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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,422 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    If the Central Bank rules didn't exist presently, people would be getting themselves into the same problems they did during 2005 - 2008. We are back to similar conditions in terms of employment levels and earnings and people want to buy. If they were offered a 100% mortgage at 6 times their combined salary they would definitely take it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    If the Central Bank rules didn't exist presently, people would be getting themselves into the same problems they did during 2005 - 2008. We are back to similar conditions in terms of employment levels and earnings and people want to buy. If they were offered a 100% mortgage at 6 times their combined salary they would definitely take it.

    Which implies the CB sitting on its hands was a big factor the previous times.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    The other side to this the largest buyer of houses are cash buyers.

    With the prices so high, (perhaps at near peak) its getting hard to see a return on investment in a decent time frame.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,628 ✭✭✭klaaaz


    A refurbished house near to me in Dublin has dropped price with hardly any viewings. From watching the prices of both houses and apartments on the property websites, there seems to be more price drops appearing now than maybe 5 years ago.

    As for cash buyers, why would they buy when they see price drops? Wait until it's cheaper! :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    If the Central Bank rules didn't exist presently, people would be getting themselves into the same problems they did during 2005 - 2008. We are back to similar conditions in terms of employment levels and earnings and people want to buy. If they were offered a 100% mortgage at 6 times their combined salary they would definitely take it.

    The problem is the middle properties that are affordable for the 50k earners etc. have been pushed up to way above what they are really worth because of the shortage.


  • Registered Users Posts: 236 ✭✭Moonjet


    Friends bought a semi in the top development. Fine houses to be honest but yes strong money.


    They're also adjacent to a halting site.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,172 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Moonjet wrote: »
    They're also adjacent to a halting site. Should not be commanding prices of 500k+.

    Halting site causes zero issues, never has.

    More importantly is that Maynooth has awful traffic issues, the M4 is at capacity, the trains and buses are at capacity. It is a miserable commute and getting worse so unless you work in the town or Intel and cycle, you should look elsewhere.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    beauf wrote: »
    The other side to this the largest buyer of houses are cash buyers.

    With the prices so high, (perhaps at near peak) its getting hard to see a return on investment in a decent time frame.

    Is that still true?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭q85dw7osi4lebg


    Moonjet wrote: »
    They're also adjacent to a halting site. Should not be commanding prices of 500k+.

    That may be so but they are nearly sold out.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭zl1whqvjs75cdy


    Pussyhands wrote: »

    That second one is literally a stones throw from the n4 too. The noise would be ridiculous with trucks flying up and down there all day and night.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭zl1whqvjs75cdy


    That may be so but they are nearly sold out.

    They'd want to be they've been on sale the guts of two years


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,313 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    dave 27 wrote: »
    My take on this "slowdown" is that we are seeing the affects of good banking.

    In the past people could borrow money that had no influence to their income, now that that is stringent enough once people cant afford the 3.5 time salary rate the market will level off.

    I think this is a good sign rather than a bad one, house prices should maybe slow as this wave of people can no longer met the higher bracket of houses.

    I think this is what is happening in Dublin, the cities outside of Dublin still probably have a bit of catch up to do so it probably wont affect the markets in them for another while

    From what I have heard a huge percentage of people buying these days are cash buyers.
    Now lack of mortgages will obviously drive the ratio up, but my understanding is that the cash buyers are far more numerous than then norm.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,313 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    I just sold in South Dublin for 100K over asking with 10 bidders, house Im looking at buying is 65K under asking with no bidders but owners are holding out for more, so the market is all over the place, depending on what level you are at, buying OR selling.


  • Registered Users Posts: 713 ✭✭✭soirish


    ^ Doesn't sound like there is any slow down in Dublin :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,999 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    GreeBo wrote: »
    I just sold in South Dublin for 100K over asking with 10 bidders, house Im looking at buying is 65K under asking with no bidders but owners are holding out for more, so the market is all over the place, depending on what level you are at, buying OR selling.
    What kind of house went 100k over the asking? Not asking for your address or anything but can you tell us if it was a 3 bed semi or whatever?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    house prices fell in Dublin in november check the stats. so yes there is a slowdown.. decembers should be telling also...i would imagine similar

    there is uncertainty surounding brexit global downturn and recession fears


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    trobbin wrote: »
    Anyone notice a big slowdown on property sales? Sister been trying to sell a solid house in Dublin north great area and location but seems to have very little interest. I think it might be priced to high and its freightening people off.

    Guy I know selling a house in less desirable area in Donagemeade, having a few offers but all well below what he wants.

    What are you lot experiencing

    After the crash of `08, they deliberately reblew the property price bubble so that NAMA could offload it`s assets. I think NAMA is to finish up sometime in 2020. Then they won`t care if property prices are bloated or not.

    Of course an even greater economic crash than 2008 could happen before 2020. If that happens, NAMA might not make a profit. Of course the really toxic Anglo debt was not taken on by NAMA. Even if NAMA does make a profit, the bank bailout costs (which include Anglo) will ultimately prove to be an economy killer.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,220 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    After the crash of `08, they deliberately reblew the property price bubble so that NAMA could offload it`s assets. I think NAMA is to finish up sometime in 2020. Then they won`t care if property prices are bloated or not.


    It wasn't just internal policies that reflated the property market, but external ones to, our global economic and financial systems are largely based on continous asset price inflation, and we ve been watching it fail ever since, with no real change in sight of this approach


  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Emery Proud Scabby


    mkdon wrote: »
    house prices fell in Dublin in november check the stats. so yes there is a slowdown.. decembers should be telling also...i would imagine similar

    there is uncertainty surounding brexit global downturn and recession fears

    But how is that possible with estate agents ringing through fake bids on every house??


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 705 ✭✭✭landmarkjohn


    3 houses I was interested in have gone sale agreed in Limerick, Clare, Tipperary area this month. Between €330K - €400K. They seem to be selling.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,600 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Unrealistic house price expectations are blocking the sale of houses here, the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland said in its annual residential property review and outlook.

    The society said this is the main factor in houses failing to shift and comes ahead of issues around mortgages or house sales falling through because the intended buyer has found another property.

    "The challenge for estate agents is managing some vendors' excessive price expectations. Whilst we predict continued house price growth on average this year, there will be winners and losers. It's likely that the property market may correct for some high value properties in Dublin in particular," she added.

    Ms Myler also said that in order to see the market operate efficiently, it needs a regular turnover of sales to help purchasers and sellers to keep moving up and down the ladder.

    "Potentially unrealistic asking prices can leave all parties disappointed, curtailing market movement when it's needed most and as affordability limits kick in," she added.


    link


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]



    It contradicts its self a bit, affordable limits linked to a mortgage are not generally an issue in the purchase of a high-end home.

    Affordable limits linked to a mortgage are an issue at the entry-level market.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭zl1whqvjs75cdy


    Seems to be more of a seller expectation vs reality issue rather than a falling demand issue. Same as any market. A house priced right will sell. One priced too high won't. Could be as simple as that


  • Registered Users Posts: 713 ✭✭✭soirish


    Interesting article about the US market

    Americans stopped buying homes in 2018, mortgage lenders are getting crushed, and an economic storm could be brewing
    https://www.businessinsider.com/falling-home-sales-could-signal-us-recession-2019-1


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭q85dw7osi4lebg


    soirish wrote: »
    Interesting article about the US market

    Americans stopped buying homes in 2018, mortgage lenders are getting crushed, and an economic storm could be brewing
    https://www.businessinsider.com/falling-home-sales-could-signal-us-recession-2019-1

    Take everything BI post with a grain of salt, they are the king of clickbait but a few things in the article stand alright.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭zl1whqvjs75cdy


    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/value-of-mortgage-drawdowns-rose-20-to-8-7bn-last-year-1.3773830?mode=amp

    There is money in the market anyway, just where it's being spent and on what is the real question. Directly contradicts the American analysis above.


  • Registered Users Posts: 34 Dublindamo


    My own take is both sides are right as there is a two tier market. In Dublin a property under 350k is probably still just about affordable. As you move up the chain and over 500k the buyer needs to be earning about 140k+ in addition to having a hefty deposit. The amount of those people are in short supply to those properties simply aren't shifting


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,600 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    Interesting quote in there:
    Goodbody chief economist Dermot O’Leary said that a normal market would see about €14 billion in mortgage drawdowns. This year, he said growth of 16 per cent to about €10 billion of drawdowns is expected.

    So last year the figure was €8.7B. So the value of drawdowns are still ~60% of what they would be in a "normal market". I wonder how much of that is down to number of drawdowns and how much of that is down to the average value of the drawdowns.

    Anyone know what the average number of drawdowns would have been at the turn of the millenium? I can see here that it went from 11k -> 15k from 2011 -> 2014 but those are post-crash figures when lending ground to a near halt.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,571 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    Dublindamo wrote: »
    My own take is both sides are right as there is a two tier market. In Dublin a property under 350k is probably still just about affordable. As you move up the chain and over 500k the buyer needs to be earning about 140k+ in addition to having a hefty deposit. The amount of those people are in short supply to those properties simply aren't shifting

    Indeed. Simple reality is that is a huge sum of money to try pay back and with all the other huge costs of living, penal taxation that remains- the amount of people in the cohort that can afford these vast sums is a small pool indeed.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,313 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    Thargor wrote: »
    What kind of house went 100k over the asking? Not asking for your address or anything but can you tell us if it was a 3 bed semi or whatever?

    3 bed mid terrace, D6.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭Alkers


    Interesting quote in there:


    Perhaps it's not the quantity of sales alone but as there are a larger percentage of cash sales occuring in the current market?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    GreeBo wrote: »
    From what I have heard a huge percentage of people buying these days are cash buyers.
    Now lack of mortgages will obviously drive the ratio up, but my understanding is that the cash buyers are far more numerous than then norm.

    That was true in the bust. I doubt it now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,313 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    That was true in the bust. I doubt it now.

    I'm hearing it from estate agents in the last 6 months.
    If they only accounted for about a fifth of the market or so, as was typically the case, it may not be so much of an issue, but figures show that more than five in every 10 purchases in the residential property market is by a cash buyer.

    It’s a startling figure when considered in an international context. In the UK for example, cash buyers account for around 35 per cent of all transactions, up from 20 per cent in 2005-2006, according to Nationwide, while in London, cash buyers now represent just 19 per cent of the market.
    From that high of 63 per cent in 2013, the proportion has most recently dropped to about 53 per cent.

    From Irish Times Sept 2017


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    Its funny that cash buyers aren’t running out of money. That’s billions spent on housing in the last few years. Maybe low interest rates drive people with savings to buy.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,220 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Its funny that cash buyers aren’t running out of money. That’s billions spent on housing in the last few years. Maybe low interest rates drive people with savings to buy.


    Maybe, or maybe these people were already wealthy in the first place, or have ease of access to wealth, there could be a number of reasons, including your own


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    Maybe, or maybe these people were already wealthy in the first place, or have ease of access to wealth, there could be a number of reasons, including your own

    Well the wealth is assumed since they are buying fairly expensive houses at the top of the recent boom. I’m surprise by the amount of cash and suggesting reasons for people with cash to buy houses, not denying that these people exist as the Irish times is a generally reliable source.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    Maybe, or maybe these people were already wealthy in the first place, or have ease of access to wealth, there could be a number of reasons, including your own

    These kind of cycles boom and bust suit people with access to cash. They can buy and sell quicker to and make more money. Its more difficult people looking for loans, or mortgages to do the same. So it self sustaining. In a slower market I think the difference is less stark.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 724 ✭✭✭Askthe EA


    Just to point out, the vast majority of 'cash' buyers include those trading down or up (if no mortgage).

    'Cash' buyers also include those who have accessed non traditional mortgage funding.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 181 ✭✭trobbin


    Askthe EA wrote: »
    Just to point out, the vast majority of 'cash' buyers include those trading down or up (if no mortgage).

    'Cash' buyers also include those who have accessed non traditional mortgage funding.
    What's your own view on the current trends in the market?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 724 ✭✭✭Askthe EA


    trobbin wrote: »
    What's your own view on the current trends in the market?

    I think its very quiet, especially at the upper end of the market. A lot of waiting and seeing going on. The upper end in Dublin is falling back but thats probably a correction.

    Had 3 conversations this week with people who are coming to market and are holding off until April. Brexit?

    Increased availability of New Homes outside Dublin is depressing the mid point market as most new homes are in and around the 300k mark.

    The iphone generation are terrified of doing any work and only want turn keys so they are performing well.

    Just my two cents


  • Registered Users Posts: 171 ✭✭Col_30


    Askthe EA wrote: »
    The iphone generation are terrified of doing any work and only want turn keys so they are performing well.

    Nice condescension :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 724 ✭✭✭Askthe EA


    Col_30 wrote: »
    Nice condescension :D

    *Shrugs shoulders*

    Ok, thats fair. And I'm obviously generalising, but ....... its true though.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 667 ✭✭✭Balf


    GreeBo wrote: »
    From what I have heard a huge percentage of people buying these days are cash buyers.
    Now lack of mortgages will obviously drive the ratio up, but my understanding is that the cash buyers are far more numerous than then norm.
    Seems to be more than just anecdotal.

    Most of the increased demand in recent years is not funded by mortgages.
    https://igees.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/The-Context-for-NDP-Housing-Spend.pdf

    Annual housing market spend tripled since 2010, from €5 billion to over €14.5 billion

    The €9.5 billion increase is not fuelled by mortgage credit; mortgage drawdowns have increased by only €2.5 billion

    Spend is highly concentrated in a few counties, and tends not to connect to new supply

    o Dublin and the Mid-East accounts for 64% of spend since 2010
    o Second hand market accounts for 80% of spend (€11.8 billion in 2017)
    o New housing market accounts for 20% of spend (€2.8 billion in 2017)
    Does anyone really know where the additional demand comes from?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 724 ✭✭✭Askthe EA


    Balf wrote: »
    .Does anyone really know where the additional demand comes from?

    My educated guess is money coming back from London / US / Oz / Canada.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 612 ✭✭✭KevinCavan


    What you want is a bidding war. Put it up for €100,000 and people will bid each other up, till you have a “winner.”


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 724 ✭✭✭Askthe EA


    KevinCavan wrote: »
    What you want is a bidding war. Put it up for €100,000 and people will bid each other up, till you have a “winner.”

    Shur why dont we put it at €1 altogether so??

    If you go too low, people assume there is something wrong with it. It doesnt appeal to the people we need it to appeal to.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 612 ✭✭✭KevinCavan


    It boils down to if you have the money, can buy and want to buy, then buy. If you have the money and don’t want to buy,fair enough. If you don’t have the money and can’t buy, predicting a crash won’t do you much good.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 612 ✭✭✭KevinCavan


    Askthe EA wrote: »
    Shur why dont we put it at €1 altogether so??

    If you go too low, people assume there is something wrong with it. It doesnt appeal to the people we need it to appeal to.

    You catch my drift though, put it up for €50,000 less than it’s worth. You will drum up plenty of interest and you’ll sell for more than the current asking price.


  • Administrators Posts: 54,256 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Askthe EA wrote: »
    I think its very quiet, especially at the upper end of the market. A lot of waiting and seeing going on. The upper end in Dublin is falling back but thats probably a correction.

    Had 3 conversations this week with people who are coming to market and are holding off until April. Brexit?

    Increased availability of New Homes outside Dublin is depressing the mid point market as most new homes are in and around the 300k mark.

    The iphone generation are terrified of doing any work and only want turn keys so they are performing well.

    Just my two cents
    More like it doesn't make financial sense for most of them.



    Given the iPhone generation are mostly first time buyers, a second hand house would need to either be a bargain or an unbelievable location for them to pass up on the HTB.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭zl1whqvjs75cdy


    awec wrote: »
    More like it doesn't make financial sense for most of them.



    Given the iPhone generation are mostly first time buyers, a second hand house would need to either be a bargain or an unbelievable location for them to pass up on the HTB.

    Would surely depend on the houses. Example. I bought my house for 370. I've done 40 k worth of work to it including new insulation, rads and kitchen. Total cost 410 k. New builds around the corner are 450 k, less HTB of 20 k gives a price of 430 k. You'll still need to floor that etc which I've already included. So the second hand comes in at 20 k cheaper and you get to pick everything in it. Obviously milage will vary with house cost.


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