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Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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  • #8612
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,227 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    robinph wrote: »
    Asking the question of what party MP do you want is also the wrong question to be asking if the answer you are looking for is to do with the deal/ no deal/ remain in the EU question. You should be voting for your MP based on who you think is the best for putting the interests of your local community forward for the next 5 years, not the single option of in or out of the EU.

    I wonder if there's any chance that a gaggle of sitting and potential MPs could get together and create a single-use-only "national unity for the negotiation and management of Brexit" party? Go to the country on the basis of a one-term mandate, arguing that neither Labour nor the Tories have been able to attract sufficient support for a single, workable Brexit proposal. Given the significance of Brexit for the UK, they could ask the electorate to suspend party allegiances for the duration of one election cycle and return MPs who commit to working together for the good of the country.


  • #8613
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,967 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Probably. But they are a small cabal and there is significant and growing pushback under Watson. If there isn't an election, 81% of Momentum members want a second referendum. If Momentum abandons Crobyn and McDonnell then they have no support whatsoever within the Labour party.

    They might be small but they are wielding disproportionate influence over Labour policy. In other areas like Health and Education, they might be in sync with the membership but on Brexit they are miles out.

    It'll be interesting to see how the Watson endeavour pans out.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #8614
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,247 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Has Theresa May just promised Stormont a veto on the backstop coming in to force!?

    I'm fairly sure she has just said that in the commons.


  • #8615
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,967 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    On another note, as someone who fervently wants to remain I have no idea whether or not I want the WA to pass tonight. Funnily how the Tweet from An Ciarraioch above only pictures little more than a 10% reduction in the margin by which the WA was defeated last time.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #8616
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,989 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Cryptopagan wrote: »
    No, Labour's proposals are for a permanent Custom Unions, removing the need for the backstop in its present form.

    And yet that will still not solve the border issue but it will go a good chunk of the way. You will still need to have some new checks between NI and the UK to ensure no borders but saying that aloud will not be the way to go for Labour as it will be spun that they are breaking up the UK.

    CelticRambler wrote: »
    OFFS - with much dramatic arm waving, Sky business guy reporting sterling's "tumble" and showing a 24-hour chart.

    Put up a 3-month chart, mister, so that people can see the big picture! :mad: Sterling has steadily risen from £1=1.10€ to £1=1.16€.

    "Nothing has changed" in the last week (unless you're into swapping huge sums)


    It has to start from somewhere though and it has lost £0.02 value in a morning in a currency that is usually quite stable against the EUR.


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  • #8617
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    They might be small but they are wielding disproportionate influence over Labour policy. In other areas like Health and Education, they might be in sync with the membership but on Brexit they are miles out.

    It'll be interesting to see how the Watson endeavour pans out.

    It will. There were 160 MPs at his recent meeting. Not a bad start.


  • #8618
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,227 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Enzokk wrote: »
    It has to start from somewhere though and it has lost £0.02 value in a morning in a currency that is usually quite stable against the EUR.

    I've been waiting for it to "tumble" below 1.15 for two months, preferably down to about 1.12-1.10. That's my starting point. :D


  • #8619
    kilns
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,525 ✭✭✭kilns


    What sort of numbers does she need? Taking into account the DUP wont back her now, some who voted against are voting with her this time etc


  • #8620
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    kilns wrote: »
    What sort of numbers does she need? Taking into account the DUP wont back her now, some who voted against are voting with her this time etc

    Check out the graph about ten posts up.


  • #8621
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,989 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    kilns wrote: »
    What sort of numbers does she need? Taking into account the DUP wont back her now, some who voted against are voting with her this time etc


    She needs 115 MPs to change their minds from the last vote. At last count she is at 10.

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1105481060714987521

    So worst case scenario is she loses by a small enough margin to give May the will to fight for another vote in a few weeks instead of resigning, right?


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  • #8622
    kilns
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,525 ✭✭✭kilns


    I wonder what are the chances more Labour jump ship and vote for the deal too?


  • #8623
    Seth Brundle
    Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 43,058 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    PokeHerKing wrote: »
    What could sinn fein do to stop a hard BREXIT?
    They could pop into Westminster and encourage every MP to side with them and support a hard Brexit. That will get everyone in behind May before long.


  • #8624
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,076 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    TM has just stated in HoC
    May says the government will legislate to ensure that regulatory standards in Great Britain remain the same as in Nothern Ireland. This will address concerns that the backstop could lead to regulatory divergence between NI and GB.

    The government has already promised to do this, but May is now committing to make this a legislative obligation.

    So if Ni remains in the backstop, basically the whole of the UK will remain aligned to EU standards?


  • #8625
    Seth Brundle
    Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 43,058 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    kilns wrote: »
    I wonder what are the chances more Labour jump ship and vote for the deal too?
    Well their leader had this to say earlier...

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1105367225051996161


  • #8626
    boggerman1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,069 ✭✭✭boggerman1


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    TM has just stated in HoC


    So if Ni remains in the backstop, basically the whole of the UK will remain aligned to EU standards?

    Making it up as she goes along.its plain to see the pressure has got to the woman and someone needs to shout enough is enough.


  • #8627
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,247 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The Moggster is on Sky News now.

    ERG have not decided yet. They are meeting later. They are weighing risk of no Brexit against DUP concerns.

    i.e very possible they could still back the deal.


  • #8628
    kilns
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,525 ✭✭✭kilns


    Seth Brundle wrote: »
    Well their leader had this to say earlier...

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1105367225051996161

    Corbyn is a lame duck also, Labour MPs could easily go against his wishes. If Labour had strong leadership, a GE would be the best solution, take away all the power the DUP and ERG have


  • #8629
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,758 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    The Moggster is on Sky News now.

    ERG have not decided yet. They are meeting later. They are weighing risk of no Brexit against DUP concerns.

    i.e very possible they could still back the deal.

    ERG don't give two shoites about the DUP


  • #8630
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    ToBeFrank123 wrote: »
    And this hardline attitude makes a hard border all the more likely.


    A hard Brexit with a hard border on the Island will decimate NI, and make a United Ireland more likely as moderates look across the hard border at EU membership. SF win again.


  • #8631
    kilns
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,525 ✭✭✭kilns


    lawred2 wrote: »
    ERG don't give two shoites about the DUP

    He is very dangerous, he holds so much power, if the ERG decide to en bloc support May, you can be sure he financially will be ready i.e going long GBP and will make millions


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  • #8632
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    ToBeFrank123 wrote: »
    Why have people trouble accepting the least worst option? There's no good options, just the least worst one. The worst one is Hard Brexit, the least worst is WA. Simple!


    Wrong!


    The least worst is Remain.


  • #8633
    Hurrache
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,385 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    The Moggster is on Sky News now.

    ERG have not decided yet. They are meeting later. They are weighing risk of no Brexit against DUP concerns.

    i.e very possible they could still back the deal.

    Or just as likely, if not more, abstain.


  • #8634
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,461 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    lawred2 wrote: »
    ERG don't give two shoites about the DUP
    ERG only give shoites about the ERG.


  • #8635
    robindch
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,461 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    So if Ni remains in the backstop, basically the whole of the UK will remain aligned to EU standards?
    If NI remains in the Customs' Union (which it has to do in order to avoid a border between RofI and NI, as required by the GFA), then (in order to prevent a border between NI and GB, as required by the DUP) GB must remain within the Customs' Union too.

    Customs' Union membership means remaining subject to ECJ rulings and that was one of the red lines which TM plonked onto the floor, apparently before she'd either understood what the Customs' Union is, nor what the ECJ is for, nor anything at all about NI, RofI or the GFA.

    It's all a bit three-letter-acronymy.


  • #8636
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,076 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    robindch wrote: »
    If NI remains in the Customs' Union (which it has to do in order to avoid a border between RofI and NI, as required by the GFA), then (in order to prevent a border between NI and GB, as required by the DUP) GB must remain within the Customs' Union too.

    Customs' Union membership means remaining subject to ECJ rulings and that was one of the red lines which TM plonked onto the floor, apparently before she'd either understood what the Customs' Union is, nor what the ECJ is for, nor anything at all about NI, RofI or the GFA.

    It's all a bit three-letter-acronymy.

    Yes, thats my point. But stating she will legislate for the standards to remain aligned hasn't she just acknowledged that they won't be doing any trade deals that are outside of the current EU regulations, which of course narrows down, considerably, the trade deals available?


  • #8637
    ToBeFrank123
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 2,176 ✭✭✭ToBeFrank123


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    Wrong!


    The least worst is Remain.

    Very very unlikely to happen at this stage. That ship has sailed. A hard Brexit is far more likely than remain.


  • #8638
    joe40
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,813 ✭✭✭joe40


    This might be a bit simplistic but what do people see as the likely outcomes here

    1Passing WA tonight
    2Not passing WA, no deal exit on the 29th
    3Extension of article 50 for a few Months, go through this same nonsense again
    4Second referendum
    5GE
    6Labour win go for customs union
    7Tories win... I'm at a loss now

    I give up trying to second guess this whole shambles


  • #8639
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,150 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    This feels like The Simpsons, the first handful of seasons were entertaining but now its showed its age and humour, and now there seems to be no end to it.


  • #8640
    joe40
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,813 ✭✭✭joe40


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    Yes, thats my point. But stating she will legislate for the standards to remain aligned hasn't she just acknowledged that they won't be doing any trade deals that are outside of the current EU regulations, which of course narrows down, considerably, the trade deals available?

    I would love them to spell out exactly what EU regulations they don't like. Tell their people that


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  • #8641
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    So if Ni remains in the backstop, basically the whole of the UK will remain aligned to EU standards?

    But they are trying to spin it that GB doesn't remain in the backstop because only NI need to to meet the GFA, but that in order that NI and GB are not doing anything differently to upset the DUP they will form a stopback between GB and NI so that everything is aligned. But despite the name and appearances a stopback is absolutely nothing like a backstop. Nope, not at all the same thing whatsoever.


This discussion has been closed.
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