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Property Market 2018

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    #2522
    Rew
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,679 Mod ✭✭✭✭Rew


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Dare I say it but multi-national job losses would result in laid off workers returning to their countries for which they have their citizenship.

    Even if that were true the blast radius would be massive, many small third parties exist to service those multi-nationals.


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    #2523
    Interested Observer
    Registered Users Posts: 13,007 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Dare I say it but multi-national job losses would result in laid off workers returning to their countries for which they have their citizenship.

    What percentage of the working population do you reckon are employed at MNCs and do you think Google are going to be the first to suffer if a recession hits? Did your theory hold up in 2010 etc? I really don't think so.


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    #2524
    JDD
    Registered Users Posts: 1,578 ✭✭✭JDD


    So, all the foreign workers would return home, which would free up all those apartments for rent and those houses they were buying, which will increase supply. And then they wouldn't be spending all the money they were spending, so all the third party service providers will lay off people too, so that will dampen down demand for good and services.

    Except now, with a volatile employment market, none of the banks will give out mortgages. So no one will be able to afford these cheaper houses.

    And with all the people out of work, and lesser tax returns, your tax liability will go up. And your employer will see this as a chance to cut your salary or refuse to give you a bonus. So you wouldn't be able to afford a mortgage, or to rent a nicer apartment.

    Fabulous plan. I'll keep the Brazilians/Poles/Italians/Nigerians thanks.


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    #2525
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »
    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Dare I say it but multi-national job losses would result in laid off workers returning to their countries for which they have their citizenship.
    Because everyone employed in a multinational is from another country? I work in a massive multinational and I'd estimate that at least 90 % of the staff are native Irish.
    Well I know people in Google, Facebook and Smartbox and this is what they have told me so of course it is not entirely accurate to generalise but nonetheless these companies are quite pick and I would assume a decent sample to make a statement that a lot of tech multinationals are very much majority staffed by non-Irish.
    JDD wrote: »
    So, all the foreign workers would return home, which would free up all those apartments for rent and those houses they were buying, which will increase supply. And then they wouldn't be spending all the money they were spending, so all the third party service providers will lay off people too, so that will dampen down demand for good and services.

    Except now, with a volatile employment market, none of the banks will give out mortgages. So no one will be able to afford these cheaper houses.

    And with all the people out of work, and lesser tax returns, your tax liability will go up. And your employer will see this as a chance to cut your salary or refuse to give you a bonus. So you wouldn't be able to afford a mortgage, or to rent a nicer apartment.

    Fabulous plan. I'll keep the Brazilians/Poles/Italians/Nigerians thanks.

    We are not in a strong econimic position right now, the economy is at breaking point with the housing crisis and cost of utilities destroying salaries for workers. It is not sustainable for net salaries to get lower each year (and that includes paltry tax cuts). A correction is required to put the brakes on the unsustainable hammering of workers which is happening in Ireland.
    Assetbacked wrote: »
    donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »
    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Dare I say it but multi-national job losses would result in laid off workers returning to their countries for which they have their citizenship.
    Because everyone employed in a multinational is from another country? I work in a massive multinational and I'd estimate that at least 90 % of the staff are native Irish.
    Well I know people in Google, Facebook and Smartbox and this is what they have told me so of course it is not entirely accurate to generalise but nonetheless these companies are quite pick and I would assume a decent sample to make a statement that a lot of tech multinationals are very much majority staffed by non-Irish.
    JDD wrote: »
    So, all the foreign workers would return home, which would free up all those apartments for rent and those houses they were buying, which will increase supply. And then they wouldn't be spending all the money they were spending, so all the third party service providers will lay off people too, so that will dampen down demand for good and services.

    Except now, with a volatile employment market, none of the banks will give out mortgages. So no one will be able to afford these cheaper houses.

    And with all the people out of work, and lesser tax returns, your tax liability will go up. And your employer will see this as a chance to cut your salary or refuse to give you a bonus. So you wouldn't be able to afford a mortgage, or to rent a nicer apartment.

    Fabulous plan. I'll keep the Brazilians/Poles/Italians/Nigerians thanks.

    We are not in a strong econimic position right now, the economy is at breaking point with the housing crisis and cost of utilities destroying salaries for workers. It is not sustainable for net salaries to get lower each year (and that includes paltry tax cuts). A correction is required to put the brakes on the unsustainable hammering of workers which is happening in Ireland.


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    #2526
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Apologies for the strange way those posts appeared - the boards website is struggling to function the past week on mobiles.


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    #2527
    Interested Observer
    Registered Users Posts: 13,007 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Apologies for the strange way those posts appeared - the boards website is struggling to function the past week on mobiles.

    Oddly formatted posts are the least of your problems.


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    #2528
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,507 ✭✭✭Villa05


    I can see where the desire for a recession is coming from. For many working people there quality of life improved as costs reduced significantly during the last recession most notably rent, fuel and energy eating out etc

    The problem with Ireland is that any economic recovery benefits very few people. The gains are eaten up by protected sectors and higher costs passed on to the general public

    The result being that economic recovery is negative for a growing significant portion of the Irish public. Mainly working, renting, commuters


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    #2529
    RayCun
    Registered Users Posts: 15,704 ✭✭✭✭RayCun


    Villa05 wrote: »
    I can see where the desire for a recession is coming from. For many working people there quality of life improved as costs reduced significantly during the last recession most notably rent, fuel and energy eating out etc

    That's the thing. If you still had a good job, then yes, cost of living went down.
    If you lost your job, or couldn't get a job, or were stuck in a crappy job, it didn't matter that the cost of living was lower because your income was also lower.


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    #2530
    phunkadelic
    Registered Users Posts: 940 ✭✭✭phunkadelic


    It is a fair point about the large tech multinationals employing mostly non-Irish people. I believe Google has less than 15% Irish. Most of the jobs are localisation, marketing and sales related and they require teams for each European language.
    I think these companies are having a big impact on house prices indirectly.
    They pay so little corporation tax, that they can afford to pay staff extra. These staff are mostly here temporarily, 5 years max. Very few intend to settle in Ireland for good. So they will rent for the full period of time they are here.
    Their higher wages mean they can afford the extortionate rents in Dublin.
    I'm not blaming 'de fordiners', and I am generalising, but all of the above is true.

    Higher rents for everyone means more people want to get out of renting and into buying. More demand for buying for the static low supply = higher prices.


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    #2531
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,507 ✭✭✭Villa05


    RayCun wrote:
    That's the thing. If you still had a good job, then yes, cost of living went down. If you lost your job, or couldn't get a job, or were stuck in a crappy job, it didn't matter that the cost of living was lower because your income was also lower.


    Most of the jobs that were lost in the last recession were probably going anyway,
    Bloated construction sector
    Legacy multinationals in manufacturing
    Bloated public service


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    #2532
    RayCun
    Registered Users Posts: 15,704 ✭✭✭✭RayCun


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Most of the jobs that were lost in the last recession were probably going anyway,
    Bloated construction sector
    Legacy multinationals in manufacturing
    Bloated public service

    That's just nonsense.

    Say 100 people lose their jobs in the construction sector.

    That's 100 people who are now on the dole, rather than paying income tax. Which means less money to spend on education, health, transport.

    100 people who are spending less on groceries, in the pub, in the bookies, in the chemist, in the barbers, in the cinema, on their cars, on clothes.
    That means shops closing, other businesses cutting back, and a ripple effect that continues through the economy.


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    #2533
    phunkadelic
    Registered Users Posts: 940 ✭✭✭phunkadelic


    RayCun wrote: »
    That's just nonsense.

    Say 100 people lose their jobs in the construction sector.

    That's 100 people who are now on the dole, rather than paying income tax. Which means less money to spend on education, health, transport.

    100 people who are spending less on groceries, in the pub, in the bookies, in the chemist, in the barbers, in the cinema, on their cars, on clothes.
    That means shops closing, other businesses cutting back, and a ripple effect that continues through the economy.
    Indeed, but for those who don't lose their job, it also means lower house prices, lower rent, lower hotels prices. Less gouging by businesses in general.


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    #2534
    Mickiemcfist
    Registered Users Posts: 1,585 ✭✭✭Mickiemcfist


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Most of the jobs that were lost in the last recession were probably going anyway,
    Bloated public service

    Did the Government lay off public servants? If so, they didn't do enough of it.


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    #2535
    RayCun
    Registered Users Posts: 15,704 ✭✭✭✭RayCun


    phunkadelic wrote: »
    Indeed, but for those who don't lose their job, it also means lower house prices, lower rent, lower hotels prices. Less gouging by businesses in general.

    'Gouging' when someone else does it.
    'Unfortunately forced to raise prices to deal with higher costs' when you do it.

    And yeah, as I said above, if you have a secure, well-paying job (or other fixed income) then you'll be better off when the cost of living falls. The country in general, not so much.


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    #2536
    Interested Observer
    Registered Users Posts: 13,007 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    phunkadelic wrote: »
    Indeed, but for those who don't lose their job, it also means lower house prices, lower rent, lower hotels prices. Less gouging by businesses in general.


    Ah yeah that's grand. God be with the days of a few hundred thousand extra people being jobless so we can save a few bob on a hotel.


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    #2537
    phunkadelic
    Registered Users Posts: 940 ✭✭✭phunkadelic


    RayCun wrote: »
    'Gouging' when someone else does it.
    'Unfortunately forced to raise prices to deal with higher costs' when you do it.

    And yeah, as I said above, if you have a secure, well-paying job (or other fixed income) then you'll be better off when the cost of living falls. The country in general, not so much.
    Have you seen the latest hotel prices in thie country? You won't get a room in a kippy town at the weekend for less than €150. Dublin is different level again. That is definite gouging.


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    #2538
    phunkadelic
    Registered Users Posts: 940 ✭✭✭phunkadelic


    Interested Observer wrote: »
    Ah yeah that's grand. God be with the days of a few hundred thousand extra people being jobless so we can save a few bob on a hotel.
    It's not just hotels. It's rent (you could haggle a 1bed down in Dublin to €900 in 2011). It's also energy bills, insurance. Everything has been going up astronomically in the so called boom we are experiencing.


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    #2539
    RayCun
    Registered Users Posts: 15,704 ✭✭✭✭RayCun


    phunkadelic wrote: »
    Have you seen the latest hotel prices in thie country? You won't get a room in a kippy town at the weekend for less than €150. Dublin is different level again. That is definite gouging.

    I don't know what business you're in, but do you make a habit of charging below the market price for what you sell?


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    #2540
    zl1whqvjs75cdy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭zl1whqvjs75cdy


    phunkadelic wrote: »
    It's not just hotels. It's rent (you could haggle a 1bed down in Dublin to €900 in 2011). It's also energy bills, insurance. Everything has been going up astronomically in the so called boom we are experiencing.

    So get a better job. If the country is booming it should be easy


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    #2541
    Mickiemcfist
    Registered Users Posts: 1,585 ✭✭✭Mickiemcfist


    I think we can all agree that average wages need to increase at or above the level of inflation, otherwise we have a disproportionate benefit of the boom going to a narrow section of society. However, another recession is certainly the wrong way to go about it.


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    #2542
    phunkadelic
    Registered Users Posts: 940 ✭✭✭phunkadelic


    donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »
    So get a better job. If the country is booming it should be easy
    I'm personally grand. But wages are static and prices on everything are going in one direction only. Add more indirect taxation and childcare costs to the mix too.


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    #2543
    RayCun
    Registered Users Posts: 15,704 ✭✭✭✭RayCun


    phunkadelic wrote: »
    It's not just hotels. It's rent (you could haggle a 1bed down in Dublin to €900 in 2011). It's also energy bills, insurance. Everything has been going up astronomically in the so called boom we are experiencing.

    Rent is high because there are a lot of people who want to rent in Dublin.
    There are a lot of people who want to rent in Dublin because there are a lot of people working in Dublin.
    Same for many other goods. Prices are high because demand is high because people have money because people are working. Prices are also high because the cost of other things has gone up and they feed into the price.
    Lots of people working = a boom
    I don't know what "so called boom" you're talking about.

    (And no, this isn't an unalloyed good thing. More accommodation needs to be built, public transport needs to improve so people can work in the city while living further away, lots of things could be improved)


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    #2544
    Interested Observer
    Registered Users Posts: 13,007 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    phunkadelic wrote: »
    I'm personally grand. But wages are static and prices on everything are going in one direction only. Add more indirect taxation and childcare costs to the mix too.

    What's your source for wages being static?

    Edit - and that stuff below about jobs added to the economy being low quality or temporary.


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    #2545
    phunkadelic
    Registered Users Posts: 940 ✭✭✭phunkadelic


    RayCun wrote: »
    Rent is high because there are a lot of people who want to rent in Dublin.
    There are a lot of people who want to rent in Dublin because there are a lot of people working in Dublin.
    Same for many other goods. Prices are high because demand is high because people have money because people are working. Prices are also high because the cost of other things has gone up and they feed into the price.
    Lots of people working = a boom
    I don't know what "so called boom" you're talking about.

    (And no, this isn't an unalloyed good thing. More accommodation needs to be built, public transport needs to improve so people can work in the city while living further away, lots of things could be improved)
    Indeed I know the basic reasons. When I say 'so called boom', I mean very few are seeing any real positive gains from it.
    Employment may be higher but there is a fair amount of government spin and the jobs are often lower quality or temporary insecure jobs.


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    #2546
    JDD
    Registered Users Posts: 1,578 ✭✭✭JDD


    The only secure jobs in a recession are in the public service, and that just means you won't lose your job, but your salary is certainly subject to a pay cut in a recession. Not everyone has a public service job.

    Every other sector, be it lawyers, doctors, people in financial services, hairdressers, hospitality, IT, manufacturing, construction, everybody's job is at risk. The knock on mental health effects of losing your job is phenomenal. I actually find someone wishing for a recession as offensive, just so they can have a reasonably priced weekend away or rent an apartment closer to town. You can be sure they kept their job over the past ten years.

    I also find it suspicious that they first thing they think of is that the fordiners will go home.

    Having said that, the fact that the cost of living is too high as compared to wages is a problem, for sure. And raising wages isn't the solution. We need to look at what the big ticket items are that people have no choice but to pay for i.e. rent, mortgage, childcare and try and get those prices down. That means upping supply as you can't decrease demand. Make inroads into the big ticket items and people will have more money in their pockets.


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    #2547
    Pussyhands
    Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Interested Observer wrote: »
    Ah yeah that's grand. God be with the days of a few hundred thousand extra people being jobless so we can save a few bob on a hotel.

    You're thinking that every recession is on the level of 2008. 2008 was a once in a generation event.


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    #2548
    Pussyhands
    Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    JDD wrote: »
    The only secure jobs in a recession are in the public service, and that just means you won't lose your job, but your salary is certainly subject to a pay cut in a recession. Not everyone has a public service job.

    Every other sector, be it lawyers, doctors, people in financial services, hairdressers, hospitality, IT, manufacturing, construction, everybody's job is at risk. The knock on mental health effects of losing your job is phenomenal. I actually find someone wishing for a recession as offensive, just so they can have a reasonably priced weekend away or rent an apartment closer to town. You can be sure they kept their job over the past ten years.

    I also find it suspicious that they first thing they think of is that the fordiners will go home.

    Having said that, the fact that the cost of living is too high as compared to wages is a problem, for sure. And raising wages isn't the solution. We need to look at what the big ticket items are that people have no choice but to pay for i.e. rent, mortgage, childcare and try and get those prices down. That means upping supply as you can't decrease demand. Make inroads into the big ticket items and people will have more money in their pockets.

    Even in the great recession we had 86 out of every 100 people working. That's a lot of people.


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    #2549
    JDD
    Registered Users Posts: 1,578 ✭✭✭JDD


    Even in the great recession we had 86 out of every 100 people working. That's a lot of people.

    14% unemployment only means 14% on the dole at any one time. How many people got laid off and had to take a lower paying job? Or a job that was farther away from their families? How many emigrated? What is the percentage of people who were out of work at any stage between 2007 and 2015? Higher than 14% I'd wager.


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    #2550
    JDD
    Registered Users Posts: 1,578 ✭✭✭JDD


    The answer isn't a recession.

    The answer is moving quickly to prevent sectors of the market becoming overheated. As far as I can see, the only public organisation that have done anything to try and make inroads into that was the Central Bank, and that was against the wishes of the government.

    The answer is, unfortunately, government intervention into the private sector. There is literally no other way to avoid the constant boom bust cycle.


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    #2551
    RayCun
    Registered Users Posts: 15,704 ✭✭✭✭RayCun


    Pussyhands wrote: »
    Even in the great recession we had 86 out of every 100 people working. That's a lot of people.

    The 100 people isn't static. If people retire early, stay in school longer, are out of work with disability, are supported by spouses etc, they aren't counted as part of the workforce. They aren't among the 14 people signing on. But when jobs are available they go out to work.


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