Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

205 bets
18 winners
-57pts


Sandown Saturday 15:35 888Sport Masters Handicap Chase

Classic ben 2pts e/w 33/1 5 places paddypower

realdanbreen wrote: »

You effing beauty Dl/Jerry, up ya boy ya got him @ 28-1 !

Glad for ya Dan.

Also great for. Jerry. He was very stubborn about calling it a day on here. So great for him.

mailburner wrote: »

mother of all comebacks there, well done Jerry and anyone who got on.

It's great to see and fair play for persevering when most would have given up.

Mb

To be fair to Jerry, it was him who insisted on me continuing to post the bets up here. I think someone posted that the thread had become a joke and there was no way Jerry was beating the book, these remarks pissed him off.

2,25. Flawless escape. 2pts e/w. 10/1

4.10. Landofhopenglory 2pts e/w. 14/1

208 bets
19 winners
+13pts

Hi
The last few months were literally exhausting, trying to recoup some of the losses has somewhat taken over the project but I tried to stick to the tried and tested ways I have used since my very first posts on here, back in 2013.
I do wish to apologize to folks on here who followed the bets and lost heavily.
To some of the people who came on here and said "this thread is now a joke", you are entitled to your opinion.
You maybe missing the point why we/Del run the thread.

Not everyone has the time to visit sites and scroll through them for a few hours a day.
Also not everyone would subscribe to all these sites as monthly it costs a few quid.

I have always said from day 1, once I get my few quid on at the right price I don't care who gets/reads my views on the race.
If people say, "look I will follow this guy he has obviously viewed the race and has come to the conclusion this horse is good value at 16/1". That's great.
If on the other hand people say, "look at this clown spouting crap about how good he is and he has a dreadful 9% strike rate," That's fine.

However even with this lowly strike rate I am still slightly ahead.

For the people who just pop in and say, I don't follow the bets but look in now and again to see how you are doing.
Thanks very much.

To the very few who maybe lowered their stakes drastically just to stay in the game, I will say this.

When I give a bet, at least two hours study would have gone into that race.
I bet €100 per point and I use various people/ways of getting this on.
I have finished ahead five of the last six years I have punted.


Can the book be beaten was started to show punters slowly and systematically the book can be beaten.

Regarding reasoning for the selections I would prefer to keep what sites I use and how I come to the conclusions.

I THOUGHT this thread would be a distraction however Del said it would increase my awareness of losing, you may laugh your head off at this statement with the actual losses this thread has concurred this year.

I am still baffled and bewildered about this massive massive losing run however I will look at this after April when I finished this thread to see if I can see where I went wrong.

Hopefully I have a decent Cheltenham.

Cheers for all who looked in, even those of you who thought the thread was a joke.

Thanks
Jerry

Every now and again I like to give a write up on a selection so lads on here can see where I am coming from, there will no bets today or tomorrow so I thought I would have a look at the Grand National Haydock Trial on Saturday 16th February.


Haydock National Trial Saturday 16th February.

Ballydine 2pts e/w 14/1

I don't want to go back too far so I would like to use the PETER MARSH handicap run last month where BALLYDINE finished 3rd.
Three out BALLYDINE was cruising and looked the winner to me until he clouded the second last, he not surprisingly dropped back through the field. However the jockey gathered the horse together and ran on to grab a very close third, all this from the wrong side of the track.

The winner Wakanda was gining Ballydine 6LB. The winners record is 2/2 when finishing the course, he was pulled up on his only other race at Haydock. He was backed from 7/1 to 6/1

Comments: Tracked leaders, challenged after 3 out, ridden after next, led flat, kept on well final 110 yards op 7/1

The second Robinsfirth was backed from 10/1 into 7/1, here is what the trainer said before the race.

He’s been off since he won at Cheltenham last year, so he missed the second half of that season. He’s been back in training for a long time and been aiming at this for a while. He’s a very capable horse on his day. He’s a big horse so he’s entitled to improve a fraction but he’s ready and hopefully he should have a good chance.

Comments Mid-division, went left and bumped rival 5th, hit 10th, behind and pushed along after 5 out, ridden and headway 2 out, went 2nd and kept on towards far side rail flat, not reach winner op 9/1 tchd 10/1

I think Ballydine bumped into two decent stayers in this race, had he not clouted the second last he would have given these two stayers something to think about.
This trial is almost four furlongs further and this extra distance should suit.

On his hurdle form he ran in the three mile SEFTON HURDLE of a rating of 145, he did finish well beaten however he was only 6/1 and some really decent horses ran in the race,

Winner.....BALLYOPTIC
Second....BELLSHILL
Third......POTTERS LEGEND
Fourth....BALKO DES FLO
Fifth......YALA YAKI
Eighth.....ASMI DEBOIS finished nk 2nd to Classic Ben on Saturday

Here is what trainer Charlie Longsdon had to say in last years stable tour.

Last season saw Longsdon have to make do without several key players due to injury, one of which was promising hurdler Ballydine who will now have his attentions switched to fences where he is expected to flourish and make up for lost time.

Longsdon said: "Ballydine is back steady cantering away. He won't be seen out until the middle of November. He is a different horse to what he was two years ago. As long as we can keep him sound, it was almost a blessing that he missed last season.

"He was a weak, raw horse and is a much bigger horse. Johnny Burke has sat on him a fair few times at home and he really likes him. I'd say he will go novice chasing. He will start over two and a half miles and will step up to three."

If he runs on the day 14/1 looks big

209 bets
19 winners
+11pts

3.25 wimpole hall 3pts win 5/1

Wimpole halls last race was over 1m4f where to say Wimpole got a easy/tender ride is a huge understatement, this 1m 3f around Kempton will suit better, had his dosage (2.00) been lower I would have had the max 5pts win on it.

He is a six year old so not much improvement however he is coming down the ratings where as the 1st and 2nd fav at the moment are going up the ratings.

Villette has a dosage of 0.85 which I would normally be interested in however even being 3/6 at Kempton with two of the wins coming in Class 4, she is an obvious choice but I can't get away from WIMPOLE HALLS runs at Kempton.

Villettes class 4 win over today's distance had a time of 2m 20.96s when he carried 8st 11 pound, compare this to Wimpole Hall runs over the c&d

off a 4LB higher rating carrying 9-7 the race was run in 2.19.96s
also only two races back Wimpole ran a very decent 3rd over today's c&d, carrying 9-6 ran in a fairly fast time of 2.17.60s

His style of running means he will be produced at the end of the race and at the prices I am just siding with Wimpole.

I see Technological has just shortened quite a bit in the last 10 minutes however I couldn't have this one at last nights price of 7/2 now 5/2. He has a dosage of 1.40 and is 2/13 in all races. You can also add another three placed efforts to that tally.
However the three times he has ran on a right handed course which Kempton is, his form is

Last of 10
Last of five
Tenth of sixteen

so not for me at 5/2

210 bets
19 winners
+8pts

3.20. Whydah. 2pts. E/w. 18/1