Brexit Discussion Thread VI

FrancieBrady · 27-01-2019 02:01PM

eagle eye wrote: »

How hard is the EU hit by a hard Brexit?
Are we facing higher taxes, higher prices on domestic necessities etc.?

It's going to be very difficult for the EU. We are going to have to find a home for all the best bits of UK business, brains and talent. The migration has already begun and Europe is on it's knees coping.

fash · 27-01-2019 02:06PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It's going to be very difficult for the EU. We are going to have to find a home for all the best bits of UK business, brains and talent. The migration has already begun and Europe is on it's knees coping.

That's the thing about a crash out brexit: the damage to the UK will be permanent - companies and businesses that move out are not coming back. Damage to other member states is a lot more temporary in nature. Companies in the EU are not planning on moving to the UK.

FrancieBrady · 27-01-2019 02:08PM

fash wrote: »

That's the thing about a crash out brexit: the damage to the UK will be permanent - companies and businesses that move out are not coming back. Damage to other member states is a lot more temporary in nature. Companies in the EU are not planning on moving to the UK.

Absolutely. And we will recover in Ireland too with the great advantage of having cut our dependence on the UK. Ireland finally matures.

Anthracite · 27-01-2019 02:15PM

downcow wrote: »

Is it reasonable to state that?
Eu is basically saying to UK you cannot leave our union as one nation with any deal and we won’t talk about any deal if you dare to leave as one nation.

It seems entirely reasonably given that the UK has existing committments to Ireland that only work without a hard border in Ireland.

I don't see why the backstop is a problem given the people complaining loudest about it are the same people assuring us that there existing technological solutions that can be implemented to obviate the need for it.

CelticRambler · 27-01-2019 02:24PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Anyone help me out here in trying to find parallels in history.

AFAIK the EU is unique in being a trans-national economic partnership, into which individual states enter willingly for mutual benefit.

The only other union that come close would be the United States, where (once the first thirteen had come together) the other states joined of their own volition. However, the US was founded on a contentious bipolar relationship, and has remained so ever since, whereas the EU is arguably a better model of freedom and justice. :cool:

Anthracite · 27-01-2019 02:26PM

I don't recall if this recent Brexiteer humiliation was posted here - I admire the fact that he actually answered the question, but how can he not have thought this through before advocating it?

https://twitter.com/ladyhaja/status/1088594193054879744

lawred2 · 27-01-2019 02:42PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Just out of interest, I know a couple of other countries have expressed support for an extension but have any countries said they would actually object or is it mainly the Brussels establishment that opposes an extension?

The Brussels 'establishment' is the EU. Not sure why you're trying to paint them as some other autonomous body with their own agenda.

jm08 · 27-01-2019 02:49PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

There's already a precedent - the re-unification of Germany. And that's why I think that the "Irish Question" will turn out to be the easiest problem for a post-Brexit chaotic UK to sort out. Because it is already separated from GB (physically, socio-politically and in respect of some regulations, e.g. the all-important agri-sector), and because there won't have been enough time for it to go down the third-country/rouge-state route, the EU can point to the East-Germany example and say to the UK "how about we treat NI as a special case, and use your willingness to sort that out quickly as a barometer of your good faith?"

It has already been agreed with the EU that NI will be automatically accepted into EU in the event of Reunification.

I suspect that Irish Government wanted that off the table so as not to allow EU membershop to be used as an argument against Reunification as it was used in the Scotland independence debate.

Kermit.de.frog · 27-01-2019 03:03PM

Good to see the very strong message put out by the government to the UK media regarding the backstop/contingency today after this week's spinning by Brexiteers.

Capt'n Midnight · 27-01-2019 03:16PM

jm08 wrote: »

The Brexiteer MPs keep claiming that the EU always caves in at the last minute in negotiations and this is what they are banking on. The thing is that compromise may happen between the EU28, but now, as a third country, everything will be different.

Been debunked, even by the BBC's "reality check"
Lisbon and Nice , Greece take your pick. Yes there have been clarifications and fudges within the rules but the EU has kept to it's big red lines.

As Paxman asked someone a long time ago - has the EU ever compromised on principles for money ?

downcow · 27-01-2019 03:19PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Where have the EU said the United Kingdom won't leave as one nation ? The EU have no say in the composition on the UK. And you bloody well know what you are saying is wrong. You realise the withdrawal agreement isn't the end of the process ? The WA is a way to have the UK leave the EU in an orderly way and the two year transition period is to allow for the future relationship between the two parties to be agreed upon. The backstop which you seem to be obsessed with hopefully will never even be used but it's a protection against any border on the island of Ireland should the U.K. and the EU not reach a deal.

Unfortunately the insistence of a backstop is the very reason the will be a border ie the UK has no choice but to leave with no deal and your government will then have no choice but to erect a border.
And to use your language. You bloody well know that and you’ve been told often enough.

judeboy101 · 27-01-2019 03:20PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Been debunked, even by the BBC's "reality check"
Lisbon and Nice , Greece take your pick. Yes there have been clarifications and fudges within the rules but the EU has kept to it's big red lines.

As Paxman asked someone a long time ago - has the EU ever compromised on principles for money ?

They backed down on FOM in Switzerland post Swiss referendum. EU citizens no longer have freedom to get any job they want in the alpine country. Imagine if the UK had been offered that version of FOM before 2016, they'd never have left.

Daemonic · 27-01-2019 03:22PM

downcow wrote: »

Unfortunately the insistence of a backstop is the very reason the will be a border ie the UK has no choice but to leave with no deal and your government will then have no choice but to erect a border.
And to use your language. You bloody well know that and you’ve been told often enough.

And if the UK leaves without a deal they lose all bargaining power as the first items on the list when they look for a trade deal will be the 39m and the backstop.

An Ciarraioch · 27-01-2019 03:22PM

downcow wrote: »

Unfortunately the insistence of a backstop is the very reason the will be a border ie the UK has no choice but to leave with no deal and your government will then have no choice but to erect a border.
And to use your language. You bloody well know that and you’ve been told often enough.

And the EU have offered the UK various options that would have largely eliminated the need for a backstop, such as Norway, Switzerland or Turkey - it was solely May's maximalist interpretation of Brexit that has led to the present impasse.

lawred2 · 27-01-2019 03:23PM

downcow wrote: »

Unfortunately the insistence of a backstop is the very reason the will be a border ie the UK has no choice but to leave with no deal and your government will then have no choice but to erect a border.
And to use your language. You bloody well know that and you’ve been told often enough.

You don't care about the GFA. Grand. The DUP and their likes never have.

But the majority of NI, Ireland and the EU do. Seeking to uphold peace accords is usually considered the right thing to be doing. I don't know, but for me I think you'd have to question yourself and your outlook on life if you actively seeking to position yourself in opposition to such efforts.

fash · 27-01-2019 03:26PM

downcow wrote: »

Unfortunately the insistence of a backstop is the very reason the will be a border ie the UK has no choice but to leave with no deal and your government will then have no choice but to erect a border.
And to use your language. You bloody well know that and you’ve been told often enough.

I accept that that is a very distinct possibility.
Do you also accept that if that happens, the UK will also immediately agree to keeping NI sufficiently aligned to the EU to avoid a hard border?

Capt'n Midnight · 27-01-2019 03:27PM

Calina wrote: »

The withdrawal agreement is not a trade agreement. It is the orderly wind down of UK membership. If you cannot tell the difference you really have a metric tonne to learn.

This cannot be pointed out enough.

Unless the UK cancels Article 50,
all that Brexit has been about so far is whether to practice by doing Level 2 in easy mode, or skip straight to Level 3.

TBH
one reason for taking the WA now is Trump might not be in the White House, the UK will still get screwed over on the deal, but there'll be more certainty it would get signed instead of kicked about like the Backstop.
Similar argument re China but more to let their economy stabilise a bit.

Seth Brundle · 27-01-2019 03:30PM

downcow wrote: »

Unfortunately the insistence of a backstop is the very reason the will be a border ie the UK has no choice but to leave with no deal and your government will then have no choice but to erect a border.

Maybe but a more likely scenario is that the Tories throw the DUP bigots under a bus, something which I doubt they would have any regret in doing.

lawred2 · 27-01-2019 03:31PM

judeboy101 wrote: »

They backed down on FOM in Switzerland post Swiss referendum. EU citizens no longer have freedom to get any job they want in the alpine country. Imagine if the UK had been offered that version of FOM before 2016, they'd never have left.

You trotted that out yesterday and despite being rebutted as not true you've gone and done it again.

For stays less than 90 days - EU Nationals are free to enter and work in Switzerland. Anything longer requires a residence permit which is nothing remotely honerous as the many thousands of EU citizens living and working in Switzerland will attest to.

Anyway why would an EU member be offered such an arrangement?

Midlife · 27-01-2019 03:33PM

2 months to go.

Any idea what the UK actually wants? I actually can't figure it out at all.

downcow · 27-01-2019 03:33PM

lawred2 wrote: »

You don't care about the GFA. Grand. The DUP and their likes never have.

But the majority of NI, Ireland and the EU do. Seeking to uphold peace accords is usually considered the right thing to be doing. I don't know, but for me I think you'd have to question yourself and your outlook on life if you actively seeking to position yourself in opposition to such efforts.

This is dillusional most of Eu won’t even know what gfa is never mind care about it. You need to realise ireland is not at the centre of the universe. North or south. No one will lose sleep over whether Paris or London. Get some perspective.

Peace was coming anyway Gfa speeded it along a little. But the writing was on the wall. The terrorists on all sides were defeated. It’s over. But it suits some to pretend that the majority of the nationalist community are about to throw their support behind another sectarian campaign. We have all moved on

Calina · 27-01-2019 03:35PM

downcow wrote: »

Unfortunately the insistence of a backstop is the very reason the will be a border ie the UK has no choice but to leave with no deal and your government will then have no choice but to erect a border.
And to use your language. You bloody well know that and you’ve been told often enough.

The UK has a choice not to leave at all. The legislation for that referendum specified it was not binding. You bloody well know this as it was said often enough.

Capt'n Midnight · 27-01-2019 03:37PM

judeboy101 wrote: »

They backed down on FOM in Switzerland post Swiss referendum. EU citizens no longer have freedom to get any job they want in the alpine country. Imagine if the UK had been offered that version of FOM before 2016, they'd never have left.

And yet
https://www.ch.ch/en/working-switzerland-eu-efta/

Citizens from EU-25*/EFTA** states enjoy full freedom of movement. This means that citizens of those countries are free to travel to Switzerland, and to live and work here.

BTW this is where the UK is headed
https://euobserver.com/economic/143739

The EU Commission said on Monday (17 December) it would allow another six-month period for the Swiss stock exchange to maintain access to the EU market - but by then it wants Switzerland to endorse a new treaty with the bloc.

Leroy42 · 27-01-2019 03:37PM

downcow wrote: »

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Where have the EU said the United Kingdom won't leave as one nation ? The EU have no say in the composition on the UK. And you bloody well know what you are saying is wrong. You realise the withdrawal agreement isn't the end of the process ? The WA is a way to have the UK leave the EU in an orderly way and the two year transition period is to allow for the future relationship between the two parties to be agreed upon. The backstop which you seem to be obsessed with hopefully will never even be used but it's a protection against any border on the island of Ireland should the U.K. and the EU not reach a deal.

Unfortunately the insistence of a backstop is the very reason the will be a border ie the UK has no choice but to leave with no deal and your government will then have no choice but to erect a border.
And to use your language. You bloody well know that and you’ve been told often enough.

I'll ask again. What is the alternative? You clearly hate the option of the backstop but you, the DUP or the UK have offered a workable alternative.

So the UK wants to leave but failed to consider NI. When confronted with the issue TM agreed to the backstop, later agreed by the cabinet. But they had second thoughts.

Which seem to amount to 'We don't like it and that's it.

So you have decided that a crash out is preferable to either a backstop or remain.

At the very least I think more than just a minority of people in NI should have a say on such a fundamental issue.

Or of course put forward an alternative rather than blaming those that have actually tried to deal with the problem

Calina · 27-01-2019 03:37PM

Midlife wrote: »

2 months to go.

Any idea what the UK actually wants? I actually can't figure it out at all.

They want 650 mutually incompatible things. Basically.

They want 1) all the benefits of the single market 2) for free 3) no foreigners 4) unicorns and 5) possibly Boris for PM.

Calina · 27-01-2019 03:40PM

downcow wrote: »

This is dillusional most of Eu won’t even know what gfa is never mind care about it. You need to realise ireland is not at the centre of the universe. North or south. No one will lose sleep over whether Paris or London. Get some perspective.

Peace was coming anyway Gfa speeded it along a little. But the writing was on the wall. The terrorists on all sides were defeated. It’s over. But it suits some to pretend that the majority of the nationalist community are about to throw their support behind another sectarian campaign. We have all moved on

They know what an open border with a third country is, however. You may want to consider that.

lawred2 · 27-01-2019 03:41PM

downcow wrote: »

This is dillusional most of Eu won’t even know what gfa is never mind care about it. You need to realise ireland is not at the centre of the universe. North or south. No one will lose sleep over whether Paris or London. Get some perspective.

Peace was coming anyway Gfa speeded it along a little. But the writing was on the wall. The terrorists on all sides were defeated. It’s over. But it suits some to pretend that the majority of the nationalist community are about to through their support behind another sectarian campaign. We have all moved on

I think you've misinterpreted me there sport. The majority I was referring to was only Northern Ireland.

The EU I was referring to was what you like to call 'Brussels' and 'Brussels' knows what peace accords are and what borders with third countries are.

You however clearly don't.

BKtje · 27-01-2019 03:43PM

As a current resident of the Alpine country, i csn tell you that i had 90 days to find a job. Any job. Once i had a job i got my 5 year temporary residence permit. After those 5 years I automatically got my long term residency permit.

If anything the Swiss have backed down thus far and while the country remain EU sceptic they also realise the importance of their bi laterals (for the most part).

CelticRambler · 27-01-2019 04:01PM

downcow wrote: »

This is dillusional most of Eu won’t even know what gfa is never mind care about it. You need to realise ireland is not at the centre of the universe. North or south. No one will lose sleep over whether Paris or London. Get some perspective.

... and most of the English don't know or care what the GFA is; and the DUP need to realise NI is not at the centre of the UK. No-one in London will lose any sleep about it, if NI is relegated to having more of a provincial status than it already is.

It's actually quite sad looking on from the sidelines at the DUP, clinging on to a foster mother that really couldn't give a damn about them. If they weren't so utterly determined to always think badly of the "south-of-the-border" Irish, they might realise that we care about them and their well-being far more than Westminster does.

RobMc59 · 27-01-2019 04:09PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

... and most of the English don't know or care what the GFA is; and the DUP need to realise NI is not at the centre of the UK. No-one in London will lose any sleep about it, if NI is relegated to having more of a provincial status than it already is.

It's actually quite sad looking on from the sidelines at the DUP, clinging on to a foster mother that really couldn't give a damn about them. If they weren't so utterly determined to always think badly of the "south-of-the-border" Irish, they might realise that we care about them and their well-being far more than Westminster does.

In the last week or so we have seen renewed terrorist activities from yet again another new IRA hybrid-in addition to this the Taoiseach has said there will be garda armed with automatic weapons on the hard border supported by the army!-and some call the English and DUP!(by the way I have no time for the DUP or SF).

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

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