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Millionaire, should he switch?

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2

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    #32
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users Posts: 26,078 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    mikeymouse wrote: »
    Ok,
    supposing it's a Monty Hall with 4 doors,
    the only difference is, instead of Monty knowing the contestants choice, it is a computer (which doesn't know his choice) will randomly open two losing doors, regardless of which door the contestant chooses
    But that's a crucial difference. Becuause the initial choice you make in Monty Hall influences what the computer will do afterwards, what the computer actually does give you different information than it would if the computer acted randomly.


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    #33
    mikeymouse
    Closed Accounts Posts: 568 ✭✭✭mikeymouse


    Roger Hassenforder wrote: »
    What was the fecking question?
    3 May. Bistritz. — Left Munich at 8.35 p.m.
    are these the opening words of ;
    A Tinker tailor soldier spy, or
    B Dracula


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    #34
    facehugger99
    Registered Users Posts: 7,225 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    ardinn wrote: »
    It isnt -
    It is

    ardinn wrote: »
    it isnt even monty hall - but the same principles apply -

    They don't.

    ardinn wrote: »
    forget the random possibilities and focus on what actually happened and its a 25/75 split!

    It's not - it's 50:50


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    #35
    mikeymouse
    Closed Accounts Posts: 568 ✭✭✭mikeymouse


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    But that's a crucial difference. Becuause the initial choice you make in Monty Hall influences what the computer will do afterwards, what the computer actually does give you different information than it would if the computer acted randomly.
    I did say :
    It's not quite Monty Hall , but what are his chances now were he to switch?


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    #36
    Ush1
    Registered Users Posts: 11,461 ✭✭✭✭Ush1


    mikeymouse wrote: »
    I did say :
    It's not quite Monty Hall , but what are his chances now were he to switch?

    50/50.


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    #37
    ardinn
    Registered Users Posts: 4,246 ✭✭✭ardinn


    facehugger99 wrote: »
    It is



    They don't.


    It's not

    it isnt

    they do

    it is

    (great game by the way!)
    images.jpg
    http://slaneyfishing.com




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    #38
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,394 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    mikeymouse wrote: »
    I did say :
    It's not quite Monty Hall , but what are his chances now were he to switch?

    Except its not "not quite Monty Hall", it just isn't Monty Hall. The MH problem essentially relies on conditional probability, there is no condition in this scenario.

    In MH the elimination of one door provides more information on your initial selection. In this case the elimination of two choice provides no new information on your initial selection (largely because you haven't made an initial selection).


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    #39
    abff
    Registered Users Posts: 5,717 ✭✭✭abff


    If you are faced with 4 choices and have absolutely no idea which is the correct answer, then using 50:50 increases your chances of guessing the correct answer from 1 in 4 to 1 in 2.

    However, if you are partially sure of the answer, then it can improve your chances to a lot more than 50%. For example, take a situation where you know for certain that D is incorrect, but have no idea which of the other three is the correct answer. If 50:50 eliminates D, your chances of guessing the correct answer are improved from 1 in 3 to 1 in 2. However, if D remains as one of the options, your odds have now improved to 100%.


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    #40
    3DataModem
    Registered Users Posts: 3,951 ✭✭✭3DataModem


    If you think that the 50/50 options are determined based on what the player (or audience / phone-a-friend) says or indicates beforehand, you are mistaken.

    Monty Hall doesn't apply here.


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    #41
    abff
    Registered Users Posts: 5,717 ✭✭✭abff


    I didn't see the program. Did the contestant take the £64k or did he gamble and lose half his money?

    Theoretically, he would be correct to go on even if only 50% confident of his answer. A correct guess would gain £61k, with the possibility of further winnings if he happens to know the answer to the £250k question.

    But it's a lot of money to risk losing. I wonder how many people would take the gamble in that situation?


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    #42
    3DataModem
    Registered Users Posts: 3,951 ✭✭✭3DataModem


    abff wrote: »
    Theoretically, he would be correct to go on even if only 50% confident of his answer.

    That is only the case if you ignore diminishing marginal utility. An extra 100k does not make you twice as happy as an extra 50k, so flipping a coin between 100k and zero is not the same as getting 50k.


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    #43
    Grayson
    Registered Users Posts: 16,126 ✭✭✭✭Grayson


    Pac1Man wrote: »
    Variable change. Switching to B would increase his odds, my only worry being that the 50/50 removal process is not random and someone choose to allow the 'A' to remain based on his initial thoughts.

    There's also the fact that his original choice might not be completly random. He might be making a decision based on something he subconsciously knows. Whereas the monty hall problem is completely random, this is tainted by outside influences.


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    #44
    orourkeda1977
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,628 ✭✭✭orourkeda1977


    I knew the answer.

    Wouldnt that render this discussion meaningess.

    If he had known the damn answer.


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    #45
    demfad
    Registered Users Posts: 3,182 ✭✭✭demfad


    Here's one from an old game show:

    Prize is a car, losing prizes are goats.

    3 boxes: Behind one is a car. The others 2 are goats.

    Contestant picks a box. The compere opens one of the other boxes to reveal a goat. That leaves two boxes. The car behind one, a goat behind another. The compere asks the contestant if he should switch his choice?

    Should he?


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    #46
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,167 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    demfad wrote: »
    Here's one from an old game show:

    Prize is a car, losing prizes are goats.

    3 boxes: Behind one is a car. The others 2 are goats.

    Contestant picks a box. The compere opens one of the other boxes to reveal a goat. That leaves two boxes. The car behind one, a goat behind another. The compere asks the contestant if he should switch his choice?

    Should he?


    that is the monty hall problem that other people have already mentioned. the contestant should always switch.


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    #47
    kippy
    Registered Users Posts: 18,401 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    demfad wrote: »
    Here's one from an old game show:

    Prize is a car, losing prizes are goats.

    3 boxes: Behind one is a car. The others 2 are goats.

    Contestant picks a box. The compere opens one of the other boxes to reveal a goat. That leaves two boxes. The car behind one, a goat behind another. The compere asks the contestant if he should switch his choice?

    Should he?
    No.


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    #48
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,167 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    kippy wrote: »
    No.


    they should always switch. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem


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    #49
    ardinn
    Registered Users Posts: 4,246 ✭✭✭ardinn


    kippy wrote: »
    No.

    tenor.gif?itemid=5992234
    images.jpg
    http://slaneyfishing.com




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    #50
    kippy
    Registered Users Posts: 18,401 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    I'd stick with my first option - personal preference.


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    #51
    pleas advice
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,492 ✭✭✭pleas advice


    Its 50/50, phone a friend, ask the audience


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    #52
    facehugger99
    Registered Users Posts: 7,225 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    kippy wrote: »
    I'd stick with my first option - personal preference.

    Why, do you really like goats?


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    #53
    kippy
    Registered Users Posts: 18,401 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    facehugger99 wrote: »
    Why, do you really like goats?

    Am I guaranteed a car swapping?


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    #54
    facehugger99
    Registered Users Posts: 7,225 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    kippy wrote: »
    Am I guaranteed a car swapping?

    Nope, just double the chance of winning.


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    #55
    kippy
    Registered Users Posts: 18,401 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    facehugger99 wrote: »
    Nope, just double the chance of winning.

    So you're saying I have a chance of winning?


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    #56
    28064212
    Registered Users Posts: 10,481 ✭✭✭✭28064212


    kippy wrote: »
    So you're saying I have a chance of winning?
    So you're saying if there were 100 doors to start, the host opened 98 of them after you made your choice, you wouldn't switch because you still have a 1% chance of winning?

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    #57
    kippy
    Registered Users Posts: 18,401 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    28064212 wrote: »
    So you're saying if there were 100 doors to start, the host opened 98 of them after you made your choice, you wouldn't switch because you still have a 1% chance of winning?

    Ah yeah, I'd keep my door selection. In for a penny in for a pound.


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    #58
    Riskymove
    Registered Users Posts: 10,885 ✭✭✭✭Riskymove


    ohnonotgmail wrote: »
    that is the monty hall problem that other people have already mentioned. the contestant should always switch.

    TBH, while I understand the concept I'd be happy to stick with my random selection of 1 from 3 and risk losing

    It will kill me if I had chosen the car and then handed it back based on the idea that I had improved odds


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    #59
    Riskymove
    Registered Users Posts: 10,885 ✭✭✭✭Riskymove


    28064212 wrote: »
    So you're saying if there were 100 doors to start, the host opened 98 of them after you made your choice, you wouldn't switch because you still have a 1% chance of winning?

    so you are saying.... you are not a Jim Carrey fan!


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    #60
    facehugger99
    Registered Users Posts: 7,225 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    Riskymove wrote: »
    TBH, while I understand the concept I'd be happy to stick with my random selection of 1 from 3 and risk losing

    It will kill me if I had chosen the car and then handed it back based on the idea that I had improved odds

    That's completely illogical.

    Would you not be more disappointed if you didn't switch and lost despite knowing the odds were better?


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    #61
    Riskymove
    Registered Users Posts: 10,885 ✭✭✭✭Riskymove


    facehugger99 wrote: »
    That's completely illogical.

    Would you not be more disappointed if you didn't switch and lost despite knowing the odds were better?

    er...no I just said that

    Are you saying you'd be happier to have given back a car


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