Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rory28 · 11-12-2018 04:17PM

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

so let's assume we have a 2nd "people's" vote.
what question do you put on the ballot paper?

the same question again? Stay or Leave
a 3 way question?
a 2 way question?

what if you get the same vote again, then what?
what if you get a reverse decision, but of the same proportions (52 v 48) as before? a 3rd vote?

How about this;

1) We take Mays Deal
2) No Deal Brexit

They can do a return vote in a few years.

ancapailldorcha · 11-12-2018 04:19PM

There was a great comment made on the latest episode of the Remainiacs podcast whereby the 52:48 leave win was a clear mandate for the Norway/EEA option as it was the only way to satisfy both sides which is why Norway went down that route after two rebuffs from the electorate.

fash · 11-12-2018 04:19PM

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

so if 35% vote for one option, and 65% vote for the other 2, is it right and proper that one third hold sway over two-thirds?

You could do a STV vote if you prefer - although there is concern that that is too complicated.
You could also do it:
"Stay or go" and:
"If the majority votes go, shaft Northern Ireland, yes or no".

joe40 · 11-12-2018 04:20PM

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

so let's assume we have a 2nd "people's" vote.
what question do you put on the ballot paper?

the same question again? Stay or Leave
a 3 way question?
a 2 way question?

what if you get the same vote again, then what?
what if you get a reverse decision, but of the same proportions (52 v 48) as before? a 3rd vote?

I would say another vote, simply stay or leave. If the vote is still leave then parliament have a two way choice May's Deal or no deal exit.

If the vote is remain, then withdraw article 50.

At least this time it will be a better informed decision one way or the other

Wheres Me Jumper? · 11-12-2018 04:20PM

Rory28 wrote: »

How about this;

1) We take Mays Deal
2) No Deal Brexit

They can do a return vote in a few years.

that would be about the least contentious "solution", but i can see the Remoaners, well 'er moaning

Rory28 · 11-12-2018 04:22PM

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

that would be about the least contentious "solution", but i can see the Remoaners, well 'er moaning

tbh I completely understand their frustration. They dont want to see there country go off a cliff and cant understand why 52% do. I have sympathy for them.

Shelga · 11-12-2018 04:22PM

joe40 wrote: »

I would say another vote, simply stay or leave. If the vote is still leave then parliament have a two way choice May's Deal or no deal exit.

If the vote is remain, then withdraw article 50.

At least this time it will be a better informed decision one way or the other

What if the result is a three-way split? Three options doesn’t provide any clarity.

People voted for Brexit. May’s deal is the only Brexit possible. So, with this more detailed information, surely they should be able to vote for it, or Remain. Especially now they know they can revoke article 50 at any moment.

demfad · 11-12-2018 04:24PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

There was a great comment made on the latest episode of the Remainiacs podcast whereby the 52:48 leave win was a clear mandate for the Norway/EEA option as it was the only way to satisfy both sides which is why Norway went down that route after two rebuffs from the electorate.

The PM of Norway has said that the EFTA would not be an option because the UK might "mess it up for Norway too".

But a SM + CU solution might be on the cards.

It is down to what can be achieved now.

Corbyn is distancing himself from an immediate Vote of confidence.
I think he secretly wants May to get her deal and the Tories the blame for it.

There seems to be concern now that May can run down the clock without the parliament being able to do much about it.

Wheres Me Jumper? · 11-12-2018 04:25PM

Rory28 wrote: »

tbh I completely understand their frustration. They dont want to see there country go off a cliff and cant understand why 52% do. I have sympathy for them.

but wasn't the economy supposed to tank after the vote to leave?
and as far as some Leavers are concerned it tanked/went off a cliff many years ago.

Inquitus · 11-12-2018 04:27PM

All 3 options have to be on the ballot, No Deal, Remain or May's deal.

Rory28 · 11-12-2018 04:27PM

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

but wasn't the economy supposed to tank after the vote to leave?
and as far as some Leavers are concerned it tanked/went off a cliff many years ago.

we will see what happens after March. I hope they bounce back quick but all signs point to sh1t.

joe40 · 11-12-2018 04:27PM

Shelga wrote: »

What if the result is a three-way split? Three options doesn’t provide any clarity.

People voted for Brexit. May’s deal is the only Brexit possible. So, with this more detailed information, surely they should be able to vote for it, or Remain. Especially now they know they can revoke article 50 at any moment.

I wasn't suggesting a 3 way vote, just another stay or leave vote. Parliament then as the legislators decide whether to accept the May's deal or the inevitable no deal scenario. (assuming leave win again)

megatron989 · 11-12-2018 04:30PM

I'd be worried that a second vote, one which offered an out, which would likely win depending on what media or poll you believe, would kick off some serious backlash.

The remain side have been unhappy thus far but they don't riot or kick off about it. If remain got a second shot and won out, even by a clear majority unlike the first vote, I'd think the Brexit supporting side would loose it's collective mind and throw an absolute wobbler. Something to make the french stop and look even.

Wheres Me Jumper? · 11-12-2018 04:33PM

SNIP. Please read the charter before posting again.

4068ac1elhodqr · 11-12-2018 04:37PM

Inquitus wrote: »

All 3 options have to be on the ballot, No Deal, Remain or May's deal.

That would suit the remainers perfectly, as the (two) leave options would be full dilution of the leave concept, therefore 48%R, 26%+%26%.

Would be surprised if there is 2nd EU Ref, but the ever shortening bookie odds (near evens today) is showing it could happen, anything could happen really, such is the mess.

JC is the fav to become next PM, and is highly likely sometime in 2019, when he gets in let the choas really start, proper style.

fash · 11-12-2018 04:37PM

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

but wasn't the economy supposed to tank after the vote to leave?

I don't believe any of the serious analyses suggested very serious immediate tanking- although sterling is down nearly 25% on its pre brexit high. It has lost about 3% of growth since then I believe.

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

and as far as some Leavers are concerned it tanked/went off a cliff many years ago.

It did with the GFC/austerity. Not helped by brexit related weakness since and the possible calamity of a no deal.

Inquitus · 11-12-2018 04:42PM

Douglas Thoughtless Headache wrote: »

That would suit the remainers perfectly, as the (two) leave options would be full dilution of the leave concept, therefore 48%R, 26%+%26%.

Would be surprised if there is 2nd EU Ref, but the ever shortening bookie odds (near evens today) is showing it could happen, anything could happen really, such is the mess.

JC is the fav to become next PM, and is highly likely sometime in 2019, when he gets in let the choas really start, proper style.

It would have to feature alternative voting to work obviously, that really doesn't need to be said when proposing a poll with 3 possibilities.

murphaph · 11-12-2018 04:42PM

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

so if 35% vote for one option, and 65% vote for the other 2, is it right and proper that one third hold sway over two-thirds?

Like it says on virtually every Irish ballot paper "Vote in order of your preference" with 1,2,3...

Not rocket science when you have more than one option.

hill16bhoy · 11-12-2018 04:43PM

Inquitus wrote: »

All 3 options have to be on the ballot, No Deal, Remain or May's deal.

That would require a two stage referendum like New Zealand had recently as regards their flag.

i) a referendum between the two different forms of Brexit
ii) A run-off referendum for the winner of stage i) against Remain.

To vote again on Brexit, it has to be known what Brexit is.

Wheres Me Jumper? · 11-12-2018 04:43PM

fash wrote: »

I don't believe any of the serious analyses suggested very serious immediate tanking- although sterling is down nearly 25% on its pre brexit high. It has lost about 3% of growth since then I believe.

It did with the GFC/austerity. Not helped by brexit related weakness since and the possible calamity of a no deal.

the UK economy was in serious danger of overheating preBrexit vote, and sterling was overvalued.
like 10,000s of others i visited London with my family recently to avail of the adjusted sterling. the price of many UK goods has become much more competitive.

Not all gloom 'n doom you know.

Inquitus · 11-12-2018 04:44PM

hill16bhoy wrote: »

That would require a two stage referendum like New Zealand had recently as regards their flag.

i) a referendum between the two different forms of Brexit
ii) A run-off referendum for the winner of stage i) against Remain.

To vote again on Brexit, it has to be known what Brexit is.

Use alternative voting, the option which finishes last in the first count has its votes redistributed per the 2nd preference, if given.

Water John · 11-12-2018 04:45PM

UK has not used ballot 1,2,3... Thus the nuances of it which we have acquired over time would be missing. Would lead to a unsatisfactory Ref IWT.

Inquitus · 11-12-2018 04:47PM

Water John wrote: »

UK has not used ballot 1,2,3... Thus the nuances of it which we have acquired over time would be missing. Would lead to a unsatisfactory Ref IWT.

Agreed, but its a simple concept, shouldn't be too hard to put some adverts on TV and in the press explaining it in 30 seconds, no?

tuxy · 11-12-2018 04:49PM

SNP trying to push Labour to go for no confidence vote now. Labour holding off as they don't think they can win it right now.

Wheres Me Jumper? · 11-12-2018 04:50PM

Douglas Thoughtless Headache wrote: »

That would suit the remainers perfectly, as the (two) leave options would be full dilution of the leave concept, therefore 48%R, 26%+%26%.

Would be surprised if there is 2nd EU Ref, but the ever shortening bookie odds (near evens today) is showing it could happen, anything could happen really, such is the mess.

JC is the fav to become next PM, and is highly likely sometime in 2019, when he gets in let the choas really start, proper style.

if the Leavers think they are being cheated out of their decision, it'll make the Paris riots look like Tea at The Ritz

Leroy42 · 11-12-2018 04:51PM

Douglas Thoughtless Headache wrote: »

JC is the fav to become next PM, and is highly likely sometime in 2019, when he gets in let the choas really start, proper style.

I always find it ironic that the side so convinced and vocal about project fear spend so much of their time sending out warnings of chaos (Corbyn) and riots (2nd Ref)

Case in point

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

if the Leavers think they are being cheated out of their decision, it'll make the Paris riots look like Tea at The Ritz

robinph · 11-12-2018 04:51PM

murphaph wrote: »

Like it says on virtually every Irish ballot paper "Vote in order of your preference" with 1,2,3...

Not rocket science when you have more than one option.

I'd not be putting any number next to either of the leave options as they are both equally stupid courses of action as far as I'm concerned.

You can put 1,2,3 next to options of if person A, B or C is who you want to be elected, but not for a referendum type question. You could have a Leave/ Remain vote and then a Leave option A/ Leave option B.

J Mysterio · 11-12-2018 04:53PM

Inquitus wrote: »

All 3 options have to be on the ballot, No Deal, Remain or May's deal.

Absoutely not. It should be May Deal or Remain (if there is to be a second referendum).

J Mysterio · 11-12-2018 04:56PM

megatron989 wrote: »

I'd be worried that a second vote, one which offered an out, which would likely win depending on what media or poll you believe, would kick off some serious backlash.

The remain side have been unhappy thus far but they don't riot or kick off about it. If remain got a second shot and won out, even by a clear majority unlike the first vote, I'd think the Brexit supporting side would loose it's collective mind and throw an absolute wobbler. Something to make the french stop and look even.

Agreed. Either way though, Westminister and society more generally are badly divided. Seems they need Brexit to learn, so I hope for May's deal, as unlikely as it looks.

robinph · 11-12-2018 04:57PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Absoutely not. It should be May Deal or No Deal (if there is to be a second referendum).

What about the remain option which we've just been told is now possible after two years of being lied to about it not being possible?

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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