Super easy & quick vanilla cake - a Werewolf recipe

Virtanen · 24-01-2019 11:43am

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Virtual, are you here?

Present and accounted for

duffman13 · 24-01-2019 11:44am

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I don’t like this. You would have let the vote go to a possible rand AFTER the event is over?

She asked who I'd vote for if I was around I said QB. As in who I would have voted for at 8pm last night. What don't you like? Asked a legitimate question and I answered

quickbeam · 24-01-2019 11:49am

duffman13 wrote: »

QB and Kolido are my wolf reads.

Why me?

Kolido · 24-01-2019 11:51am

24-01-2019 12:04pm

duffman13 wrote: »

She asked who I'd vote for if I was around I said QB. As in who I would have voted for at 8pm last night. What don't you like? Asked a legitimate question and I answered

Because you have the value of hindsight so testing the rand theory is no longer valid. There were 2 players with no votes, you would have voted for one of them and your suspicions today is both of them.

As I type, I’m wondering why QB didn’t take the chance of a rand. Would it not have given us the same chance of bagging a wolf? Plus, the wolves wouldn’t know how it would go either and if we did get one, could we not have had more to learn from who they had or hadn’t interacted with?

Virtanen · 24-01-2019 12:06pm

If we're all voting for a no-lynch then I'm happy with a speed day

Onto the next lynch so. QB, you've appeared really helpful the last few days, but you did throw up several red flags prior to the lynch last night for me

You posted this, in response to Strawbs' early vote:

quickbeam wrote: »

I think it's to Strawbs' credit too that she's got the first lynch vote in. Anyone at risk of being lynched, and especially a wolf at risk of being lynched, would likely hold off and vote strategically to save themselves.

Which looks like classic pocketing to me. Then, not long after, you post your list of all the potential teams that are in the game. If you'd done it earlier then we might have been able to make a meaningful lynch out of it, but it seems to me like you were doing it to sew confusion for the lynch. Hell, you said that Strawbs was looking like she was about to be lynched, maybe she's your co-wolf and you were trying to protect her

Finally there's the whole flip-flopping act you pulled off before you're vote. Again, sewing confusion

Care to comment?

24-01-2019 12:06pm

Gonna read all Keith’s posts again and Trit’s too.

Virtanen · 24-01-2019 12:08pm

And I don't think it was answered properly (if it was someone might direct me to it) but Kolido, could you give us an explanation of why you voted for Trit? And not just one line, but an actual explanation

24-01-2019 12:09pm

I ain’t no wolf. Had me bits waxed last week.

Virtanen · 24-01-2019 12:10pm

Sowing confusion, not sewing. Unless you're doing embroidery while you type

quickbeam · 24-01-2019 12:19pm

[quote="Virtanen;109228201"
You posted this, in response to Strawbs' early vote:

Which looks like classic pocketing to me. Then, not long after, you post your list of all the potential teams that are in the game. If you'd done it earlier then we might have been able to make a meaningful lynch out of it, but it seems to me like you were doing it to sew confusion for the lynch. Hell, you said that Strawbs was looking like she was about to be lynched, maybe she's your co-wolf and you were trying to protect her

Finally there's the whole flip-flopping act you pulled off before you're vote. Again, sewing confusion

Care to comment?[/quote]

You’re contracting yourself. I’m a wolf pocketing villager-Strawbs or I’m a wolf protecting wolf-Strawbs. Which is it?

I definitely flip-flopped. I can’t deny that, nor would I want to. Put it down to a confused villager wanting not to end up in a lylo today and trying not to get the wrong person lynched.

Turn the question around. Why would a wolf flip-flop so much?

I posted the teams when I did because it’s when I thought of it. If it would have helped us lynch better by having it earlier then that was a shame but I doubt it would have much.

Virtanen · 24-01-2019 12:32pm

quickbeam wrote: »

You’re contracting yourself. I’m a wolf pocketing villager-Strawbs or I’m a wolf protecting wolf-Strawbs. Which is it?

[...]

Turn the question around. Why would a wolf flip-flop so much?

Could be either one, personally I'm leaning towards pocketing. I had Strawbs on my FFA for her questions about the Seer prior to the munch, but since then she hasn't really done much to set off any alarm bells

You, on the other hand, were also on my FFA, albeit further down, but have since set off quite a few alarm bells. You insisted that my theory about Kitten's peek was wrong, because you knew you weren't a wolf. The problem is that we have no way of knowing that

As for why a wolf would flip-flop so much? To cover for why you were taking so long. We didn't get any vote from Duffman, maybe you were biding time and hoping to vote last, that way you could vote for whoever you wanted and effectively create a free munch

Maybe you wanted to see if you're teammate ended up with two votes, that way you could either lynch your co-wolf to gain credit with the village, or make sure the vote ended in a tie and go to a 2nd round

duffman13 · 24-01-2019 12:35pm

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Because you have the value of hindsight so testing the rand theory is no longer valid. There were 2 players with no votes, you would have voted for one of them and your suspicions today is both of them.

As I type, I’m wondering why QB didn’t take the chance of a rand. Would it not have given us the same chance of bagging a wolf? Plus, the wolves wouldn’t know how it would go either and if we did get one, could we not have had more to learn from who they had or hadn’t interacted with?

Rand theory, forget Rand theory, Wolves need two mislynches to win. They got an easy one last night. I'd have voted on who I thought was a wolf which was QB. Last night was easy to force a mislynch for the wolves with everyone voting everywhere. Sit back and wait, lob a vote on whoever you want and mislynch no.1 happens. It's a ballsy move lumping in with the other wolf (I think Kolido) so my thoughts aren't infallible but that's my thought process on it.

QB is ridiculously helpful and full of statistics! Overly helpful IMO

quickbeam · 24-01-2019 12:39pm

duffman13 wrote: »

QB is ridiculously helpful and full of statistics! Overly helpful IMO

That’s me every game, *except* when I’m a wolf as I have leaned that’s what gets people suspicious.

24-01-2019 12:46pm

Our thought we could only afford one mislynch? Get the next one wrong and we’ve lost?

Mollyb60 · 24-01-2019 12:47pm

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I ain’t no wolf. Had me bits waxed last week.

Sorry but this post didn't get the love it deserves. IMO this post wins the internet for today. Well done Strawbs. Gave me a genuine lol moment in the office. People are staring.

:D:D

quickbeam · 24-01-2019 12:49pm

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Our thought we could only afford one mislynch? Get the next one wrong and we’ve lost?

This is true. We’ve had one. Next mislynch loses us the game.

Virtanen · 24-01-2019 12:57pm

If we yolo it try to hit a wolf today, we have a 66% chance of hitting a villager and losing

If we vote no lynch, then we have a 60% chance of doing the same at the next lynch

quickbeam · 24-01-2019 1:00pm

Virtanen wrote: »

If we yolo it try to hit a wolf today, we have a 66% chance of hitting a villager and losing

If we vote no lynch, then we have a 60% chance of doing the same at the next lynch

Read last night. We did the maths. We’ve two lynches to off the wolves. 25% chance if we go no lynch first. 13% chance if we lynch first. Small odds either way but the maths says wait.

It’s counter intuitive and it took a bit to convince me but the figures are there.

Virtanen · 24-01-2019 1:03pm

Oh yeah, I saw that alright, my numbers are just the odds of surviving the next lynch

Kolido · 24-01-2019 1:20pm

Virtanen wrote: »

And I don't think it was answered properly (if it was someone might direct me to it) but Kolido, could you give us an explanation of why you voted for Trit? And not just one line, but an actual explanation

Just seeing this now.

Well it was two fold, a) I found his play being cagey, he was helpful but not posting too much to look like derailing the vil which is how a wolf would play imo. b) he was least on the vil side imo, call it a process of elimination

24-01-2019 1:57pm

I don’t understand why we’re waiting all day when we know we’re voting no lynch. None of us are talking.

quickbeam · 24-01-2019 2:01pm

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I don’t understand why we’re waiting all day when we know we’re voting no lynch. None of us are talking.

I was talking, but on my phone. I'm back on PC now and about to do some ISOing. Agree there's little point in waiting all day if we're not going to use the time constructively. But I'd rather not speed, and use the time

24-01-2019 2:03pm

Get it out of the way. Get the munch done and then we’ve loads to talk about till 9pm

I vote we do it early

Virtanen · 24-01-2019 2:06pm

I'll happily vote early if we can agree on a speed day. I'm with Strawbs, dragging the game on benefits no one

24-01-2019 2:07pm

New list of team possibilities

Kolido & quick-beam
Kolido & Strawberry Milkshake
Kolido & Mollyb60
Kolido & Virtanen
Kolido & duffman13
quickbeam & Strawberry Milkshake
quickbeam & Mollyb60
quickbeam & Virtanen
quickbeam & duffman13
Strawberry Milkshake & Mollyb60
Strawberry Milkshake & Virtanen
Strawberry Milkshake & duffman13
Mollyb60 & Virtanen
Mollyb60 & duffman13
Virtanen & duffman13

24-01-2019 2:07pm

Duff, Molly, Kolido - what say you?

24-01-2019 2:10pm

Oh, and do we have mods around?

24-01-2019 2:14pm

My revised list

Kolido & quick-beam
Kolido & duffman13
quickbeam & Virtanen
quickbeam & duffman13
Virtanen & duffman13

Virtanen · 24-01-2019 2:15pm

Wanna try PMing Kitten?

All we really need is a majority, I say if we get four No Lynch votes in then we should move on

Super easy & quick vanilla cake - a Werewolf recipe

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