Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali · 19-02-2019 07:21PM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Liver, kidney, tongue and heart are not to be laughed at - excellent high protein, nutrient packed grub

A chacun son gout.

RobMc59 · 19-02-2019 07:22PM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Liver, kidney, tongue and heart are not to be laughed at - excellent high protein, nutrient packed grub

Steak and kidney pie with Guinness gravy!-bootiful!

Franz Von Peppercorn · 19-02-2019 07:27PM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Liver, kidney, tongue and heart are not to be laughed at - excellent high protein, nutrient packed grub

I agree. I like them myself and the comment was in part referring to the fact that the U.K. has had a long post war tradition, lost clearly on some, of using offal in recipies. Sadly dying out. Can’t remember the last time I saw kidney or liver for breakfast, or steak n kidney pie.

jm08 · 19-02-2019 07:43PM

kunst nugget wrote: »

And some British producers would pride themselves on the same thing while some Irish producers will just aim for the bare minimum. It's hardly a black and white thing when it comes to food production between the two islands.

Its not what is aimed for, its the checking that is done (and why we can't have an open border).

Take for example the horsemeat scandal - that was detected by Irish inspectors (and immediately reported) even though it was happening all over Europe. The UK has a problem because there is a shortage of vetinary inspectors. For example, one slaughterhouse in the UK was butchering injured horses that had to be put down along with animals reared for human consumption. This is a no-no under EU regs. (To do with animals for human consumption should not have been given any medicines/antibiotics for a 3 month period before slaughter).

For Forks Sake · 19-02-2019 07:46PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The NI unionist field becomes even more fragmented - admittedly, the likes of UKIP and TUV are marginal, at best, but now a party even further to the right has emerged:

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/scrap-all-uk-assemblies-says-new-unionist-party-1-8816844

That is the single worst CV I have ever set eyes on:

Mr Higginson has previously been a trade union representative, a member of the UDR and the NI regional organiser for Ukip.

Sam Russell · 19-02-2019 08:04PM

kunst nugget wrote: »

Not to be pedantic but we've had cases of BSE in this country and an outbreak of foot and mouth in 2001 so they did both occur here. We obviously were more stringent about how we dealt with these issues so had much more successful outcomes.

I did not say they did not occur in Ireland. I said they were not caused by Irish farm practices. It was feeding animal protein, namely scrapie infected sheep meat to cattle. Most infections occurred in the UK.

The method of containing animal infections is much better handled in Ireland than GB.

An Ciarraioch · 19-02-2019 08:14PM

Interesting:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1097924742995197953

Electoral Calculus gives hung parliament projection:

Con 317
Lab 208
SNP 50
Lib Dems 27
Ind Group 26
NI 18
Plaid Cymru 3
Green 1

Franz Von Peppercorn · 19-02-2019 08:21PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1097924742995197953

Electoral Calculus gives hung parliament projection:

Con 317
Lab 208
SNP 50
Lib Dems 27
Ind Group 26
NI 18
Plaid Cymru 3
Green 1

Is that your own electoral calculus. The problem with fptp is that you can’t have 10% of the vote equally across all constituencies. You need 30% + in 26 constituencies to get 26 seats.

The likely result for a new party on 10% of the vote is 0 seats.

Inquitus · 19-02-2019 08:26PM

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Is that your own electoral calculus. The problem with fptp is that you can’t have 10% of the vote equally across all constituencies. You need 30% + in 26 constituencies to get 26 seats.

The likely result for a new party on 10% of the vote is 0 seats.

Aye UKIP got 1 seat on 12.6% of the vote in 2015

Seth Brundle · 19-02-2019 08:27PM

Coincidentally while youse are all chatting about the what farmers produce, the NFU make it clear how worried they are for the future of farming...

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1097841785173393409?s=19

An Ciarraioch · 19-02-2019 08:29PM

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Is that your own electoral calculus. The problem with fptp is that you can’t have 10% of the vote equally across all constituencies. You need 30% + in 26 constituencies to get 26 seats.

The likely result for a new party on 10% of the vote is 0 seats.

It allows you to create a poll with a "Labour split" option:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?newlabcontrol=Y&CON=32&LAB=26&LIB=9&UKIP=6&Green=4&NewLAB=10&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=%28none%29&boundary=2017

Seth Brundle · 19-02-2019 08:33PM

...also on the agricultural theme, Reuters are claiming farmers who export produce may be, as of next week, subject to tarrifs...

British farmers and food producers must decide whether to proceed with shipments next week because exports could face tariffs if Britain leaves the European Union without a deal, a farming leader said on Tuesday.

Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29 but Minette Batters, president of the National Farmers Union (NFU), said decisions needed to be taken by farmers as soon as next week.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-farming-idUKKCN1Q81ZO

Apparently Michael Gove is also now confirming that agricultural exports to the EU may not even be possible...

A no-deal Brexit would seriously harm the UK’s farmers, Michael Gove has admitted.

The Environment Secretary told the National Farmer’s Union (NFU) conference that there was “no absolute guarantee” that British farmers could export any of their produce to the EU in a no-deal scenario, and would face punishing tariffs even if they could.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/brexit-michael-gove-admits-farmers-may-never-recover-from-no-deal-1-4875463

Folkstonian · 19-02-2019 08:41PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1097924742995197953

Electoral Calculus gives hung parliament projection:

Con 317
Lab 208
SNP 50
Lib Dems 27
Ind Group 26
NI 18
Plaid Cymru 3
Green 1

If that’s accurate, it’s a fascinating insight into how sick lots of voters are with ‘traditional’ politics at the moment

They don’t have a leader or a manifesto, we don’t know who leads them, or anything about what they stand for apart from remaining in Europe and stopping Corbyn becoming PM.

I wonder if they could become quite a serious force if they receive funding, organise themselves with a proper manifesto and leadership contest, and tempt other MPs to jump ship

prawnsambo · 19-02-2019 08:43PM

Adamcp898 wrote: »

There's then the obvious inverse of that which is firms that need access to the EU as well as London will now need to set up a presence in an EU country. The extent to which they do will vary however. As a previous poster pointed out, transferring of hundreds of millions in assets does not necessarily mean the jobs must also follow. The question has to be asked - does this new firm require thousands of highly skilled staff, either moved from the London office or duplicated, or will an IT team suffice to maintain the company's new interests there allowing the staff to remain, so to speak, in London?

Great post. Just on the bolded bit, I could be wrong, but is there not a requirement that people managing EU assets be resident in the EU?

Hurrache · 19-02-2019 08:45PM

Seems Malthouse is dead alright. Good, just because things were getting a bit boring.
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1097907303515344896?s=19

Franz Von Peppercorn · 19-02-2019 08:48PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

It allows you to create a poll with a "Labour split" option:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?newlabcontrol=Y&CON=32&LAB=26&LIB=9&UKIP=6&Green=4&NewLAB=10&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=%28none%29&boundary=2017

They admit problems with the model.

The model is based in each seat on a random simulation of Labour votes between the old and new parties, and it is not yet possible to give a definite seat-by-seat prediction or show changed seats.

Capt'n Midnight · 19-02-2019 08:52PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

...also on the agricultural theme, Reuters are claiming farmers who export produce may be, as of next week, subject to tarrifs...

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-farming-idUKKCN1Q81ZO

Apparently Michael Gove is also now confirming that agricultural exports to the EU may not even be possible...

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/brexit-michael-gove-admits-farmers-may-never-recover-from-no-deal-1-4875463

The UK knows what the Tariffs on food entering the EU are because they've been collecting them on third party imports too.

Clueless.

RobMc59 wrote: »

I imagine as with Irish producers,the British farmers will increase production as required-if Britain has to become more self sufficient it will,just as Ireland will as we are constantly being told on this forum.

LOL

Come B-Day the UK will be importing 90% of it's lettuce.
Double production and they'd still need to import 80%.

road_high wrote: »

Do you not think uk farmers are at full production?! Know thing or two about it and they are generally very intensive as it is- so which environmental rules are you going to jettison so they can up it beyond current thresholds?

Grove has promised that the UK would match the £3Bn farmers get from the EU , but mentioned "environmental" strings attached. I'm taking that as there's no £3Bn if they increase production. Because this is the guy who backstabbed Boris during the leadership contest and mouthed off about fishing while allowing the UK's 114th largest trading partner to walk all over them.

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, the Malthouse Compromise is dead:

Speaking about malt houses, the demand for UK barley from the rest of the EU has practically dried up due to the potential tariff of £90 a tonne once the quota shared between all third party countries has been used up.

Adamcp898 · 19-02-2019 09:04PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Great post. Just on the bolded bit, I could be wrong, but is there not a requirement that people managing EU assets be resident in the EU?

I'm not sure on the exact regulations surrounding it to be honest. I'd imagine there's no way to just list an empty office with a phone line as your EU division HQ but the levels to which it needs to be staffed I don't know. Or if you can get away with not moving all the vast numbers of analyst and support staff required and essentially just appoint figureheads who sign off on the work.

I know one of the things the City of London was worried about was the potential for other countries to "woo" institutions away from them with attractive packages and then, once established, they'd start to enforce stricter regulation on things such as the numbers of skilled personnel required to oversee assets thus pulling more jobs from London.

Capt'n Midnight · 19-02-2019 09:06PM

Joanna Better Hairpiece wrote: »

Worth noting that regarding the (Japanense) car plant closures (Nissan/Honda).

The Jap folks sent out a warning to the UK months ago, about it's handling of brexit,
but even more importantly, about it's clear ambitions to re-position as a tax haven on the global stage.

They're heading for 17% CT, maybe lower 15? by 2025, seems that's enough to worry a top3 global power on the other side of planet.

I wouldn't worry too much about Corporation Tax.

Lots of parts and patents and machinery and oversight need to make a car. Tax avoidance by transfer pricing would be a doddle.
Look at Amazon. They made a profit of $11.2bn. And the US government gave them a $129m tax rebate , and they nearly got another £3Bn in tax breaks in New York.

We can argue about whether Brexit and the EU-Japan deal meant that factory would close.

What is beyond arguing is that Brexit makes it extremely difficult to reverse that decision once made.

They used to make up 10% of UK car production. So a lot of suppliers will have to revise forecasts downwards. But unlike Brexit they known what's coming and when.

Patser · 19-02-2019 09:11PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1097924742995197953

Electoral Calculus gives hung parliament projection:

Con 317
Lab 208
SNP 50
Lib Dems 27
Ind Group 26
NI 18
Plaid Cymru 3
Green 1

Those figures don't yet include Farages new Brexit party, if it gets going properly.

So while the Independent Group steals Labour seats, Farages party could nick from the Tories, leading to a proper fracturing of UK politics and the rise of hung parliaments, coalitions with small groups (like DUP currently) holding huge powers. Something the UK is not really used to, and at a time when massive decisions will have to be made - regardless of Brexit outcome.

CelticRambler · 19-02-2019 09:12PM

Adamcp898 wrote: »

I know one of the things the City of London was worried about was the potential for other countries to "woo" institutions away from them with attractive packages and then, once established, they'd start to enforce stricter regulation on things such as the numbers of skilled personnel required to oversee assets thus pulling more jobs from London.

This is the point that was made in that Guardian article from a week ago or thereabouts, the one that said a no-deal Brexit would actually be very good for the EU in the long term - because Brussels can be just flexible enough with its mini-deals to pick all the cherries at the most convenient time. We're seeing this with the unilateral transitional arrangements that have already been announced.

road_high · 19-02-2019 09:16PM

Folkstonian wrote: »

High end Irish produce is no better than high end British produce. I’ve lived in both countries, bought from high end supermarkets and independent businesses in both. There’s no substantial difference.

Perhaps not but reputationally Ireland is in a different league. Which really matters when you’re selling infant formula to China or Japan.
Salmonella, BSE and foot and mouth are still synonymous with UK food production, we are very lucky we have a strong recognized brand very distinct from the Uk one

Kermit.de.frog · 19-02-2019 09:22PM

EU position hardening notably in last 48 hours.

German, french and spanish reps unequivocal today that there will be no unilateral exit or time limit to the backstop.

Hurrache · 19-02-2019 09:28PM

Yip
https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1097946483276636163?s=19

Water John · 19-02-2019 09:29PM

This from The Guardian;
With time running out, cabinet was also updated on the option of a no-deal Brexit if May cannot get her withdrawal agreement approved by parliament. One cabinet source said only Liz Truss, the secretary to the Treasury, spoke up emphatically in favour of keeping no deal as a negotiating option.

“I can’t understand how a No 2 at the Treasury could still countenance keeping that on the table,” the cabinet source said, but added that the general mood in the room had noticeably turned against no deal as a negotiating tactic.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/19/brexit-backstop-may-rules-out-malthouse-compromise

So hopefully the Cabinet are also quietly dropping the No Deal option.

fash · 19-02-2019 09:31PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Direct rule from Westminster.

How progressive.

The various sub regions should take back control - they hold all the cards and the UK needs them more than they need the UK. These are remoaner traitors to the regions (etc.) engagingin in project fear...

Folkstonian · 19-02-2019 09:33PM

fash wrote: »

The various sub regions should take back control - they hold all the cards and the UK needs them more than they need the UK. These are remoaner traitors to the regions (etc.) engagingin in project fear...

If there’s one thing that the U.K. doesn’t need more than it needs the U.K., its Northern Ireland

Capt'n Midnight · 19-02-2019 09:33PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Even the BBC can no longer deny Brexit is a negative

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47212992

This is what iirks be about BBC nowadays, the nanny tone in that sentence, it means everyone in UK is poorer (15% is not a little btw), just say it, grrrr

This analysis piece was commissioned by the BBC from experts working for an outside organisation.

Arrrrrhhhhhh !!!!!

Services account for about 40% of UK exports to the EU, which will mostly rely on the goodwill of the EU to continue.

Quoting this bit to show how low the BBC is sinking

Finally, one thing that often puzzles people is the fact that for decades we have bought more from other countries than they buy from us. How can that be?

The answer is that this trade deficit is matched by a surplus elsewhere.

Essentially foreigners are willing to lend us money - or buy our assets - because they believe the UK is a pretty safe, stable and open economy.

As a result, we are able to consume more than we produce.

In fact some have argued that we have been too attractive for foreign money - too stable, open and trustworthy. The result, they say, is that this foreign cash has pushed up the exchange rate, making UK businesses less competitive.

The bit in bold is an over simplification. I'm not an economist but it completely ignores that 80% of UK economy is services.

As for buying assets, I'm guessing that a lot of people with hard currency are waiting to see what happens before the upcoming asset grab.

The bit about businesses being less competitive is hogwash.
Sterling has fallen by 15% so UK exports are cheaper because they are literally being subsidised by a fall in wage packets. But exports haven't risen, even when measured in sterlings. Measure in Euros or Dollars and it's depressing.

gooch2k9 · 19-02-2019 09:34PM

Water John wrote: »

This from The Guardian;
With time running out, cabinet was also updated on the option of a no-deal Brexit if May cannot get her withdrawal agreement approved by parliament. One cabinet source said only Liz Truss, the secretary to the Treasury, spoke up emphatically in favour of keeping no deal as a negotiating option.

“I can’t understand how a No 2 at the Treasury could still countenance keeping that on the table,” the cabinet source said, but added that the general mood in the room had noticeably turned against no deal as a negotiating tactic.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/19/brexit-backstop-may-rules-out-malthouse-compromise

So hopefully the Cabinet are also quietly dropping the No Deal option.

Another interesting piece from the spokesperson in that article.

“We agreed to keep exploring the use of alternative arrangements – especially how they might be developed to ensure the absence of a hard border in Northern Ireland on a permanent footing, avoiding the need for the backstop to ever enter force.”

Brexiteers basically being called out to back up their claims on border solutions, and being given time to implement. It's been something sorely lacking in the discussion that nobody was concerned with coming up with a solution so the backstop wasn't needed. Only "No backstop!".

listermint · 19-02-2019 09:35PM

Folkstonian wrote: »

If that’s accurate, it’s a fascinating insight into how sick lots of voters are with ‘traditional’ politics at the moment

They don’t have a leader or a manifesto, we don’t know who leads them, or anything about what they stand for apart from remaining in Europe and stopping Corbyn becoming PM.

I wonder if they could become quite a serious force if they receive funding, organise themselves with a proper manifesto and leadership contest, and tempt other MPs to jump ship

I think their slogan was new politics tbf. Not down with corybn.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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