Slow down

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Ashley Spicy Sunrise wrote: »

That may be so but they are nearly sold out.

They'd want to be they've been on sale the guts of two years

GreeBo

dave 27 wrote: »

My take on this "slowdown" is that we are seeing the affects of good banking.

In the past people could borrow money that had no influence to their income, now that that is stringent enough once people cant afford the 3.5 time salary rate the market will level off.

I think this is a good sign rather than a bad one, house prices should maybe slow as this wave of people can no longer met the higher bracket of houses.

I think this is what is happening in Dublin, the cities outside of Dublin still probably have a bit of catch up to do so it probably wont affect the markets in them for another while

From what I have heard a huge percentage of people buying these days are cash buyers.
Now lack of mortgages will obviously drive the ratio up, but my understanding is that the cash buyers are far more numerous than then norm.

GreeBo

I just sold in South Dublin for 100K over asking with 10 bidders, house Im looking at buying is 65K under asking with no bidders but owners are holding out for more, so the market is all over the place, depending on what level you are at, buying OR selling.

soirish

^ Doesn't sound like there is any slow down in Dublin

Thargor

GreeBo wrote: »

I just sold in South Dublin for 100K over asking with 10 bidders, house Im looking at buying is 65K under asking with no bidders but owners are holding out for more, so the market is all over the place, depending on what level you are at, buying OR selling.

What kind of house went 100k over the asking? Not asking for your address or anything but can you tell us if it was a 3 bed semi or whatever?

mkdon

house prices fell in Dublin in november check the stats. so yes there is a slowdown.. decembers should be telling also...i would imagine similar

there is uncertainty surounding brexit global downturn and recession fears

realitykeeper

trobbin wrote: »

Anyone notice a big slowdown on property sales? Sister been trying to sell a solid house in Dublin north great area and location but seems to have very little interest. I think it might be priced to high and its freightening people off.

Guy I know selling a house in less desirable area in Donagemeade, having a few offers but all well below what he wants.

What are you lot experiencing

After the crash of `08, they deliberately reblew the property price bubble so that NAMA could offload it`s assets. I think NAMA is to finish up sometime in 2020. Then they won`t care if property prices are bloated or not.

Of course an even greater economic crash than 2008 could happen before 2020. If that happens, NAMA might not make a profit. Of course the really toxic Anglo debt was not taken on by NAMA. Even if NAMA does make a profit, the bank bailout costs (which include Anglo) will ultimately prove to be an economy killer.

Wanderer78

realitykeeper wrote:

After the crash of `08, they deliberately reblew the property price bubble so that NAMA could offload it`s assets. I think NAMA is to finish up sometime in 2020. Then they won`t care if property prices are bloated or not.

It wasn't just internal policies that reflated the property market, but external ones to, our global economic and financial systems are largely based on continous asset price inflation, and we ve been watching it fail ever since, with no real change in sight of this approach

Interested Observer

mkdon wrote: »

house prices fell in Dublin in november check the stats. so yes there is a slowdown.. decembers should be telling also...i would imagine similar

there is uncertainty surounding brexit global downturn and recession fears

But how is that possible with estate agents ringing through fake bids on every house??

landmarkjohn

3 houses I was interested in have gone sale agreed in Limerick, Clare, Tipperary area this month. Between €330K - €400K. They seem to be selling.

Brussels Sprout

Unrealistic house price expectations are blocking the sale of houses here, the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland said in its annual residential property review and outlook.

The society said this is the main factor in houses failing to shift and comes ahead of issues around mortgages or house sales falling through because the intended buyer has found another property.

"The challenge for estate agents is managing some vendors' excessive price expectations. Whilst we predict continued house price growth on average this year, there will be winners and losers. It's likely that the property market may correct for some high value properties in Dublin in particular," she added.

Ms Myler also said that in order to see the market operate efficiently, it needs a regular turnover of sales to help purchasers and sellers to keep moving up and down the ladder.

"Potentially unrealistic asking prices can leave all parties disappointed, curtailing market movement when it's needed most and as affordability limits kick in," she added.

link

mariaalice

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

link

It contradicts its self a bit, affordable limits linked to a mortgage are not generally an issue in the purchase of a high-end home.

Affordable limits linked to a mortgage are an issue at the entry-level market.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Seems to be more of a seller expectation vs reality issue rather than a falling demand issue. Same as any market. A house priced right will sell. One priced too high won't. Could be as simple as that

soirish

Interesting article about the US market

Americans stopped buying homes in 2018, mortgage lenders are getting crushed, and an economic storm could be brewing
https://www.businessinsider.com/falling-home-sales-could-signal-us-recession-2019-1

q85dw7osi4lebg

soirish wrote: »

Interesting article about the US market

Americans stopped buying homes in 2018, mortgage lenders are getting crushed, and an economic storm could be brewing
https://www.businessinsider.com/falling-home-sales-could-signal-us-recession-2019-1

Take everything BI post with a grain of salt, they are the king of clickbait but a few things in the article stand alright.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/value-of-mortgage-drawdowns-rose-20-to-8-7bn-last-year-1.3773830?mode=amp

There is money in the market anyway, just where it's being spent and on what is the real question. Directly contradicts the American analysis above.

Dublindamo

My own take is both sides are right as there is a two tier market. In Dublin a property under 350k is probably still just about affordable. As you move up the chain and over 500k the buyer needs to be earning about 140k+ in addition to having a hefty deposit. The amount of those people are in short supply to those properties simply aren't shifting

Brussels Sprout

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/value-of-mortgage-drawdowns-rose-20-to-8-7bn-last-year-1.3773830?mode=amp

Interesting quote in there:

Goodbody chief economist Dermot O’Leary said that a normal market would see about €14 billion in mortgage drawdowns. This year, he said growth of 16 per cent to about €10 billion of drawdowns is expected.

So last year the figure was €8.7B. So the value of drawdowns are still ~60% of what they would be in a "normal market". I wonder how much of that is down to number of drawdowns and how much of that is down to the average value of the drawdowns.

Anyone know what the average number of drawdowns would have been at the turn of the millenium? I can see here that it went from 11k -> 15k from 2011 -> 2014 but those are post-crash figures when lending ground to a near halt.

road_high

Dublindamo wrote: »

My own take is both sides are right as there is a two tier market. In Dublin a property under 350k is probably still just about affordable. As you move up the chain and over 500k the buyer needs to be earning about 140k+ in addition to having a hefty deposit. The amount of those people are in short supply to those properties simply aren't shifting

Indeed. Simple reality is that is a huge sum of money to try pay back and with all the other huge costs of living, penal taxation that remains- the amount of people in the cohort that can afford these vast sums is a small pool indeed.

GreeBo

Thargor wrote: »

What kind of house went 100k over the asking? Not asking for your address or anything but can you tell us if it was a 3 bed semi or whatever?

3 bed mid terrace, D6.

Alkers

Brussels Sprout wrote:

Interesting quote in there:

Perhaps it's not the quantity of sales alone but as there are a larger percentage of cash sales occuring in the current market?

Franz Von Peppercorn

GreeBo wrote: »

From what I have heard a huge percentage of people buying these days are cash buyers.
Now lack of mortgages will obviously drive the ratio up, but my understanding is that the cash buyers are far more numerous than then norm.

That was true in the bust. I doubt it now.

GreeBo

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

That was true in the bust. I doubt it now.

I'm hearing it from estate agents in the last 6 months.

If they only accounted for about a fifth of the market or so, as was typically the case, it may not be so much of an issue, but figures show that more than five in every 10 purchases in the residential property market is by a cash buyer.

It’s a startling figure when considered in an international context. In the UK for example, cash buyers account for around 35 per cent of all transactions, up from 20 per cent in 2005-2006, according to Nationwide, while in London, cash buyers now represent just 19 per cent of the market.

From that high of 63 per cent in 2013, the proportion has most recently dropped to about 53 per cent.

From Irish Times Sept 2017

Franz Von Peppercorn

Its funny that cash buyers aren’t running out of money. That’s billions spent on housing in the last few years. Maybe low interest rates drive people with savings to buy.

Wanderer78

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote:

Its funny that cash buyers aren’t running out of money. That’s billions spent on housing in the last few years. Maybe low interest rates drive people with savings to buy.

Maybe, or maybe these people were already wealthy in the first place, or have ease of access to wealth, there could be a number of reasons, including your own

Franz Von Peppercorn

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Maybe, or maybe these people were already wealthy in the first place, or have ease of access to wealth, there could be a number of reasons, including your own

Well the wealth is assumed since they are buying fairly expensive houses at the top of the recent boom. I’m surprise by the amount of cash and suggesting reasons for people with cash to buy houses, not denying that these people exist as the Irish times is a generally reliable source.

beauf

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Maybe, or maybe these people were already wealthy in the first place, or have ease of access to wealth, there could be a number of reasons, including your own

These kind of cycles boom and bust suit people with access to cash. They can buy and sell quicker to and make more money. Its more difficult people looking for loans, or mortgages to do the same. So it self sustaining. In a slower market I think the difference is less stark.

Askthe EA

Just to point out, the vast majority of 'cash' buyers include those trading down or up (if no mortgage).

'Cash' buyers also include those who have accessed non traditional mortgage funding.

trobbin

Askthe EA wrote: »

Just to point out, the vast majority of 'cash' buyers include those trading down or up (if no mortgage).

'Cash' buyers also include those who have accessed non traditional mortgage funding.

What's your own view on the current trends in the market?

Askthe EA

trobbin wrote: »

What's your own view on the current trends in the market?

I think its very quiet, especially at the upper end of the market. A lot of waiting and seeing going on. The upper end in Dublin is falling back but thats probably a correction.

Had 3 conversations this week with people who are coming to market and are holding off until April. Brexit?

Increased availability of New Homes outside Dublin is depressing the mid point market as most new homes are in and around the 300k mark.

The iphone generation are terrified of doing any work and only want turn keys so they are performing well.

Just my two cents