Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Infini · 13-03-2019 01:16PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Surely a People's Vote is the only way forward if this passes. The EU will likely veto an extension as it would be a waste of time otherwise. They might accommodate a general election but at the moment it looks like the Tories would win again.

Honestly I think the only workable solution is basically cancel A50 and revisit the subject after a 2nd referendum and if leave win again though remain winning ends this altogether. The cannot commit therefore they must quit (brexit). An extention isnt really an option at this point they need to decide once and for all and once they do they need to take a long bloody hard look in the mirror and sort themselves out. This shambles is a disaster of their own making and it shows them as a country of fools right now.

ancapailldorcha · 13-03-2019 01:16PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The problem is that her revenge is being taken out on all residents in NI.
For all the love the British government have for NI, they've a funny way of showing it!

The British don't love NI. It's something most people would never think about pre-referendum. It has no impact on mainstream British politics and I'd say most people would be happy to see it leave the union, Brexiters for the Irish border issue and Remainers to be rid of the DUP.

ancapailldorcha · 13-03-2019 01:21PM

Infini wrote: »

Honestly I think the only workable solution is basically cancel A50 and revisit the subject after a 2nd referendum and if leave win again though remain winning ends this altogether. The cannot commit therefore they must quit (brexit). An extention isnt really an option at this point they need to decide once and for all and once they do they need to take a long bloody hard look in the mirror and sort themselves out. This shambles is a disaster of their own making and it shows them as a country of fools right now.

Playing Devil's Advocate here but if I were a Brexiter, I'd be a liberal Brexiter. I would advocate staying in the single market and customs union along with all that this entails for however long a transition period until a consensus can be reached on the Irish border issue, free movement, etc...

Doing this in two years has been shown to be impossible. A mature democracy would have plumped for the Norway option with as many opt-outs as possible at least for the interim term until the deal could be done. Alas.

There is going to be another People's Vote march in London on the 23rd. I hope it makes a difference. They seem to have organised a lot of coaches.

Seth Brundle · 13-03-2019 01:21PM

Is it paranoia or stupidity? I can't tell at this stage.

DUP's Sammy Wilson hits back at Civil Service head

“I don’t care if he’s head of civil service or Santa Claus”, Sammy Wilson has said in a scathing attack on the head of the NI Civil Service David Sterling.

During Westminster's Northern Ireland Affairs committee, Lady Sylvia Hermon quoted David Sterling who warned of grave, profound and long-lasting consequences of no-deal on Northern Ireland in a letter on Tuesday.

Inability to prepare, EU tariffs and significant changes to exports could cause business distress, failure or the relocation of some companies to the Republic, a report from Mr Sterling said.

Mr Wilson replied: "I have no doubt this was written for a political motive." When the letter arose in conversation again, Mr Wilson said the letter "was a scare tactic".

https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2019-03-06/dups-sammy-wilson-hits-back-at-civil-service-head/

CelticRambler · 13-03-2019 01:22PM

joe40 wrote: »

In this this new arrangement is there any legal impediment to an Irish exporter sending their good to the UK market via NI
I would imagine there been massive logistical issues, but would it be unlawful.

Logistics can be overcome with a decent bit of software!

Produce raw materials in RoI as today, export tariff-free to a packaging plant in NI, seal container, send it to Dublin for transfer (unopened) to usual end-user in GB as today. Due to the enormous volume of movements, containers crossing the intra-Ireland border may not be all be physically checked but suggestions that the container never actually went to NI are outrageous ... :rolleyes:

Seth Brundle · 13-03-2019 01:23PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The problem is that her revenge is being taken out on all residents in NI.
For all the love the British government pretend to have for NI, they've a funny way of showing it!

The British don't love NI. It's something most people would never think about pre-referendum. It has no impact on mainstream British politics and I'd say most people would be happy to see it leave the union, Brexiters for the Irish border issue and Remainers to be rid of the DUP.

Apologies - had meant to include "pretend to" (in above quote).

An Ciarraioch · 13-03-2019 01:25PM

So, presumably Irish farmers would sell their meat and cheese to cross-Border processors, they then gets finished and packaged in NI factories, and then enter the GB supply chains as "NI" products? Edit - see CelticRambler's post above!

CelticRambler · 13-03-2019 01:31PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

So, presumably Irish farmers would sell their meat and cheese to cross-Border processors, they then gets finished and packaged in NI factories, and then enter the GB supply chains as "NI" products? Edit - see CelticRambler's post above!

Great minds! :pac:

Although they don't even need to be finished - much of Ireland's agri-output is primary ingredients for further processing; no reason why an NI wholesaler can't buy it and sell it on to a GB customer.

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The problem is that her revenge is being taken out on all residents in NI.
For all the love the British government have for NI, they've a funny way of showing it!

T'was ever thus. But if she is trying to shaft the DUP, the people of NI do have the option of expressing their dissatisfaction in the next election, and choosing representatives who are better able to negotiate in the interests of their country.

CelticRambler · 13-03-2019 01:34PM

BTW there's a noticeable absence of headlines today reporting sterling's SURGE against the euro. Up 1p/ct since the PLUNGE yesterday, to bring it back into 18-month high territory.

Enzokk · 13-03-2019 01:35PM

This is an interesting tweet and how, even if the UK asks for an extension we may see it rejected. The problem with this is if May holds a vote on revoking article 50 instead.

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1105798053171208192

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1105799662798323712

This is basically wondering if a deal has been made between LeaveEU and Lega Nord of Italy to not agree to an extension.

Inquitus · 13-03-2019 01:47PM

What time can we expect the No Deal vote? 7pm per yesterdays vote or earlier in the day?

j8wk2feszrnpao · 13-03-2019 01:47PM

Enzokk wrote: »

This is basically wondering if a deal has been made between LeaveEU and Lega Nord of Italy to not agree to an extension.

“Show me who your friends are, and I’ll tell you who you are”

strawdog · 13-03-2019 01:50PM

joe40 wrote: »

I agree with this. An extension will be hard enough to get but passing this vote will help.
A large number of the people rejecting Mays deal are doing so in order to frustrate the Brexit process or achieve softer Brexit.
This vote will give a definitive number on the hard brexiteers and DUP clowns.

As for the last bit I heard Nigel Dodds at the same nonsense. They think this process is like buying a used car, don't let the salesman know you are keen.

Yep I think tonight's vote is meaningless but still worthwhile having as it puts in the open more starkly the no deal nutters who have been camouflaged a bit by the various different groupings voting with them for divergent reasons. It might help clarify that the real choice is between the deal or revoking A50, otherwise minority of hard liners win, literally, by disastrous default.

Seth Brundle · 13-03-2019 01:54PM

If a former Irish PM can give his opinion on last night's events to the media then why not a former UK PM...

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1105789004165857281

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 13-03-2019 01:54PM

Inquitus wrote: »

What time can we expect the No Deal vote? 7pm per yesterdays vote or earlier in the day?

Yes, that's correct as it stands.

Enzokk · 13-03-2019 01:55PM

And it seems that lobbying of Poland to block an extension has been happening as well.

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1105812667384635392

It would look better for Italy if other countries are also blocking the request for an extension. I still hope that if they do this if the UK requests an extension to hold new elections, whether a second referendum or GE, the UK will vote on rescinding article 50 to avoid no-deal and then their lobbying would have been for nothing.

MrMusician18 · 13-03-2019 01:57PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

Is that a list of exceptions to the zero-tariffs? I.e., if it's not on the list, I can export tariff-free to the UK? Because if so, the Brits can continue to drink continental beers, wines and spirits (other than rum) at no extra charge.

But I thought the Brexiteers said that France (amongst others) would be demanding a great FTA to save their wine producers, and Spain would want one to save their tomato growers? And now the UK is going to give them unconditional free access to the UK market because ... they need us more than we need them???

How many feet does the UK have left to shoot?

The idea is that it will still be bad for EU suppliers to the UK as they will have to compete in the UK market with low cost goods from the rest of the world.

theguzman · 13-03-2019 01:58PM

Does all 27 EU countries need to agree an Extension? Because if so the Brexiteers and their Euroskeptic allies in Italy, Poland and Hungary could intervene to deny an extension and ensure a hard brexit.

MadYaker · 13-03-2019 01:59PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

If a former Irish PM can give his opinion on last night's events to the media then why not a former UK PM...

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1105789004165857281

Fcuk him! He deserves a very large chunk of the credit for this mess we are now in.

farmchoice · 13-03-2019 02:01PM

theguzman wrote: »

Does all 27 EU countries need to agree an Extension? Because if so the Brexiteers and their Euroskeptic allies in Italy, Poland and Hungary could intervene to deny an extension and ensure a hard brexit.

all 27 need to agree the extension but i would not put too much heed on all that stuff, in the past the brexitees have claimed that their allies in Europe would frustrate Brussels over various things but it has not happened once to date.

prawnsambo · 13-03-2019 02:02PM

theguzman wrote: »

Does all 27 EU countries need to agree an Extension? Because if so the Brexiteers and their Euroskeptic allies in Italy, Poland and Hungary could intervene to deny an extension and ensure a hard brexit.

Yes. It has to be unainmous. Section 3 of article 50:

unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

ancapailldorcha · 13-03-2019 02:03PM

theguzman wrote: »

Does all 27 EU countries need to agree an Extension? Because if so the Brexiteers and their Euroskeptic allies in Italy, Poland and Hungary could intervene to deny an extension and ensure a hard brexit.

The British have been historic allies of the Eastern States. They were instrumental in the accession of the Baltic states so I would say that those states would be much happier if the British stayed.

Hurrache · 13-03-2019 02:07PM

theguzman wrote: »

Does all 27 EU countries need to agree an Extension? Because if so the Brexiteers and their Euroskeptic allies in Italy, Poland and Hungary could intervene to deny an extension and ensure a hard brexit.

It's likely that a few countries won't agree to it anyway, a few have already come out the last week saying what would be required for them to agree to one, none of which will be met, and I think a couple were a flat out no regardless. Prominent German MEPs have said they don't want to give one.

Macy0161 · 13-03-2019 02:08PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

When will these pillocks get it thru their head....THERE ARE NO, AND WILL BE NO FURTHER NEGOTIATIONS HAPPENING!!

With May's red lines. Tonights vote is the next step towards the HoC taking control, which would ultimately most likely put a customs union (with likely close alignment to the Single Market) back on the table. Which would mean the EU would renegotiate. The EU has been consistent in no renogotiation with the UK red lines, not no renegotiation.

Adamcp898 · 13-03-2019 02:11PM

If there's a significant majority that vote against a no-deal tonight, then surely their response to certain "unpopular" members of the EU27 blocking A50 extension will just be to be unilaterally revoke A50 altogether, no matter how insincerely it was done.

Such a decision might not even be met with much disapproval from the greater EU given that the purported EU nations who would block A50 extension essentially represent some of the "other" issues that Brexit has been a distraction from dealing with for the EU.

s3rtvdbwfj81ch · 13-03-2019 02:12PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The British don't love NI. It's something most people would never think about pre-referendum. It has no impact on mainstream British politics and I'd say most people would be happy to see it leave the union, Brexiters for the Irish border issue and Remainers to be rid of the DUP.

had*

It very much does these days, unfortunately

Infini · 13-03-2019 02:15PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Is it paranoia or stupidity? I can't tell at this stage.

DUP's Sammy Wilson hits back at Civil Service head

https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2019-03-06/dups-sammy-wilson-hits-back-at-civil-service-head/

Likely its both mixed in with a dose of idiocy for good measure. There are times I would wonder why they keep giving oxygen to him hes an utter waste of space and unfit for the job.

demfad · 13-03-2019 02:16PM

Carole Cadwalldr has reported that LeaveEUs Aaron Banks and Andy Wigmore have met with Italian Fascist leader Salvini in order to block an extension and force no-deal.

Salvini was installed by Putin.

If no extension available the choices would be May's deal or Revoke. The former may mean the UK would be scrambling to get legislation through before and after leaving.

Edit: just to add it may be time to start thinking about no deal personal and community plans. Start thinking about issues facing local elderly if potential prolonged supply shortages. May not happen, but best prepare now.

Anteayer · 13-03-2019 02:17PM

Well we now have the problem of the parliament potentially being strongly against no deal, but also being utterly incapable of coming up with any acceptable deal.
So, we're back to cake-and-eat-it scenarios again where the only deals that would be acceptable to the UK are unacceptable to the EU as they're effectively undermining what the EU is.

I just cannot see how this is going to be resolved. They're unwilling to compromise yet they're also unwilling to exit without a deal and they're unwilling to even countenance asking the people to cancel Brexit.

steddyeddy · 13-03-2019 02:17PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Is it paranoia or stupidity? I can't tell at this stage.

DUP's Sammy Wilson hits back at Civil Service head

https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2019-03-06/dups-sammy-wilson-hits-back-at-civil-service-head/

I really think the loyalist community in Northern Ireland vote themselves into poverty by voting for these guys. Unfortunately now they have the ear of the Tory party and do for Britain what they did for the economics of loyalist communities.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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