Brexiteers want for Christmas is Brexit ?

UK tax year starts in April.
But for the owners of the UK car factories the financial year starts in Jan. It's like these clowns are trying to cause chaos and aren't even pretending.

road_high · 19-03-2019 09:21PM

After all the never ending insults towards the EU and it’s institutions and fellow members- they’re about to come cap in hand again begging for help. Even May herself hadn’t averse to a bit of EU bashing to keep her in with the Telegraph and co. All this has been well noted and politely taken on the chin in Europe.
Which begs the question after over two years of this, why should the EU facilitate? Sure there’ll be trade disruptions for a while but sometimes you got to suffer a little pain to get a positive end result.

trellheim · 19-03-2019 09:26PM

The HoC can always vote to overrule the Speaker, it is its own master in that regard.

badtoro · 19-03-2019 09:31PM

To my mind revocation of A50 and the UK remaining an EU member is the worst outcome here. It's clear to the world from the antics of the past 2+ years is that key parts of that country are badly broken. Their education system, their meeja, and their politics. Neither do I wish to see UK MEP's elected to the EP. It would all result in so much more toxic, nonsensical, time wasting blather. We need to return focus to what's good for members who wish to be members.

Also I can't see the point in any A50 extensions. The HOC is a farce. Govt voting against it's own proposals and a quite useless main opposition party. Really, the tune was called and played and it's high time to pay the piper. UK out on the 29th, deal or not, fini.

We cannot control them, nor I think dk we wish to. But, we can refuse to enable this nonsense. They may now sleep in the bed they have made. There will be future trade negotiations, and let the EU settle what's left to settle with the UK at that time. Perhaps minds will be more focused with a dose of harsh reality.

An Ciarraioch · 19-03-2019 09:37PM

http://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1108101718263451651

Infini · 19-03-2019 09:38PM

badtoro wrote: »

To my mind revocation of A50 and the UK remaining an EU member is the worst outcome here. It's clear to the world from the antics of the past 2+ years is that key parts of that country are badly broken. Their education system, their meeja, and their politics. Neither do I wish to see UK MEP's elected to the EP. It would all result in so much more toxic, nonsensical, time wasting blather. We need to return focus to what's good for members who wish to be members.

It wouldnt be the worst outcome thats the crashout scenario. It wouldn't be ideal either but the conservatives created and owned this mess and it's likely they'll be out of government come the next election as this was all their creation and fault to begin with or its a hung parliment again. Regardless it will give those in the UK who still have common sense the impetus to take on these headbangers and try and prevent a repeat of this. Idiots rarely get a 2nd chance to cause a mess like this.

Laois_Man · 19-03-2019 09:39PM

ballsymchugh wrote: »

Farage isn't a member of any party at the moment, and given that the UK elect MEPs on a list system, unless he forms something pretty fast, or UKIP take him back in, he probably won't be back.
there will be a few complete nutjobs though, UKIP have absorbed a few 'filthy articles' since the referendum

He is making himself busy forming "The Brexit party"!

19-03-2019 09:39PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1108101718263451651

I would imagine the letter has one person drafting it and about 20 others editing it.

Irishmale0399 · 19-03-2019 09:41PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I would imagine the letter has one person drafting it and about 20 others editing it.

Your wrong...they cant decide how to start it....

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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