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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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Rjd2

Nody wrote: »

They might be able to squeeze by to get a challenge going but have no chance of winning the ensuing battle for leadership. That's why it's been sable rattling for ages and why May should have grown a pair and simply told them no and ignored them.

They don't have the numbers to beat May. The remainers will back May against any brexiter so she should be fine. Javid would have been a wildcard though, a remainer but a soft one so could have peeled votes from both factions.

May should hold her ground as she has the numbers to beat Raab, Johnson etc.

Nody

Water John wrote: »

The ERG are a pathetic small bunch, know they can't remove TM but want to hold the sword over her. But then nobody wants the job.
They're divided as to what to do, when their moment comes.

They might be able to squeeze by to get a challenge going but have no chance of winning the ensuing battle for leadership. That's why it's been sable rattling for ages and why May should have grown a pair and simply told them no and ignored them.

kuro68k

Water John wrote: »

The ERG are a pathetic small bunch, know they can't remove TM but want to hold the sword over her. But then nobody wants the job.
They're divided as to what to do, when their moment comes.

They must have been planning this for years. I wouldn't write them off so quickly, I'm use they can find a useful idiot to fill the role and deliver for them.

Tinder Surprise

If there is a G.E would any party have the cahoonas to go with 'Vote for us Vote for Remain' ..or is that even possible at this stage?

Water John

The ERG are a pathetic small bunch, know they can't remove TM but want to hold the sword over her. But then nobody wants the job.
They're divided as to what to do, when their moment comes.

one armed dwarf

Is it not the case that markets have priced in the worst case scenario (no deal) and short term volatility is just on the spot reaction to the bad news?

I won't claim I'm informed on any of this but I've got all my savings in GBP from working in London the past few years and am always anxious to know when/if I should change it to Euro.

kowtow

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Could the BoE be supporting the currency as well?

No, not in any obvious sense.

I spent a the majority of my career in those markets and the rare occasions when when central banks are taking positions are perfectly obvious.

This is not such a situation.

Sterling is a massively traded currency with huge flows and the effects of Brexit have already been largely discounted. That is not to say it won't fall further but there are as many reasons to be long as to be short at this point.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

Don't dump GIF's here please.

Water John

Raab says he has confidence in PM but wants a change of direction on Brexit.

That won't be music to JRM.

Akrasia

joe40 wrote: »

The British people were definitely sold a pup in the first referendum. However in the last election they still returned a government of May's Tory party with her red lines, and no deal is better than a bad deal ****e. Along with 10 DUP MPs from the north who campaigned for a leave.

This mess is hurting me personally, but the Brits had 2 opportunities to stop this or at least minimise the damage.

I know a large minority are sensible and see this for what it is, but a majority of clowns in Britain and NI got us to this stage.

In the last GE, the tories lost a decent majority and ended up with a minority government supported by the loons in NI who most people in the UK never gave a 2nd thought to before last year. in that GE, the two main parties both campaigned on a Brexit platform so even if there were people who wanted to vote for a remain candidate, they may not have had that choice in their constituency (especially given the FPTP system where a third party may have had no chance of getting elected)

MrMusician18

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

It's the former. Businesses and investments have already been put on hiatus or moved out of the UK. The buoyant nature of the pound is related to investors feeling it's undervalued - i.e. there will be a deal, nothing will substantially change, etc. And every time it slips below a certain level bulls come back in to shore it up.

Could the BoE be supporting the currency as well?

MrMusician18

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1063053353280770048

Letters flying into the 1922 committee now.

We've heard that before

Captain Obvious

So are we now looking at another GE?

LuckyLloyd

megatron989 wrote: »

I know the pound is taking a hit today but it has shown remarkable stability thus far. Each time I'd have expected it to drop like a stone it remains strong, loosing a point or two maybe but no drama.
Can anyone shine some light on this at all? Is it a sign that all this noise isn't expected to end up at no deal by the financial powers that be? Or is it being caused by wait and see mentality with people waiting to the last possible moment before moving investments or business elsewhere (euro)

It's the former. Businesses and investments have already been put on hiatus or moved out of the UK. The buoyant nature of the pound is related to investors feeling it's undervalued - i.e. there will be a deal, nothing will substantially change, etc. And every time it slips below a certain level bulls come back in to shore it up.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1063053353280770048

Letters flying into the 1922 committee now.

Tabnabs

The list, so far...

Cabinet

Dominic Raab, Brexit secretary

Esther McVey, work and pensions secretary

Junior ministers

Suella Braverman, Brexit minister

Shailesh Vara, Northern Ireland minister

PPSs

Ranil Jayawardena, MoJ PPS

Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Education PPS

megatron989

I know the pound is taking a hit today but it has shown remarkable stability thus far. Each time I'd have expected it to drop like a stone it remains strong, loosing a point or two maybe but no drama.
Can anyone shine some light on this at all? Is it a sign that all this noise isn't expected to end up at no deal by the financial powers that be? Or is it being caused by wait and see mentality with people waiting to the last possible moment before moving investments or business elsewhere (euro)

Mr.Nice Guy

If May faces a leadership challenge, and decides to fight it, then it comes down to what is she going to fight for...? This agreement, which looks extremely unlikely to get through the HoC? Will she throw down the gauntlet to Brexiteers and tells them she'll pledge a second referendum if her deal is not supported? Will she tell her party she will ask for an extension of Article 50 from the EU in order to press for better terms (which she's unlikely to get but it may pacify some of the Brexiteers if she suggests it)?

What a complete mess this is.

Water John

Corbyn mainly is interested in Govn't owning or reowning and investing in public utilities and industry. He would agree to CU and SM if he could have this.
Not a Brexiteer in full metal jacket sense.

Sorry couldn't resist. You know the old jibe about the hostage taker making demands because they have his wife. The stock reply is 'you can keep her'.

ancapailldorcha

Captain Obvious wrote: »

Leavers calling into LBC Radio apologising for their vote. One burst into tears.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/leave-voter-cries-apologises-for-brexit/

That was brutal to listen to.

kowtow

Another resignation.

It's a great way of finding out who is in the cabinet.

[Deleted User]

joe40 wrote: »

Really hope you are right.
It would seem inconceivable that labour or Lib dems would reject this if the only other option was no deal.

But you must remember that Labour is led by a staunch anti European.

He is a wolf in sheep's clothing.

Brexit is his dream.

If Labour had any intention of staying in Europe and fixing things he has to go.

Seth Brundle

"we have your wife and won't release her until you meet our demands"

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1063037914412736512

Amirani

Captain Obvious wrote: »

Leavers calling into LBC Radio apologising for their vote. One burst into tears.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/leave-voter-cries-apologises-for-brexit/

That's absolutely incredible to listen to.

Mr.Nice Guy

Called it ten days ago.

Mr.Nice Guy wrote:

To paraphrase Edward Carson, we do not want sentence of death with a stay of execution for three months.

I suspect Raab is plotting his own exit strategy. Like his predecessor David Davis he is a true believer Brexiteer with lofty ambitions and he can't preside over a deal that will be roundly slated by his friends and supporters.

I suspect he knows his 3 month backstop can't be carried and he's using it as a pretext to resign. He's following the path of Johnson and Davis and wants his part in the betrayal myth fiction that is about to be unleashed upon the UK.

Hard to see how May can get this deal through now. She'll be labelled May the Magician if she manages it.

I don't see a General Election happening as under the Fixed Term Act it would require the Tories to vote for it, which they are extremely unlikely to do if they sense the country will look to punish them.

Think it's now a case of No Deal vs a People's Vote.

kowtow

Water John wrote: »

Gove would only take if he thought he could get Deal through HoC. I don't think it will. If he did he would be in prime place to replace May. That would be his calculation.

I think you are right. He'll also be watching to see whether a leadership election is being triggered. Various reports of either or both of the ERG and the 1922 meeting at lunchtime today.

By the by, May has just given (agreed with) a pretty clear explanation of the UK position on the best endeavors clause - essentially that it will bind the EU to consider electronic / technical solutions etc. to the border in good faith in order to avoid the backstop.

seamus

kowtow wrote: »

It's worth bearing in mind for perspective, that even with the big fall in sterling in the last 24 hours it is at a higher level against the Euro than it has been for most of the last four months, and it remains within a couple of pips of where it was this time last year and into December.

I can assure you that Sterling / EUR for the last year has been remarkable more for it's lack of volatility than for anything else - albeit in the wake of the big adjustment which took place following the referendum itself.

I do agree completely, but I feel the stability and improvement over the last few months has been based on sentiment, on the perception that a deal is coming, that there will be a breakthrough and that nobody is going to let a no-deal Brexit come to pass.

I wish I had the optimism (or perhaps insight) that some others seem to have that this is not it - Deal or No Deal. I see everyone taking firm stances against the deal everywhere, and all I can see is that if this deal is not approved, then a General Election is inevitable. Once that happens, there's no way we're getting anything in March but a disaster.

Water John

Gove would only take if he thought he could get Deal through HoC. I don't think it will. If he did he would be in prime place to replace May. That would be his calculation.

Captain Obvious

Leavers calling into LBC Radio apologising for their vote. One burst into tears.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/leave-voter-cries-apologises-for-brexit/

kowtow

Gove is / has been offered Brexit secretary job apparently.