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Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • #8282
    54and56
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,863 ✭✭✭54and56


    bilston wrote: »
    The issue for the ERG might be the use of the word "reducing" rather than "removing" when it comes to describing the risk of Britain getting stuck in a backstop indefinitely.

    At least according to Sky.

    HTF did JRM subject his ERG group to the will of the DUP? Does he miss being dominated in Eton or what?


  • #8283
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,567 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    The EU will be OK with the media spreading the fantasy that the UK has secured legally binding changes if it helps pass the House of Commons vote tomorrow. The facts are pretty clear regardless of the media commentary - the UK haven't secured any legally binding changes.

    I must admit that I am surprised that the EU has stuck with Ireland and the backstop right throughout this process without any major compromises. It's a big coup for the Irish Government in my view.
    It would open up an appalling vista for the EU if they were seen to even slightly dump on a member in favour of a member leaving. Especially in the circumstances of the GFA which the EU are heavily involved in. It would be the end of the EU as a bloc.


  • #8284
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,129 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    If the vote fails tomorrow, I understand that an extension would only be granted for something useful. I can't think of a better word, but I am sure you understand.

    Kicking the can is not a reason for an extension is it?

    So I still wonder. And EU27 will have to approve an extension also, as I understand it anyway.


  • #8285
    bilston
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,014 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    Je_suis_Jean wrote: »
    Hi

    HTF did JRM subject his ERG group to the will of the DUP? Does he miss being dominated in Eton or what?

    The DUP are the ERG's useful idiots. They aren't subject to their will at all.


  • #8286
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    Enzokk wrote: »
    So basically if the UK feels that during the negotiations there is no way out they can just walk away.

    Not quite, it would require that the UK is able to prove that there is no posibility of there being an agreement being reached and that the process has broken down. According to the declaration, the UK have their right to unilaterally walk away from the backstop, unless the EU says they are happy to keep working on an agreement.

    The UK has essentially declared, and this will form a legally binding part of the treaty, that for as long as the EU is willing to talk about a future relatioship, the UK the be bound by the backstop.

    We wanted the backstop to be applicable "unless and untill" a suitable replacement is found. If ratified the treaty will provide that the backstop will apply for as long as the EU remains engaged in talks with the UK to find a suitable replacement for the backstop. That is as good as "unless and untill" for me.


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  • #8287
    bilston
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,014 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    Tory Brexiteer Mike Penning has said he will support the govt now.

    1 down, 115 to go...


  • #8288
    diggerdigger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 129 ✭✭diggerdigger


    What is this talk of the text of a UK unilateral statement? Appeasement of DUP - they don't seem to know about it. We gave support early doors.


  • #8289
    54and56
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,863 ✭✭✭54and56


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    I must admit that I am surprised that the EU has stuck with Ireland and the backstop right throughout this process without any major compromises. It's a big coup for the Irish Government in my view.

    Which is exactly why Leo et al should keep absolutely sthumm (spelling?) about this three card shuffle. Don't gloat, don't protest, just say the backstop remains the backstop and the EU U27 are united.


  • #8290
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,567 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    I think this sums it up.


  • #8291
    54and56
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,863 ✭✭✭54and56


    bilston wrote: »
    The DUP are the ERG's useful idiots. They aren't subject to their will at all.

    On Newsnight JRM said his position on the "improved deal" would be guided by Nigel Dodds!!


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  • #8292
    Ben D Bus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,177 ✭✭✭Ben D Bus


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »
    If the vote fails tomorrow, I understand that an extension would only be granted for something useful. I can't think of a better word, but I am sure you understand.

    Kicking the can is not a reason for an extension is it?

    So I still wonder. And EU27 will have to approve an extension also, as I understand it anyway.

    As a continuing act of good will I'm sure they'll be given a couple of extra weeks to get their house in order (of sorts). The EU 27 will be able to benefit from same.


  • #8293
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,129 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Time for the leaba. Thank you all for your insights and knowledge.

    We are living through history, if that's any consolation.


  • #8294
    Hurrache
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,385 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Je_suis_Jean wrote: »
    On Newsnight JRM said his position on the "improved deal" would be guided by Nigel Dodds!!

    The DUP may take the ladder down though. The recent polls in the north and input from businesses up there have landed punches on them and this could well be their out.

    JRM is gutless using the DUP.


  • #8295
    Jimjay
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 800 ✭✭✭Jimjay


    Junker said “no 3rd chance. Its this deal or no brexit”. That says to me they will allow an extension so a second ref can be run. If the deal is rejected and a no deal is rejected the only option is to cancel brexit.


  • #8296
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,966 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    This thread has been hectic. Did May actually achieve anything? The British media is awash with reports of "legally binding changes".

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #8297
    Dub.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 341 ✭✭Dub.


    Je_suis_Jean wrote: »
    On Newsnight JRM said his position on the "improved deal" would be guided by Nigel Dodds!!

    Useful for him to blame ERG capitulation on the DUP.


  • #8298
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,681 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    This thread has been hectic. Did May actually achieve anything? The British media is awash with reports of "legally binding changes".

    May is claiming that she has but she hasn't really achieved anything other than some 'assurances'.


  • #8299
    Fann Linn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,067 ✭✭✭Fann Linn


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    This thread has been hectic. Did May actually achieve anything? The British media is awash with reports of "legally binding changes".

    Her 'changes' are getting torn apart on the Sky News Press review as we speak.


  • #8300
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    This thread has been hectic. Did May actually achieve anything? The British media is awash with reports of "legally binding changes".

    Not really but it might be enough to give the DUP and ERG an honourable discharge. It's not legally binding but it sounds legally binding. Cox's opinion tomorrow will be pivotal.


  • #8301
    Headshot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 55,746 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    There's no point to the extension as this stage as its best deal UK can get now. The EU 27 should not extend it for a measily 2 weeks or so. If UK parliament aren't going to green light the deal now they won't do it in 2 weeks.

    Personally I'd give the UK the only option of 2 year extension. It will give businesses some kind of assurances and EU states more time to prepare for no brexit


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  • #8302
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Headshot wrote: »
    There's no point to the extension as this stage as its best deal UK can get now. The EU 27 should not extend it for a measily 2 weeks or so. If UK parliament aren't going to green light the deal now they won't do it in 2 weeks.

    Personally I'd give the UK the only option of 2 year extension. It will give businesses some kind of assurances and EU states more time to prepare for no brexit

    Dunno if parliament will swallow that though.


  • #8303
    SimonTemplar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,815 ✭✭✭SimonTemplar


    If the deal fails tomorrow, I can't see how May can possibility continue to be PM.


  • #8304
    Jimjay
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 800 ✭✭✭Jimjay


    Headshot wrote: »
    There's no point to the extension as this stage as its best deal UK can get now. The EU 27 should not extend it for a measily 2 weeks or so. If UK parliament aren't going to green light the deal now they won't do it in 2 weeks.

    Personally I'd give the UK the only option of 2 year extension. It will give businesses some kind of assurances and EU states more time to prepare for no brexit

    Of course they will extend it. If this deal is not passed and then no deal is ruled out then the only option is to cancel brexit or run a second referendum. Junker said its this deal or no brexit


  • #8305
    rizzodun
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,598 ✭✭✭rizzodun


    Sky News going full on Fox News with the two eejits on Press Preview.


  • #8306
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,730 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Not really but it might be enough to give the DUP and ERG an honourable discharge. It's not legally binding but it sounds legally binding. Cox's opinion tomorrow will be pivotal.

    As lady on SKY said, Cox has pinned his reputation on getting a time limit. Wouldn't be too hopeful on him being positive.


  • #8307
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    rizzodun wrote: »
    Sky News going full on Fox News with the two eejits on Press Preview.

    Stig Abell is a very intelligent man.


  • #8308
    diggerdigger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 129 ✭✭diggerdigger


    Hurrache wrote: »
    JRM is gutless using the DUP.

    Whatever about the DUP and JRM, they are pure victims of circumstances.

    I blame the makers of spitting image. A whole generation in the UK grew up watching caricature politicians on TV, and now subconsciously a whole country thinks they have to vote for the grinning idiot/buffoon/ gammon/Tim Nice but dim.


  • #8309
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    As lady on SKY said, Cox has pinned his reputation on getting a time limit. Wouldn't be too hopeful on him being positive.

    Exactly. As was said in the HoC, he'll be marking his own homework tomorrow.


  • #8310
    Hurrache
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,385 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    The British media is awash with reports of "legally binding changes".

    That's her achievement I think. I caught a bit of Clare Byrne and a leaver said he was happy to see these changes.


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  • #8311
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,327 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Headshot wrote: »
    There's no point to the extension as this stage as its best deal UK can get now. The EU 27 should not extend it for a measily 2 weeks or so. If UK parliament aren't going to green light the deal now they won't do it in 2 weeks.

    Personally I'd give the UK the only option of 2 year extension. It will give businesses some kind of assurances and EU states more time to prepare for no brexit




    Why give them any extension now? This deal or else cancel Brexit or exit with no deal. Choice between the 3 and that shouldn't change regardless of how long they have to think about it. Time for them to make up their minds and $$$$ or get off the pot


This discussion has been closed.
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