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Property Market 2018

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    #3122
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,870 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    mkdon wrote: »
    well it won't in mine if my offer is accepted as it's low balling the asking prices

    If it’s not you won’t be buying a house though !


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    #3123
    mkdon
    Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    Cyrus wrote: »
    If it’s not you won’t be buying a house though !

    well not unless there are suddenly bidders that willing to outbid me


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    #3124
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,870 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    mkdon wrote: »
    well not unless there are suddenly bidders that willing to outbid me

    They may just refuse to sell


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    #3125
    LotharIngum
    Registered Users Posts: 210 ✭✭LotharIngum


    donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »
    It'll affect the ability to get a mortgage even further. So this apparent glut of property that is going to fall into the market will have no buyers.

    I thought I had read that word somewhere before :)

    Interesting seeing how predictions from only a few years ago panned out, now that we have hindsight isn't it?

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=93391652

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=78848822


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    #3126
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,526 ✭✭✭Villa05


    LotharIngum wrote:
    I thought I had read that word somewhere before

    LotharIngum wrote:
    Interesting seeing how predictions from only a few years ago panned out, now that we have hindsight isn't it?


    While your down memory lane, you may remember that the banks were given a blank cheque bailout which allowed them the sweep their problems under the carpet and sit on them

    I wonder will a country with 200 billion debt mountain be able to bail them out next time

    Next time this happens we are on our own. Our begging bowl will not be filled by our European friends and our financial problems will have to be resolved the old fashioned way.


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    #3127
    sightband
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 670 ✭✭✭sightband


    phunkadelic wrote: »
    Update:my prediction came to fruition. Offer accepted on one of the properties within a few weeks of these posts. Offer was about 4% under asking price. We used the accepted offer and went back to another of the properties, and they then accepted the offer (15% under asking price) on their property. We mulled it over for a few days and went for the one that was first accepted.
    We are now contracts signed and exchanged.
    The other 3 properties are all still sitting on daft and will be for the foreseeable, and I have no sympathy for them.

    I posted some weeks ago on my experience of bidding which was followed with a few responses on how another bidder played a blinder by blowing me out of the park with counter bids that were excessive and that was a “good strategy” “look at them now, their strategy got them the house and you don’t have it”.....I congratulate you on common sense, prudence and it’s not bad to what those blow someone out of a bid attitude may be kicking in with some stabilisation. It was heading that way.


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    #3128
    Brego888
    Registered Users Posts: 1,314 ✭✭✭Brego888


    Is an engineers structural survey as relevant for a new build as a 2nd hand house?
    I'd imagine it is but do the builders/contractors offer any sort of guarantee on new builds?


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    #3129
    mkdon
    Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    Cyrus wrote: »
    They may just refuse to sell

    possible but that could happen but that's the risk when buying even a bike second hand


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    #3130
    matsy1
    Registered Users Posts: 175 ✭✭matsy1


    mkdon wrote: »
    possible but that could happen but that's the risk when buying even a bike second hand

    If you really needed a bike you'd eventually just pay the asking price.


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    #3131
    LotharIngum
    Registered Users Posts: 210 ✭✭LotharIngum


    Villa05 wrote: »
    While your down memory lane, you may remember that the banks were given a blank cheque bailout which allowed them the sweep their problems under the carpet and sit on them

    I wonder will a country with 200 billion debt mountain be able to bail them out next time

    Next time this happens we are on our own. Our begging bowl will not be filled by our European friends and our financial problems will have to be resolved the old fashioned way.


    Is that another prediction :)

    I hope people realize that if any of the predictions any of us made over the years ever came to pass (and I would imagine most people got 90% of their predictions wrong 5 years down the line) that it was a total guess.


    I predicted a property crash for about 7 years in a row. Then I got it right.

    Does that make me a good economist or does it make me just persistent? The latter I think, but I am willing to admit that.


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    #3132
    realitykeeper
    Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    padd b1975 wrote: »
    Hoping for another year of increases and waving goodbye to ten years of negative equity.

    I was always a bit dubious about this reblowing of the property bubble with borrowed billions as if that was going to improve our lot. All the QE funding of bank bailouts and fiscal deficits has done is bloat the national debt and postponed the pain we were to cowardly to face ten years ago. If fundamentals were sound, we would have a functioning property market with construction to meet market demand. (Social demand is just desire, it has nothing to do with economics).

    The next recession will bring weeping and the gnashing of teeth.


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    #3133
    mkdon
    Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    realitykeeper wrote: »
    I was always a bit dubious about this reblowing of the property bubble with borrowed billions as if that was going to improve our lot. All the QE funding of bank bailouts and fiscal deficits has done is bloat the national debt and postponed the pain we were to cowardly to face ten years ago. If fundamentals were sound, we would have a functioning property market with construction to meet market demand. (Social demand is just desire, it has nothing to do with economics).

    The next recession will bring weeping and the gnashing of teeth.

    when will that be ? you have lotto numbers too please ?


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    #3134
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,526 ✭✭✭Villa05


    LotharIngum wrote:
    Is that another prediction

    LotharIngum wrote:
    I hope people realize that if any of the predictions any of us made over the years ever came to pass (and I would imagine most people got 90% of their predictions wrong 5 years down the line) that it was a total guess.


    I think it important to distinguish between wild predictions and an analysis of facts and a summation of where that may take us

    It would be far more beneficial to you me and the readers if you took the content of my post and explain what part of it you disagree with and why

    With discussion we get a fuller picture.


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    #3135
    myshirt
    Registered Users Posts: 5,245 ✭✭✭myshirt


    We can always drop intert rates to stimulate economy activity.

    Oh wait, not an option. Already rock bottom!


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    #3136
    Moonjet
    Registered Users Posts: 236 ✭✭Moonjet


    myshirt wrote: »
    We can always drop intert rates to stimulate economy activity.

    Oh wait, not an option. Already rock bottom!

    Our mortgage interest rates are among the highest in the EU.


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    #3137
    greenfield21
    Registered Users Posts: 976 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    myshirt wrote: »
    We can always drop intert rates to stimulate economy activity.

    Oh wait, not an option. Already rock bottom!

    More QE it is then, 'whatever it takes'


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    #3138
    realitykeeper
    Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    mkdon wrote: »
    when will that be ? you have lotto numbers too please ?

    It will be in the future and I will have the exact winning numbers for you immediately after the next lotto draw, which I predict will be in the future also.


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    #3139
    soirish
    Registered Users Posts: 713 ✭✭✭soirish


    greenfield21 wrote: »
    More QE it is then, 'whatever it takes'

    ECB is cutting down on the helicopter money as soon as next month.

    ecb.png


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    #3140
    mkdon
    Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    whats helicopter money and the significance of this (might seem a silly question)?


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    #3141
    Islander13
    Registered Users Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭Islander13


    mkdon wrote: »
    whats helicopter money and the significance of this (might seem a silly question)?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing


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    #3142
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Villa05 wrote: »
    .....

    I wonder will a country with 200 billion debt mountain be able to bail them out next time

    Next time this happens we are on our own. Our begging bowl will not be filled by our European friends and our financial problems will have to be resolved the old fashioned way.

    If it happens again that a blank check is required to bail out European bond holders invested in Irish bonds I'm sure that merkel & co will stump up...... as they would have done if FF told them that Ireland wasn't covering it all the first time :)
    My view differs to yours, such is life.


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    #3143
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,526 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Augeo wrote:
    If it happens again that a blank check is required to bail out European bond holders invested in Irish bonds I'm sure that merkel & co will stump up...... as they would have done if FF told them that Ireland wasn't covering it all the first time My view differs to yours, such is life.


    Ireland/FF gave the guarentee. Merkel and co backed Ireland knowing they were on the hook for the bondholders. Win win for Germany bond holders

    EU has agreed no future bank bailouts. Cyprus being the first bail in


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    #3144
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,949 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Villa05 wrote:
    EU has agreed no future bank bailouts. Cyprus being the first bail in


    If another major bail out/in period occurs within Europe, you may kiss goodbye to the EU as we know it


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    #3145
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Villa05 wrote: »
    EU has agreed no future bank bailouts. Cyprus being the first bail in

    Allmost by definition every crisis is different and requires ad-hoc measures. IMO planning ahead means making sure you have as many options available when things go bad but not to rule-out specific courses of action no matter what.

    Hence I wouldn’t assume there is any pre-define doctrine on how to handle a banking crisis which is set in stone (or if there is, it won’t necessarily be adhered to as it can’t possibly cover all situations). It would be very strange to rule out some solutions in advance without knowing exactly what you could be up against.

    So I wouldn’t rule out any future bailouts: if there is another crisis, you would expect the national government(s) involved in that crisis and European monetary authorities to evaluate all options available in that specific situation and to go for whichever one seems the least bad to them at the time. IMO, dogmatically ruling out some options which seem better in that particular situation because “we had decided never to do that” would quickly appear to be inappropriate in a crisis situation. So if for whatever reason a bailout is seen as the best option (which is possible in some situations), I don’t see how anyone could agree against it purely from a dogmatic point of view.


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    #3146
    LotharIngum
    Registered Users Posts: 210 ✭✭LotharIngum


    Villa05 wrote: »
    I think it important to distinguish between wild predictions and an analysis of facts and a summation of where that may take us

    It would be far more beneficial to you me and the readers if you took the content of my post and explain what part of it you disagree with and why

    With discussion we get a fuller picture.

    Sorry. Not going to get into an argument with anyone who thinks they can predict anything about a future recession.

    It would be like arguing with someone who believes in astrology.


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    #3147
    LotharIngum
    Registered Users Posts: 210 ✭✭LotharIngum


    When looking at property prices it always seems to base it on the average asking price.

    I would tend to take asking prices with a pinch of salt.

    But could there be a situation where there are more sales, but the average sale price is less because people are now buying apartments and not houses. The average price could go down a bit, but the sales could go up at the same time.
    The NPPR kind of hides this info.


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    #3148
    sightband
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 670 ✭✭✭sightband


    LotharIngum wrote: »
    Sorry. Not going to get into an argument with anyone who thinks they can predict anything about a future recession.

    It would be like arguing with someone who believes in astrology.

    It’s absolutely nothing like that. Do you honestly believe predicting downturns, recessions, crashes are as ridiculous as astrology? All economists are some kind of voodoo or crystal ball gazers? With the exception of unpredictable catastrophic events like natural disasters or war which can seriously impact markets there is a financial science called economics which some few are extremely adept at and can forecast this and benefit hugely from it also.


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    #3149
    Midlife
    Registered Users Posts: 900 ✭✭✭Midlife


    sightband wrote: »
    It’s absolutely nothing like that. Do you honestly believe predicting downturns, recessions, crashes are as ridiculous as astrology? All economists are some kind of voodoo or crystal ball gazers? With the exception of unpredictable catastrophic events like natural disasters or war which can seriously impact markets there is a financial science called economics which some few are extremely adept at and can forecast this and benefit hugely from it also.

    There is but half of them get it wrong.

    I think it's a fully inexact Science and involves a lot of hindsight.

    It's very gambly as well. All you can really say is that ...
    'prior indications lead us to believe that if things are as we think they are and nothing else major impacts the system, then the following is likely to happen'


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    #3150
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,526 ✭✭✭Villa05


    LotharIngum wrote:
    Sorry. Not going to get into an argument with anyone who thinks they can predict anything about a future recession.


    Not so much an argument rather a discussion. That's what boards is all about, is it not?

    I know I don't know everything but I would like for people who disagree with my points to state what points and why they disagree.

    This is a discussion board about a market. Markets involve predicting factors that affect them


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    #3151
    fungie
    Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭fungie


    Has anybody else found it in the last few months that asking prices are being set very unrealistically? We are looking in north Dublin and found a few good places and put bids on them a few % below asking (5-10%). These are generally outright declined but remain the highest bid for some time (a month or so). The demand for them is also low, at most one or two people per viewing.

    In some cases I've went to estate agent and said I'd happy go between my bid and asking and get the deal done but vendor comes back with something like 1% under asking which isn't much of a compromise.


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