Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Laois_Man · 12-12-2018 03:17PM

David Cameron did not do the cowardly thing - He did the respectable thing! It might not be saying much, but he was a more honorable PM than May is

Laois_Man · 12-12-2018 03:17PM

El Weirdo wrote: »

137 Tory MPs have publicly declared their support for TM. Whether they're telling the truth or not is another matter.

How many votes does she need to defeat the motion of no confidence? 150+?

158

Strazdas · 12-12-2018 03:18PM

El Weirdo wrote: »

137 Tory MPs have publicly declared their support for TM. Whether they're telling the truth or not is another matter.

How many votes does she need to defeat the motion of no confidence? 150+

She'll probably 'win' the vote. Of far more interest will be the level of opposition to her - that's the thing that will decide her long term future.

serfboard · 12-12-2018 03:19PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Laura Keunnsberg suggesting that she is going to tell the party later that she is not going to context the next election but will step down after Brexit is delivered.

Unlike Maggie Thatcher, I don't believe that TM will go if she only gets 50%+1 in the vote.

She will have to be dragged out of No. 10 kicking and screaming, and having her fingers prised off the door jams.

intellectual dosser · 12-12-2018 03:20PM

El Weirdo wrote: »

137 Tory MPs have publicly declared their support for TM. Whether they're telling the truth or not is another matter.

How many votes does she need to defeat the motion of no confidence? 150+?

She needs 158

Latest count is 174 publicly supporting her

Tell me how · 12-12-2018 03:20PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

David Cameron did not do the cowardly thing - He did the respectable thing! It might not be saying much, but he was a more honorable PM than May is

Can't agree with that view.

She has done many things wrong but not sure how her honour can be questioned when she picked up a stick dynamite masquerading as a baton.

What do you think she should have done which you would consider as respectful.

Laois_Man · 12-12-2018 03:22PM

serfboard wrote: »

Unlike Maggie Thatcher, I don't believe that TM will go if she only gets 50%+1 in the vote.

She will have to be dragged out of No. 10 kicking and screaming, and having her fingers prised off the door jams.

She'll win with more than 40 to spare IMO

lawred2 · 12-12-2018 03:23PM

McGiver wrote: »

How is it staggering?

rUK - £11.3
RoI - £3.9
rEU - £2.0
World - £4.3

RoI exports are "only" 33% of that to the rUK. EU27 exports are still only 50% of that to the rUK. Long way to go to shift the focus from the rUK to the EU and elsewhere.

rUK - 53% exports
EU27 - 27%
World - 20%

Scotland is in a similar position, actually even more dependent on the rUK trade. It would have to seriously reorient their exports to think about independence. AFAIk the figure in Scotland's case is 60%+.

Proportional changes are relative.

And those relative changes are staggering.

Despite the backdrop of a run up to a possible hard Brexit, which the DUP would actively agitate for if any other deal was perceived to be weakening their union, the North is becoming increasingly dependent on the South of Ireland for exports.

And in fact it is trade with the RoI that filled a gap left by the consumption decline in rUK..

I don't think anyone here read that and thought in macro terms that the 'mainland' was not the largest 'export' market for NI.

blackcard · 12-12-2018 03:23PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

David Cameron did not do the cowardly thing - He did the respectable thing! It might not be saying much, but he was a more honorable PM than May is

There are 315 Conservative MP's so 158 is the number that May needs to survive. She doesn't seem like the resigning type but hard to see her struggling on unless she gets 200 or more votes

briany · 12-12-2018 03:25PM

El Weirdo wrote: »

137 Tory MPs have publicly declared their support for TM. Whether they're telling the truth or not is another matter.

How many votes does she need to defeat the motion of no confidence? 150+?

The irony if she wins by a close vote and all the Brexiteer MPs are still complaining about her.

hill16bhoy · 12-12-2018 03:26PM

Oh, it's a long, long while from May to December
But the days grow short 'til Britain's no longer a member
When the autumn weather turns Brexit to flames
One hasn't got time for the waiting game

Oh, the days dwindle down to a precious few
September, November
And these few precious days I'll spend with EU
These precious days I'll spend with EU

intellectual dosser · 12-12-2018 03:30PM

I still wonder if Theresa May is a Remain Wolf in Brexit clothing.

She'll get a mandate from her party later today to pursue her WA (putting ERG in their box). Parliament will still not support her deal. Without a mandate to sign the deal with the EU she'll be 'forced' to go back to the people or to a GE, in which not a single seat in HoC is safe.

She talks about leaving the EU to respect the referendum, but rarely talks about the benefits of leaving. She is painting Labour into being the party of hot air. She hasnt bent over to the DUP...etc. I need to finish the thought process!

Laois_Man · 12-12-2018 03:31PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Can't agree with that view.

She has done many things wrong but not sure how her honour can be questioned when she picked up a stick dynamite masquerading as a baton.

What do you think she should have done which you would consider as respectful.

Seriously?

NOBODY trusts her. Including the Irish government which is why we're insisting on the backstop - and rightly so.

She never had ANY intention of going ahead with the vote that was supposed to happen yesterday - it was all a time delaying act. She has no problem throwing DUP under the bus and dishonoring their agreement. The Government she leads has been found in contempt - the first time in history it has ever occurred. Any viewing of any HoC exchanges over the last 3 days will see how utterly disingenuous her responses have been time and again. She even lied thru her teeth to get the PM job in the first place. She played both sides of the debate in the referendum campaign itself - hedging her bets. Need I keep going - because I could. I can't believe it's a serious question!

Podge_irl · 12-12-2018 03:33PM

McGiver wrote: »

How is it staggering?

rUK - £11.3
RoI - £3.9
rEU - £2.0
World - £4.3

RoI exports are "only" 33% of that to the rUK. EU27 exports are still only 50% of that to the rUK. Long way to go to shift the focus from the rUK to the EU and elsewhere.

What would be a more revealing statistic is how much of the rUK trade goes through Dublin. A statistic that doesn't matter a jot right now but will matter a whole deal in 4 months time potentially.

Tell me how · 12-12-2018 03:34PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

Seriously?

NOBODY trusts her. Including the Irish government which is why we're insisting on the backstop - and rightly so.

She never had ANY intention of going ahead with the vote that was supposed to happen yesterday - it was all a time delaying act. She has no problem throwing DUP under the bus and dishonoring their agreement. The Government she leads has been found in contempt - the first time in history it has ever occurred. Any viewing of any HoC exchanges over the last 3 days will see how utterly disingenuous her responses have been time and again. She even lied thru her teeth to get the PM job in the first place. She played both sides of the debate in the referendum campaign itself - hedging her bets. Need I keep going - because I could. I can't believe it's a serious question!

I think you have no idea of just what manoeuvring in politics means.

I clarify again that she has lots done wrong but the suggestion that she is less honourable than Cameron (or the idiots who decided not to go for the Tory leadership because of the mess that had to be dealt with) is fiction.

bob mcbob · 12-12-2018 03:44PM

Douglas Thoughtless Headache wrote: »

If they ship up 4yrs worth of the glorious buckfast brew for free, before topping up the wall, peace shall forever prevail.

Geordonia has a ring to it also, perhaps the most isolated urban area of 2.6m they have. While Newcastle voted to remain, the surrounds did not.

4 years of buckfast and Trident nuclear missiles - sounds like a hell of a party to me

LeinsterDub · 12-12-2018 03:45PM

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1072839747431792641

Excellent thread on way no matter what way they turn the backstop or a CU is the only outcome.

LuckyLloyd · 12-12-2018 04:00PM

intellectual dosser wrote: »

I still wonder if Theresa May is a Remain Wolf in Brexit clothing.

She'll get a mandate from her party later today to pursue her WA (putting ERG in their box). Parliament will still not support her deal. Without a mandate to sign the deal with the EU she'll be 'forced' to go back to the people or to a GE, in which not a single seat in HoC is safe.

She talks about leaving the EU to respect the referendum, but rarely talks about the benefits of leaving. She is painting Labour into being the party of hot air. She hasnt bent over to the DUP...etc. I need to finish the thought process!

What benefits?

cml387 · 12-12-2018 04:00PM

Well worth reading. And from a Daily Telegraph journalist no less.

Dyr · 12-12-2018 04:08PM

I've been away for a few hours, what further ridiculous calamities worthy of an Eastenders cliffhanger have befallen us in the interim?

Army Coup? Corbyn riding unicorn into the house of commons?

PropJoe10 · 12-12-2018 04:09PM

intellectual dosser wrote: »

I still wonder if Theresa May is a Remain Wolf in Brexit clothing.

She'll get a mandate from her party later today to pursue her WA (putting ERG in their box). Parliament will still not support her deal. Without a mandate to sign the deal with the EU she'll be 'forced' to go back to the people or to a GE, in which not a single seat in HoC is safe.

She talks about leaving the EU to respect the referendum, but rarely talks about the benefits of leaving. She is painting Labour into being the party of hot air. She hasnt bent over to the DUP...etc. I need to finish the thought process!

She voted to Remain in the EU herself. I would say she probably still holds the view that the UK is better off in the EU than outside it, but she's trying to follow through on the result of the referendum as that's her job as PM.

Anyway, there's very few if any benefits for the UK if they leave the EU. Not much to say on that at all.

intellectual dosser · 12-12-2018 04:11PM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

What benefits?

The ones ERG drone on about...

Take back our borders!
Take back our money!
Take back our laws!

Cleverly did lean on these in the C4 debate but I hear TM predominantly reference respecting the referendum.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-12-2018 04:14PM

She'll win this comfortably and gain a free pass for a year.

Biggest losers ERG and DUP.

Tell me how · 12-12-2018 04:16PM

Bambi wrote: »

I've been away for a few hours, what further ridiculous calamities worthy of an Eastenders cliffhanger have befallen us in the interim?

Army Coup? Corbyn riding unicorn into the house of commons?

Michael Gove was literally accosted by Santa Claus.

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1072852657528815619

Thatnastyboy · 12-12-2018 04:18PM

intellectual dosser wrote: »

The ones ERG drone on about...

Take back our borders!
Take back our money!
Take back our laws!

Cleverly did lean on these in the C4 debate but I hear TM predominantly reference respecting the referendum.

Are there any genuine tangible benefits to them leaving? Surely when you look from an objective viewpoint there HAS to be something?? other than soundbytes obviously

The whole exercise is baffling, I have read every post in this (and many other) thread, I have tried to get as deep an understanding of the whole scenario & process and no matter what I do, I just cannot grasp what the British are trying to achieve.

intellectual dosser · 12-12-2018 04:18PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

She'll win this comfortably and gain a free pass for a year.

Biggest losers ERG and DUP.

ERG for sure, but not so much the DUP.

If May wins, they'll need to decide if they will continue supporting the government, and their rhetoric in the last few days suggest they wont.

Then again the DUP may suffer under the GE they'd trigger, so they may not follow through on their words.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-12-2018 04:21PM

intellectual dosser wrote: »

ERG for sure, but not so much the DUP.

If May wins, they'll need to decide if they will continue supporting the government, and their rhetoric in the last few days suggest they wont.

Then again the DUP may suffer under the GE they'd trigger, so they may not follow through on their words.

Backstop will be rock solid concrete if she wins. DUP don't have the balls to bring down the govt.

Arguably after threatening her they are the biggest loser if she wins.

Nody · 12-12-2018 04:25PM

Thatnastyboy wrote: »

Are there any genuine tangible benefits to them leaving? Surely when you look from an objective viewpoint there HAS to be something?? other than soundbytes obviously

There are tangible benefits for a very limited number of people who will benefit from the crash (be it pound, businesses or property) in a disaster economy style. Others want to turn UK into little USA in terms of regulation for similar reasons (though I'd not be surprised if there is one or two idealists in there from rich families who'll not be impacted anyway).

Folkstonian · 12-12-2018 04:27PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Backstop will be rock solid concrete if she wins. DUP don't have the balls to bring down the govt.

Arguably after threatening her they are the biggest loser if she wins.

A win doesn’t give her a free pass to do anything.

But more pertinently, with no credible alternative on the table, people were predicting she would get her withdrawal agreement through parliament comfortably enough.

She pulled the vote because even she realised she faced a humiliating rout.

I definitely wouldn’t be counting chickens before the result of tonight’s vote is officially released.

fash · 12-12-2018 04:37PM

cml387 wrote: »

Well worth reading. And from a Daily Telegraph journalist no less.

Peter Foster is a really good journalist on brexit, well worth keeping up with.

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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