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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Strazdas

judeboy101 wrote: »

They backed down on FOM in Switzerland post Swiss referendum. EU citizens no longer have freedom to get any job they want in the alpine country. Imagine if the UK had been offered that version of FOM before 2016, they'd never have left.

Not true :

Following protracted discussions between Switzerland and the EU, the Swiss government largely climbed down from the initial referendum proposals, adopting instead a "light national preference" to implement the referendum. This outcome was decried as a failure to properly implement the referendum by the Swiss SVP party (which had promoted the referendum) as it fails to put any curbs on immigration.

The Swiss government had to back down on its red lines and largely ignore the referendum result, shock, horror.

CelticRambler

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Can the Irish government afford Northern Ireland?? Could we support their public spending, could we support their social/pension system???

...

I have also seen the damage done here in Germany by joining East and West.....one major eye sore is the pension system which is on its knees.

The cost of reunification is the subject of another thread (zzz - plural! :rolleyes: ) and the question has not yet been answered one way or the other! But the investment advert small print applies: "past results are no guarantee of future performance" - and if you take NI out of the UK, you change everything about the NI economy.

As for the German pension problem - that's not unique to Germany. It's the same across the whole western hemisphere, where decreasing rates of childbirth, increasing life expectancy, and stagnant real wages have made the 20th century model for state pensions obsolete. Here in France, the system isn't just on its knees - it's had both knees and hips replaced and still can't stand up straight. The UK is facing the same future, but instead of working on plans to defuse that social timebomb, it's devoting all its energy to sawing the legs of its zimmer frame.

road_high

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

I would ask the question......Can the Irish government afford Northern Ireland?? Could we support their public spending, could we support their social/pension system???....the list goes on. I see Ireland (I have been living away for 20 odd years) struggling with what it has at the moment without the burden of more. I have also seen the damage done here in Germany by joining East and West.....one major eye sore is the pension system which is on its knees. They were not ready to take on the problems East Germany brought with it.......high unemployment etc.

I personally feel the best and easiest way of solving things is to make Northern Ireland independant. Let them run their own country, let them decide if they want to be EU members after 1 or 2 years......until then they have to fend for themselves.

NI couldn’t function as independent in any way, shape or form. It’s an economic basket case, it’s a total disaster area. Without that massive subsidy from England it would collapse, and I mean utter collapse.

Zubeneschamali

downcow wrote: »

Unfortunately the insistence of a backstop is the very reason the will be a border ie the UK has no choice but to leave with no deal and your government will then have no choice but to erect a border.

They do have a choice. They could still sign Mays deal or they could cancel Brexit. Both of those choices would do less damage than No Deal, which would be the maddest act of self harm any nation has ever done to itself short of civil war.

CelticRambler

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

BTW this is where the UK is headed
https://euobserver.com/economic/143739

With all the talk about the backstop, this is where Brexit is really going to hurt the UK: services, especially financial services. It's symbolic of the whole Brexit débacle that so much media attention has been devoted to something that may or may not affect a fraction of the UK's population - border controls on the island of Ireland - when the most important contribution to the UK's economy is going to be killed stone dead in two months.

London is not a great financial centre "just because" - it has been the back door into the EU for dozens of non-EU countries, like Switzerland. These countries needed an office in an EU country, and London's simultaneous connections to the EU and the anglosphere gave it an advantage over other continental cities. That's gone now, and as the world evolves, those angloshere connections will be less important in the future, so there's no reason to think offices that have moved will ever be re-established.

The most ardent Brexiteers go on and on (and on and on ...) about Britain being a great world economy and so it will inevitably recover from whatever harm arises from Brexit, especially on the back of trade deals with emerging economies around the world. They fail to see that two of those so-called emerging economies - India and Brazil - are hot on the heels of the UK, and a 5% hit to the UK will see it fall into the minor rankings with countries like Italy, South Korea and Canada. Negotiating great deals is never easy when your tag line is "fastest shrinking economy in the northern hemisphere" ...

EdgeCase

I think we have to be aware of the fact that not everyone in England voted for this and many of those who did were unaware of the implications or were grossly mislead.

By and large, when presented with reality and facts, most people in England are pragmatic and quite centrist in my experience of the place.
Most people in London for example didn't to vote for Brexit and most of them are rather progressive, openminded and aware of geopolitics in my experience.
For every die-hard brexiteer, there are a lot of people very very concerned about the implications for NI.

It's very important not to just assume that "the English" do x, y or z. It's a lot more nuanced than that and I think most Irish people are fully aware of that too.

The sense I get is that England has been 'had' by conmen.

First Up

lawred2 wrote:

The Brussels 'establishment' is the EU. Not sure why you're trying to paint them as some other autonomous body with their own agenda.

The "Brussels establishment" is a Brexit and populist cliche. The EU is twenty seven countries.

Irishmale0399

CelticRambler wrote: »

... and most of the English don't know or care what the GFA is; and the DUP need to realise NI is not at the centre of the UK. No-one in London will lose any sleep about it, if NI is relegated to having more of a provincial status than it already is.

It's actually quite sad looking on from the sidelines at the DUP, clinging on to a foster mother that really couldn't give a damn about them. If they weren't so utterly determined to always think badly of the "south-of-the-border" Irish, they might realise that we care about them and their well-being far more than Westminster does.

I would ask the question......Can the Irish government afford Northern Ireland?? Could we support their public spending, could we support their social/pension system???....the list goes on. I see Ireland (I have been living away for 20 odd years) struggling with what it has at the moment without the burden of more. I have also seen the damage done here in Germany by joining East and West.....one major eye sore is the pension system which is on its knees. They were not ready to take on the problems East Germany brought with it.......high unemployment etc.

I personally feel the best and easiest way of solving things is to make Northern Ireland independant. Let them run their own country, let them decide if they want to be EU members after 1 or 2 years......until then they have to fend for themselves.

RobMc59

CelticRambler wrote: »

... and most of the English don't know or care what the GFA is; and the DUP need to realise NI is not at the centre of the UK. No-one in London will lose any sleep about it, if NI is relegated to having more of a provincial status than it already is.

It's actually quite sad looking on from the sidelines at the DUP, clinging on to a foster mother that really couldn't give a damn about them. If they weren't so utterly determined to always think badly of the "south-of-the-border" Irish, they might realise that we care about them and their well-being far more than Westminster does.

In the last week or so we have seen renewed terrorist activities from yet again another new IRA hybrid-in addition to this the Taoiseach has said there will be garda armed with automatic weapons on the hard border supported by the army!-and some call the English and DUP!(by the way I have no time for the DUP or SF).

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

This is dillusional most of Eu won’t even know what gfa is never mind care about it. You need to realise ireland is not at the centre of the universe. North or south. No one will lose sleep over whether Paris or London. Get some perspective.

... and most of the English don't know or care what the GFA is; and the DUP need to realise NI is not at the centre of the UK. No-one in London will lose any sleep about it, if NI is relegated to having more of a provincial status than it already is.

It's actually quite sad looking on from the sidelines at the DUP, clinging on to a foster mother that really couldn't give a damn about them. If they weren't so utterly determined to always think badly of the "south-of-the-border" Irish, they might realise that we care about them and their well-being far more than Westminster does.

BKtje

As a current resident of the Alpine country, i csn tell you that i had 90 days to find a job. Any job. Once i had a job i got my 5 year temporary residence permit. After those 5 years I automatically got my long term residency permit.

If anything the Swiss have backed down thus far and while the country remain EU sceptic they also realise the importance of their bi laterals (for the most part).

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

This is dillusional most of Eu won’t even know what gfa is never mind care about it. You need to realise ireland is not at the centre of the universe. North or south. No one will lose sleep over whether Paris or London. Get some perspective.

Peace was coming anyway Gfa speeded it along a little. But the writing was on the wall. The terrorists on all sides were defeated. It’s over. But it suits some to pretend that the majority of the nationalist community are about to through their support behind another sectarian campaign. We have all moved on

I think you've misinterpreted me there sport. The majority I was referring to was only Northern Ireland.

The EU I was referring to was what you like to call 'Brussels' and 'Brussels' knows what peace accords are and what borders with third countries are.

You however clearly don't.

Calina

downcow wrote: »

This is dillusional most of Eu won’t even know what gfa is never mind care about it. You need to realise ireland is not at the centre of the universe. North or south. No one will lose sleep over whether Paris or London. Get some perspective.

Peace was coming anyway Gfa speeded it along a little. But the writing was on the wall. The terrorists on all sides were defeated. It’s over. But it suits some to pretend that the majority of the nationalist community are about to throw their support behind another sectarian campaign. We have all moved on

They know what an open border with a third country is, however. You may want to consider that.

Calina

Midlife wrote: »

2 months to go.

Any idea what the UK actually wants? I actually can't figure it out at all.

They want 650 mutually incompatible things. Basically.

They want 1) all the benefits of the single market 2) for free 3) no foreigners 4) unicorns and 5) possibly Boris for PM.

Leroy42

downcow wrote: »

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Where have the EU said the United Kingdom won't leave as one nation ? The EU have no say in the composition on the UK. And you bloody well know what you are saying is wrong. You realise the withdrawal agreement isn't the end of the process ? The WA is a way to have the UK leave the EU in an orderly way and the two year transition period is to allow for the future relationship between the two parties to be agreed upon. The backstop which you seem to be obsessed with hopefully will never even be used but it's a protection against any border on the island of Ireland should the U.K. and the EU not reach a deal.

Unfortunately the insistence of a backstop is the very reason the will be a border ie the UK has no choice but to leave with no deal and your government will then have no choice but to erect a border.
And to use your language. You bloody well know that and you’ve been told often enough.

I'll ask again. What is the alternative? You clearly hate the option of the backstop but you, the DUP or the UK have offered a workable alternative.

So the UK wants to leave but failed to consider NI. When confronted with the issue TM agreed to the backstop, later agreed by the cabinet. But they had second thoughts.

Which seem to amount to 'We don't like it and that's it.

So you have decided that a crash out is preferable to either a backstop or remain.

At the very least I think more than just a minority of people in NI should have a say on such a fundamental issue.

Or of course put forward an alternative rather than blaming those that have actually tried to deal with the problem

Capt'n Midnight

judeboy101 wrote: »

They backed down on FOM in Switzerland post Swiss referendum. EU citizens no longer have freedom to get any job they want in the alpine country. Imagine if the UK had been offered that version of FOM before 2016, they'd never have left.

And yet
https://www.ch.ch/en/working-switzerland-eu-efta/

Citizens from EU-25*/EFTA** states enjoy full freedom of movement. This means that citizens of those countries are free to travel to Switzerland, and to live and work here.

BTW this is where the UK is headed
https://euobserver.com/economic/143739

The EU Commission said on Monday (17 December) it would allow another six-month period for the Swiss stock exchange to maintain access to the EU market - but by then it wants Switzerland to endorse a new treaty with the bloc.

Calina

downcow wrote: »

Unfortunately the insistence of a backstop is the very reason the will be a border ie the UK has no choice but to leave with no deal and your government will then have no choice but to erect a border.
And to use your language. You bloody well know that and you’ve been told often enough.

The UK has a choice not to leave at all. The legislation for that referendum specified it was not binding. You bloody well know this as it was said often enough.

downcow

lawred2 wrote: »

You don't care about the GFA. Grand. The DUP and their likes never have.

But the majority of NI, Ireland and the EU do. Seeking to uphold peace accords is usually considered the right thing to be doing. I don't know, but for me I think you'd have to question yourself and your outlook on life if you actively seeking to position yourself in opposition to such efforts.

This is dillusional most of Eu won’t even know what gfa is never mind care about it. You need to realise ireland is not at the centre of the universe. North or south. No one will lose sleep over whether Paris or London. Get some perspective.

Peace was coming anyway Gfa speeded it along a little. But the writing was on the wall. The terrorists on all sides were defeated. It’s over. But it suits some to pretend that the majority of the nationalist community are about to throw their support behind another sectarian campaign. We have all moved on

Midlife

2 months to go.

Any idea what the UK actually wants? I actually can't figure it out at all.

lawred2

judeboy101 wrote: »

They backed down on FOM in Switzerland post Swiss referendum. EU citizens no longer have freedom to get any job they want in the alpine country. Imagine if the UK had been offered that version of FOM before 2016, they'd never have left.

You trotted that out yesterday and despite being rebutted as not true you've gone and done it again.

For stays less than 90 days - EU Nationals are free to enter and work in Switzerland. Anything longer requires a residence permit which is nothing remotely honerous as the many thousands of EU citizens living and working in Switzerland will attest to.

Anyway why would an EU member be offered such an arrangement?

Seth Brundle

downcow wrote: »

Unfortunately the insistence of a backstop is the very reason the will be a border ie the UK has no choice but to leave with no deal and your government will then have no choice but to erect a border.

Maybe but a more likely scenario is that the Tories throw the DUP bigots under a bus, something which I doubt they would have any regret in doing.

Capt'n Midnight

Calina wrote: »

The withdrawal agreement is not a trade agreement. It is the orderly wind down of UK membership. If you cannot tell the difference you really have a metric tonne to learn.

This cannot be pointed out enough.

Unless the UK cancels Article 50,
all that Brexit has been about so far is whether to practice by doing Level 2 in easy mode, or skip straight to Level 3.

TBH
one reason for taking the WA now is Trump might not be in the White House, the UK will still get screwed over on the deal, but there'll be more certainty it would get signed instead of kicked about like the Backstop.
Similar argument re China but more to let their economy stabilise a bit.

fash

downcow wrote: »

Unfortunately the insistence of a backstop is the very reason the will be a border ie the UK has no choice but to leave with no deal and your government will then have no choice but to erect a border.
And to use your language. You bloody well know that and you’ve been told often enough.

I accept that that is a very distinct possibility.
Do you also accept that if that happens, the UK will also immediately agree to keeping NI sufficiently aligned to the EU to avoid a hard border?

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

Unfortunately the insistence of a backstop is the very reason the will be a border ie the UK has no choice but to leave with no deal and your government will then have no choice but to erect a border.
And to use your language. You bloody well know that and you’ve been told often enough.

You don't care about the GFA. Grand. The DUP and their likes never have.

But the majority of NI, Ireland and the EU do. Seeking to uphold peace accords is usually considered the right thing to be doing. I don't know, but for me I think you'd have to question yourself and your outlook on life if you actively seeking to position yourself in opposition to such efforts.

An Ciarraioch

downcow wrote: »

Unfortunately the insistence of a backstop is the very reason the will be a border ie the UK has no choice but to leave with no deal and your government will then have no choice but to erect a border.
And to use your language. You bloody well know that and you’ve been told often enough.

And the EU have offered the UK various options that would have largely eliminated the need for a backstop, such as Norway, Switzerland or Turkey - it was solely May's maximalist interpretation of Brexit that has led to the present impasse.

Daemonic

downcow wrote: »

Unfortunately the insistence of a backstop is the very reason the will be a border ie the UK has no choice but to leave with no deal and your government will then have no choice but to erect a border.
And to use your language. You bloody well know that and you’ve been told often enough.

And if the UK leaves without a deal they lose all bargaining power as the first items on the list when they look for a trade deal will be the 39m and the backstop.

judeboy101

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Been debunked, even by the BBC's "reality check"
Lisbon and Nice , Greece take your pick. Yes there have been clarifications and fudges within the rules but the EU has kept to it's big red lines.

As Paxman asked someone a long time ago - has the EU ever compromised on principles for money ?

They backed down on FOM in Switzerland post Swiss referendum. EU citizens no longer have freedom to get any job they want in the alpine country. Imagine if the UK had been offered that version of FOM before 2016, they'd never have left.

downcow

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Where have the EU said the United Kingdom won't leave as one nation ? The EU have no say in the composition on the UK. And you bloody well know what you are saying is wrong. You realise the withdrawal agreement isn't the end of the process ? The WA is a way to have the UK leave the EU in an orderly way and the two year transition period is to allow for the future relationship between the two parties to be agreed upon. The backstop which you seem to be obsessed with hopefully will never even be used but it's a protection against any border on the island of Ireland should the U.K. and the EU not reach a deal.

Unfortunately the insistence of a backstop is the very reason the will be a border ie the UK has no choice but to leave with no deal and your government will then have no choice but to erect a border.
And to use your language. You bloody well know that and you’ve been told often enough.

Capt'n Midnight

jm08 wrote: »

The Brexiteer MPs keep claiming that the EU always caves in at the last minute in negotiations and this is what they are banking on. The thing is that compromise may happen between the EU28, but now, as a third country, everything will be different.

Been debunked, even by the BBC's "reality check"
Lisbon and Nice , Greece take your pick. Yes there have been clarifications and fudges within the rules but the EU has kept to it's big red lines.

As Paxman asked someone a long time ago - has the EU ever compromised on principles for money ?

Kermit.de.frog

Good to see the very strong message put out by the government to the UK media regarding the backstop/contingency today after this week's spinning by Brexiteers.