Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

ancapailldorcha · 11-12-2018 12:01PM

DOCARCH wrote: »

I think UK MPs (including DUP MPs) need a swift crash course on the Good Friday Agreement (an international and binding treaty). It's only then that they might 'get' the (temporary) back stop.

I think you're misreading the situation. It's not that they don't know about the GFA. It's that they don't care. It's simply an obstacle to removed so a no deal Brexit can be delivered.

VinLieger · 11-12-2018 12:02PM

EKRIUQ wrote: »

It has just proven that Teresa's May Plan B was to look for more time.

Her last straw is to convince other EU leaders how damaging it will be for them, if there is a No Deal scenario for the UK and then hope that the EU will lighten there stance coming from these EU leaders.

But the EU knows how damaging its going to be. The problem is its going to be far more damaging to the UK than the EU or any member state including Ireland, so she has nothing new to tell them or bargain with

monkeybutter · 11-12-2018 12:10PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think you're misreading the situation. It's not that they don't know about the GFA. It's that they don't care. It's simply an obstacle to removed so a no deal Brexit can be delivered.

Does it specifically say there can't be a border?

Realistically what does this border need to be in the first place. Just put some customs on the main entrances, if you then try to get into the UK or out without the right paperwork, well you don't get on the boat.

Same goes on the way out of Ireland.

It's all about trade. Who wants to illegally enter the North in the first place. You still need passports/visas etc to get on the boat or plane if you look half foreign

They haven't been shyytin on about leaving since before they joined, so let them off

it's not going to be the disaster predicted, Europe wants to sell to the UK and vice versa, they still will

DOCARCH · 11-12-2018 12:10PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think you're misreading the situation. It's not that they don't know about the GFA. It's that they don't care. It's simply an obstacle to removed so a no deal Brexit can be delivered.

Certainly seems that way in the case of the DUP! No deal would suit their ideology nicely!

Shelga · 11-12-2018 12:11PM

There is no hope of the EU agreeing that the UK can wriggle out of the backstop, right? But there are wonderful technology solutions to the border issues anyway, so nothing to fear for the Brexiters.

Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May, as well as other party leaders, should get together and agree on a second vote, in conjunction with possibly extending article 50 in order to facilitate this. The options should be May’s deal, or remain. To put No Deal on the ballot paper gives it legitimacy, which is does not have.

Wheres Me Jumper? · 11-12-2018 12:18PM

Baron de Charlus wrote: »

Mod Note

Heed the charter folks. This isn't the place for just posting up gifs, videos, links and tweets. You need to contribute to the debate.

Thanks

Apologies. (just love that Homer clip)

there are 2 possible explanations.

1. she is extremely clever and this is part of a well-thought strategy, so she's in effect 5 moves ahead of Barnier, Juncker, Varadkar, Boris, Gove and everyone else.
2. i refer you to my "stupid like a fox" Homer clip.

murphaph · 11-12-2018 12:19PM

I would like to imagine that even in the unlikely event that the Commission and Council pushed for a removal of the backstop, that the parliament would reject the deal without it.

I see nothing but overwhelming support for Ireland and the peace process by the EU. I think May (given her language yesterday) has already been told that the member states are not about to throw Ireland under the bus at the last minute.

This whistle stop tour of May's is pure theatre.

briany · 11-12-2018 12:22PM

Shelga wrote: »

There is no hope of the EU agreeing that the UK can wriggle out of the backstop, right? But there are wonderful technology solutions to the border issues anyway, so nothing to fear for the Brexiters.

Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May, as well as other party leaders, should get together and agree on a second vote, in conjunction with possibly extending article 50 in order to facilitate this. The options should be May’s deal, or remain. To put No Deal on the ballot paper gives it legitimacy, which is does not have.

Leaving No Deal off the ballot could give it more legitimacy rather than less or none, imo, because it allows no-deal advocates to say it was the option the government never wanted you to have and they want to keep us tied to the EU, taking laws from Brussels etc. etc. etc.

It's probably not a voice that would ever truly be silenced, but the best chance the UK would have of quietening it down would be a sound defeat at the polls.

Nody · 11-12-2018 12:24PM

Well we got what May is supposedly asking for...

Andrea Leadsom has lifted the lid on Theresa May’s demands in her emergency talks with the EU to salvage her Brexit deal, insisting she has “plenty of options”.

The prime minister will seek an “addendum” to the withdrawal agreement, the Commons leader said - giving MPs power over whether to enter the Irish border backstop and to pull out of it.

Ms Leadsom suggested the change would be “legally binding”, despite the EU ruling out legal changes and No 10 refusing to say Ms May would make such a demand.

I mean why not tack on that EU will pay UK 350MM GBP a week to NHS while she's at it? It's as likely to go through so might as well go big after all.

Silent Running · 11-12-2018 12:30PM

There's a lot of talk about a people's vote being one solution. But what if it isn't? What if the people get another vote and it's 50/50? That won't solve anything. Also, knowing the British attitude, it's quite possible that they would double down on the leave side. A second people's vote is still a risky move.

The only true solutions at this point are to cancel the whole thing, or hunker down for a no-deal exit.

J Mysterio · 11-12-2018 12:31PM

DOCARCH wrote: »

Certainly seems that way in the case of the DUP! No deal would suit their ideology nicely!

And hasten it's demise at the same time.

Nody · 11-12-2018 12:33PM

Silent Running wrote: »

There's a lot of talk about a people's vote being one solution. But what if it isn't? What if the people get another vote and it's 50/50? That won't solve anything. Also, knowing the British attitude, it's quite possible that they would double down on the leave side. A second people's vote is still a risky move.

The only true solutions at this point are to cancel the whole thing, or hunker down for a no-deal exit.

But neither of those options will resolve it either as it will piss off +/- 50% of the population by doing "the wrong thing". At least a people's vote has a chance to deliver direction as to what the UK population of today wants; it may still be a 50/50 split but at least the politicians have asked them compared to reading the tea leafs from the previous unclear choices.

Wheres Me Jumper? · 11-12-2018 12:33PM

murphaph wrote: »

I would like to imagine that even in the unlikely event that the Commission and Council pushed for a removal of the backstop, that the parliament would reject the deal without it.

I see nothing but overwhelming support for Ireland and the peace process by the EU. I think May (given her language yesterday) has already been told that the member states are not about to throw Ireland under the bus at the last minute.

This whistle stop tour of May's is pure theatre.

not quite sure what type of theatre you frequent, but it aint that.
i would put in the category of very piss-poor pantomine.
as a british person i would be so embarrassed to see my "leader" supplicate herself in this manner.:o

MrMusician18 · 11-12-2018 12:34PM

Nody wrote: »

Well we got what May is supposedly asking for...

I mean why not tack on that EU will pay UK 350MM GBP a week to NHS while she's at it? It's as likely to go through so might as well go big after all.

I don't see where the strategy is in that. Unless they've found something in the EU to drive a wedge into, the EU is not going to essentially abandon the backstop.

Maybe it's to blame the EU for being intransigent (in their eyes) so as to avoid taking the blame for the fallout, but that still isn't a desirable outcome for the UK.

Or it could be all domestic, a ploy to run the clock down further and force the HoC to accept the deal. That though is the highest stakes strategy and risks the PM being out maneuvered by another actor or events. Literally any outcome is possible if that is the strategy.

robinph · 11-12-2018 12:35PM

If the EU were to give in on the backstop then the whole thing should just instantly disband. They cannot change position on it or one of the central points of the EU existing disappears. If the EU has a problem with the backstop then their only solution would be to kick Ireland out of the club, and that ain't happening just because the UK is trying to screw things up for itself.

The best that May will come back with from the EU is a slightly more flowery version of "We hope that the backstop doesn't have to be implemented, but it's still there if things don't work out".

robinph · 11-12-2018 12:38PM

Nody wrote: »

Well we got what May is supposedly asking for...

I mean why not tack on that EU will pay UK 350MM GBP a week to NHS while she's at it? It's as likely to go through so might as well go big after all.

They already have the power to implement the backstop or not. The options being find another solution, or the backstop kicks in.

Wheres Me Jumper? · 11-12-2018 12:39PM

Nody wrote: »

But neither of those options will resolve it either as it will piss off +/- 50% of the population by doing "the wrong thing". At least a people's vote has a chance to deliver direction as to what the UK population of today wants; it may still be a 50/50 split but at least the politicians have asked them compared to reading the tea leafs from the previous unclear choices.

the people's vote eh?

so the first/only vote was what? must have been aliens, spiritual entities, or holograms who voted in that one?
why not have the best of 3?
or maybe best of 5?

lawred2 · 11-12-2018 12:41PM

monkeybutter wrote: »

Does it specifically say there can't be a border?

Realistically what does this border need to be in the first place. Just put some customs on the main entrances, if you then try to get into the UK or out without the right paperwork, well you don't get on the boat.

Same goes on the way out of Ireland.

It's all about trade. Who wants to illegally enter the North in the first place. You still need passports/visas etc to get on the boat or plane if you look half foreign

They haven't been shyytin on about leaving since before they joined, so let them off

it's not going to be the disaster predicted, Europe wants to sell to the UK and vice versa, they still will

once you have customs borders - security borders inevitably follow - in an area of extreme sensitivity - security forces on borders lead to inflamed tensions lead to targets for belligerents and hey presto we're back 50 years..

FreudianSlippers · 11-12-2018 12:41PM

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

the people's vote eh?

so the first/only vote was what? must have been aliens, spiritual entities, or holograms who voted in that one?
why not have the best of 3?
or maybe best of 5?

It is clear that the public were uninformed at best (misled more likely) and therefore the democratic legitimacy of the first referendum is in question.

briany · 11-12-2018 12:42PM

"Ah, come on now, lads. It's just Ireland, like. We've thrown it under the bus loads of times. It's great. Give it a try." - T. May

lawred2 · 11-12-2018 12:43PM

Nody wrote: »

Well we got what May is supposedly asking for...

I mean why not tack on that EU will pay UK 350MM GBP a week to NHS while she's at it? It's as likely to go through so might as well go big after all.

MPs can decide not to enact the backstop?

She must know what the answer to that is right?

briany · 11-12-2018 12:44PM

MPs can decide whether or not to enact the backstop by voting May's deal up or down.

FreudianSlippers · 11-12-2018 12:45PM

lawred2 wrote: »

MPs can decide not to enact the backstop?

She must know what the answer to that is right?

A non-backstop-backstop. This truly is the dumbest timeline.

Skelet0n · 11-12-2018 12:45PM

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

the people's vote eh?

so the first/only vote was what? must have been aliens, spiritual entities, or holograms who voted in that one?
why not have the best of 3?
or maybe best of 5?

This is one of the more bizarre view points of brexit.
It's not voting on the same thing again, it'd be voting on the deal that is on the table not some abstract concept.

You can't have too much democracy, the real reason this line is being touted is because they're afraid that they'll lose the vote without the help of Putin and the biting reality of brexit being self-imposed economic sanctions.

Shelga · 11-12-2018 12:47PM

Silent Running wrote: »

There's a lot of talk about a people's vote being one solution. But what if it isn't? What if the people get another vote and it's 50/50? That won't solve anything. Also, knowing the British attitude, it's quite possible that they would double down on the leave side. A second people's vote is still a risky move.

The only true solutions at this point are to cancel the whole thing, or hunker down for a no-deal exit.

They have to do something. No Deal is utter madness. Only other option is a people’s vote.

J Mysterio · 11-12-2018 12:48PM

briany wrote: »

"Ah, come on now, lads. It's just Ireland, like. We've thrown it under the bus loads of times. It's great. Give it a try." - T. May

While I realise this is a joke, you should use apostrophe's rather than quotation marks.

Thia could be considered real by some given all the shıte that has been said.

Wheres Me Jumper? · 11-12-2018 12:48PM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

It is clear that the public were uninformed at best (mislead more likely) and therefore the democratic legitimacy of the first referendum is in question.

you could say the same about 90% of these votes.
did you read the Nice Treaty cover to cover? if you did fair play to ya.

lawred2 · 11-12-2018 12:48PM

briany wrote: »

"Ah, come on now, lads. It's just Ireland, like. We've thrown it under the bus loads of times. It's great. Give it a try." - T. May

this is the core of it... they can not adjust to a reality where Ireland can not be freely shafted.. The Paddies with diplomatic weight behind them.. Can't be having the potato munchers getting above themselves...

they still believe that all it takes is a chat behind closed doors with the right type of "big boys" and all will be good.. Paddy will be in his place

J Mysterio · 11-12-2018 12:50PM

lawred2 wrote: »

this is the core of it... they can not adjust to a reality where Ireland can not be freely shafted.. The Paddies with diplomatic weight behind them.. Can't be having the potato munchers getting above themselves...

they still believe that all it takes is a chat behind closed doors with the right type of "big boys" and all will be good.. Paddy will be in his place

Well, May did go to the trouble of ringing Varadkar and everything.

Akrasia · 11-12-2018 12:51PM

Silent Running wrote: »

There's a lot of talk about a people's vote being one solution. But what if it isn't? What if the people get another vote and it's 50/50? That won't solve anything. Also, knowing the British attitude, it's quite possible that they would double down on the leave side. A second people's vote is still a risky move.

The only true solutions at this point are to cancel the whole thing, or hunker down for a no-deal exit.

If they vote again to leave then so be it. But its definitely worthwhile asking them to confirm the deal now that they have more information about what they're voting for

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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