Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Im a bit late to the party - have the DUP made their intentions clear - seeing 'not opposed to extension' and 'everything hinges on DUP' - but no Yay or nay -

catching up ATM

The deal or no Brexit getting some ERG traction

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1105443867799834624

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The line from the EU is there would only be an extension for a meaningful reason.

Extension to negotiate a new agreement? Nope
Extension for further legally binding clarifications? Unlikely - The EU have given all they will give after last night.
Extension for GE in the UK? - unlikely - deckchairs on the Titanic and all that.

This leaves extension for a second referendum, ie 21 month extension. I can't see the Conservatives going for that.

So it is very possible the UK's membership will lapse on 29th March unless another last minute fudge can be found.

Assuming May's deal tanks today, then they will go through the motions of voting against a no deal and voting for an extension. If the EU believes that a snap election were to take place, or a second referendum, then they would grant an extension. Basically, for Brexiteers, it would mean No Deal or a soft Brexit/Remain.

Ulster officially says NO it seems! It all depends on how many of the ERG split off and vote for the deal worried about the possibility of no Brexit. Personally I can't see this getting through without the DUP, there are not enough Labour leavers to swing it.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

1/33 with Paddy Power on it being defeated.

Aye that sounds about right, tonight will be fun!

Cryptopagan wrote: »

Why would the EU refuse if it was to enable a referendum or ge? Those would be positive developments.

I don't see a GE as positive unless Corybn gets his **** together

Corbyn is a disaster. However, a snap GE right now would essentially be a Brexit referendum. With, probably, the Tories campaigning on a relatively hardish Brexit and Labour campaigning on a relatively softish Brexit/second referendum.

Laois_Man wrote: »

If it achieves noting else but removes the DUP influence, it's worth it!

Border down the Irish sea happens immediately!

If the polls are to be believed we'll end up with a hard Brexit leader of the Tories and a Tory majority, not sure that's a direction we want them to move in?

I'd happily take a border in the Irish sea though.

Presumably, a loss this evening for May would seriously raise the prospect of another no-confidence motion. Labour have indicated that they will only table one when they feel it can pass, and Ian Blackford said this morning that the SNP would support any no-confidence motion.

A no-confidence motion passing would precipitate a request for A50 extension presumably, but would tabling such a motion immediately change the timeline on Wednesday & Thursday's "no-deal" and A50 extension votes respectively, whether it is carried or not?

jmayo wrote: »

If there is extension beyond summer then they have to run European elections.

Otherwise all decisions by EU parliament could be legally argued as being null and void, including agreements on things like the commission.

Hell the UK will have to appoint replacement for or leave commissioner Julian King in his job.

Imagine what a European election will look like in Britain if Brexit is postponed ?

What platform would the parties run their candidates on ?

probably remain or leave

ToBeFrank123 wrote:

It would be gas if they replaced the DUP as holding the balance of power. Pie in the sky I know. But its a shame large sections of the nationalist community have essentially no say in Brexit.

They have the Irish government and the EU fighting their corner. An infinitely better option than a few votes in the HoC.

Enzokk wrote: »

The new question now is will May survive the week? She has astounded me in being able to come back from the brink many times before but surely now this has to be it for her if she loses the vote tonight. She has said she will go and get changes and herself voted for it, then comes back with the same deal and tries to sell it as new and expects it to pass and keep her job if it doesn't?

The pound has been reacting to this news.

https://twitter.com/RJPartington/status/1105425643175579649

There's another yacht for someone.

Cryptopagan wrote: »

If May’s deal is rejected, and a request for an extension to Article 50 is rebuffed on the grounds that she isn’t offering any alternative way forward, that’s when a second referendum might become acceptable to parliament.

I heard Peter Kyle say at the weekend that he & Wilson were sitting on their amendment "until the time is right". Could be that that time will be next week: - May puts the same WA to a vote with a (legally binding ) guarantee to put it to a people's vote;
- WA passes at the eleventh hour;
- TM goes to EU to ask for an extension to hold the referendum, EU says fine, but minimum 21 months and put "no Brexit" on the ballot paper;
- TM says "thanks, that gives me time to kick the people's vote into the future and keep my place in No.10";
- Lots of huffing and puffing in the HoC but ERG and DUP secretly happy they don't have to face the music of a choatic Brexit next month, Labour happy that they've scored a win of sorts, Remainers happy that they've got a year or more to prepare for a second ref.

Nalani Crashing Scabies wrote: »

time and again people peddle this nonsense

the SF MPs are elected on an abstentionist platform, and were elected as so in 2017.

We all know that, but your country calls and you choose whether to answer or not.