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Super easy & quick vanilla cake - a Werewolf recipe

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    #362
    Virtanen
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,288 ✭✭✭Virtanen


    I'm down


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    #363
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    sKeith wrote: »
    no.


    village outnumbers them 2 to 4 tomorrow, it would be suicide to out themselves.

    Just trying to get my head around it.

    Currently 7. 2 wolves, 5 villagers.
    After munch: 6 - 2 wolves, 4 villagers.
    Propose no-lynch: same
    After munch: 5 - 2 wolves, 3 villagers.

    So as a villager there'll be four other people I could vote for and I'll have a 50/50 chance of picking a wolf. But if I vote first and pick one of the other two villagers, all the wolves would have to do is jump on my vote and it'd be:

    Lynch: 4 - 2 wolves, 2 villager = wolf win.

    And even if we did get rid of one of the wolves, it'd then be:

    Lynch: 4 - 1 wolf, 3 villagers
    Then munch: 3 - 1 wolf, 2 villagers

    Now I'm a villager and I've two others to chose from, so another 50/50 shot of choosing correctly. Again, a game of chicken about who would vote first. If one of the villagers votes for another villager the wolf would just have to vote the same to bring it to:

    Lynch: 2 - 1 wolf, 1 villager = wolf win again.

    But two rounds of 50/50 choices is really only a 25% choice which is less than the 33.3% choice we'd have if we didn't go no-lynch to start with.


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    #364
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Makes most sense.


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    #365
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    quickbeam wrote: »
    Just trying to get my head around it.

    Currently 7. 2 wolves, 5 villagers.
    After munch: 6 - 2 wolves, 4 villagers.
    Propose no-lynch: same
    After munch: 5 - 2 wolves, 3 villagers.

    So as a villager there'll be four other people I could vote for and I'll have a 50/50 chance of picking a wolf. But if I vote first and pick one of the other two villagers, all the wolves would have to do is jump on my vote and it'd be:

    Lynch: 4 - 2 wolves, 2 villager = wolf win.

    And even if we did get rid of one of the wolves, it'd then be:

    Lynch: 4 - 1 wolf, 3 villagers
    Then munch: 3 - 1 wolf, 2 villagers

    Now I'm a villager and I've two others to chose from, so another 50/50 shot of choosing correctly. Again, a game of chicken about who would vote first. If one of the villagers votes for another villager the wolf would just have to vote the same to bring it to:

    Lynch: 2 - 1 wolf, 1 villager = wolf win again.

    But two rounds of 50/50 choices is really only a 25% choice which is less than the 33.3% choice we'd have if we didn't go no-lynch to start with.


    its 2 rounds either way, you have to lynch both wolves. with nolynch, we get rid of another villager for free.


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    #366
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    The game ending on a munch is not helpful to us!


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    #367
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    2/6 * 1/4 = 2/24
    2/5 * 1/3 = 2/15
    i think thats right.


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    #368
    duffman13
    Registered Users Posts: 8,946 ✭✭✭duffman13


    I'm sorry guys, had an absolute shocker of a day! Apologies to all for the poor form.


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    #369
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    I'm not agreeing to this unless I can understand it.

    Alternative to no-lynch, actually lynch:

    Currently 7. 2 wolves, 5 villagers.
    After munch: 6 - 2 wolves, 4 villagers.

    Now I'm a villager, and I've 5 players to choose from two of which are wolves. That's a 40% chance of picking a wolf, which leaves us with:

    Lynch wolf: 5 - 1 wolf, 4 villagers
    After munch: 4 - 1 wolf, 3 villagers

    Now, I'm a villager and I've three players to chose from, one of which is a wolf. That's a 33% chance of picking correctly.

    So, still two rounds, like sK said, but a 13.33% chance (1/3rd of 40%)? compared with a 25% by voting no-lynch?

    So less chance overall, but no playing chicken with seeing who votes first like there would in the first scenario.

    Is that about the sum of it?


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    #370
    duffman13
    Registered Users Posts: 8,946 ✭✭✭duffman13


    So we talking no lynch tomorrow? Really, wolves get next two kills and we play on the toss of a coin basically?

    Probably better odds than we currently have


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    #371
    duffman13
    Registered Users Posts: 8,946 ✭✭✭duffman13


    QB and Kolido on Trit is the most stand out thing in effectively a dead heat vote.

    Virts and sKeith vote so close on the vote with same content. Surely sKeith knew that would come across wolfy


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    #372
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    Who would you have voted for Duffman?


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    #373
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    quickbeam wrote: »
    I'm not agreeing to this unless I can understand it.

    Alternative to no-lynch, actually lynch:

    Currently 7. 2 wolves, 5 villagers.
    After munch: 6 - 2 wolves, 4 villagers.

    Now I'm a villager, and I've 5 players to choose from two of which are wolves. That's a 40% chance of picking a wolf, which leaves us with:

    Lynch wolf: 5 - 1 wolf, 4 villagers
    After munch: 4 - 1 wolf, 3 villagers

    Now, I'm a villager and I've three players to chose from, one of which is a wolf. That's a 33% chance of picking correctly.

    So, still two rounds, like sK said, but a 13.33% chance (1/3rd of 40%)? compared with a 25% by voting no-lynch?

    So less chance overall, but no playing chicken with seeing who votes first like there would in the first scenario.

    Is that about the sum of it?


    yes, you were comparing 33% to 25% first time,
    when to win it 13.33% vs 25%, as you picked up on 2nd reading.


    effectively, the wolves are removing a possible mislynch for us.


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    #374
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    sKeith wrote: »
    yes, you were comparing 33% to 25% first time,
    when to win it 13.33% vs 25%, as you picked up on 2nd reading.


    effectively, the wolves are removing a possible mislynch for us.

    Okay, I'm coming around. The percentages indicate no-lynch is the better way to go.

    But what about the game of chicken? In the no-lynch scenario, wolves will just hang back and vote how a villager votes (so long as it's not for them). I don't think they can do that if we go for the lynch option. Does the extra percentage chance compensate for the wolves being able to out-vote the villagers?


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    #375
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    quickbeam wrote: »
    Okay, I'm coming around. The percentages indicate no-lynch is the better way to go.

    But what about the game of chicken? In the no-lynch scenario, wolves will just hang back and vote how a villager votes (so long as it's not for them). I don't think they can do that if we go for the lynch option. Does the extra percentage chance compensate for the wolves being able to out-vote the villagers?


    the village needs consensus before actual voting. one wrong vote and its game over. majority is consensus, talk about who u are voting before ever making a real vote.

    suspect anybody who throws a vote in without discussing it first.


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    #376
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    Okay, I think I'm on board. And your suggestion certainly puts you firmly back in the villager pot for me.


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    #377
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    why'd u have me out of the villager pot, can u point to specifics?


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    #378
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    Niggles really. Perhaps unreasonably based on your grilling of me today.
    quickbeam wrote: »
    Well, here's another turn towards 180 for everyone to bash my head in over, but I'm starting to wonder that myself.

    Though sometimes it's hard to distance "being accused" and "being a wolf" from each other, so trying not to hold against him his accusations against me and remain unbiased.


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    #379
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    quickbeam wrote: »
    sKeith & Tritium
    Kolido & Mollyb60
    Kolido & Virtanen
    Kolido & duffman13
    Tritium & duffman13
    Strawberry Milkshake & Mollyb60


    based on your own analyis, you had only team i was on as with trit,
    therefore, when trit flipped, i should already have been good in your mind.


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    #380
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    Kitten K - dead seer
    Tritium - dead nrv
    sKeith - i'm good

    Kolido - leaning good
    Quickbeam - leaning wolf
    Strawberry Milkshake - leaning wolf
    Mollyb60 - leaning good
    Virtanen - leaning good
    Duff 'barred' man - could be wolf with either of qb or strawberry milkshake



    okay, its mylo, mislynch and lose, what are the disadvantages of nolynch, for those who dont question.

    2 of those that are in my leaning good or leaning good category are dead and won't be making decisions any longer.

    duff will not be munched, so for village win he has to step up or lose this for village.

    as for duffmans query,
    duffman13 wrote: »
    Surely sKeith knew that would come across wolfy



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    #381
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    correction:
    2 of those that are in my good or leaning good category are dead and won't be making decisions any longer.


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    #382
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    another thing i must mention, grr, qb and shake are the high posters, so, 2 high posting wolves are not as likely as sort by post count.

    quickbeam |101
    Strawberry Milkshake| 63
    sKeith |57
    Mollyb60 |43
    Virtanen| 26
    Kolido |21
    duffman13| 6


    sort by post count is a simpler way of finding wolces, and that points towards virtanen , kolido and duffman.

    as said already, duffman needs to step up his game, 6 posting is not helping the village at all.


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    #383
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    So, for me, at this moment in time, letting the wolves remove two variables, instead of me having 5 suspects, might be a better way to go, but maybe you have stronger opinions on the bunch than i do, i think removing a few unknown variables is better.
    like if virtanen or kolido were removed from the roster, i think i'd have a better idea of who is left.

    think the same way tomorrow.

    dont wake up at 10 and vote nolynch, wait until 8 at least before voting n whatever you decide, and only do so if you think its the best move with the variables still in play.


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    #384
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    sKeith wrote: »
    Kitten K - dead seer
    Tritium - dead nrv
    sKeith - i'm good

    Kolido - leaning good
    Quickbeam - leaning wolf
    Strawberry Milkshake - leaning wolf
    Mollyb60 - leaning good
    Virtanen - leaning good
    Duff 'barred' man - could be wolf with either of qb or strawberry milkshake



    okay, its mylo, mislynch and lose, what are the disadvantages of nolynch, for those who dont question.

    2 of those that are in my leaning good or leaning good category are dead and won't be making decisions any longer.

    duff will not be munched, so for village win he has to step up or lose this for village.

    Why am I leaning wolf to you?


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    #385
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    sKeith wrote: »
    based on your own analyis, you had only team i was on as with trit,
    therefore, when trit flipped, i should already have been good in your mind.

    True. But my analysis isn’t the most robust of methods (though it is a guide). I eliminated teams where there was an accusation between the two players or any conversation that I didn’t think wolves would have. But clever wolves might just throw in accusations against each other so I might have easily eliminated a team I shouldn’t have.


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    #386
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    sKeith wrote: »
    kolido - virtanen

    who i am most suspicious at.


    those two just sitting back and letting village rip eack other apart and chuckle.

    Kolido / Virtanen, What you think of my analysis?
    sKeith wrote: »
    Kolido - leaning good
    Virtanen - leaning good

    Also, why the change? Especially after you came at me yesterday for 180ing?


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    #387
    quickbeam
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 16,287 Mod ✭✭✭✭quickbeam


    quickbeam wrote: »
    Why am I leaning wolf to you?

    And actually why Strawbs too? You’re wrong about me but that’s not to say you’re wrong about both of us so be interesting to hear what you have on her too.


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    #388
    Kolido
    Registered Users Posts: 13,360 ✭✭✭✭Kolido


    quickbeam wrote: »
    Also, why the change? Especially after you came at me yesterday for 180ing?

    Morning all, was about to ask the same thing, Sk seems to have done a 180 on me.

    The nolynch idea we have to go with tonight, for suggesting that alone, Sk is as village as I can see right now.


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    #389
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Morning all

    I don’t think I’ll be doing long notes today. Bit of a busy one.


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    #390
    Baggly
    Registered Users Posts: 35,024 ✭✭✭✭Baggly


    Mod note

    Apologies guys I thought this week was plain sailing in terms of me being around. To make sure the game isn't impacted, Kitten K is going to join me as comod. Her word is now law :)


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    #391
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    I for one welcome our new overlord

    :D


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