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Child Item

Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

del roy

Hi guys

Just speaking to Del today and we got talking about how many on here follow. Del said, he didn't think there was more than 10 people now, what with the bad run I have just being going through. I would just like to let whoever is interested know that I will be sending an email to Del each night before 8.00pm and another before 11.15am the next morning.
I have given Del permission to post both emails on this thread.

Del has also said, one reason why people would not follow this thread is they do not envisage it being run (A) MUCH LONGER or (B) no reasoning for selections.

So to get us all on the one page (so to speak) I have decided to post the emails I send the english guys up here and secondly

I will give the selections to Del to post up here until 20th April 2019
That's one whole year so if you want to follow us for a fiver a point you are welcome.

The cynics among you, will be asking, whats behind all this,

Answer: nothing really just a bit of craic.

So let the fun or misery begin.

4.45 Baby ticker €40 e/w 22/1
Baby ticker's last race was over 18f at Haydock on heavy ground. She was pushed along early by her jockey in that race and I thought although the step up in distance is questionable, the slower pace they will go over the 3m may help her relax during the race.
If anyone can watch the Haydock race back on the internet, she was on the inside rail, glued to it really until the last two furlongs were the jockey pulled her out and she ran on well to finish 5th.

Regarding the trainer, in 2013/14 season his best ever he trained 8 winners from 60 runners with a £1 stake returning £22.25.
This season he is 8 winners from 43 runners with a £1 stake returning a nice £36.50 profit.
So we can take two things from the above info

1. the trainer has found a way he did not know before of getting his horses fitter at home
2. he has also found away of getting winners at big prices, ie hiding the horses ability from handicapper and bookmaker.

Therefore he is just the trainer we are looking for.
(regardless of what happens Baby ticker today as there will be other big priced winners from this yard now they know what they are doing is improving the horses chances of winning.

Hope if you join in, you enjoy yourself.

Jerry.

BTW, I am not a professional so FEEL FREE to point out any flaws you see in my selections however there is a condition

It must be before the race. No AFTER TIMING.

143 bets
19 winners

-€435

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del roy

102 bets
return from 31 bets

del roy

205 bets
18 winners
-57pts

Sandown Saturday 15:35 888Sport Masters Handicap Chase

Classic ben 2pts e/w 33/1 5 places paddypower

realdanbreen

You effing beauty Dl/Jerry, up ya boy ya got him @ 28-1 !

realdanbreen

You effing beauty Dl/Jerry, up ya boy ya got him @ 28-1 !

del roy

del roy wrote: »

205 bets
18 winners
-57pts

Sandown Saturday 15:35 888Sport Masters Handicap Chase

Classic ben 2pts e/w 33/1 5 places paddypower

1st. 6/1

del roy

realdanbreen wrote: »

You effing beauty Dl/Jerry, up ya boy ya got him @ 28-1 !

Glad for ya Dan.

Also great for. Jerry. He was very stubborn about calling it a day on here. So great for him.

Collie D

Well done. Back in the black

sydthebeat

Ya fcuking beauty!!!!

14/1 when I got on...

paddy no 11

Brilliant

clfy39tzve8njq

Great stuff

del roy

206 bets
19 winners
+21pts

That’s some turn around Jerry. What an early price 33/1.

Harry Palmr

When he landed a couple the other day I said to myself, ah I've already missed the boat. I bet I have now

mailburner

mother of all comebacks there, well done Jerry and anyone who got on.

It's great to see and fair play for persevering when most would have given up.

del roy

mailburner wrote: »

mother of all comebacks there, well done Jerry and anyone who got on.

It's great to see and fair play for persevering when most would have given up.

Mb

To be fair to Jerry, it was him who insisted on me continuing to post the bets up here. I think someone posted that the thread had become a joke and there was no way Jerry was beating the book, these remarks pissed him off.

longshotvalue

del roy wrote: »

206 bets
19 winners
+21pts

That’s some turn around Jerry. What an early price 33/1.

Delighted for him . In fairness it just needs time . Well done .

del roy

2,25. Flawless escape. 2pts e/w. 10/1

4.10. Landofhopenglory 2pts e/w. 14/1

sdoc13

del roy wrote:

2,25. Flawless escape. 2pts e/w. 10/1

del roy wrote:

4.10. Landofhopenglory 2pts e/w. 14/1

The only 2 I fancy tomorrow. Hope his luck holds.

bookman2

great winner yesterday.

absolutely superb.

Timberrrrrrrr

Flawless escape is NR

sydthebeat

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Flawless escape is NR

Thanks....Porting bet over to agustagold in the 12:40

del roy

[QUOTE=del roy;109316695]2,25. Flawless escape. 2pts e/w. 10/1. Non runner

4.10. Landofhopenglory 2pts e/w. 14/1[/QUOTE]

2.25. The gate checker 2pts e/w. 14/1

hawaii501

del roy wrote: »

[QUOTE=del roy;109316695]2,25. Flawless escape. 2pts e/w. 10/1. Non runner

4.10. Landofhopenglory 2pts e/w. 14/1

2.25. The gate checker 2pts e/w. 14/1[/quote]

Just to let you know Del the Gatechecker is 22s with 5 places on PP

del roy

hawaii501 wrote: »

2.25. The gate checker 2pts e/w. 14/1

Just to let you know Del the Gatechecker is 22s with 5 places on PP[/QUOTE]

Sorry lads, just rang Jerry he is at Leopardstown, gatechecker price should read 18/1,

del roy

208 bets
19 winners
+13pts

Hi
The last few months were literally exhausting, trying to recoup some of the losses has somewhat taken over the project but I tried to stick to the tried and tested ways I have used since my very first posts on here, back in 2013.
I do wish to apologize to folks on here who followed the bets and lost heavily.
To some of the people who came on here and said "this thread is now a joke", you are entitled to your opinion.
You maybe missing the point why we/Del run the thread.

Not everyone has the time to visit sites and scroll through them for a few hours a day.
Also not everyone would subscribe to all these sites as monthly it costs a few quid.

I have always said from day 1, once I get my few quid on at the right price I don't care who gets/reads my views on the race.
If people say, "look I will follow this guy he has obviously viewed the race and has come to the conclusion this horse is good value at 16/1". That's great.
If on the other hand people say, "look at this clown spouting crap about how good he is and he has a dreadful 9% strike rate," That's fine.

However even with this lowly strike rate I am still slightly ahead.

For the people who just pop in and say, I don't follow the bets but look in now and again to see how you are doing.
Thanks very much.

To the very few who maybe lowered their stakes drastically just to stay in the game, I will say this.

When I give a bet, at least two hours study would have gone into that race.
I bet €100 per point and I use various people/ways of getting this on.
I have finished ahead five of the last six years I have punted.

Can the book be beaten was started to show punters slowly and systematically the book can be beaten.

Regarding reasoning for the selections I would prefer to keep what sites I use and how I come to the conclusions.

I THOUGHT this thread would be a distraction however Del said it would increase my awareness of losing, you may laugh your head off at this statement with the actual losses this thread has concurred this year.

I am still baffled and bewildered about this massive massive losing run however I will look at this after April when I finished this thread to see if I can see where I went wrong.

Hopefully I have a decent Cheltenham.

Cheers for all who looked in, even those of you who thought the thread was a joke.

Thanks
Jerry

ballyargus

Good man Jerry. You never buckled. Kudos for that. I've enjoyed the thread throughout and will continue to follow.

del roy

Every now and again I like to give a write up on a selection so lads on here can see where I am coming from, there will no bets today or tomorrow so I thought I would have a look at the Grand National Haydock Trial on Saturday 16th February.

Haydock National Trial Saturday 16th February.

Ballydine 2pts e/w 14/1

I don't want to go back too far so I would like to use the PETER MARSH handicap run last month where BALLYDINE finished 3rd.
Three out BALLYDINE was cruising and looked the winner to me until he clouded the second last, he not surprisingly dropped back through the field. However the jockey gathered the horse together and ran on to grab a very close third, all this from the wrong side of the track.

The winner Wakanda was gining Ballydine 6LB. The winners record is 2/2 when finishing the course, he was pulled up on his only other race at Haydock. He was backed from 7/1 to 6/1

Comments: Tracked leaders, challenged after 3 out, ridden after next, led flat, kept on well final 110 yards op 7/1

The second Robinsfirth was backed from 10/1 into 7/1, here is what the trainer said before the race.

He’s been off since he won at Cheltenham last year, so he missed the second half of that season. He’s been back in training for a long time and been aiming at this for a while. He’s a very capable horse on his day. He’s a big horse so he’s entitled to improve a fraction but he’s ready and hopefully he should have a good chance.

Comments Mid-division, went left and bumped rival 5th, hit 10th, behind and pushed along after 5 out, ridden and headway 2 out, went 2nd and kept on towards far side rail flat, not reach winner op 9/1 tchd 10/1

I think Ballydine bumped into two decent stayers in this race, had he not clouted the second last he would have given these two stayers something to think about.
This trial is almost four furlongs further and this extra distance should suit.

On his hurdle form he ran in the three mile SEFTON HURDLE of a rating of 145, he did finish well beaten however he was only 6/1 and some really decent horses ran in the race,

Winner.....BALLYOPTIC
Second....BELLSHILL
Third......POTTERS LEGEND
Fourth....BALKO DES FLO
Fifth......YALA YAKI
Eighth.....ASMI DEBOIS finished nk 2nd to Classic Ben on Saturday

Here is what trainer Charlie Longsdon had to say in last years stable tour.

Last season saw Longsdon have to make do without several key players due to injury, one of which was promising hurdler Ballydine who will now have his attentions switched to fences where he is expected to flourish and make up for lost time.

Longsdon said: "Ballydine is back steady cantering away. He won't be seen out until the middle of November. He is a different horse to what he was two years ago. As long as we can keep him sound, it was almost a blessing that he missed last season.

"He was a weak, raw horse and is a much bigger horse. Johnny Burke has sat on him a fair few times at home and he really likes him. I'd say he will go novice chasing. He will start over two and a half miles and will step up to three."

If he runs on the day 14/1 looks big

del roy

3.25 way out west 1pt e/w 20/1 laddies

del roy

209 bets
19 winners
+11pts

3.25 wimpole hall 3pts win 5/1

Wimpole halls last race was over 1m4f where to say Wimpole got a easy/tender ride is a huge understatement, this 1m 3f around Kempton will suit better, had his dosage (2.00) been lower I would have had the max 5pts win on it.

He is a six year old so not much improvement however he is coming down the ratings where as the 1st and 2nd fav at the moment are going up the ratings.

Villette has a dosage of 0.85 which I would normally be interested in however even being 3/6 at Kempton with two of the wins coming in Class 4, she is an obvious choice but I can't get away from WIMPOLE HALLS runs at Kempton.

Villettes class 4 win over today's distance had a time of 2m 20.96s when he carried 8st 11 pound, compare this to Wimpole Hall runs over the c&d

off a 4LB higher rating carrying 9-7 the race was run in 2.19.96s
also only two races back Wimpole ran a very decent 3rd over today's c&d, carrying 9-6 ran in a fairly fast time of 2.17.60s

His style of running means he will be produced at the end of the race and at the prices I am just siding with Wimpole.

I see Technological has just shortened quite a bit in the last 10 minutes however I couldn't have this one at last nights price of 7/2 now 5/2. He has a dosage of 1.40 and is 2/13 in all races. You can also add another three placed efforts to that tally.
However the three times he has ran on a right handed course which Kempton is, his form is

Last of 10
Last of five
Tenth of sixteen

so not for me at 5/2

del roy

I see Technological has just shortened quite a bit in the last 10 minutes however I couldn't have this one at last nights price of 7/2 now 5/2. He has a dosage of 1.40 and is 2/13 in all races. You can also add another three placed efforts to that tally.
However the three times he has ran on a right handed course which Kempton is, his form is

Last of 10
Last of five
Tenth of sixteen

so not for me at 5/2

First time for everything, Jerry.

del roy

210 bets
19 winners
+8pts

3.20. Whydah. 2pts. E/w. 18/1