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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Zubeneschamali

breatheme wrote: »

The EU's measures will probably embolden the hardline Brexiteers/ERG/etc.

I think the idea is more to take the wind out of May's No Deal bluff. She announces that "Right! This is it! We are going to Activate our No Deal plans!" while waving a napkin Raab scribbled on earlier.

And the EU pulls out a thick folder of detailed plans and says "Hey, so are we."

May is mostly bluffing No Deal to scare MPs, but if it were to convince the EU to drop the backstop, so much the better. But the EU is better prepared, and they are proving it.

Laois_Man

breatheme wrote: »

There's no time for a people's vote or a general election.

Why do I keep seeing there's no time for an election? A campaign only has to be 25 days long!

There's no reason why a referendum campaign has to be any longer than that! They've already been debating it for about 4-years!

Zubeneschamali

Laois_Man wrote: »

Why do I keep seeing there's no time for an election? A campaign only has to be 25 days long!

I don't see what the point of an election is. Labour are not going to withdraw A50, they want to negotiate a different Unicorns deal. The EU is just going to say nope and they crash out anyway.

And the only point of a referendum is to allow people to vote Remain. If anyone in Westminster was so inclined, they could withdraw A50 themselves without a referendum, so why is the EU supposed to be impressed with a referendum? You want to stay, just stay!

ambro25

mickoneill31 wrote: »

The second part is probably a good analogy. If you stop paying your mortgage and go for a new loan, what happens?

If you stop paying your mortgage is the final outcome ever good?

I won't bother with the first part. Posted by somebody who hasn't read any of this thread (or doesn't understand it).

I'd argue that even the second part of the analogy is rubbish: by reference to Article 50, the tenant in arrears is contractually auto-evicting themselves in 99 days regardless.

The EU commission measures are the time left to the tenant for squatting post-eviction date, before the locksmith comes round to change the locks.

road_high

10000maniacs wrote: »

No you would be wrong on that. Channel 4 interviewed Nissan workers in Sunderland a few months back and a lot of the assembly workers were clearly on the side of Brexit.
That's the scary thing about Brexit, it's a self harm cult and for a lot of people it trumps putting bread on the table.

Nissan is a classic Brexit example of vulnerability. They’re building generic Japanese cars that can be built anywhere for 80% export to the EU. I don’t think you can rationalize with this level of stupidity and even when the cold hard reality of tariffs and JIT disruption are spelled out they still seem to want it even more.

Leroy42

Wasn't it Nissan that got the special deal from TM soon after she took office?

Nobody has ever heard the details of that deal or indeed how much it is going to cost.

You would then have to wonder how many other companies also went looking for guarantees/deals when the news about Nissan emerged, you can bet that at least the other car companies did and would explain why they have been reluctant to take any meaningful action in terms of moving etc since the ref.

You would then have to consider the likelihood that she has probably guaranteed to make up any downside, economically, to NI.

We already have, from Gove I think, a guarantee that farmers will be paid the previous EU monies from the UK.

Tell me how

Leroy42 wrote: »

Wasn't it Nissan that got the special deal from TM soon after she took office?

Nobody has ever heard the details of that deal or indeed how much it is going to cost.

You would then have to wonder how many other companies also went looking for guarantees/deals when the news about Nissan emerged, you can bet that at least the other car companies did and would explain why they have been reluctant to take any meaningful action in terms of moving etc since the ref.

You would then have to consider the likelihood that she has probably guaranteed to make up any downside, economically, to NI.

We already have, from Gove I think, a guarantee that farmers will be paid the previous EU monies from the UK.

Gove said that the uK government would take over payments. He did not say that payments then would match payments now.

I think once Theresa does go (as she has said) she will be used as the fall guy for everything. Promises will be reneged on, payments will be reduced and the easy thing for what ever PM is in charge at that point is to say that "Such promises should clearly never have been made and it is obvious that in fact, they were more akin to a bribe as the then PM tried to get support for her deal".

She would be best turning off her TV and radio for ten years after she steps out because she is going to be blamed for everything.

breatheme

Laois_Man wrote: »

Why do I keep seeing there's no time for an election? A campaign only has to be 25 days long!

There's no reason why a referendum campaign has to be any longer than that! They've already been debating it for about 4-years!

If they call for one tomorrow then I'll eat my words but I don't see either happening because the ERG will still continue to back the government to avoid its collapse and May has taken the cowardly position of delaying the vote on her deal as late as possible. If there's a GE/2ndRef it'll probably be called in February.

CelticRambler

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think the idea is more to take the wind out of May's No Deal bluff. She announces that "Right! This is it! We are going to Activate our No Deal plans!" while waving a napkin Raab scribbled on earlier.

And the EU pulls out a thick folder of detailed plans and says "Hey, so are we."

May is mostly bluffing No Deal to scare MPs, but if it were to convince the EU to drop the backstop, so much the better. But the EU is better prepared, and they are proving it.

Agreed. I think the timing of the publication of these (latest) plans is not accidental. The EU was expecting the meaningful vote to take place last week, for it to be defeated and for TM to turn up in Brussels doing an Oliver Twist impression and asking for "More!" (she's obviously doesn't realise that she's acting in the same a pantomime as JC)

That question to TM - "what do you want us to give you?" - was almost certainly asked in the full knowledge that she had no answer; and only intended to confirm the EU's decision to flick the next switch in the no-deal activation check-list. It's probably an unexpected bonus for the EU that Brexiteers are so wedded to their ideology that they see this as the EU caving in, as it prevents TM from causing more chaos over Christmas.

Apparently she's going to spend the next two weeks talking to the individual EU27 members to "get support" for new language about the backstop (didn't she try that already this year? ) before the next five-day debate and meaningful vote in January. But now that the Brexiteers think the EU will "cave in" they'll be emboldened to press for a no-deal exit, so the result in January will be exactly the same as it would have been last week. Accordingly, the EU will be yet another month ahead of the UK in implementing their no-deal plans.

LeinsterDub

CelticRambler wrote: »

.
Apparently she's going to spend the next two weeks talking to the individual EU27 members to "get support" for new language about the backstop

They still don't seen to have grasped there is only one member state they need to get to support new language about the backstop. No one will support a position we don't support

megatron989

I can't imagen what new language could help her get any backstop through, klingon maybe.
Fact is that any backstop will cause ructions for her, the time limited unicorn can't happen and she knows it. More can kicking to avoid dealing with the immovable obstacles in her way.

Professor Moriarty

LeinsterDub wrote: »

They still don't seen to have grasped there is only one member state they need to get to support new language about the backstop. No one will support a position we don't support

It's an existential matter for the EU. The EU cannot be seen to negotiate member to member on this. If that were to happen, what is the point of the EU?

farmchoice

she is now playing her last card, to blow herself up and bring a few of us (ireland) with her.
on the face of it its a ludicrous unbelievable bluff, but then the utter dis-functionality of her own parliament and cabinet and body politic in general lend it an air of plausibility.

Ireland and the eu need to hold there nerve, at the end of the day the commons will not allow a no deal brexit. it could in theory happen by accident but in reality it wont.

J Mysterio

lawred2 wrote: »

yeah but I wonder was that a case of selective reporting... a case of "look at these lads whose livelihoods are dependent on EU membership still wanting to leave" - British lionheart types you know.. pride of Britain and all that

or else a case of pointing out the prize turkeys voting for their own Christmas

might have left out all those chaps who had the sense not to vote for the chopping block as there was no story in that

Sunderland voted Leave by 61%, including many in car manafacturing. Its not only those who work in the factories, but all those whose businesses benefit from it. Turkeys, Christmas.

Laois_Man

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't see what the point of an election is. Labour are not going to withdraw A50, they want to negotiate a different Unicorns deal. The EU is just going to say nope and they crash out anyway.

And the only point of a referendum is to allow people to vote Remain. If anyone in Westminster was so inclined, they could withdraw A50 themselves without a referendum, so why is the EU supposed to be impressed with a referendum? You want to stay, just stay!

breatheme wrote: »

If they call for one tomorrow then I'll eat my words but I don't see either happening because the ERG will still continue to back the government to avoid its collapse and May has taken the cowardly position of delaying the vote on her deal as late as possible. If there's a GE/2ndRef it'll probably be called in February.

I know there's not going to be an election - I was contesting the point that there isn't time for one regardless, which is not true.

I wouldn't rule out that possibility of a referendum though. That and a no-deal Brexit are the only 2 things that can happen realistically and the second referendum is definitely more palatable option between the two for the vast majority. Every and any argument I have heard against having one is frankly bull****!

J Mysterio

road_high wrote: »

Nissan is a classic Brexit example of vulnerability. They’re building generic Japanese cars that can be built anywhere for 80% export to the EU. I don’t think you can rationalize with this level of stupidity and even when the cold hard reality of tariffs and JIT disruption are spelled out they still seem to want it even more.

My parents actually bought a new Sunderland built Nissan Qashqai last year. That wont be happening again in the future. It's the cold hard reality: they haven't shot themselves in the foot, they have blown their own bloody legs off.

10000maniacs

[PHP][/PHP]

road_high wrote: »

Nissan is a classic Brexit example of vulnerability. They’re building generic Japanese cars that can be built anywhere for 80% export to the EU. I don’t think you can rationalize with this level of stupidity and even when the cold hard reality of tariffs and JIT disruption are spelled out they still seem to want it even more.

Brexit is very similar to the cult of WW 1 but without the weapons.
Franz Ferdinand shot.
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia.
Germany declares war on France.
Germany invades Belgium.
Britain declares war on Germany.
Millions of young Brits sign up to kill Germans and are slaughtered.
But its all good and remembered with poppies.

tuxy

Perhaps in the future Brits can wear badges with big red buses on them.

J Mysterio

Far-right 'yellow vest' Brexiteers chase Anna Soubry shouting 'traitor' and 'Hitler'

Far-right 'yellow vest' group heckling politicians and journalists, after blocking London bridges

Reminds one of this delightful image.

serfboard

Heard someone on the radio this morning (think it might have been Simon Coveney) saying that there is a majority in the British Parliament for No No-Deal. (And according to the latest opinion poll on here, a marjotiy in the country either. An astonishing 33% are in favour of No-Deal, but two thirds are not.)

Which is fine. But then you get into: "OK, what do you want?"

At this point the No No-Deal consensus breaks down two ways - Remainers, or "Dealers".

The "Deal" camp splits further into Mays Deal (a small number) or "Deal Eile" (as the GAA might say).

And this "Deal Eile" camp futher splits into many pieces with conflicting views.

And the EU is not going to negotiate another deal.

My take now on the sequence is:

Deal voted down in January, followed by
Extension to A50, followed by
Ref2, with a
Possible GE as well.

seamus

J Mysterio wrote: »

Far-right 'yellow vest' Brexiteers chase Anna Soubry shouting 'traitor' and 'Hitler'

Far-right 'yellow vest' group heckling politicians and journalists, after blocking London bridges

The UK police need to take a firm hand with these groups, dissipate these protests before they get out of hand.

They're not just "angry" or "disillusioned". They're dangerous psychopaths.

lawred2

far right groups calling Anna Soubry Hitler...

that's not exactly computing for me

tuxy

serfboard wrote: »

My take now on the sequence is:
Deal voted down in January, followed by

Extension to A50, followed by

Ref2, with a

Possible GE as well.

You think the EU will just grant an extension to article 50 because Mays deal is voted down?

serfboard

tuxy wrote: »

You think the EU will just grant an extension to article 50 because Mays deal is voted down?

No, I don't think that they'll "just" grant an extension.

I think that they will grant a strict time-limited extension with some fairly onerous conditions.

Which Teresa May will sign up to because she will do anything to stay an extra day in the job.

And, by the time that extension has expired, if there is no Ref2 or GE in the meantime, and no change by the British side, then there will be no further extensions granted, and it will either be take the Deal or Crash-out.

Failure to take the Deal at that time means Crash-Out.

Leroy42

tuxy wrote: »

You think the EU will just grant an extension to article 50 because Mays deal is voted down?

I think the EU will be pragmatic and is an extension is asked for, it means that the possibility of staying in exists, and therefor the EU would be willing to see what happens.

As Serfboard dais, I reckon it would be pretty tightly time limited.

But what the latest No Deal preparations show is that the EU is willing to bend in order to protect itself, it that happens to help out TM or indeed the Uk then even better.

THe upcoming elections place a major spanner in the works. The EU will want to know exactly what seats are available and to whom. So they really need to know well before May if the UK intend to take up the current allocation or not.

So my guess would be an extension would need to be requested in January, but the EU will demand that a ref/decision is taken prior to end of March.

robinph

Leroy42 wrote: »

So my guess would be an extension would need to be requested in January, but the EU will demand that a ref/decision is taken prior to end of March.

Could the EU take the flapping over a referendum, and what the questions can be, out of the UK's hands? You get to have an extension (if you ask for it in Jan so the UK has time to arrange a referendum and EU to sort out their elections), you have to run a referendum or final decision in parliament by date X, your options are no deal/ remain/ Mays deal, ask for anything else and the extensions are cancelled and it's no-deal.

Of course the EU are not going to make that offer now, and May isn't going to ask for an extension until the 28th March.

serfboard

Leroy42 wrote: »

THe upcoming elections place a major spanner in the works. The EU will want to know exactly what seats are available and to whom. So they really need to know well before May if the UK intend to take up the current allocation or not.

So my guess would be an extension would need to be requested in January, but the EU will demand that a ref/decision is taken prior to end of March.

I think the solution to that is fairly logical.

Nominations for the EP have to be in by a certain date presumably.

The only way British nominations should be allowed is if they have decided to Remain (by whatever mechanism) by nomination date.

Failure to decide to Remain by nomination date, means you miss out on the elections.

Then, if at some later stage you decide to Remain, the process is the same as when another country joins mid-term:

When a nation joins mid-term, a by-election will be held to elect their representatives.

This has happened six times, most recently when Croatia joined in 2013.

So the process should be straightforward enough as far as I can see.

Leroy42

serfboard wrote: »

I think the solution to that is fairly logical.

Nominations for the EP have to be in by a certain date presumably.

The only way British nominations should be allowed is if they have decided to Remain (by whatever mechanism) by nomination date.

Failure to decide to Remain by nomination date, means you miss out on the elections.

Then, if at some later stage you decide to Remain, the process is the same as when another country joins mid-term:So the process should be straightforward enough as far as I can see.

But they would have allocated the current UK seats out to other countries. Is it really feasible to then ask those countries to vote again just to let the UK get their seats back?

IN terms of the extension, I think the EU would want a very clear proposal for the UK as to what exactly they had planned. I would guess it would have to be something like Remain or May Deal. If they are still messing about with the possibility of No Deal I don't reckon the EU will be interested and it would show that the UK parliament are still horribly split.

To get an extension, just like Ireland did for Lisbon 2, the UK would have to show that they are going for Remain, they have a strategy in place and everything would be aimed at getting a full remain vote.

black forest

Ian Dunt is putting the No Deal preparations of the EU in context:

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/12/20/eu-no-deal-plans-our-childish-outburst-has-put-us-at-their-m

Looking at that there is no reason for the brexiteers to have a jolly good christmas. The EU is looking for itself and it’s members. The advantages for the UK are just a side effect. It will not prevent the chaos at Dover or other ports and all duties and custom procedures will take immediate effect.

As there is no chance for a second referendum before end of March and no chance of an election till then as well there are only three possibilities on the table.

Mays deal, revoking Article50 or No Deal Brexit.

As others have pointed out there might be a chance for a second referendum
and may be an election if the EU is willing to prolong the time limit shortly beyond March 2019. May be with the condition that the UK can’t take part within the upcoming elections for the EU parlament? If that is technically possible at all.

If May get her deal through HoC in January the backstop should be safe. Should the worst case happen i’m quite sure the the UK will fold within a few weeks and one of the first things the EU will ask for will be an absolute safe back stop before anything else will be on the table.

Of course i could be completely wrong.;)

Keatsian

serfboard wrote: »

No, I don't think that they'll "just" grant an extension.

I think that they will grant a strict time-limited extension with some fairly onerous conditions.

Which Teresa May will sign up to because she will do anything to stay an extra day in the job.

Theresa May will still be Prime Minister whether the UK crashes out or not. She is safe from a Conservative leadership challenge for 12 months. Seeking an extension to Article 50 might actually be a greater risk to her position as PM than choosing a no deal Brexit, as the Brexiteer wing of the Tory backbenches would view it as a step toward cancelling Brexit, and that might provoke them to support a vote of no confidence in government.