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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,892 ✭✭✭✭Spook_ie


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Why would they. What benefit would it be to the RoI ?


    Because we could scupper any trade negotiations that might weaken Irish exports, it's a dog eat dog world out there.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭Call me Al


    Jim Allister doing a great job of increasing the anti UI vote in the Republic.
    I'd foresee him doing a SF on it and refusing to take his seat in the Dáil.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,688 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Spook_ie wrote: »
    Because we could scupper any trade negotiations that might weaken Irish exports, it's a dog eat dog world out there.


    Somehow I cannot see if both ourselves and the UK are exporting the same products to the EU that they will get a better deal than us with us being in the EU`s CU and SM.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    Spook_ie wrote: »
    Just a thought, If the backstop is legally written in with no preconditions, time limits etc. what's to stop Ireland playing real hardball over the trade agreement negotiations? Knowing they have nothing to worry about because the backstop is there.

    There is no scenario in which a good trade deal with the UK is not in Irelands interest. I think anyone would have to accept that given the chance, the UK would hold the border hostage in a trade negioation. Taking the issue off the table before the trade negioation begins is in Ireland's interest.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Call me Al wrote: »
    I'd foresee him doing a SF on it and refusing to take his seat in the Dáil.

    Ha ha ha!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Anthracite


    Because most European countries are too small or to weak to compete on the world stage by themselves anymore. This isn't just a European issues, across the world trade blocks are forming or formed.
    The UK was pretty quick to look for help standing up to Russia. I wonder how they would fare in future trade or other conflicts with the rest of the BRICs? Or even future powers like Indonesia?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Anthracite


    Call me Al wrote: »
    I'd foresee him doing a SF on it and refusing to take his seat in the Dáil.
    Win-win.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,855 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Spook_ie wrote: »
    Just a thought, If the backstop is legally written in with no preconditions, time limits etc. what's to stop Ireland playing real hardball over the trade agreement negotiations? Knowing they have nothing to worry about because the backstop is there.
    Well that's the bare bones of Article 50 right there. The exiting nation does all the obligatory stuff: tidies their room, picks up the old socks from under the bed and doesn't leave any messy borders or debts behind and gets a political statement on what kind of future relationship it will have. Which is binding on nobody.

    Then there's the long slow job of agreeing a trade deal that may or may not align with the above political statement. Most commentators who know about this stuff say it could take as much as eight years to get that done. So there will be hardball as a given.

    And then there's the "The Treaties shall cease to apply" part of A50. Which means all that stuff about planes being grounded etc. 750 ish of eggs that have to be removed from the cake and then re-inserted into a new cake, one by one as required.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,688 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Anthracite wrote: »
    The UK was pretty quick to look for help standing up to Russia. I wonder how they would fare in future trade or other conflicts with the rest of the BRICs? Or even future powers like Indonesia?


    No country that has a trade deal with the EU is going to give a better deal to the UK. If for no other reason than the economy of scale.
    Any that do not or are not negotiating one with the EU will look at the UK`s weakened position and screw them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,286 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Word is that talks have broken down between the EU and UK negotiating teams - they broke down at 2:45 am in the morning apparently last night.

    So, we are in to a period of brinkmanship.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,892 ✭✭✭✭Spook_ie


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    There is no scenario in which a good trade deal with the UK is not in Irelands interest. I think anyone would have to accept that given the chance, the UK would hold the border hostage in a trade negioation. Taking the issue off the table before the trade negioation begins is in Ireland's interest.


    If Ireland is exporting more of something to the EU why would we vote the UK a better trade or equal trade deal when we can just play hardball, we have the backstop and nothing to lose, maybe it might be something on the services side, we can still play hardball and no fallback for the UK take it or leave it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Anthracite


    Spook_ie wrote: »
    If Ireland is exporting more of something to the EU why would we vote the UK a better trade or equal trade deal when we can just play hardball, we have the backstop and nothing to lose, maybe it might be something on the services side, we can still play hardball and no fallback for the UK take it or leave it.
    And what of our trade with the UK?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,855 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Spook_ie wrote: »
    If Ireland is exporting more of something to the EU why would we vote the UK a better trade or equal trade deal when we can just play hardball, we have the backstop and nothing to lose, maybe it might be something on the services side, we can still play hardball and no fallback for the UK take it or leave it.
    We won't be doing any bilateral trade deals with the UK anyway. That's part of what being in the EU is all about. Yes, we'll have a say in that deal, but it's going to be negotiated on behalf of the 27.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,338 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    Call me Al wrote: »
    I'd foresee him doing a SF on it and refusing to take his seat in the D.


    When he resigned from the DUP he lost his European seat to Diane Dodds. He came 2nd to Ian Paisley Junior in General Election, so I don't think he would have the support to make it to the Dail anyway.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,892 ✭✭✭✭Spook_ie


    Anthracite wrote: »
    And what of our trade with the UK?

    What of it, if it's something the UK need they'll still need it and will still pay for it, meanwhile we've likely moved more and more trade to within the EU.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,700 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Word is that talks have broken down between the EU and UK negotiating teams - they broke down at 2:45 am in the morning apparently last night.

    So, we are in to a period of brinkmanship.

    Not "broke down" as such, just that they failed to reach an agreement and called it a night. The ball is back in the UK's court again if they want to try a new offer.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,892 ✭✭✭✭Spook_ie


    prawnsambo wrote: »
    We won't be doing any bilateral trade deals with the UK anyway. That's part of what being in the EU is all about. Yes, we'll have a say in that deal, but it's going to be negotiated on behalf of the 27.

    Yeah and we have a veto on the trade deal, so if we didn't like the UK competing with our Leprechaun exports they get no trade deal and the backstop is still there for our all Ireland leprechaun trade as well as intra EU leprechaun trade.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,005 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Spook_ie wrote: »
    Just a thought, If the backstop is legally written in with no preconditions, time limits etc. what's to stop Ireland playing real hardball over the trade agreement negotiations? Knowing they have nothing to worry about because the backstop is there.


    We have plenty to worry about, even if we get the backstop. The backstop does not guarantee that our trade with the whole of the UK continues as close to it is as we currently trade with them, only that there will not be a border on the island. So it is still very much in our interests to secure a trade deal with the UK that actually prevents the backstop from coming into force.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,264 ✭✭✭joeysoap


    Water John wrote: »
    Nolan just has a diff more aggressive style but it doesn't bother me. He is really showing up the idiots.

    Nolan has to be like that. He’s dealing with NI politicians every day.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,654 ✭✭✭10000maniacs


    May in her speech tonight wants control over laws, borders, money and the ability to strike trade deals with countries outside the EU. She wants to honour what the British people voted for. In other words she had a very bad meeting with the Brexiteers today and its no deal.
    Sad day for the Nationalists (and some Unionists) in Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement. That's probably it folks.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,892 ✭✭✭✭Spook_ie


    Enzokk wrote: »
    We have plenty to worry about, even if we get the backstop. The backstop does not guarantee that our trade with the whole of the UK continues as close to it is as we currently trade with them, only that there will not be a border on the island. So it is still very much in our interests to secure a trade deal with the UK that actually prevents the backstop from coming into force.

    But don't we actually run an overall balance of trade deficit with the UK.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,286 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    May in her speech tonight wants control over laws, borders, money and the ability to strike trade deals with countries outside the EU. She wants to honour what the British people voted for. In other words she had a very bad meeting with the Brexiteers today and its no deal.
    Sad day for the Nationalists (and some Unionists) in Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement. That's probably it folks.

    All of that can be done by leaving NI in the CU and SM. GB can then do as it likes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,088 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    jm08 wrote: »
    When he resigned from the DUP he lost his European seat to Diane Dodds. He came 2nd to Ian Paisley Junior in General Election, so I don't think he would have the support to make it to the Dail anyway.

    In a theoretical multiseat PR-STV constituency I would say he would.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,664 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Spook_ie wrote: »
    Just a thought, If the backstop is legally written in with no preconditions, time limits etc. what's to stop Ireland playing real hardball over the trade agreement negotiations? Knowing they have nothing to worry about because the backstop is there.
    (A) Self-interest, and (b) pressure from the EU.

    Self-interest, because a close EU/UK trade deal is very much in our interests. All forms of Brexit are bad for Ireland, but the softer the Brexit the less bad for us. The UK is one of our major export markets; barriers to trade between the UK and the EU hit us worse than any other country in the EU-27.

    Plus, the better the trade deal the UK gets with the EU, the less pressure there is to make the border harder, and the less incentive the UK has to try to get out of any no-hard-border commitments they have made.

    From every point of view, therefore, a sweet, sweet deal for the UK is very much in our interests, and when the time comes for this negotiation we'll be huge cheerleaders for the UK.

    And, even if none of that were true, in the EU solidarity works both ways. We have been supported on the no-hard-border issue by the EU in a most impressive fashion, because it's an existential issue for us. We can't then turn around and pursue our own narrow sectional interests regarding a UK trade deal and expect everybody else to say "yeah, that's fine". The EU veto system works precisely because of the expectation that it will be rarely used, and that vetos won't be deployed except for really serious reasons, and only after considering both the national interest and the interests of the Union as a whole. If the EU wanted a trade deal on terms that we were seeking to veto, there'd be some serious conversations about why we needed to veto it. "We spot an opportunity for some competetive advantage over certain UK producers" is a stance that would cost us very dearly.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,261 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Scary stuff. British society is breaking down and really seems to be on the brink of chaos.

    Historically speaking - with some obvious but notable exceptions - I would have considered the UK to be a reliable or consistent country, with predictable attitudes and a deliberate, measured approach. More and more this seems a thing of the past though, and to be more representative of the 'old Britain'.

    Ireland has changed dramitacally in 50 years, but we have been looking forward. Building on the foundations laid by the constitution, we have slowly and surely developed this country, latterly by joining the EEA and EU. We look forward with positivity, busying ourselves in enthusastically tackling consitutional issues, but in an informed, adult and respectful way.

    Britain seems to be the opposite - it is looking backwards and has been for some time. Britain is not what it was and resentment has built up. Where did it go wrong they wonder? How can the country that 'brought civilization' and 'the rule of law' to half the known world - making much of it theirs - have lost such power and influence and respect?

    I watched a lot of Hitchens today - both brothers - and I found one interview particularly interesting. It is Peter Hitchens being interviewed on C-Span, ostensibly to promote his book; 'The Abolition of Britain'. It's from 2000, but is still relevant. Wheras Christopher is of the left and rails against God and the establishment (and most any institution), Peter is very much of the right and for 'the establishment' and all the things you might think of when you think of the British Empire.

    The Aboliton of Britain is ostensibly his account of the end of that 'old Britain' and its transformation into the Britain of today. A lesser Britain in his view, it is a lament. A Britain diminished by a loss of or disfigurement to its values or it's character and how it is at risk of being fully shorn of the qualities that made Britain 'great'.



    While this predates Brexit considerably, I find it interesting as I feel he is elucidating something many Brexiters feel but can't properly articulate. It is like a trauma at the rapid globalisation we have experienced and how this has changed the UK forever. Others like the DUP, for example, cannot accept this either - though in their case they are entirely backward.

    I appreciate some of his points, such as a loss of civility, and the threat to the imagination and the homogenisation of youth posed/ caused by mass culture (something Michael D touched on in his inauguration speech), but I feel he is being overly romantic, overly conservative and a little backward too.

    However, the key element seems to be that the UK has not coped with Globalisation and its concurrent loss of influence. For so long they have been the exporters and purveyors of culture to a global audience. But things have changed so drastically: their influence is greatly reduced and indeed society at home is dreadfully unequal and divided.

    The lack of planning in the integration of immigrant communities has been particuarly disastrous. An unmitigated disaster which seems to now have the Orwellian Hostile Environment prescribed as a cure. A remedy which is badly affecting good and law abiding citizens and is creating a fervile atmosphere. Large sections of society completely disaffected, unsupported and at odds with each other. No go areas and no opportunity areas. Seemingly worsening class divisons. Racial hatred and ghettoisation. A horrifying stabbing/ acid attack epidemic in London.

    Things are very bad indeed and the UK need to come to terms with this, though I don't see that it is possible in the current context and with the crowd on offer. A limping, teetering government sponsored by backwards extremists and half full of semi demented nationalists suffering Post Empire Stress Disorder. An opposition waiting for it to die no matter the cost, refusing to turn off the life support, not even to ease the suffering. It's a bloody sad and disastrous situation and its just going to get worse.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,892 ✭✭✭✭Spook_ie


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    (A) Self-interest, and (b) pressure from the EU.

    Self-interest, because a close EU/UK trade deal is very much in our interests. All forms of Brexit are bad for Ireland, but the softer the Brexit the less bad for us. The UK is one of our major export markets; barriers to trade between the UK and the EU hit us worse than any other country in the EU-27.

    Plus, the better the trade deal the UK gets with the EU, the less pressure there is to make the border harder, and the less incentive the UK has to try to get out of any no-hard-border commitments they have made.

    From every point of view, therefore, a sweet, sweet deal for the UK is very much in our interests, and when the time comes for this negotiation we'll be huge cheerleaders for the UK.

    And, even if none of that were true, in the EU solidarity works both ways. We have been supported on the no-hard-border issue by the EU in a most impressive fashion, because it's an existential issue for us. We can't then turn around and pursue our own narrow sectional interests regarding a UK trade deal and expect everybody else to say "yeah, that's fine". The EU veto system works precisely because of the expectation that it will be rarely used, and that vetos won't be deployed except for really serious reasons, and only after considering both the national interest and the interests of the Union as a whole. If the EU wanted a trade deal on terms that we were seeking to veto, there'd be some serious conversations about why we needed to veto it. "We spot an opportunity for some competetive advantage over certain UK producers" is a stance that would cost us very dearly.

    Yeah, but in the self centred world of dog eat dog, remember we refuse to budge on corporation tax etc. the EU could do nothing but suck it up.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,664 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Spook_ie wrote: »
    Yeah, but in the self centred world of dog eat dog, remember we refuse to budge on corporation tax etc. the EU could do nothing but suck it up.
    The EU could do nothing. EU member states, by contrast, could do quite a lot.

    It's a completely separate issue from Brexit, but the notion that simply by drawing a red line around our corporation tax rules we can insulate ourselves from any effects caused by the stances and actions of others is the Irish version of the Brexiter mindset. It won't survive an encounter with reality.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,892 ✭✭✭✭Spook_ie


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    The EU could do nothing. EU member states, by contrast, could do quite a lot.

    It's a completely separate issue from Brexit, but the notion that simply by drawing a red line around our corporation tax rules we can insulate ourselves from any effects caused by the stances and actions of others is the Irish version of the Brexiter mindset. It won't survive an encounter with reality.

    EU member states could do nothing that was against EU rules.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,664 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Spook_ie wrote: »
    EU member states could do nothing that was against EU rules.
    Yes, but precisely because corporation tax is a competence of the Member States and not the Union, as regards corporation tax they can do quite a lot.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 421 ✭✭Folkstonian


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    Scary stuff. British society is breaking down and really seems to be on the brink of chaos.

    Historically speaking - with some obvious but notable exceptions - I would have considered the UK to be a reliable or consistent country, with predictable attitudes and a deliberate, measured approach. More and more this seems a thing of the past though, and to be more representative of the 'old Britain'.

    Ireland has changed dramitacally in 50 years, but we have been looking forward. Building on the foundations laid by the constitution, we have slowly and surely developed this country, latterly by joining the EEA and EU. We look forward with positivity, busying ourselves in enthusastically tackling consitutional issues, but in an informed, adult and respectful way.

    Britain seems to be the opposite - it is looking backwards and has been for some time. Britain is not what it was and resentment has built up. Where did it go wrong they wonder? How can the country that 'brought civilization' and 'the rule of law' to half the known world - making much of it theirs - have lost such power and influence and respect?

    I watched a lot of Hitchens today - both brothers - and I found one interview particularly interesting. It is Peter Hitchens being interviewed on C-Span, ostensibly to promote his book; 'The Abolition of Britain'. It's from 2000, but is still relevant. Wheras Christopher is of the left and rails against God and the establishment (and most any institution), Peter is very much of the right and for 'the establishment' and all the things you might think of when you think of the British Empire.

    The Aboliton of Britain is ostensibly his account of the end of that 'old Britain' and its transformation into the Britain of today. A lesser Britain in his view, it is a lament. A Britain diminished by a loss of or disfigurement to its values or it's character and how it is at risk of being fully shorn of the qualities that made Britain 'great'.

    While this predates Brexit considerably, I find it interesting as I feel he is elucidating something many Brexiters feel but can't properly articulate. It is like a trauma at the rapid globalisation we have experienced and how this has changed the UK forever. Others like the DUP, for example, cannot accept this either - though in their case they are entirely backward.

    I appreciate some of his points, such as a loss of civility, and the threat to the imagination and the homogenisation of youth posed/ caused by mass culture (something Michael D touched on in his inauguration speech), but I feel he is being overly romantic, overly conservative and a little backward too.

    However, the key element seems to be that the UK has not coped with Globalisation and its concurrent loss of influence. For so long they have been the exporters and purveyors of culture to a global audience. But things have changed so drastically: their influence is greatly reduced and indeed society at home is dreadfully unequal and divided.

    The lack of planning in the integration of immigrant communities has been particuarly disastrous. An unmitigated disaster which seems to now have the Orwellian Hostile Environment prescribed as a cure. A remedy which is badly affecting good and law abiding citizens and is creating a fervile atmosphere. Large sections of society completely disaffected, unsupported and at odds with each other. No go areas and no opportunity areas. Seemingly worsening class divisons. Racial hatred and ghettoisation. A horrifying stabbing/ acid attack epidemic in London.

    Things are very bad indeed and the UK need to come to terms with this, though I don't see that it is possible in the current context and with the crowd on offer. A limping, teetering government sponsored by backwards extremists and half full of semi demented nationalists suffering Post Empire Stress Disorder. An opposition waiting for it to die no matter the cost, refusing to turn off the life support, not even to ease the suffering. It's a bloody sad and disastrous situation and its just going to get worse.

    More waffle from you. Really, just utter garbage. You once again ably demonstrate that know nothing of day to day life in Britain.

    You project bizarre, twisted fantasies of a Britain you hope exists, which bear little likeness to reality.

    Society is, categorically, not on the verge of ‘breaking down’.
    I am back home very frequently and despite all the fireworks on rolling news and social media, life goes on much as it ever did before Brexit became a thing.
    People go to Waitrose, queue at the post office, moan about the weather, have a pint after work on a Friday, and go to the football on a Saturday. Just as they have always done and as they will continue to do.
    It’s easy to be trapped into thinking that chaos and ruin are imminent and a dystopian future is inevitable, because you don’t actually have any frame of reference other than dramatic newspaper articles that would allow you to know what you are talking about

    ‘No go areas’ have been proven categorically to be a myth peddled by the far right, with the police denying their existence and demonstrating that they are a fabrication (unlike in some areas of France, Belgium and Sweden)

    The ‘horrifying stabbing/acid attack epidemic’ sounds like something out of a right wing publication as well. There is a lot of gang related violent crime, too much, but in general for the average person London remains exceptionally safe. The spike in acid throwing incidents has also gone back the other way. You won’t have to wear a set of goggles if you are planning on visiting sometime soon.

    Peter Hitchens is widely known to be an absolute fool. You are in a very small group of people who take his seriously, and an even smaller group if your understanding of british society comes almost exclusively from a near 2 decade old rambling interview of his.
    See his bizarre and contemptible rants about police officers (and the public reaction to him) recently for a good idea of the nonsense he writes and how the people react to him nowadays.

    And just one more (although someone with more time could take a red pen to your drivel and go on for hours), as an ‘exporter and purveyor of culture’ Britain hasn’t decided to go quietly into the night just yet.
    In fact, in 2018 it topped the ‘Soft Power 30’ list of countries, moving upwards and ahead of France which drops into second place. In their own words, when assessing a country’s soft power they look at ‘trade, capital, people, culture, education, and information’.
    They clearly contend that Britain is dealing with globalisation pretty well and hasn’t ‘lost all influence and respect’ as you so claim.
    Maybe you will google it and read up on how and why the contributors came to their conclusions, and maybe let us know why they are so different from your own.

    Of course Britain has problems, inequality of wealth and opportunities is a serious issue. Austerity has gone too far and for too long. The current batch of politicians are a shadow of some of their predecessors. Violent crime is rising (although is significantly off its highest points from this century alone). No easy fixes and no quick ones either, for sure.

    But on the whole, things are fine. So well done for an awful post, drenched in hyperbole and hopeless ignorance.

    Such garbage on this thread in recent weeks has really made me quite introspective about my own sense of identity as a European.
    Something I’d previously held quite dearly and certainly never questioned. I still see that through an economic lense, Brexit is a terrible and harmful endeavour.
    But such is the tripe I see here routinely, maybe the fissures between Britain and Europe on a social level really do run too deep to be repaired, and maybe just the ‘getting on with it’ is the right thing to do for both sides.


This discussion has been closed.
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