Will the housing issue be solved?

mammajamma · 12-11-2018 06:15PM #1

Following on from the thread where yet another all-time record has been smashed in rental prices, does anyone seriously think that this is going to be solved?

Combine the years upon years of the government waffling about "tackling" it, with records being consistently broken, and then to add fuel to the fire, this is the very first "key point" from the national planning framework for 2040...

"Guide the future development of Ireland, taking into account a projected 1 million increase in our population, the need to create 660,000 additional jobs to achieve full employment and a need for 550,000 more homes by 2040"

The great "vision" can be read here http://npf.ie/draft-of-ireland-2040/

I mean, are they literally laughing at us behind closed doors? This is so preposterous its surely a joke?

hatrickpatrick · 12-11-2018 06:19PM

With a radical change of political climate and government, it might. It happened in the 1930s and 40s with Herbert Simms, the only thing stopping it from happening again is right wing political ideology.

BattleCorp · 12-11-2018 06:19PM

It won't be solved in the short-term. I'm fairly sure about that. I have my doubts about it being solved in the future too.

The only solution is a dramatic increase in supply and that isn't easy to do. It takes time and money and a Government with an appetite to get it done (which we don't have).

mammajamma · 12-11-2018 06:26PM

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

With a radical change of political climate and government, it might. It happened in the 1930s and 40s with Herbert Simms, the only thing stopping it from happening again is right wing political ideology.

I agree with the "radical" part. And that's the problem with extremes, who knows what form it will take?!

But I think we can agree that current direction is heading into oblivion!

That said, I think its too easy to blame one side of a political ideology, especially when the waters are so muddied as to what is left and right when it comes to our current government and opposition. If anything, they come across as a monolith, neither left or right, but simply "their own thing"

On that basis, I think its fair to say that no matter what happens, it certainly isn't going to be current political climate that provides answers.

super_furry · 12-11-2018 06:29PM

Things are going to have to change radically in the country if it is to be solved, starting with a moratorium on large scale landlords buying up property.

We're going to have to either get used to European style apartment living and build up or we're going to have to invest heavily in the railways and make commuting from distance a feasible alternative. My brother lives 50-odd miles from his office in London but commutes via rail and is door to door in just over an hour. You couldn't do that here.

mammajamma · 12-11-2018 06:30PM

BattleCorp wrote: »

It won't be solved in the short-term. I'm fairly sure about that. I have my doubts about it being solved in the future too.

The only solution is a dramatic increase in supply and that isn't easy to do. It takes time and money and a Government with an appetite to get it done (which we don't have).

Certainly not short term, not a chance.

But as you say, looking into medium and long term, the government cant keep up with demand as it is, while at the same time having a "vision" of an extra million people in the country?! Whats the point of building anything if they simply aim to always be under capacity?

It crossed the line into a bad joke quite a while ago. Pure nonsense!

mammajamma · 12-11-2018 06:36PM

super_furry wrote: »

Things are going to have to change radically in the country if it is to be solved, starting with a moratorium on large scale landlords buying up property.

We're going to have to either get used to European style apartment living and build up or we're going to have to invest heavily in the railways and make commuting from distance a feasible alternative. My brother lives 50-odd miles from his office in London but commutes via rail and is door to door in just over an hour. You couldn't do that here.

I'll add to that moratorium, that outside investors not be allowed buy irish property, or at least with a hefty tax added on, a la Toronto and the Chinese (not that that is enough)

It comes across as an impossibility, a race that has been set up to never be won.

Say we get used to living in smaller and more cramped consitions like apartments, but theres still more and more people arriving into the country. WHats next? Even smaller living spaces?

Maybe shared accommodation? Maybe multiple families living in the one building?

I hink we tried tenements before, and we didn't like it!

As for improving and enabling massive commutes, nobody wants that either. Its all unsustainable, every bit, and the government has a bloody cheek to propose massive population increase while being completely and utterly incompetent even at this point.

pablohoney87 · 12-11-2018 06:36PM

mammajamma wrote: »

Certainly not short term, not a chance.

But as you say, looking into medium and long term, the government cant keep up with demand as it is, while at the same time having a "vision" of an extra million people in the country?! Whats the point of building anything if they simply aim to always be under capacity?

It crossed the line into a bad joke quite a while ago. Pure nonsense!

Unless governments are more transparent with these "long term" plans they arent worth a bollix.

Every plan is just an election away from being scrapped and started from scratch.

mammajamma · 12-11-2018 06:41PM

pablohoney87 wrote: »

Unless governments are more transparent with these "long term" plans they arent worth a bollix.

Every plan is just an election away from being scrapped and started from scratch.

That's what I don't get! I can understand any government blowing smoke up arses, but to blatantly advertise their 2040 plan, in THIS environment...

Is it a joke?!

Why not advertise a national plan where they want us all to live underground like rats? Its just as appealing.

Shenshen · 12-11-2018 06:50PM

Eventually, all crises are resolved.
In this case, there is no short-term solution. Any measures put in place now would take years to show any effect.
And it would mean that politicians would have to step up and acknowledge that private builds are contributing to the problem, not the solution. The solution will take government investment (and a rise in taxes alongside, to finance it), and a plan for longer that a single government term.
Given that the current budget has ridiculously little in the way of government investment into anything at all, in favour of handing money back to the public rather than providing services for society, I seriously doubt that there will be any politician anytime soon who would step up to the post.

So, this leaves a long-term solution. Very long term. Something like a reduction of the number of people living and working in Ireland, for example, as it becomes unaffordable.

mammajamma · 12-11-2018 06:57PM

Shenshen wrote: »

Eventually, all crises are resolved.
In this case, there is no short-term solution. Any measures put in place now would take years to show any effect.
And it would mean that politicians would have to step up and acknowledge that private builds are contributing to the problem, not the solution. The solution will take government investment (and a rise in taxes alongside, to finance it), and a plan for longer that a single government term.
Given that the current budget has ridiculously little in the way of government investment into anything at all, in favour of handing money back to the public rather than providing services for society, I seriously doubt that there will be any politician anytime soon who would step up to the post.

So, this leaves a long-term solution. Very long term. Something like a reduction of the number of people living and working in Ireland, for example, as it becomes unaffordable.[/QUOTE]

Precisely! If it were only the housing crisis as it stands, we'd all be left scratching our heads anyway.

But its the combination of that, PLUS another million people? I just cant get my head wrapped around the idiocy of it all.

An analogy. There is a crisis with healthcare. The government willingly admits that its vision is to close 80% of all clinics and hospitals within 20 years...!!!!!

What?!

kneemos · 12-11-2018 07:04PM

mammajamma wrote: »

Certainly not short term, not a chance.

But as you say, looking into medium and long term, the government cant keep up with demand as it is, while at the same time having a "vision" of an extra million people in the country?! Whats the point of building anything if they simply aim to always be under capacity?

It crossed the line into a bad joke quite a while ago. Pure nonsense!

What exactly is the Government supposed to do about the housing crisis?
Apart from commission a few affordable housing projects I have no idea.

Idbatterim · 12-11-2018 07:05PM

Is the op a joke? Do you think it will be solved? How long have you lived here ? Those morons running the place couldn’t find their way out of a paper bag. Then they have a vested interest in prices rising. Even as homeowners they want prices to rise , as if they have to be landlords!!!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XL3n59wC8kk

Wheeliebin30 · 12-11-2018 07:09PM

We don’t have the money to build 100s of thousands of social houses.

See our budget?

2.5 billion a year paying back our bailout.

There isn’t much left to do anything with after that.

You can thank FF for that.

Who will be probably voted back in next election.

Idbatterim · 12-11-2018 07:13PM

kneemos wrote: »

What exactly is the Government supposed to do about the housing crisis?
Apart from commission a few affordable housing projects I have no idea.

Reduce building costs for apartments, the build cost per square meter is ridiculous! They also cream off a fortune on the build cost in vat and levies. Ultimately though, the developer will always charge what the market will bare. The only way they will solve it is higher density , lower construction costs and universal public housing ..

They tinker around the edges to make it look like they are doing something. Take action into your own hands and put up a log cabin if you can. If you’re waiting for our shower of morons to sort things out... well lol! I’ve got some magic beans to sell.

A mate was given a price of seven k for supply and install of a 20 sq m log cabin including insulation, gutters, timber frame and block foundation in Dublin. Didn’t include water or sewage electric etc.

pablohoney87 · 12-11-2018 07:14PM

Shenshen wrote: »

Eventually, all crises are resolved.
In this case, there is no short-term solution. Any measures put in place now would take years to show any effect.
And it would mean that politicians would have to step up and acknowledge that private builds are contributing to the problem, not the solution. The solution will take government investment (and a rise in taxes alongside, to finance it), and a plan for longer that a single government term.
Given that the current budget has ridiculously little in the way of government investment into anything at all, in favour of handing money back to the public rather than providing services for society, I seriously doubt that there will be any politician anytime soon who would step up to the post.

So, this leaves a long-term solution. Very long term. Something like a reduction of the number of people living and working in Ireland, for example, as it becomes unaffordable.

I'm not so sure that is really a factor though

We have still not reached the population of the country before the potato famine and unemployment is fairly low. The cost of building seems to be the big problem while wages are still stagnant.

My parents bought their house in the 80s for about twice my dads salary at the time. Now people are buying houses for 3.5 times a couples combined salaries at rates of 4%. All this while wages are not increasing for the last 10 years.

Only solution is for the government to step in where the private sector has failed, commission the building or form a housing construction dept similar to the health service and standardize the prices of these houses on an annual basis.

Regulate it in some way so that these properties cannot be let out. You either live there or you sell it. I'm no fan of communism but when it comes to things like healthcare, defence and affordable housing the government must step in.

kneemos · 12-11-2018 07:15PM

Idbatterim wrote: »

Reduce building costs for apartments, the build cost per square meter is ridiculous! They also cream off a fortune on the build cost in vat and levies. Ultimately though, the developer will always charge what the market will bare. The only way they will solve it is higher density , lower construction costs and universal public housing ..

They tinker around the edges to make it look like they are doing something. Take action into your own hands and put up a log cabin if you can. If you’re waiting for our shower of morons to sort things out... well lol! I’ve got some magic beans to sell.

A mate was given a price of seven k for supply and install of a 20 sq m log cabin including insulation, gutters, timber frame and block foundation in Dublin. Didn’t include water or sewage electric etc.

How do they reduce building costs? The maprket price will stay the same whatever the builder pays in VAT.

Idbatterim · 12-11-2018 07:16PM

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

We don’t have the money to build 100s of thousands of social houses.

See our budget?

2.5 billion a year paying back our bailout.

There isn’t much left to do anything with after that.

You can thank FF for that.

Who will be probably voted back in next election.

Fg would have done the same as fg and I voted for them years ago. They are all talk, as this thread highlights. Their total incompetence regarding the economy will result in another recession here. They increased spending v income tax cuts at a ratio of 19/1 this budget. I’d say relatively the idiocy of their actions now are worse than ff during the boom. The big difference this time is Europe and the banks have majorly clamped down on the reckless lending ...

Idbatterim · 12-11-2018 07:18PM

kneemos wrote: »

How do they reduce building costs? The maprket price will stay the same whatever the builder pays in VAT.

Reduce or abolish dual aspect requirements, would significantly cut build costs. I’d also be looking into lift core ratio and parking costs ...

Idbatterim · 12-11-2018 07:20PM

“Only solution is for the government to step in where the private sector has failed, commission the building or form a housing construction dept similar to the health service and standardize the prices of these houses on an annual basis.”

You’re listening to the Irish media too much ! How has the private sector failed?! You realise their aim is profit maximisation? They are doing fantastic! The morons in government have failed or things are going exactly according to plan , whatever viewpoint you have ...

kneemos · 12-11-2018 07:21PM

Idbatterim wrote: »

Reduce or abolish dual aspect requirements, would significantly cut build costs. I’d also be looking into lift core ratio and parking costs ...

Wouldn't be a fan of reducing quality for a negligible short term gain.

pablohoney87 · 12-11-2018 07:26PM

Idbatterim wrote: »

“Only solution is for the government to step in where the private sector has failed, commission the building or form a housing construction dept similar to the health service and standardize the prices of these houses on an annual basis.”

You’re listening to the Irish media too much ! How has the private sector failed?! You realise their aim is profit maximisation? They are doing fantastic! The morons in government have failed or things are going exactly according to plan , whatever viewpoint you have ...

I am talking solely in their ability to deliver affordable housing to the market.

The private sector has no interest in delivering affordable housing yet the government is tied to this dream that the market will solve itself when in reality housing is just swallowed up by landlords and rented to people who would be paying less on their mortgage than on rent.

So if the task at hand is to deliver affordable housing, yes the private market has failed. I never said that was their goal though. If anything the housing crisis is great for the property business. Bad for the people though. Much like how a purely private healhcare system would he great for hospitals, horrible for the people.

mammajamma · 12-11-2018 07:26PM

To be perfectly honest, I don't see how this can possibly be solved within current framework.

In my opinion, one of two things will happen. The entire country is going to be economically scuppered in the near future, thereby providing room to start over. Or else a new type of government is going to come along and deal with the problem within a new framework. Maybe they are the same thing!

Or in other words, something big is coming down the road, not only in terms of housing.

12-11-2018 07:26PM

whats solved mean

will the "ten thousand" ""'homeless"" all get permanently housed anytime soon?

no

will the however many more hundred thousand "unable to meet their own housing need" all get permanently housed anytime soon?

no

if you buy the above figures and believe that the state/market should be based around reacting to them then it will never be solved

if you mean that the majority of lower middle class and up with a reasonable savings history and stable employment might aspire to ownership on reasonable terms within say the next decade, its a big ask but doable

Spanish Eyes · 12-11-2018 07:27PM

The only solution, over time, is to weaken the strength of Dublin as the hub of everything.

The former General Sec at DFinance said it a few years ago, I am sorry his name escapes me, (Moran maybe) but he mentioned Limerick (well he would he's from there!), but his thoughts were good.

Dublin is creaking at the seams. That is because a lot of people want to live and work there, it is the capital, so there we are.

Anyway I think another crash will sort it out, not that I want that to happen at all, but short of Government policy incentivising industries outside of Dublin near other Airports and such, it will only get worse.

And the lack of vision regarding public transport in Dublin is also an issue, possibly for another thread, but it does impact on people's quality of life hugely too.

12-11-2018 07:31PM

a decent rail network and the tech infrastructure to work from home down the country certainly have places in any conversation

Idbatterim · 12-11-2018 07:33PM

kneemos wrote: »

Wouldn't be a fan of reducing quality for a negligible short term gain.

Salaries are stagnant, you’ll lose over half of any pay rise etc over 34,000 ish. The masses in Dublin just can’t afford a basic roof over their head. The government needs to change how things are done. This thread is going to just go around in circles. They need to reduce the cost of building , anything else is fantasy stuff ! Also Dublin bursting at the “seems “ there’s farmland in the m50 circle Ffs!

Spanish Eyes · 12-11-2018 07:40PM

Idbatterim wrote: »

Salaries are stagnant, you’ll lose over half of any pay rise etc over 34,000 ish. The masses in Dublin just can’t afford a basic roof over their head. The government needs to change how things are done. This thread is going to just go around in circles. They need to reduce the cost of building , anything else is fantasy stuff ! Also Dublin bursting at the “seems “ there’s farmland in the m50 circle Ffs!

Yes there is, but how does one get to the city, or the periphery without a car these days. And factor in kids school/childcare.

Commuting hell doesn't mean you are doing a trip from Tullamore/Mullingar or the likes to the Shmoke every day.They are possible getting to Dublin quicker on the train than many a person in Dublin loading up their cars with two or three kids, drop off to creche, and then drive to work.

Not sustainable.

pablohoney87 · 12-11-2018 07:41PM

Idbatterim wrote: »

Salaries are stagnant, you’ll lose over half of any pay rise etc over 34,000 ish. The masses in Dublin just can’t afford a basic roof over their head. The government needs to change how things are done. This thread is going to just go around in circles. They need to reduce the cost of building , anything else is fantasy stuff ! Also Dublin bursting at the “seems “ there’s farmland in the m50 circle Ffs!

How can you reduce cost of buildig though? Land is set by supply and demand. Raw materials are not going to come down in cost. Labour? Doubt it. Regulations? Very much could end up with another pyrite debacle.

Is high rise the only solution?

Spanish Eyes · 12-11-2018 07:44PM

For a start, try getting from say Ashbourne to Tallaght without a car.

There are so many other examples I get weary now.

Sir Oxman · 12-11-2018 07:44PM

https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/heritage/remembering-herbert-simms-the-man-who-rebuilt-dublin-1.3447370?fbclid=IwAR2PWMwZSgr-EZZgOGlU967ZMKZFvEfUtdXl7rjOZblE-2uy8qGmfsyneYQ

Will the housing issue be solved?

I think the housing/rent situation will be solved within our lifetimes? 13 votes

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