Property Market 2018

L1011

Asset sales in Ireland would be aircraft disposals. They likely bought as many frames again at higher values though

The_Conductor

Zenify wrote: »

HNA is in aviation and real estate. Dont think they have sovereign debt? They sold 2.2b of assests in Ireland in 2018.

Correct me if I'm wrong- but the second largest component of their business in Ireland is debt insurance? (obviously the largest is aviation holdings)

Either way- we're getting off-topic.

Zenify

The_Conductor wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong- but the second largest component of their business in Ireland is debt insurance? (obviously the largest is aviation holdings)

Either way- we're getting off-topic.

Found out exactly what the 2.2b is:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/irish/hna-in-talks-to-sell-2bn-stake-in-avolon-to-japans-orix-37193723.html

Wasnt trying to get off topic. Was just wondering if people here thought we were going to see big companies offloading assets this year, be it companies or properties. From the picture earlier it just looked like Ireland was at the top of their list but its obvious now it was just one big asset.

Frilly Knickers

elizunia87 wrote: »

Hi,
I am only new, looking for some tips with buying " the dream " place. Me and my husband are looking to buy small house soon. We have "given" by bank 189k and we have saved 30k.
Please be honest, can we get something in the price up to 210k? The houses in Finglas, Tallagh, are they really in a rough area? Are there many people interested to buy there?

We are also consider to buy to let to Limerick, small house up to 130-150k in Limerick suburbs. The same question: if there many people looking for home

I will appreciate all tips.

Thank you
Eliza

There are good and bad parts of tallaght. Being very honest, e210k won't get you into the good parts these days unless maybe the house is in exceptionally bad condition.

A rule of thumb would be east between square and m50 is decent, the further west from the square you head towards jobstown the worse it gets

How are you getting a mortgage for either Dublin or limerick? Do you not work in Dublin?

Beheretomorrow

The_Conductor wrote: »

My brother wrote a very easy to read layman's guide to whats happening in the markets at the moment:

We are in a strange period, where market technicals are driving prices rather than fundamentals, appetite for risk (ie what drives financial asset prices up) is super low because of negative year to date total return across many asset classes. we are at the tail end of an artificially (cheap money from central banks) inflated boom, the world needs to get used to the idea that the cycle of cheap money and high growth needs to end soon (US interest rates are going up, Eurozone Bond buying is ending), political risk is high in part because of Trump and the global growth outlook is deteriorating because of among other issues Trumps trade war and slowing eurozone growth. The Situation with US dollar is also unusual it’s strong because the late cycle fiscal expansion which the US can’t really afford is stimulating US growth, also US interest rates are high versus Europe which props the dollar further, strong dollar is bad for emerging market generally which have issued huge amounts of debt over last 5yrs, and emerging market growth is the big driver of global growth. Also financial market volatility is structurally higher than it was 10years ago because of changes in regulations (higher bank reserve ratio requirements) mean banks don’t offer as much liquidity to financial markets as they did in the past. The oil price move over October / November was a huge shock, oil lost 32% and had its worst month in 10years driven again a lot by trump efforts to push down the price of oil for political gains.

Basically a lot of people lost a lot of money in stocks bonds, commodities this year and there’s lots of uncertainty because of trump and everyone is sitting on their hands while the market flaps in the wind

Brexit is a mess, Italian budget deficit it a mess. Lots to worry about.

I was thinking about buying but convinced prices will fall next year. The wealth effect will kick in shortly as people's pensions and investments shrink and a global slowdown surfaces in the data. Watch the Fed speech this evening. They talk about a global slowdown and the need to unwind their balance sheet post QE.

UsBus

Not sure whats next for Irish property but the stock market is in deep trouble now. This is where negative sentiment starts to take hold and all bets are off then..
As in 2007-2008, external factors are going to have a serious effect on Ireland's economy in the next year or two..
Election or Minority government, we could be in deep here...

Mickiemcfist

Beheretomorrow wrote: »

I was thinking about buying but convinced prices will fall next year. The wealth effect will kick in shortly as people's pensions and investments shrink and a global slowdown surfaces in the data. Watch the Fed speech this evening. They talk about a global slowdown and the need to unwind their balance sheet post QE.

Don't think there's many pensioners buying up property. And if investments (ie. equity markets) start to shrink further, they may diversify into bricks & mortar. I don't see any shift in the fundamentals for property any time soon.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Beheretomorrow wrote: »

I was thinking about buying but convinced prices will fall next year. The wealth effect will kick in shortly as people's pensions and investments shrink and a global slowdown surfaces in the data. Watch the Fed speech this evening. They talk about a global slowdown and the need to unwind their balance sheet post QE.

Best of luck getting a mortgage when the arse falls out of the market :pac:

The_Conductor

Beheretomorrow wrote: »

I was thinking about buying but convinced prices will fall next year. The wealth effect will kick in shortly as people's pensions and investments shrink and a global slowdown surfaces in the data. Watch the Fed speech this evening. They talk about a global slowdown and the need to unwind their balance sheet post QE.

I did watch the Fed speech.
They changed their forward guidance- yes, however, now they expect 2 rather than 3 interest rate increases in 2019- aka they expect to further tighten credit to the market. The 3 increases had been priced into the dollar- which is seeing some losses against other currencies (esp. the Euro- which is somewhat strengthened by the Italian climbdown).

Sentiment is all over the shop.

Mad_maxx

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Don't think there's many pensioners buying up property. And if investments (ie. equity markets) start to shrink further, they may diversify into bricks & mortar. I don't see any shift in the fundamentals for property any time soon.

Equity markets have sharp corrections - bear markets on a regular basis, far more often than property, very sharp bear market from 2000 to early 2003 yet property kept rising

adriaaaan

Beheretomorrow wrote: »

I was thinking about buying but convinced prices will fall next year. The wealth effect will kick in shortly as people's pensions and investments shrink and a global slowdown surfaces in the data. Watch the Fed speech this evening. They talk about a global slowdown and the need to unwind their balance sheet post QE.

The Fed chairman is raising interest rates because the US economy is too strong. He was criticized for ignoring signs of a slowdown.
A worldwide recession may trigger house price fall in 2019/20. Will banks lend you money? Will the interest rates be the same as now if QE ends. Will you still have a job? Your partner? How's your family situation? Kids in an apartment? Will you be the only smart person who doesn't buy a house and continues to rent thereby pushing rents higher? Will immigrant nurses fleeing Brexit and tech bros in Facebook, finance bros from London city banks impact the price of rent? Will live with your parents for another few years to wait out the recession? How long will the recession last? If a recession hits in 2019 and house prices fall 5 % but someone on boards tells you they will fall 5 % for the next 3 years, would you buy a house in 2019? Would you buy the dip ? An already decreciating asset ? Would banks valuation of a property match yours in a depreciating market?

Don't wish cast recessions so that you can pick up a house in Dalkey on the buy-and-sell. Follow the mantra of this forum: if you can afford the repayments on a house you want in a good location that will improve the living conditions of your family...go for it.
If you need a house and can afford a house in a good location, buy a house

beaz2018

adriaaaan wrote: »

The Fed chairman is raising interest rates because the US economy is too strong. He was criticized for ignoring signs of a slowdown.
A worldwide recession may trigger house price fall in 2019/20. Will banks lend you money? Will the interest rates be the same as now if QE ends. Will you still have a job? Your partner? How's your family situation? Kids in an apartment? Will you be the only smart person who doesn't buy a house and continues to rent thereby pushing rents higher? Will immigrant nurses fleeing Brexit and tech bros in Facebook, finance bros from London city banks impact the price of rent? Will live with your parents for another few years to wait out the recession? How long will the recession last? If a recession hits in 2019 and house prices fall 5 % but someone on boards tells you they will fall 5 % for the next 3 years, would you buy a house in 2019? Would you buy the dip ? An already decreciating asset ? Would banks valuation of a property match yours in a depreciating market?

Don't wish cast recessions so that you can pick up a house in Dalkey on the buy-and-sell. Follow the mantra of this forum: if you can afford the repayments on a house you want in a good location that will improve the living conditions of your family...go for it.
If you need a house and can afford a house in a good location, buy a house

Probably the best and most sensible post in this forum's history!

UsBus

UsBus wrote: »

Not sure whats next for Irish property but the stock market is in deep trouble now. This is where negative sentiment starts to take hold and all bets are off then..
As in 2007-2008, external factors are going to have a serious effect on Ireland's economy in the next year or two..
Election or Minority government, we could be in deep here...

If the stock market was actually in deep trouble you wouldn't be mentioning it as you wouldn't know IMO

Unless equity markets had already capitulated Some observers reckon that's actually the case

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

It might be sub prime but a 3 year PCP usually sees the garage getting 55%+ of the price of the vehicle over the 3 years. If the borrower comes into a can't pay situation the garage gets the car back.
If there is a global recession in the next few years there'll be plenty 1, 2 and 3 year old cars available for sale ..........which might well be grand as less folk will be buying new ones.
The PCP bubble really isn't a huge worry.

correct i can understand why people keep touting it as the next bubble to burst,

it isn't

UsBus

Augeo wrote: »

If the stock market was actually in deep trouble you wouldn't be mentioning it as you wouldn't know IMO

Unless equity markets had already capitulated Some observers reckon that's actually the case

Well historically, December is a good month for stocks. This month is on route to being the worst since the great depression in the 1930s.. The fed seem to have decided on interest rate increases in the future so I can see a steady drain from over valued stocks in the coming months..Trump's economic policy is starting to come off the rails now..

Wheres Me Jumper?

i am optimistic by nature. so far all the properties i've acquired have increased multiple of times their original pp, even after the Celtic tiger collapse.

that said i would be cautious right now. Brexit, especially if we get a Hard one (which is very likely imho) will impact this country greatly and will hammer confidence.

if things resolve themselves, then i will be in the market for a couple more investments, probably in the late summer.

my advice right now? HOLD

The_Conductor

Back on-topic please- I've just had to delete 13 posts discussing buying and selling cars and car insurance etc. If you want to discuss car PCPs etc- take it elsewhere...........

adriaaaan

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

i am optimistic by nature. so far all the properties i've acquired have increased multiple of times their original pp, even after the Celtic tiger collapse.

that said i would be cautious right now. Brexit, especially if we get a Hard one (which is very likely imho) will impact this country greatly and will hammer confidence.

if things resolve themselves, then i will be in the market for a couple more investments, probably in the late summer.

my advice right now? HOLD

HOLD what though? You are obviously a successful property speculator, and good luck to you, you have the luxury of picking and choosing and buying and holding. But property for most people (including this thread I think ) is about acquiring a home.
Every piece of advice in this thread should be couched by the person's situation. For example in Dublin, which is what I am familiar, rent for a two bed apartment is 1800-2200 in good locations. Repayments on a 2.7% fixed rate mortgage on a 430 k mortgage (a house worth 480 k) is about €1500. Now everything in context would you still HOLD? Would you wait till next year for interest rates to rose or rents to rise?
Got your decision...ok, say you are recently married and would like to start a family, but are currently renting paying 1800 in a two bed shoe box with a child due?, is the advice to still HOLD?

This isn't 2008 when people were accumulating and flipping houses as the prices were inflating, people in Dublin need houses because they want to start families, move on with life and get out of apartments.
I would have loved to buy a house in Dublin in 2012, but I was 21. Didn't need one. I need a house now so what should I do?

Also for those seeking advice, take the long view: if you bought a house in:
2007: You were a fool
2008: you were a clown
2009: a stupid idiot
2010: an idiot
2011: stupid
2012: the smartest person in the country
2013: pretty smart
2014: smart
2015: clever
2016: clever, but not as clever as the guy that bought last year
2017: cute but will probably be a fool
2018: a fool but might be cute

On a long enough timeline everyone is a fool or clever. But if you need a house you need a house.

Beheretomorrow

adriaaaan wrote: »

HOLD what though? You are obviously a successful property speculator, and good luck to you, you have the luxury of picking and choosing and buying and holding. But property for most people (including this thread I think ) is about acquiring a home.
Every piece of advice in this thread should be couched by the person's situation. For example in Dublin, which is what I am familiar, rent for a two bed apartment is 1800-2200 in good locations. Repayments on a 2.7% fixed rate mortgage on a 430 k mortgage (a house worth 480 k) is about €1500. Now everything in context would you still HOLD? Would you wait till next year for interest rates to rose or rents to rise?
Got your decision...ok, say you are recently married and would like to start a family, but are currently renting paying 1800 in a two bed shoe box with a child due?, is the advice to still HOLD?

This isn't 2008 when people were accumulating and flipping houses as the prices were inflating, people in Dublin need houses because they want to start families, move on with life and get out of apartments.
I would have loved to buy a house in Dublin in 2012, but I was 21. Didn't need one. I need a house now so what should I do?

Also for those seeking advice, take the long view: if you bought a house in:
2007: You were a fool
2008: you were a clown
2009: a stupid idiot
2010: an idiot
2011: stupid
2012: the smartest person in the country
2013: pretty smart
2014: smart
2015: clever
2016: clever, but not as clever as the guy that bought last year
2017: cute but will probably be a fool
2018: a fool but might be cute

On a long enough timeline everyone is a fool or clever. But if you need a house you need a house.

Timing is everything, just because you want something doesn't mean you need to ignore multiple red flags and buy right now. It's ok to be patient....maybe you'll be right, maybe you'll be wrong...that's ok too!

As someone who bought in 2006 maybe I'm scarred from the experience but I'll be sitting this one out for the next few months and holding on to my cash.

I'd not let current High rents & current low interest rates on a 400k mortgage colour my view too much either.

myshirt

Augeo wrote: »

I'd not let current High rents & current low interest rates on a 400k mortgage colour my view too much either.

Any interest rate risk can be mitigated now. Shop around.

The underlying econometrics support buying. With Brexit, it will have an impact, but not one of lowering house prices. If anything it's going to push home ownership into a more competitive space. We have somewhere near 4-5 FTB's getting a gift at the moment, and another 1-2 on top of that who live at home or are a blend of both (living at home in main population centre / getting a gift). That number will push to 7-8 per 10. That doesn't mean more people are getting gifts. It means that more people with gifts and with familial wealth are the ones who can buy. There is no space for the young couple paddling their own canoe.

A lot of money is going in to build to rent at the moment, the fabric of our housing market is changing and the persistent paying of 40-60% of take home is possible, and we could hit the ratio of 1 person per room needing to work. That f*cks over our average family unit now where there is circa 0.50 to 0.75 average industrial incomes per room, never mind those on low incomes who are plainly in a black hole it's near on impossible to get out of.

Aim to buy if you can buy is my advice, and if you don't know what you are doing go talk to someone who does.

mkdon

Augeo wrote: »

I'd not let current High rents & current low interest rates on a 400k mortgage colour my view too much either.

mixed bag no-one knows how property market will go up or down


as clear as mud

Wheres Me Jumper?

Beheretomorrow wrote: »

Timing is everything, just because you want something doesn't mean you need to ignore multiple red flags and buy right now. It's ok to be patient....maybe you'll be right, maybe you'll be wrong...that's ok too!

As someone who bought in 2006 maybe I'm scarred from the experience but I'll be sitting this one out for the next few months and holding on to my cash.

Brexit is the elephant of elephants in the room.
how that pans out will affect more than our house prices i reckon.
it would be folly to do anything until we get a better handle on which way that transpires.

sightband

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

Brexit is the elephant of elephants in the room.
how that pans out will affect more than our house prices i reckon.
it would be folly to do anything until we get a better handle on which way that transpires.

The real effects of Brexit will take years to manifest, at least a decade in my opinion.

Wheres Me Jumper?

sightband wrote: »

The real effects of Brexit will take years to manifest, at least a decade in my opinion.

i think we know fairly soon.
March 29th 11pm

mkdon

sightband wrote: »

The real effects of Brexit will take years to manifest, at least a decade in my opinion.

what is your opinion based on? ridiculous statement in my book - no-one knows effect of brexit exactly or even if it will happen deal or no deal so your opinion is worthless

Logical enough to reckon the effects of brexit (if it happens) will take years to manifest.
That's the way with most large economic & political events.

awec

Beheretomorrow wrote: »

Timing is everything, just because you want something doesn't mean you need to ignore multiple red flags and buy right now. It's ok to be patient....maybe you'll be right, maybe you'll be wrong...that's ok too!

As someone who bought in 2006 maybe I'm scarred from the experience but I'll be sitting this one out for the next few months and holding on to my cash.

What has patience got to do with it?

He could be patient, not buy a house, there be another crash and therefore no chance of buying a property any time soon. People always forget that the reason there is a property price crash is you cannot borrow money. The reason prices were so low in 2012 was hardly anyone was able to buy. This notion that people will hold on to their money and then buy at the bottom... good luck to you if you will require a mortgage.

The timing thing is a total red herring. It's not about want, it's about need. Sure you could buy and the price could go down significantly, but if that happens then you most likely would not have been able to buy it at all at the lower price, so you end up stuck renting again.

People who bought in 2007 have 10 years paid off their mortage, and will be making mortgage payments that are a fraction of what their rent would be.

sightband

mkdon wrote: »

what is your opinion based on? ridiculous statement in my book - no-one knows effect of brexit exactly or even if it will happen deal or no deal so your opinion is worthless

So no one knows the effects of brexit exactly so I could be completely right in what I am saying so it’s not worthless yet What exactly have you got to disprove it and make it worthless?

Wheres Me Jumper?

mkdon wrote: »

what is your opinion based on? ridiculous statement in my book - no-one knows effect of brexit exactly or even if it will happen deal or no deal so your opinion is worthless

all we do know for certain is that there is great uncertainty, which is bad for business.