Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

Car99 wrote: »

And what was it at its best +?

+ 107 pts :mad:

203 bets
18 winners
-44pts

4.20 An Fraoch Mor 3pts e/w 8/1

onetwouniflu wrote: »

Info stuff? Bit of money already

must be, you can count on one hand the bets Jerry has had in Irish bumpers.

2.30 TAKINGRISKS 5pts win 10/3

Info stuff

Nicky says the horse is in very good form and expects a big run from him today.

Obviously the lads that have read the earlier threads will know he gets some word from Nicky's yard and as Dan said

its a guide to let readers know its info from the yard. Over the years he has got some nice ones from that yard

Mr Marker and streams of wiskey come to mind.

Anyway here is his first year on here 2013 to 2014

Bank +265.4pts
Starting bank 100pts
Profit +165.4pts

Started 9th December 2013
1/ 1.45 Vallani 8/1 2pts e/w 3rd
2/ 2.00 Monsieur Jamie 1pt e/w 8/1 unpl
3/ 7.50 Great Ability 12/1 2pts e/w unpl
4/ 2.00 Module 3/1 5pts unpl
5/ 3.15 mister dillion 2pts e/w 10/1 unpl
6/ 8.20 small john 2pts e/w 7/1 unpl
7/ 1.20 Riddleofthesands 4/1 2pts win unpl
8/ 3.35 Irish saint 2pts e/w 20/1 unpl
9/ 12.50 supreme carolina 1pt e/w 14/1 3rd
10/ 2.35 mountainous 1pt e/w 20/1 1st
11/ 3.30 vovalein 4pts win 7/2 2nd
12/ 1.55 aureate 9/1 2pts e/w unpl
13/ 9.15 sceilig 4pts win 2nd
14/ 1.35 Milan flyer. 2pts e/w 8/1 unpl
15/ 3.35 Saffran De Cotte 2pts e/w 14/1 unpl
16/ 3.45 Archie rice 2pts e/w 8/1 1st
17/ 2.40 Irish thistle 5pts win 7/4 1st
18/ 4.00 lady bridget 1pt e/w 12/1 unpl
19/ 4.10 Admiral Blake 2pts e/w 9/1 1st
20/ 7.25 Ice apple 1pt e/w 10/1 3rd
21/ 4.05 Keep kicking 2pts e/w 6/1 1st
22/ 2.25 Irish saint 2pts e/w 8/1 1st
23/ 3.45 True to form 1pt e/w 14/1 unpl
24/ 2.30 fair comment 1pt e/w 8/1 unpl
25/ 3.10 Midnight charmer 2pts win 5/2 1st
26/ 3.00 Bennelong 1pt e/w 7/1 unpl
27/ 4.10 captain scoopy 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
28/ 2.40 hunters lodge 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
29/ 3.15 noble deed 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
30/ 3.15 money spider 1pt e/w 33/1 unpl
31/ 8.15 New Rich 2pts e/w 8/1 1st
32/ 2.55 Mr Marker 1pt e/w 14/1 1st r4 10c
33/ 2.30 ghost train 1pt e/w 14/1 2nd
34/ 2.50 scruffy tramp 2pts win 4/1 unpl
35/ 3.05 xaarcetet 1pt e/w. 14/1 unpl
36/ 3.15 bygone sovereign 1pt e/w. 12/1 unpl
37/ 1.45. Shan valley 3pts win 5/1 2nd
38/ 3.55 Dundee 2pts e/w 9/1 unpl
39/ 2.20 Vallani 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl
40/ 6.50 Lisahane Bog 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl
41/ 3.00 Profile Star 5pts win 5/1 2nd
42/ 5.10 true to form. 2pts e/w 12/1 1st
43/ 5.15 mikemccaan 3pts win. 3/1 unpl
44/ 4.20 pass the hat 1pt e/w 14/1 1st
45/ 3.20 Jezski 2pts e/w 9/1 1st
46/ 5.15 Royal Vacation 1/2pt e/w 40/1 unpl
47/ 6.15 Arabian Heights 3pts win 7/2 1st
48/ 1.30 Double Ross 1pt e/w 14/1 3rd
49/ 2.05 Alaivan 2pts e/w. 14/1 unpl
50/ 3.15 Bob tucker 2pts e/w 10/1 unpl
51/ 3.45 Give me a break 1pt e/w 12/1 unpl
52/ 3.35 You Know Yourself 2pts e/w 9/1 unpl
53/ 5.00 Teide peak 3pts win 5/1 1st
54/ 4.05 Brocklebank 3pts win 4/1 2nd
55/ 3.10 Dundee 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd
56/ 1.30 Bright Applause 2pts win unpl
57/ 5.00 Brocklebank 2pts e/w 12/1 2nd
58/ 4.40 Chaval rouge 2pts e/w 25/1 unpl
59/ 4.00 hellbender 2pts e/w 15/2 unpl
60/ 5.00 Perfect passtime 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
61/ 3.20 Pierrer Bounty 2pt e/w 11/1 unpl
62/ 3.15 Jacks revenge 2pts e/w 16/1 unp
63/ 4.45 Monetary Fund 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl
64/ 5.25 Dr Finley 4pts win 3/1 9/2 s.p 1st
65/ 4.15 Kings grey 2pts e/w 20/1 unpl
66/ 5.15 spirit of shankley 2pts e/w 14/1 unpl
67/ 4.50 Pass the time. 2pts e/w. 16/1 unpl
68/ 4.15 One in a milan 1/2 point e/w 66/1 fell
69/ 4.15 Hawkes Point 1pt e/w 40/1 unpl
70/ 3.40 daring indian 2pts e/w 15/2 unpl
71/ 2.30 Oliver's mount 4 pts win. 5/1 1st
72/ 3.50 Godsmejudge 2pts e/w 16/1 2nd
73/ 4.00 Cape breton 2pts e/w 16/1 unpl
74/ 4.15 Zamra 2pts e/w 6/1 1st dh 13/2
75/ 4.40 barley mo 3pts win 5/1 unpl
76/ 4.25 Imperial leader 2pts e/w 14/1 unpl
77/ 1.45 icebuster 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
78/ 3.30 Communicator 2pts e/w 11/1 3rd
79/ 3.15 Haydock Streams of Whiskey 2pts 18/1 1st
80/ 3.30 Kempton Circumvent 1pt e/w 14/1 4th
81/ 5.00 Home Farm 2pt e/w 11/1 unpl
82/ 2.25 Indus Valley 2pts e/w 8/1 unpl
83/ 3.00 Bretherton 2pts e/w 10/1 2nd
84/ 3.25 Salutation 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl
85/ 2000 guineas bet N.R loss 4pts
86/ 3.05 kings chorister 2pts e/w 7/1 1st
87/ 3.50 Roalco De Farges 2pts e/w 11/1 unpl
88/ 5.20 new leaf 2pts e/w 12/1 unpl
89/ 5.45 Lutine charlie 2pts e/w 10/1 unpl
90/ 4.00 Angus Glens 3pts win 5/1 unpl
91/ 4.35 Lady Lunchalot 2pts e/w 8/1 unpl
92/ 5.20 copperwood 1pt e/w 16/1 unpl
93/ 6.40 somethingwonderful 1pt e/w 20/1 unpl
94/ 3.30 waseem faris 2pts e.w. 12/1 2nd
95/ 3.10 Hadaj 1pt e/w 20/1 five places 5th
96/ 3.50 Tapestery 3pts e/w 8/1 unpl
97/ 1.55 Hayek 2pts e/w 7/1 unpl
98/ 2.00 Little choosey 1pt e/w 20/1 unpl
99/ 2.45 Suegioo 2pts e/w 12/1 1st
100/ 5.00 Licence to till 2pts e/w 10/1 unpl
101/ 3.50 don't call me 1pt e/w 33/1 unpl

The Oaks Tapestery 2pts e/w 12/1 ????? Lost

205 bets
18 winners
-57pts


Sandown Saturday 15:35 888Sport Masters Handicap Chase

Classic ben 2pts e/w 33/1 5 places paddypower

realdanbreen wrote: »

You effing beauty Dl/Jerry, up ya boy ya got him @ 28-1 !

Glad for ya Dan.

Also great for. Jerry. He was very stubborn about calling it a day on here. So great for him.

mailburner wrote: »

mother of all comebacks there, well done Jerry and anyone who got on.

It's great to see and fair play for persevering when most would have given up.

Mb

To be fair to Jerry, it was him who insisted on me continuing to post the bets up here. I think someone posted that the thread had become a joke and there was no way Jerry was beating the book, these remarks pissed him off.

2,25. Flawless escape. 2pts e/w. 10/1

4.10. Landofhopenglory 2pts e/w. 14/1

208 bets
19 winners
+13pts

Hi
The last few months were literally exhausting, trying to recoup some of the losses has somewhat taken over the project but I tried to stick to the tried and tested ways I have used since my very first posts on here, back in 2013.
I do wish to apologize to folks on here who followed the bets and lost heavily.
To some of the people who came on here and said "this thread is now a joke", you are entitled to your opinion.
You maybe missing the point why we/Del run the thread.

Not everyone has the time to visit sites and scroll through them for a few hours a day.
Also not everyone would subscribe to all these sites as monthly it costs a few quid.

I have always said from day 1, once I get my few quid on at the right price I don't care who gets/reads my views on the race.
If people say, "look I will follow this guy he has obviously viewed the race and has come to the conclusion this horse is good value at 16/1". That's great.
If on the other hand people say, "look at this clown spouting crap about how good he is and he has a dreadful 9% strike rate," That's fine.

However even with this lowly strike rate I am still slightly ahead.

For the people who just pop in and say, I don't follow the bets but look in now and again to see how you are doing.
Thanks very much.

To the very few who maybe lowered their stakes drastically just to stay in the game, I will say this.

When I give a bet, at least two hours study would have gone into that race.
I bet €100 per point and I use various people/ways of getting this on.
I have finished ahead five of the last six years I have punted.


Can the book be beaten was started to show punters slowly and systematically the book can be beaten.

Regarding reasoning for the selections I would prefer to keep what sites I use and how I come to the conclusions.

I THOUGHT this thread would be a distraction however Del said it would increase my awareness of losing, you may laugh your head off at this statement with the actual losses this thread has concurred this year.

I am still baffled and bewildered about this massive massive losing run however I will look at this after April when I finished this thread to see if I can see where I went wrong.

Hopefully I have a decent Cheltenham.

Cheers for all who looked in, even those of you who thought the thread was a joke.

Thanks
Jerry

Every now and again I like to give a write up on a selection so lads on here can see where I am coming from, there will no bets today or tomorrow so I thought I would have a look at the Grand National Haydock Trial on Saturday 16th February.


Haydock National Trial Saturday 16th February.

Ballydine 2pts e/w 14/1

I don't want to go back too far so I would like to use the PETER MARSH handicap run last month where BALLYDINE finished 3rd.
Three out BALLYDINE was cruising and looked the winner to me until he clouded the second last, he not surprisingly dropped back through the field. However the jockey gathered the horse together and ran on to grab a very close third, all this from the wrong side of the track.

The winner Wakanda was gining Ballydine 6LB. The winners record is 2/2 when finishing the course, he was pulled up on his only other race at Haydock. He was backed from 7/1 to 6/1

Comments: Tracked leaders, challenged after 3 out, ridden after next, led flat, kept on well final 110 yards op 7/1

The second Robinsfirth was backed from 10/1 into 7/1, here is what the trainer said before the race.

He’s been off since he won at Cheltenham last year, so he missed the second half of that season. He’s been back in training for a long time and been aiming at this for a while. He’s a very capable horse on his day. He’s a big horse so he’s entitled to improve a fraction but he’s ready and hopefully he should have a good chance.

Comments Mid-division, went left and bumped rival 5th, hit 10th, behind and pushed along after 5 out, ridden and headway 2 out, went 2nd and kept on towards far side rail flat, not reach winner op 9/1 tchd 10/1

I think Ballydine bumped into two decent stayers in this race, had he not clouted the second last he would have given these two stayers something to think about.
This trial is almost four furlongs further and this extra distance should suit.

On his hurdle form he ran in the three mile SEFTON HURDLE of a rating of 145, he did finish well beaten however he was only 6/1 and some really decent horses ran in the race,

Winner.....BALLYOPTIC
Second....BELLSHILL
Third......POTTERS LEGEND
Fourth....BALKO DES FLO
Fifth......YALA YAKI
Eighth.....ASMI DEBOIS finished nk 2nd to Classic Ben on Saturday

Here is what trainer Charlie Longsdon had to say in last years stable tour.

Last season saw Longsdon have to make do without several key players due to injury, one of which was promising hurdler Ballydine who will now have his attentions switched to fences where he is expected to flourish and make up for lost time.

Longsdon said: "Ballydine is back steady cantering away. He won't be seen out until the middle of November. He is a different horse to what he was two years ago. As long as we can keep him sound, it was almost a blessing that he missed last season.

"He was a weak, raw horse and is a much bigger horse. Johnny Burke has sat on him a fair few times at home and he really likes him. I'd say he will go novice chasing. He will start over two and a half miles and will step up to three."

If he runs on the day 14/1 looks big

209 bets
19 winners
+11pts

3.25 wimpole hall 3pts win 5/1

Wimpole halls last race was over 1m4f where to say Wimpole got a easy/tender ride is a huge understatement, this 1m 3f around Kempton will suit better, had his dosage (2.00) been lower I would have had the max 5pts win on it.

He is a six year old so not much improvement however he is coming down the ratings where as the 1st and 2nd fav at the moment are going up the ratings.

Villette has a dosage of 0.85 which I would normally be interested in however even being 3/6 at Kempton with two of the wins coming in Class 4, she is an obvious choice but I can't get away from WIMPOLE HALLS runs at Kempton.

Villettes class 4 win over today's distance had a time of 2m 20.96s when he carried 8st 11 pound, compare this to Wimpole Hall runs over the c&d

off a 4LB higher rating carrying 9-7 the race was run in 2.19.96s
also only two races back Wimpole ran a very decent 3rd over today's c&d, carrying 9-6 ran in a fairly fast time of 2.17.60s

His style of running means he will be produced at the end of the race and at the prices I am just siding with Wimpole.

I see Technological has just shortened quite a bit in the last 10 minutes however I couldn't have this one at last nights price of 7/2 now 5/2. He has a dosage of 1.40 and is 2/13 in all races. You can also add another three placed efforts to that tally.
However the three times he has ran on a right handed course which Kempton is, his form is

Last of 10
Last of five
Tenth of sixteen

so not for me at 5/2

210 bets
19 winners
+8pts

3.20. Whydah. 2pts. E/w. 18/1