Brexit Discussion Thread VI

breatheme wrote: »

The EU's measures will probably embolden the hardline Brexiteers/ERG/etc.

I think the idea is more to take the wind out of May's No Deal bluff. She announces that "Right! This is it! We are going to Activate our No Deal plans!" while waving a napkin Raab scribbled on earlier.



And the EU pulls out a thick folder of detailed plans and says "Hey, so are we."


May is mostly bluffing No Deal to scare MPs, but if it were to convince the EU to drop the backstop, so much the better. But the EU is better prepared, and they are proving it.

Laois_Man wrote: »

Why do I keep seeing there's no time for an election? A campaign only has to be 25 days long!

I don't see what the point of an election is. Labour are not going to withdraw A50, they want to negotiate a different Unicorns deal. The EU is just going to say nope and they crash out anyway.


And the only point of a referendum is to allow people to vote Remain. If anyone in Westminster was so inclined, they could withdraw A50 themselves without a referendum, so why is the EU supposed to be impressed with a referendum? You want to stay, just stay!

10000maniacs wrote: »

No you would be wrong on that. Channel 4 interviewed Nissan workers in Sunderland a few months back and a lot of the assembly workers were clearly on the side of Brexit.
That's the scary thing about Brexit, it's a self harm cult and for a lot of people it trumps putting bread on the table.

Nissan is a classic Brexit example of vulnerability. They’re building generic Japanese cars that can be built anywhere for 80% export to the EU. I don’t think you can rationalize with this level of stupidity and even when the cold hard reality of tariffs and JIT disruption are spelled out they still seem to want it even more.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Wasn't it Nissan that got the special deal from TM soon after she took office?

Nobody has ever heard the details of that deal or indeed how much it is going to cost.

You would then have to wonder how many other companies also went looking for guarantees/deals when the news about Nissan emerged, you can bet that at least the other car companies did and would explain why they have been reluctant to take any meaningful action in terms of moving etc since the ref.

You would then have to consider the likelihood that she has probably guaranteed to make up any downside, economically, to NI.

We already have, from Gove I think, a guarantee that farmers will be paid the previous EU monies from the UK.

Gove said that the uK government would take over payments. He did not say that payments then would match payments now.

I think once Theresa does go (as she has said) she will be used as the fall guy for everything. Promises will be reneged on, payments will be reduced and the easy thing for what ever PM is in charge at that point is to say that "Such promises should clearly never have been made and it is obvious that in fact, they were more akin to a bribe as the then PM tried to get support for her deal".

She would be best turning off her TV and radio for ten years after she steps out because she is going to be blamed for everything.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think the idea is more to take the wind out of May's No Deal bluff. She announces that "Right! This is it! We are going to Activate our No Deal plans!" while waving a napkin Raab scribbled on earlier.

And the EU pulls out a thick folder of detailed plans and says "Hey, so are we."

May is mostly bluffing No Deal to scare MPs, but if it were to convince the EU to drop the backstop, so much the better. But the EU is better prepared, and they are proving it.

Agreed. I think the timing of the publication of these (latest) plans is not accidental. The EU was expecting the meaningful vote to take place last week, for it to be defeated and for TM to turn up in Brussels doing an Oliver Twist impression and asking for "More!" (she's obviously doesn't realise that she's acting in the same a pantomime as JC)

That question to TM - "what do you want us to give you?" - was almost certainly asked in the full knowledge that she had no answer; and only intended to confirm the EU's decision to flick the next switch in the no-deal activation check-list. It's probably an unexpected bonus for the EU that Brexiteers are so wedded to their ideology that they see this as the EU caving in, as it prevents TM from causing more chaos over Christmas.

Apparently she's going to spend the next two weeks talking to the individual EU27 members to "get support" for new language about the backstop (didn't she try that already this year? ) before the next five-day debate and meaningful vote in January. But now that the Brexiteers think the EU will "cave in" they'll be emboldened to press for a no-deal exit, so the result in January will be exactly the same as it would have been last week. Accordingly, the EU will be yet another month ahead of the UK in implementing their no-deal plans.

I can't imagen what new language could help her get any backstop through, klingon maybe.
Fact is that any backstop will cause ructions for her, the time limited unicorn can't happen and she knows it. More can kicking to avoid dealing with the immovable obstacles in her way.

she is now playing her last card, to blow herself up and bring a few of us (ireland) with her.
on the face of it its a ludicrous unbelievable bluff, but then the utter dis-functionality of her own parliament and cabinet and body politic in general lend it an air of plausibility.


Ireland and the eu need to hold there nerve, at the end of the day the commons will not allow a no deal brexit. it could in theory happen by accident but in reality it wont.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't see what the point of an election is. Labour are not going to withdraw A50, they want to negotiate a different Unicorns deal. The EU is just going to say nope and they crash out anyway.


And the only point of a referendum is to allow people to vote Remain. If anyone in Westminster was so inclined, they could withdraw A50 themselves without a referendum, so why is the EU supposed to be impressed with a referendum? You want to stay, just stay!

breatheme wrote: »

If they call for one tomorrow then I'll eat my words but I don't see either happening because the ERG will still continue to back the government to avoid its collapse and May has taken the cowardly position of delaying the vote on her deal as late as possible. If there's a GE/2ndRef it'll probably be called in February.

I know there's not going to be an election - I was contesting the point that there isn't time for one regardless, which is not true.

I wouldn't rule out that possibility of a referendum though. That and a no-deal Brexit are the only 2 things that can happen realistically and the second referendum is definitely more palatable option between the two for the vast majority. Every and any argument I have heard against having one is frankly bull****!

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road_high wrote: »

Nissan is a classic Brexit example of vulnerability. They’re building generic Japanese cars that can be built anywhere for 80% export to the EU. I don’t think you can rationalize with this level of stupidity and even when the cold hard reality of tariffs and JIT disruption are spelled out they still seem to want it even more.

Brexit is very similar to the cult of WW 1 but without the weapons.
Franz Ferdinand shot.
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia.
Germany declares war on France.
Germany invades Belgium.
Britain declares war on Germany.
Millions of young Brits sign up to kill Germans and are slaughtered.
But its all good and remembered with poppies.

Far-right 'yellow vest' Brexiteers chase Anna Soubry shouting 'traitor' and 'Hitler'

Far-right 'yellow vest' group heckling politicians and journalists, after blocking London bridges

Reminds one of this delightful image.

J Mysterio wrote: »

Far-right 'yellow vest' Brexiteers chase Anna Soubry shouting 'traitor' and 'Hitler'

Far-right 'yellow vest' group heckling politicians and journalists, after blocking London bridges

The UK police need to take a firm hand with these groups, dissipate these protests before they get out of hand.

They're not just "angry" or "disillusioned". They're dangerous psychopaths.

tuxy wrote: »

You think the EU will just grant an extension to article 50 because Mays deal is voted down?

I think the EU will be pragmatic and is an extension is asked for, it means that the possibility of staying in exists, and therefor the EU would be willing to see what happens.

As Serfboard dais, I reckon it would be pretty tightly time limited.

But what the latest No Deal preparations show is that the EU is willing to bend in order to protect itself, it that happens to help out TM or indeed the Uk then even better.

THe upcoming elections place a major spanner in the works. The EU will want to know exactly what seats are available and to whom. So they really need to know well before May if the UK intend to take up the current allocation or not.

So my guess would be an extension would need to be requested in January, but the EU will demand that a ref/decision is taken prior to end of March.

Leroy42 wrote: »

THe upcoming elections place a major spanner in the works. The EU will want to know exactly what seats are available and to whom. So they really need to know well before May if the UK intend to take up the current allocation or not.

So my guess would be an extension would need to be requested in January, but the EU will demand that a ref/decision is taken prior to end of March.

I think the solution to that is fairly logical.

Nominations for the EP have to be in by a certain date presumably.

The only way British nominations should be allowed is if they have decided to Remain (by whatever mechanism) by nomination date.

Failure to decide to Remain by nomination date, means you miss out on the elections.

Then, if at some later stage you decide to Remain, the process is the same as when another country joins mid-term:

When a nation joins mid-term, a by-election will be held to elect their representatives.

This has happened six times, most recently when Croatia joined in 2013.

So the process should be straightforward enough as far as I can see.

Ian Dunt is putting the No Deal preparations of the EU in context:

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/12/20/eu-no-deal-plans-our-childish-outburst-has-put-us-at-their-m

Looking at that there is no reason for the brexiteers to have a jolly good christmas. The EU is looking for itself and it’s members. The advantages for the UK are just a side effect. It will not prevent the chaos at Dover or other ports and all duties and custom procedures will take immediate effect.

As there is no chance for a second referendum before end of March and no chance of an election till then as well there are only three possibilities on the table.

Mays deal, revoking Article50 or No Deal Brexit.

As others have pointed out there might be a chance for a second referendum
and may be an election if the EU is willing to prolong the time limit shortly beyond March 2019. May be with the condition that the UK can’t take part within the upcoming elections for the EU parlament? If that is technically possible at all.

If May get her deal through HoC in January the backstop should be safe. Should the worst case happen i’m quite sure the the UK will fold within a few weeks and one of the first things the EU will ask for will be an absolute safe back stop before anything else will be on the table.

Of course i could be completely wrong.;)