Property Market 2018

Bluefoam

Marius34 wrote: »

The_Conductor wrote: »

December 31st 2017 Stats:

Net household assets stood at €726.8bn the equivalent of €151,657 per head.

Household net worth has risen by 72pc since its lowest level of €430bn in the second quarter of 2012, mainly due to rising housing values.

In overall terms, household debt fell by €1.37bn to €140.5bn in 2017

Note- the vast majority of net household assets- relate to residential property- and the recovery in net asset value- mirrors the recovery in the Irish property market (we are now at approx 78% of peak for apartments and 82% of peak for freehold dwellings in the greater Dublin area- keeping in mind the peak was March 2007- and not when the CSO's graphs start (two years earlier).

Source: Central Bank

All I wanted to say the fact that US debt is mainly internal (70%). and that Ireland External debt (2.2T) is higher than US debt to China (1.2T), nothing more.
https://www.indexmundi.com/ireland/debt_external.html

I so you're making your point by comparing things that don't relate, like apples and oranges?

OwlsZat

Marius34 wrote: »

All I wanted to say the fact that US debt is mainly internal (70%). and that Ireland External debt (2.2T) is higher than US debt to China (1.2T), nothing more.
https://www.indexmundi.com/ireland/debt_external.html

Thanks for sharing this. The year by year chart makes for some seriously grim reading.

Sainty506

Hi,

Would anyone know how to find out who is the registered owner of common areas of an apartment block. Trying to find out if the developer has transferred ownership to a Management company.

Thanks

hmmm

OwlsZat wrote: »

Thanks for sharing this. The year by year chart makes for some seriously grim reading.

Those figures are scare-mongering, it does not take into account Ireland's stock of international assets.

A better figure which takes account of both is this
https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/balanceofpayments/internationalinvestmentpositionandexternaldebt/

There's a lot of debt and assets held by financial institutions and other large multinationals which is largely meaningless if taken on their own.

OwlsZat

hmmm wrote: »

Those figures are scare-mongering, it does not take into account Ireland's stock of international assets.

A better figure which takes account of both is this
https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/balanceofpayments/internationalinvestmentpositionandexternaldebt/

There's a lot of debt and assets held by financial institutions and other large multinationals which is largely meaningless if taken on their own.

The graph might look better on the face of it but we aren't even reducing debt. Hard to know how Ireland balances finances in a global downshift.

handlemaster

Sainty506 wrote: »

Hi,

Would anyone know how to find out who is the registered owner of common areas of an apartment block. Trying to find out if the developer has transferred ownership to a Management company.

Thanks

Best to set up a New thread. This one is about the property market

Zenify

Seeing a few 3 bed semis go up in south Dublin for around 440k, roughly 40k less than what I would have seen for similar property at start of year. Not sure what they are actually going to sell for though.

kala85

Analysis from today's Irish Times

Mortgage lending is stalling. Having grown very strongly over the past couple of years, the latest figures show that growth in new loan approvals has now slowed sharply. Why is this happening? And what does it mean for the market? It seems a number of factors are in play including the impact of bank lending rules, the state of the market and affordability for buyers. The key issue is whether we are seeing a temporary slowing in mortgage borrowing or something more fundamental.

<SNIP>

Mod Note

Please don't cut & paste entire articles.

freeze4real

Most posts that I have seen seem to highlight prices arround the 600/700k mark as being overpriced. But there are some apartments & houses arround the 250/300k mark that are way overpriced.


Has anyone actually worked it out on an excel sheet renting vs buying taking into account annual rent, bills vs purchasing. A total breakdown. Also a scenario analysis as to house prices dropping 10%/15%. Also what would be the gain/loss if you were to sell the house at a certain point intime net of fees.

I have one which I sourced from the Internet.

thencamethen

freeze4real wrote: »

Most posts that I have seen seem to highlight prices arround the 600/700k mark as being overpriced. But there are some apartments & houses arround the 250/300k mark that are way overpriced.


Has anyone actually worked it out on an excel sheet renting vs buying taking into account annual rent, bills vs purchasing. A total breakdown. Also a scenario analysis as to house prices dropping 10%/15%. Also what would be the gain/loss if you were to sell the house at a certain point intime net of fees.

I have one which I sourced from the Internet.

Real example:

2 bed apartment cost - 237500e
20% deposit - 47500e
loan - 190000e
interest rate 3% ~ 400e/month
monthly repayment - 750e

LPT/Life insurance - 50e/month (300pa + 300pa)
Management fee - 100e/month (1200pa)

Cost to buy ~ 7500e
Cost to sell ~ 7500e

Overall - 1300e/month + 15k to buy/sell

Same apartment rental - 1500-1900e/month


This is a 2 bed apt in Artane. If you rent 1 room for 650e/month you'll pay 650e/month (1300-650). To cover buy/sell costs you'll need to rent additional room for around 2 years. Hopefully property price will not go down. If so - you're loosing money.

If you share a rental apartment it will cost from 750 to 950 euro/month.

So the shortest term for buying 250k property is 2 years, it will save 1200-2400 euro/pa if the the property price will not decrease.

ElektroToad

Sorry if this has come up before but I just saw an article on Irish Times that nearly 400 apartments (that apparently have yet to be even built) in Clongriffin were recently acquired by a UK based investment company for use as rentals.

I've also noticed that several other new apartment schemes around Dublin were also bought outright by such investors before they even went to market.

Surely with the current state of housing there should be some form of restrictions placed on institutional landlords from instantly snapping up what little supply comes to the market for use a rental stock???

For example I don't particular need/want to buy a 3-bed semi-D and feel that a 2-bed apartment would suit my needs perfectly fine. But if this trend continues it seems that I will have no choice but to keep saving for a larger deposit and look for a house at this rate? :rolleyes:

engiweirdo

ElektroToad wrote: »

Sorry if this has come up before but I just saw an article on Irish Times that nearly 400 apartments (that apparently have yet to be even built) in Clongriffin were recently acquired by a UK based investment company for use as rentals.

I've also noticed that several other new apartment schemes around Dublin were also bought outright by such investors before they even went to market.

Surely with the current state of housing there should be some form of restrictions placed on institutional landlords from instantly snapping up what little supply comes to the market for use a rental stock???

For example I don't particular need/want to buy a 3-bed semi-D and feel that a 2-bed apartment would suit my needs perfectly fine. But if this trend continues it seems that I will have no choice but to keep saving for a larger deposit and look for a house at this rate? :rolleyes:

But the only way to keep the price of that house rising is to restrict all other avenues of supply and create funnels toward the >€400k and rising 3 bed semis. You think this happens by accident? How's Noonans portfolio doing these days I wonder.

utmbuilder

Wanderer78 wrote: »

i think you re spot on here, we re all slowly turning into japans, something has to change, you d have to wonder what the breaking point will be!

I dont care what happens im not going back to drinking prosecco, its moet all the way or no way.

bri007

Moët wow your posh, I thought we were posh drinking cider from a 1.5 litere plastic bottle thinking it was ‘fizzy wine’ LOL 😂

If a recession happens again we will have to water it down to make it last longer!

utmbuilder wrote: »

I dont care what happens im not going back to drinking prosecco, its moet all the way or no way.

Assetbacked

bri007 wrote: »

Moët wow your posh, I thought we were posh drinking cider from a 1.5 litere plastic bottle thinking it was ‘fizzy wine’ LOL &#55357;&#56834;

If a recession happens again we will have to water it down to make it last longer!

A recession would be a positive thing for Ireland in the current climate as we have a situation now where wages are not climbing to match rents and utilities. As a result, the situation currently is a struggle for the majority in Ireland. House prices crashing like they did after the last recession would be gorgeous.

6541

Something is not feeling right. Property in rural areas where I live are now going for outrageous money. It really has the feeling of uncharted territory.
Living in a rural town that is completely decimated, entire streets are in complete state of disrepair, no businesses no employment . Then on the outskirts properties are going for 300,000 and average rent 900 - 1100 in rural Ireland. I don't need to be a professor of whatever, but something is seriously wrong by anyone's standards.

Assetbacked

6541 wrote: »

Something is not feeling right. Property in rural areas where I live are now going for outrageous money. It really has the feeling of uncharted territory.
Living in a rural town that is completely decimated, entire streets are in complete state of disrepair, no businesses no employment . Then on the outskirts properties are going for 300,000 and average rent 900 - 1100 in rural Ireland. I don't need to be a professor of whatever, but something is seriously wrong by anyone's standards.

An average of 9,000 houses per year were built the last 7 years. We are told approximately 34,000 houses per year are required between now and 2031. I don't think we are in danger of a crash, I think we are in the depths of the tail-end of the struggle caused by the recession.

Interested Observer

Assetbacked wrote: »

A recession would be a positive thing for Ireland in the current climate as we have a situation now where wages are not climbing to match rents and utilities. As a result, the situation currently is a struggle for the majority in Ireland. House prices crashing like they did after the last recession would be gorgeous.

What a bizarre view to hold. Wages aren't climbing so we need a recession? Unemployment isn't much of an alternative.

Adrian14mz

Hi all.
I am living in the Old Bawn, Tallaght area and we are hoping to sell a 3 bed semi. It is slow enough at the moment. We get 4 couples viewing but no offers. The banks are giving people the run around and the Government are tell people not to buy yet. We have seen a big downturn in interest in the area. Is their anyong seeing the same downturn in their areas. Any info welcome.

M.Cribben

Adrian14mz wrote: »

Hi all.
I am living in the Old Bawn, Tallaght area and we are hoping to sell a 3 bed semi. It is slow enough at the moment. We get 4 couples viewing but no offers. The banks are giving people the run around and the Government are tell people not to buy yet. We have seen a big downturn in interest in the area. Is their anyong seeing the same downturn in their areas. Any info welcome.

How long has it been on the market? The process can take anywhere from 3-6 months in Dublin, sometimes longer.
Also we're heading into traditionally the slowest time of year for sales. Should be more activity after Christmas.
Another thing - Is it priced too high? The 2 most important factors for buyers are price and location. Check property price register for what similar properties in the area have sold for recently.

Adrian14mz

Thanks for your feedback.

Mr.McLovin

Adrian14mz wrote: »

Hi all.
I am living in the Old Bawn, Tallaght area and we are hoping to sell a 3 bed semi. It is slow enough at the moment. We get 4 couples viewing but no offers. The banks are giving people the run around and the Government are tell people not to buy yet. We have seen a big downturn in interest in the area. Is their anyong seeing the same downturn in their areas. Any info welcome.

My mother trying to sell her house in Castleknock. Market is flat since the summer. I've talked to two people from area selling and they're saying the same. Two different estate agents have said to me anything going for over 400k is slow in D15 since the start of the year.

That's my experience anyways...

Adrian14mz

Thanks for getting back to me. Best of luck with the sale.

ELM327

Mr.McLovin wrote: »

My mother trying to sell her house in Castleknock. Market is flat since the summer. I've talked to two people from area selling and they're saying the same. Two different estate agents have said to me anything going for over 400k is slow in D15 since the start of the year.

That's my experience anyways...

Any couple looking to buy and mortgage at 400k would need a gross combined income of ~€115k under the 3.5 times rule, or €89k if they could get a 4.5 exception.


This is why it's difficult to sell those properties, the landlords are getting out of the investment property market and private buyers can't get mortgages

JDD

I do think there will be a pick up in interest from mid-November. That's when banks open their books for 2019 exemptions. They'll give an AIP out now, knowing that'll it'll be more than six weeks before you find a house, go sale agreed and have to apply for your official loan offer letter. So those buyers who may have been looking for an exemption since June/July, and were rejected as the bank had run out of 2018 exemptions, might be going back to the bank/their broker now and getting the process going again. Certainly January will see more of that then depending on what happens with Brexit we might see a tapering off again in May/June.

Assetbacked

Interested Observer wrote: »

What a bizarre view to hold. Wages aren't climbing so we need a recession? Unemployment isn't much of an alternative.

Dare I say it but multi-national job losses would result in laid off workers returning to their countries for which they have their citizenship.

Adrian14mz

Are they still not lending for properties that need renovations. Some people are trying to buy a home that just needs a bit of work done on it but I hear that the banks are turning them away.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Assetbacked wrote: »

Dare I say it but multi-national job losses would result in laid off workers returning to their countries for which they have their citizenship.

Because everyone employed in a multinational is from another country? I work in a massive multinational and I'd estimate that at least 90 % of the staff are native Irish.

ELM327

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Because everyone employed in a multinational is from another country? I work in a massive multinational and I'd estimate that at least 90 % of the staff are native Irish.

I work in a large multinational and most staff by far, at least 70% are not Irish

snotboogie

Assetbacked wrote: »

Dare I say it but multi-national job losses would result in laid off workers returning to their countries for which they have their citizenship.

It doesn’t matter than these foreigners spend money in Ireland that supports local businesses and jobs or that the multinationals outsource to local companies or that foreign companies employ hundreds of thousands of Irish people in Ireland because we can always fall back on our booming local industries.... or go back to being the Romania of Western Europe, either way cheaper housing so win, right?