Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas · 03-03-2019 03:44PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A bizarre outburst by a noted British journalist - imagine if an Irish writer had posted similar?

http://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1101576590457270273

In fairness to him, he starts to backtrack later in the thread when he realises he overstepped the mark.

Professor Moriarty · 03-03-2019 03:48PM

Strazdas wrote: »

In fairness to him, he starts to backtrack later in the thread when he realises he overstepped the mark.

He did, but his mea culpa didn't stop him being hammered further on again.

Enzokk · 03-03-2019 03:48PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/taoiseach-tells-ministers-brexit-deadline-to-be-extended-until-june-37872552.html

Interesting if true but of course it's the indo so pinch of salt. However I'm likely consider it true as the British don't have enough time left now to get there house in order. I'm assuming May gets her deal passed then an extension till June being the order of events?

I think it is obvious to most people that the UK would have to extend article 50 to get all legislation passed. This was true when she delayed the vote in December. The only person who has lied all this time was May, stating she would leave the EU on March 29th come what may.

Her game plan will work I suppose. She will have delayed MPs into backing it as the no-deal option is so crazy not even the crazies will vote for it. Some great leadership from May there. She will do anything to get her deal/way and it really is pathetic, but if she manages to pass a deal that lost the vote by more than 200 just a few months ago, what does that say about those that suddenly support it?

I found these two links on the rise of UKIP. I predict we will see the Tories lurch to the right due to this, this will probably mean a breakup of the party just as Labour will splinter and the moderates will leave due to Corbyn.

How Ukip normalised far-right politics – video explainer

Revealed: Ukip membership surge shifts party to far right

It would take a really principled and strong leader in the Conservatives not to move even further to the right and I see no-one on the horizon to do this. JRM will not be leader as he prefers to be in the background. Johnson will say and do what he wants to be PM and he is already there in terms of hos views of white supremacy so he will not fight it. Javid is out to prove how tough he is on his own people in his current role so he will not stand up to it. What a farce.

RobbingBandit · 03-03-2019 03:50PM

Apologies if been asked, has anything been mentioned about the free travel cross border directive yet can't find anything online about if it stays on place or not?

road_high · 03-03-2019 03:52PM

The chilling prospect of dreadful US food imports via the border would have me wanting a hard border, especially their “meat”. Awful standards of welfare, production and food safety.

prawnsambo · 03-03-2019 03:57PM

RobbingBandit wrote: »

Apologies if been asked, has anything been mentioned about the free travel cross border directive yet can't find anything online about if it stays on place or not?

Are you confusing the CTA with a proposed EU/UK short term treaty?

reslfj · 03-03-2019 04:53PM

20silkcut wrote: »

....
But then they have a lot to lose in a hard brexit. Many of them own big country estates with thousands of acres of land attracting big EU subsidies.

Until the House of Lords Act 1999 was passed, all peers of the United Kingdom were automatically members of the House of Lords. However, from that date, most of the hereditary peers ceased to be members as part of Parliamentary reform /wikipedia

There are now only 92 hereditary peers with a seat in the HoL .

The large majority of peers in the HoL is appointed by the Queen as "life peers" and most will not "own big country estates with thousands of acres of land".

IMHO and looking at HoL reports and open hearings, the HoL have shown great ability to look at facts about Brexit.

Lars

Impetus · 03-03-2019 04:54PM

Brexit - based on fairytales of the future rhapsodies of “independence”

From the Financial Times Weekend

‘But Britain is about to find out the hard way that neither of these prudential assumptions are what, in the end, moves history. If they were, Brexit, the economic case for which was always based on fairytales of the future, would never have taken off as a serious cause. History is moved instead by stories of identity, sovereignty and self-respect, and the very rhapsodies of “independence” that sustain the Brexit crusade harden into the rock of resistance on the other side of the Irish Sea’…..

The full article can be googled using keywords = When Britain chose Europe
Alternatively use your paywall subscription or subscribe.

prawnsambo · 03-03-2019 05:08PM

reslfj wrote: »

There are now only 92 hereditary peers with a seat in the HoL .

The large majority of peers in the HoL is appointed by the Queen as "life peers" and most will not "own big country estates with thousands of acres of land".

IMHO and looking at HoL reports and open hearings, the HoL have shown great ability to look at facts about Brexit.

Lars

Interestingly, the deputy chief whip; Patrick Stopford (one of the 92), is the Earl of Courtown. Yep, that Courtown in Wexford.

briany · 03-03-2019 05:08PM

20silkcut wrote: »

I honestly think it’s because the real reason a lot of people voted brexit was because their country has become unrecognizable with foreigners.

What will these Brexiteers do, then, if and when Brexit happens but foreigners remain?

And let's be honest, here, it's not a French doctor or an Italian chef that such Brexiteers have a problem with. It's a specific type of foreigner - dark skinned, typically Muslim, doesn't integrate, poses a security risk. This is the principal type of foreigner that Brexiteers voting on the point of immigration had in their heads. When UKIP put up their infamous 'Breaking Point' poster, it wasn't fair-haired Swedes featured in that massive snaking caravan.

But here's the problem - a lot of who Brexiteers cite as foreigners are British citizens born and raised in the UK, with their antecedents coming from Commonwealth countries. The 7/7 bombers consisted of 3 British-born men and one Jamaican. We're talking second or third generation in a lot of cases, here. If Brexiteers think the UK has become overrun with foreigners, they're in for a bit of a shock when leaving the EU does little to fix that.

Professor Moriarty · 03-03-2019 05:11PM

briany wrote: »

What will these Brexiteers do, then, if and when Brexit happens but foreigners remain?

And let's be honest, here, it's not a French doctor or an Italian chef that such Brexiteers have a problem with. It's a specific type of foreigner - dark skinned, typically Muslim, doesn't integrate, poses a security risk. This is the principal type of foreigner that Brexiteers voting on the point of immigration had in their heads. When UKIP put up their infamous 'Breaking Point' poster, it wasn't fair-haired Swedes featured in that massive snaking caravan.

But here's the problem - a lot of who Brexiteers cite as foreigners are British citizens born and raised in the UK. The 7/7 bombers consisted of 3 British-born men and one Jamaican. We're talking second or third generation in a lot of cases, here, from Commonwealth countries. If Brexiteers think the UK has become overrun with foreigners, they're in for a bit of a shock when leaving the EU does little to fix that.

Since the referendum in 2016, immigration from countries outside the EU has risen sharply while immigration from EU countries has sharply dropped.

Thargor · 03-03-2019 05:12PM

Well thats that cleared up anyway:

https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1102147077679783936

RobMc59 · 03-03-2019 05:33PM

road_high wrote: »

The chilling prospect of dreadful US food imports via the border would have me wanting a hard border, especially their “meat”. Awful standards of welfare, production and food safety.

Some of their other methods are dodgy as well,a few years back i worked at a North Wales chemical company-one of the products was methyl iodide-a nasty carcinogenic which also attacks the nervous system.The US was using it as a pesticide in land used for growing strawberries!

Capt'n Midnight · 03-03-2019 05:46PM

ERG / DUP will support May subject to three impossible tests. So no change at all really.

The Sunday Times reported that a group including former Brexit minister Dominic Raab and Nigel Dodds, the deputy leader of the Northern Irish party which props up May’s minority government, had drawn up the tests by which they would assess any changes.

“The mechanism has got to be legally binding, so effectively treaty-level change,” one of the group, Conservative lawmaker Michael Tomlinson, said in an interview with the newspaper.

“The second part is the language. It can’t be a reinterpretation of the withdrawal agreement or a re-emphasis; it’s got to be really clear language as to where we are going ...

The third requirement is a clear exit route.”

Treaty-level change ? - There's only 26 days on the clock, and this would have to get past 27 countries that have issues with fishing, Gibraltar, tax havens or just general axes to grind.

Language - nice one. Goalposts that can be moved. Look at maritime contracts. Archaic words precisely because their meanings have survived hundred of years of court cases.

Clear Exit Route - technically there already is one. Break the deal face the wheel. UK leaves the deal and instantly becomes a third country and losing all WA rights.

woohoo!!! · 03-03-2019 06:17PM

So tedious having to watch them go round and round in circles with next to no self awareness.

fly_agaric · 03-03-2019 07:15PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

That was a case of food fraud. You can get horsemeat in your burger if it says so on the label. Horsemeat is freely sold in the EU particularly in France and eastern Europe, but it is a cheaper meat. Selling it as beef is fraud.

The horse meat scandal was quite a bit more serious than that implies because tracability of the meat sources was being completely lost with that kind of fraud going on. Where was the horse meat (or other meats being swapped in for beef to save cost) coming from and going to etc?
To be honest I thought there weren't enough heads set rolling/businesses shut down after it.

All that said EU generally seems to be well ahead of the US in this area and a post Brexit trade deal with them involving agriculture and food can only lead to reduced standards in the UK.

At the moment UK govt. say that this would not be on the table at all https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47418505, but would expect there are strong elements in the Conservative party that would be very focussed on all the juicy treats they might get off grateful US big business if they smooth the way for a comprehensive US/UK trade agreeement. You can always hoodwink enough of the voters in a democracy anyway (get them to swallow the chlorinated chicken??); going on the last few years it gets easier to do that all the time thanks to the internet!

briany · 03-03-2019 07:20PM

woohoo!!! wrote: »

So tedious having to watch them go round and round in circles with next to no self awareness.

Watching the two sides debate Brexit has been like watching one wall talking to another wall.

Seth Brundle · 03-03-2019 07:23PM

This looks like a handy Which Brexit ready reckoner...

https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1102269352819200000?s=19

Kermit.de.frog · 03-03-2019 09:57PM

UK govt has abandoned efforts to get a time limit or unilateral exit clause to the backstop according to the Telegraph.

EU has rejected both, UK accepts this.

Geoffrey Cox focused now on enhanced arbitration as solution.

DUP/ERG will be deeply unhappy.

Looks like the battle is won for IRE/EU on the backstop.

judeboy101 · 03-03-2019 10:04PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK govt has abandoned efforts to get a time limit or unilateral exit clause to the backstop according to the Telegraph.

EU has rejected both, UK accepts this.

Geoffrey Cox focused now on enhanced arbitration as solution.

DUP/ERG will be deeply unhappy.

Looks like the battle is won for IRE/EU on the backstop.

What the hell is enhanced arbitration??

Water John · 03-03-2019 10:05PM

DUP/ERG will 'reluctantly' accept Cox's assurance IWT. All those assured that the EU would blink are accepting now that isn't so.

Enhanced Arbitration is a little bit of Hocus Pocus so Cox can endorse it.

An Ciarraioch · 03-03-2019 10:14PM

judeboy101 wrote: »

What the hell is enhanced arbitration??

As in the old Lotto draws, presumably an independent observer of the backstop mechanism.

judeboy101 · 03-03-2019 10:19PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

As in the old Lotto draws, presumably an independent observer of the backstop mechanism.

I thought that was already part of the WA, a 3member panel of EU/UK/A-bother?

Kermit.de.frog · 03-03-2019 10:34PM

Tweet by Peter Foster, Telegraph reporter

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1102335909679255552

03-03-2019 10:35PM

Thargor wrote: »

Well thats that cleared up anyway:

https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1102147077679783936

The bit when he's speaking with the NFU quote behind him in the shot is pure Comical Ali stuff.

lawred2 · 03-03-2019 11:10PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK govt has abandoned efforts to get a time limit or unilateral exit clause to the backstop according to the Telegraph.

EU has rejected both, UK accepts this.

Geoffrey Cox focused now on enhanced arbitration as solution.

DUP/ERG will be deeply unhappy.

Looks like the battle is won for IRE/EU on the backstop.

There was no battle. This was the position agreed by HMG with the EU.

Well there was a battle I suppose but it existed in the delusions of Brexiteers.

Enzokk · 03-03-2019 11:23PM

So we have no changes to the backstop or even a time limit. We have no movement from the EU, as they have said from the beginning and May has not even tried to either negotiate something new or even engage with Labour on what they would find acceptable.

Her deal is still the deal on offer and it is the same deal that lost by 200 votes 2 months ago and it is that deal they will vote for again. If nothing changes in the next 12 days or so, how can Labour support a deal they have rejected already? How can the ERG support the deal when they were so vehemently opposed to it?

I could see one way Labour could support it, if she attaches either another referendum on it passing or a general election, but there really is nothing to make anybody change their mind from the previous vote. It takes some balls from the PM to flirt with no-deal to get her deal through. Let's hope for all our sake it doesn't backfire like it did on her predecessor.

Junkyard Tom · 04-03-2019 12:44AM

So far from Britain 'reclaiming its sovereignty' from the EU the Backstop demonstrates that it has been eroded while, conversely, Ireland's has been enhanced.

Frank Bullitt · 04-03-2019 12:56AM

The spin from some brexiteers about how chlorinated chicken isn't that bad etc is a serious sight. I don't know how they dont fall off their chair from the spinning that they do.

woohoo!!! · 04-03-2019 06:41AM

The DUP/ERG are quite happy considering they want no deal. Their utterly ridiculous 3 tests attest to this. The sooner these hard liners are side lined, the better. Far too much time and attention has been wasted on these extremists. The EU were never interested in entertaining them.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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