Brexit land

dr.fuzzenstein · 26-01-2019 07:05PM

super_furry wrote: »

Play our cards right and we can get Scotland along with the North back.

That would be awesome. (Scotland, not necessarily NI

)
And so many Englanders would be spitting acid, blood and venom.
Sod the lying bastards.

mad muffin · 26-01-2019 07:25PM

Is it my imagination or has there been more, if Ireland doesn’t make a deal and the uk crashes out. Ireland’s going to get it on the nose?

So now it’s up to Ireland to make this shït storm work? Wtf…

whisky_galore · 26-01-2019 07:34PM

super_furry wrote: »

Play our cards right and we can get Scotland along with the North back.

Nope. Re NI...We are full up down here as far as nutters are concerned. Don't need any more, and could do without the hassle of propping up that statelet.
Dream on.

Johnny Red Cab · 26-01-2019 07:38PM

Revenge for 800 years will be so sweet. A dish best served cold.

26-01-2019 07:44PM

I could be wrong, but I'm sure we've lived through the longest period of peace in Western Europe.

It all had to end sometime, and it'll end very soon.

Buford T Justice · 26-01-2019 07:56PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I could be wrong, but I'm sure we've lived through the longest period of peace in Western Europe.

It all had to end sometime, and it'll end very soon.

England aren't the empire they once were. Nothing more than a bunch of lager swilling curry eating uneducated racist on the sick slobs these days. At least the ones who voted to leave are. Hardly an end to peace in western europe.

Church on Tuesday · 26-01-2019 08:05PM

I feel sorry for half of the country who wished to remain.

Worked with some of these people over there, good people too.

It's a shame all round. The ones who voted to leave are the ones with nothing to lose as they'll mostly be dead in the next fifteen odd years and have retired in any event and the rest come from Stoke.

CalamariFritti · 26-01-2019 08:05PM

I agree with almost everything thats been said so far here.
Unfortunately thats not how a lot of the British/English see it. There is a strong narrative over there that the sole reason Brexit is such a mess is the bad bad EU thats all out to humiliate and punish them. Not their own fvck up at all. When things go tits up this is only going to get worse.

So I feel while in one way they deserve everything thats coming their way, I'm not sure I want to see it happening. This could get very very ugly yet.

But unfortunately we are already at a point of no return IMO. They cannot turn back from this without losing face completely, polarising things even more. And even if they did, what kind of EU would that be with them sitting back at the table? That would be an awkward first Monday morning meeting back in the EU...
It cant happen IMO, They were always difficult as it was, in the future they would just be impossible. Even if they cancelled Brexit tomorrow I think bridges are burned already and how could you trust them not to pull the same 2 year long stunt 6 months down the road?

No I think it's irreversible. The best outcome would now be to come at least sto ome sort of amicable solution that both sides can live with and then move on. All other options are just looking ugly.

Agricola · 26-01-2019 09:00PM

I just feel sorry for the 48% in 2016 (and probably a majority now) who are being held hostage by this total clusterfúck.

Could you imagine a governing party in Ireland comprising of a huge number of liars, sociopaths and disaster capitalists who were contriving to pull us out of the EU all for their own gain and completely against the national interest, and they managed to do this by a campaign of lies and deceit to fraudulently win a referendum. It beggars belief.

But there's no going back now. The Brits who voted leave will only get more entrenched the closer they come to a cancellation of Brexit or a second referendum and they'll just bring along a lot of luke warm remainers with them. A close run 2nd referendum with a similar result wont solve anything. They best they can do now is get through the softest of Brexits and practically stay in the EU when it's all said and done. Then all the mouth breathers can go back to doing what they were doing before 2015, ie not giving much of shít about the EU at all.

paw patrol · 26-01-2019 09:41PM

Buford T Justice wrote: »

England aren't the empire they once were. Nothing more than a bunch of lager swilling curry eating uneducated racist on the sick slobs these days. At least the ones who voted to leave are. Hardly an end to peace in western europe.

only a clown would make that statement (piece in bold)

In the event of a hard Brexit after an initial period of uncertainty and perhaps some issues that will lead to a chorus of smug "we told you so.." from Fintan O'Toole and his like-minded gimps, the UK will be fine. Not only will it be fine it will be free from the yolk of the EU and it's unelected mandarins.

The doomsday stuff in some posts here is laughable,

peasant · 26-01-2019 09:50PM

paw patrol wrote: »

... it will be free from the yolk of the EU and it's unelected mandarins.

*YOKE*

Your populist metaphor kinda loses its power once you bring eggs into it

paw patrol · 26-01-2019 10:20PM

peasant wrote: »

*YOKE*

Your populist metaphor kinda loses its power once you bring eggs into it

damn :eek:

you got me

fly_agaric · 26-01-2019 10:54PM

The Great British people have had enough of these eggsperts and eggheads with their chicken little talk of the economy taking a beating. They need to go to work on an egg.

Seth Brundle · 26-01-2019 11:04PM

paw patrol wrote: »

In the event of a hard Brexit after an initial period of uncertainty and perhaps some issues that will lead to a chorus of smug "we told you so.." from Fintan O'Toole and his like-minded gimps, the UK will be fine.

...except that from a trade perspective they'll be fecked most likely leading to a massive recession.
They already have lost significant multinational operations especially in terms of finance. This could easily over the next decade lead to a huge brain drain as the smart graduates GTFO of the UK.
Fine indeed. :rolleyes:

paw patrol wrote: »

Not only will it be fine it will be free from the yolk of the EU and it's unelected mandarins.

Jaysus not this crap again. The EU has less civil servants than Westminster.
Those in power are elected so I presume you're happy with them.
But that's all bad anyhow, right?

Capt'n Midnight · 26-01-2019 11:44PM

mad muffin wrote: »

Is it my imagination or has there been more, if Ireland doesn’t make a deal and the uk crashes out. Ireland’s going to get it on the nose?

So now it’s up to Ireland to make this shït storm work? Wtf…

We loose 4% growth. We always knew how dependent we were on the UK and the Tories have been mumbling about leaving for years. The ERSI report came out in Nov. 2015 so we haven't been blind-sided like UK keeps appearing to be.

So our growth would be only 1.5% for a year and then it's back to business as usual.

1.5% is a number the UK would be proud of right now, and a complete pipe dream for NI. In a Hard Brexit the UK would have negative growth and NI just drops off a cliff. We loose a year, NI looses a decade and that's not even a worst case.

Undividual · 27-01-2019 12:30AM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

We loose 4% growth. We always knew how dependent we were on the UK and the Tories have been mumbling about leaving for years. The ERSI report came out in Nov. 2015 so we haven't been blind-sided like UK keeps appearing to be.

So our growth would be only 1.5% for a year and then it's back to business as usual.

1.5% is a number the UK would be proud of right now, and a complete pipe dream for NI. In a Hard Brexit the UK would have negative growth and NI just drops off a cliff. We loose a year, NI looses a decade and that's not even a worst case.

If I was living in England, I would still vote to leave.

The short term projections for the UK look bad or very bad but they're a major economy and will eventually bounce back. Trading with the rest of the world will definitely allow them to grow certain industries that the EU hampered (fishing/agriculture). I'd be surprised if economically they weren't back to where they are now in a decade.

The main thing will be that they can then control their own trade, legal system, borders, and social spending. If they want, they could cut corporate tax to 0%.
With the EU gearing up for their own army and lacking a comprehensive response on the migrant crisis, it looks like the UK might just be the first to see the changing of the tide... as bitter as the medicine may taste.

Capt'n Midnight · 27-01-2019 01:12AM

Undividual wrote: »

If I was living in England, I would still vote to leave.

The short term projections for the UK look bad or very bad but they're a major economy and will eventually bounce back. Trading with the rest of the world will definitely allow them to grow certain industries that the EU hampered (fishing/agriculture). I'd be surprised if economically they weren't back to where they are now in a decade.

Just in case you weren't aware, the UK imports most of it's food and fish.

UK and Dutch eat each others food due to preferences for different species. And six countries including us have pre EU fishing treaties.
Bruges has a document signed by Charles II himself back in 1666 granting eternal rights.

Grove's father had a fish factory. And Grove has sold out every chance he got. Half of NI's quota is held by one boat. 1% of Scotland's quota is held by inshore fishermen. Most of the UK quota is held by big , mostly foreign business. And the UK isn't imposing the existing rules. UK fishermen continue to be screwed over.

The main thing will be that they can then control their own trade, legal system, borders, and social spending. If they want, they could cut corporate tax to 0%.

Ever read fast food nation ?
EU health and safety rules imposed on US supplies.
If the UK cuts tax to 0% then the economy will tank. Thanks to Brexit uncertainty the UK treasury is already down £500m a week. And borrowing under the Tories has soared too.

With the EU gearing up for their own army and lacking a comprehensive response on the migrant crisis, it looks like the UK might just be the first to see the changing of the tide... as bitter as the medicine may taste.

The army thing is a barefaced lie.

As for immigration ? Enoch Powell's 'Rivers of Blood' speech complains about letting in "50,000 dependants", May let more than that in from China alone last year and they aren't even in the Commonwealth :rolleyes:

Undividual · 27-01-2019 01:53AM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Just in case you weren't aware, the UK imports most of it's food and fish.

UK and Dutch eat each others food due to preferences for different species. And six countries including us have pre EU fishing treaties.
Bruges has a document signed by Charles II himself back in 1666 granting eternal rights.

Grove's father had a fish factory. And Grove has sold out every chance he got. Half of NI's quota is held by one boat. 1% of Scotland's quota is held by inshore fishermen. Most of the UK quota is held by big , mostly foreign business. And the UK isn't imposing the existing rules. UK fishermen continue to be screwed over.

Ever read fast food nation ?
EU health and safety rules imposed on US supplies.
If the UK cuts tax to 0% then the economy will tank. Thanks to Brexit uncertainty the UK treasury is already down £500m a week. And borrowing under the Tories has soared too.

The army thing is a barefaced lie.

As for immigration ? Enoch Powell's 'Rivers of Blood' speech complains about letting in "50,000 dependants", May let more than that in from China alone last year and they aren't even in the Commonwealth :rolleyes:

I take your points about the fisheries/agricultural policies and quotas but as of now those can generally be negotiated. I believe the UK gets 30% of its food imports from the EU. It is extremely unlikely that the EU will cut off its nose to spite its face when dealing with the UK, so much of those agreements will remain intact. The remainder should be replaceable by opening up trade relations with non-EU countries and through increased domestic production over time.

I'm not so sure about the EU army. Given the steps they've taken over the past 20 years to consolidate EU authority, an army would make sense.

“You would not create a European army to use it immediately,” Juncker told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper in Germany in an interview published on Sunday.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/08/jean-claude-juncker-calls-for-eu-army-european-commission-miltary

Were those people from China working or studying? Were they financially dependent? I think its fair to say the high level of immigration in the UK over the last 2 decades was a driving force behind the Leave vote. Restricting social welfare payments to UK citizens would certainly help.

Capt'n Midnight · 27-01-2019 02:05AM

Undividual wrote: »

I take your points about the fisheries/agricultural policies and quotas but as of now those can generally be negotiated. I believe the UK gets 30% of its food imports from the EU. It is extremely unlikely that the EU will cut off its nose to spite its face when dealing with the UK, so much of those agreements will remain intact. The remainder should be replaceable by opening up trade relations with non-EU countries and through increased domestic production over time.

The EU need the UK more than the UK need them ?

At independence 96% of Irish exports used to go to the UK
Exports to the UK only provide 6% of Ireland's GPD.
The UK needs fresh food , we can export grass fed meat/dairy to EU at a premium.

I'm not so sure about the EU army.

We had a referendum over that and the Danes too got stuff in writing. Besides if the UK is a great power, rather than at the US's beck and call what's the issue ?

Were those people from China working or studying? Were they financially dependent? I think its fair to say the high level of immigration in the UK over the last 2 decades was a driving force behind the Leave vote. Restricting social welfare payments to UK citizens would certainly help.

I cba checking, because the UK cba checking either.
Until the UK imposes the existing laws on immigration and foreign trawlers there is no point in getting extra powers.

I do agree though that the Tories have been 'Restricting social welfare payments to UK citizens' just compare the dole on either side of the border.

Undividual · 27-01-2019 02:26AM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The EU need the UK more than the UK need them ?

At independence 96% of Irish exports used to go to the UK
Exports to the UK only provide 6% of Ireland's GPD.
The UK needs fresh food , we can export grass fed meat/dairy to EU at a premium.

I didn't say that the EU need the UK more, just that it would be a politically driven mistake to cease trading with the UK completely.

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

We had a referendum over that and the Danes too got stuff in writing. Besides if the UK is a great power, rather than at the US's beck and call what's the issue ?

Basically because an EU army is a terrifying prospect. When I see the failure of the EU's plan to deal with mass migration, the idea of a military force in those leaders' hands does not inspire confidence. The US for all its faults has not brought war to Europe. Would the EU do as good a job?

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

I cba checking, because the UK cba checking either.
Until the UK imposes the existing laws on immigration and foreign trawlers there is no point in getting extra powers.

Fair enough.

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

I do agree though that the Tories have been 'Restricting social welfare payments to UK citizens' just compare the dole on either side of the border.

I sincerely doubt Ireland will be able to sustain our current dole payment or state pension rates indefinitely. We are an aging population with negative population growth heading towards an economy which will 'hopefully' be propped up by immigration. We may find ourselves in deeper water than the UK in 20-30 years.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 27-01-2019 02:39AM

Buford T Justice wrote: »

England aren't the empire they once were. Nothing more than a bunch of lager swilling curry eating uneducated racist on the sick slobs these days. At least the ones who voted to leave are. Hardly an end to peace in western europe.

That’s the easy way to characterise the people who voted to leave. I worked for a UK government agency a decade ago in a middle England, middle class area and most of the people in my office - mostly well-educated, both Tory and Labour supporters - were not keen on the EU and the UK being in it. I’d easily imagine the majority of that office voted to leave. The outcome was what it was because many more people voted Leave than just the stereotypical lager-drinking, curry-eating slobs.

Undividual · 27-01-2019 02:46AM

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

That’s the easy way to characterise the people who voted to leave. I worked for a UK government agency a decade ago in a middle England, middle class area and most of the people in my office - mostly well-educated, both Tory and Labour supporters - were not keen on the EU and the UK being in it. I’d easily imagine the majority of that office voted to leave. The outcome was what it was because many more people voted Leave than just the stereotypical lager-drinking, curry-eating slobs.

What about the lager drinking, curry drinking slobs? Don't forget about us!

Seriously though, the attack on the working class throughout Brexit was shameful. Peoples' unsubstantiated claims that racism was the only reason to vote Leave should have been as offensive to moderates as actual racism (and should have been treated as such).

dr.fuzzenstein · 27-01-2019 09:17AM

Undividual wrote: »

What about the lager drinking, curry drinking slobs? Don't forget about us!

Seriously though, the attack on the working class throughout Brexit was shameful. Peoples' unsubstantiated claims that racism was the only reason to vote Leave should have been as offensive to moderates as actual racism (and should have been treated as such).

It wasn't just racism that drove the leave vote.
There was a healthy dose of ignorance of how the EU worked, stoked by lies about prawn flavoured crisps and £350 million pounds a week going to the NHS, misguided visions of Britannia ruling the waves and utterly cretinous ideas of some sort of Empire 2.0.
This idea that the entire world will queue outside the doors of the UK to be part of some cloud cuckoo trade deal is Mumpitz to be frank.
The reality will be that the UK will have to renegotiate all her deals and find new ones, cap in hand.
And how do you think it will go when they go door to door saying "erm, would you have any kind of trade deal for us? We're kinda desperate"?
Because everyone knows international trade is a kind and gentle world that totally doesn't brutally exploit any kind of weaknesses...

fash · 27-01-2019 10:40AM

Undividual wrote: »

Basically because an EU army is a terrifying prospect. When I see the failure of the EU's plan to deal with mass migration, the idea of a military force in those leaders' hands does not inspire confidence.

The entire problem with the EU and immigration is that it has no powers in relation to it - it's entirely a member state competence - and some member states are on the front line and others are not- so face different pressures.

biko · 27-01-2019 11:07AM

I can't wait for Brexit to be over and done with so these threads can stop.
OP doesn't even affect Irish people.

namloc1980 · 27-01-2019 11:31AM

biko wrote: »

I can't wait for Brexit to be over and done with so these threads can stop.
OP doesn't even affect Irish people.

Brexit won't be over and done with on the 29th March. A no deal Brexit will have huge repercussions for years to come.

RDM_83 again · 27-01-2019 12:41PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

eternal rights.

Grove's father had a fish factory. And Grove has sold out every chance he got. Half of NI's quota is held by one boat. 1% of Scotland's quota is held by inshore fishermen. Most of the UK quota is held by big , mostly foreign business. And the UK isn't imposing the existing rules. UK fishermen continue to be screwed over.

The foreign owners thing is often trotted out as an example about why the fishermen argument by leave is wrong.
Thing is the Brits did actually try to have measures to correct some of the issues, issue was they got smacked down by the ECJ in a very important case.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_(Factortame_Ltd)_v_Secretary_of_State_for_Transport

Basically talking about foreign people owning the British fishing fleet as an argument against fisheries peoples brexit leanings is counterfactual because that situation exists due to ECJ rulings.

Wanderer78 · 27-01-2019 12:44PM

biko wrote:

I can't wait for Brexit to be over and done with so these threads can stop. OP doesn't even affect Irish people.

You re probably gonna be upset, maybe sit down for this news, we ll be talking about Brexit for years to come, there's not many people in Europe, possibly the world that Brexits having an effect on.

Capt'n Midnight · 27-01-2019 01:06PM

RDM_83 again wrote: »

The foreign owners thing is often trotted out as an example about why the fishermen argument by leave is wrong.
Thing is the Brits did actually try to have measures to correct some of the issues, issue was they got smacked down by the ECJ in a very important case.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_(Factortame_Ltd)_v_Secretary_of_State_for_Transport

Basically talking about foreign people owning the British fishing fleet as an argument against fisheries peoples brexit leanings is counterfactual because that situation exists due to ECJ rulings.

And what of UK registered trawlers landing their catch abroad ?
And what of not banning them when caught breaching their quota ?

Like may things the big problem is the UK is not enforcing existing rules so grabbing more power is just an empty gesture.

Capt'n Midnight · 27-01-2019 01:14PM

namloc1980 wrote: »

Brexit won't be over and done with on the 29th March. A no deal Brexit will have huge repercussions for years to come.

A deal would be nearly as bad. A Withdrawal Agreement just kicks the can two years down the road.

That's all.

It just gives some breathing space to negotiate the real deal with the EU and replace 40 deals EU with 70 countries.

Considering how little has been achieved by the UK in even negotiating its own negotiating position since the referendum was announced it's not going to be enough time, so we'll be back at deal/no deal/extension all over again.

Brexit land

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