Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Folkstonian wrote: »

Like I said, classy.

What has your perception of classy to do with anything? I couldn’t give a flying ****e if you think a few hometruths are classy or not! If you want to live in an echo chamber go back to reading the Daily Mail. I’ve absolutely no time for brexit voting UK migrants that think they can retain all their EU privileges. Not how the world works loves and time you lot realized it. Not long to go now in any case.

I absolutely want no A50 extension, I want the UK gone, erased from the European Union. We can all hopefully be grown ups and still trade with eachother which I think is what everyone wants like in an amicable divorce. It’s obvious the political union doesn’t work for the UK and is like a deadweight on the rest of the EU so it’s best for everyone.

Folkstonian wrote: »

Interesting description of a country that is a net contributor of €12bn to the EU budget, home to 3 million Europeans looking for employment, and a leading player in European defence and security.

If Britain is a ‘dead weight’ needing to be erased, what charming descriptions do you have for the other 27?

The net amount is a good deal less than that. Taking out farm subsidies and other direct payments drops that right down to about €5 billion.

Folkstonian wrote: »

You classy fella, you.

Btw - Brits are overwhelmingly a net contributor to the Spanish economy. Over 15m Brits a year holiday in Spain, pouring billions into the tourism sector.

Despite all the uncertainty surrounding what happens next month, the drop off in U.K. citizens booking summer holidays in Spain and elsewhere in the EU has been relatively small so far, but if the Spanish want to take an abrasive stance towards them, I’m sure there are other countries to travel and spend lots of money in

I'd be dubious as to whether an abrasive attitude to ex-pats would have much effect on the tourist numbers.
I doubt say the 18-35 booze holiday people will be put off going to Ibiza or the Canaries because of how health service conditions are changing for the 70+ 'blue tint brigade' in Torremolinos.

Richard Bruton has confirmed that in the event of a No Deal scenario, the Electricity market between the North and the South could be disrupted and the North may need to find alternative electricity supply

The single market rules for electricity may make it illegal for Ireland to sell electricity to the UK absent a legal arrangement to do so.

This had already been discussed as a possibility, but most people figured that the UK wouldn't let it to get this close to the line without making proper arrangements to keep the lights in the North

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/no-deal-brexit-could-impact-some-types-of-electricity-trading-bruton-1.3799686

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Toto Wolff, CEO of the Mercedes AMG Petronas Motorsport Formula One Team team has said how Brexit could cause the "mother of all messes" for Formula 1 and will have be a distinct disadvantage to all UK based F1 teams

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/19/motorsport/toto-wolff-mercedes-brexit-formula-one-spt-intl/index.html

In other sports related news, the Heineken Cup quarter finals are on the 30th and 31st of March

Will there be
Broadcast rights, work permits, flights, customs clearance for the travelling teams sports equipment etc etc...

There are a lot of southern hemisphere born players who have rights to work in the EU but will they have to apply for work permits to play in the UK post Brexit?

No way to partaking in the EU elections. They’d elect every disruptive fruit cake they could find. The Eu has had enough destabilizing UK influence, we certainly don’t need to add to it particularly as they’re leaving. Would be like leaving a job but still turning up each day to cause havoc.

road_high wrote: »

No way to partaking in the EU elections. They’d elect every disruptive fruit cake they could find. The Eu has had enough destabilizing UK influence, we certainly don’t need to add to it particularly as they’re leaving. Would be like leaving a job but still turning up each day to cause havoc.

However there is also the possibility of some sort of deal. Plus buy time to prepare in the event of no deal.

Bit cynical wrote: »

I have posted to the effect that this is unlikely. A50 only ends when no further extensions are available. She will keep her options open until that time.

Thanks, after I had posted I realised that surely this option had already been discussed. But it is a long thread just the same, sometimes difficult to keep up!

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

https://twitter.com/katyballs/status/1098004050484883456

I imagine this talk is just to try and keep those about to resign the whip placated for a few more days. Also as everyone knows, what Westminster thinks isnt in line with Brussels, most of the time.

As you say, if the EU are not prepared to agree to any more shenanigans on the backstop, what is the point? Unless UK is going to agree to a full non time limited backstop as originally agreed, before May reneged.

Bit cynical wrote: »

This is the main threat that Theresa May has against the hard Brexiteers: "agree to my deal or we extend article 50". As far as I'm aware she does not require any parliamentary approval to do this.

Ireland is probably in favour of an extension particularly if there is to be no deal as we are not yet prepared for that scenario.

The UK has a large body of legislation required to support Brexit. They aren't even close to completion. They cannot get it done in time. At all.

They will need an extension just to do their own administration.

But the extension requires the approval of all 27 other members. I am assuming that if the Commission is signalling the possibility, they are fairly sure this is possible.

But I suspect they are doing so in order to enable an orderly wind down which requires the UK to sort out the other ancillary legislation, not to give more time for brinkmanship. I just fear it will be used for brinkmanship. As the UK government has folded on the WA and is now looking for a codicil - which they will not get if they are looking to contradict the text of the agreement - I suspect a civil servant has got this message through to May whatever about the rest of her party.

My guess is an extension will only be requested if the WA is approved in a reasonably timely manner - this does not mean 27 March.

If it is not, the cliffhanger will possibly be between no deal and withdrawal of Article 50. This has been alluded to earlier with implied threats that if there was no deal approved by HoC, there might be no Brexit. The issue there is that withdrawal of Article 50 in bad faith or just to manipulate the HoC would not make many friends.

The other problem now is that a late reversal of Article 50 does not reverse things like Honda's decision, for example. The losses caused by a potential (even with deal) Brexit, directly or indirectly, are real losses, even if Brexit does not ultimately happen. The last two years have been toxic for business.

Socially, the country is very, very deeply divided. In a way, the country has been fighting a more or less bloodless civil war, and the entrenched views and disruption to personal relationships will probably take a generation to filter out, if not longer. It does not have a single political leader with the charisma to look at the actual problems for the population and both parties are driven by desired ideological processes, not be desired outcomes. Additionally, there is a very deep lack of willing on the Brexit supporting side to consider any give at all. They use the language of abuse: enemies of the state, traitors, and a heavy focus on reminding people they lost.

You don't build the phoenix of conciliation out of that and in particular as a good chunk of Brexit voters won't get what they want even if Brexit goes ahead it will be hard to even try.

The next 5 years will be interesting.