Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Tell me how · 31-10-2018 4:50pm

trellheim wrote: »

Dont mistake David Davis for a fool, he negotiated Maastricht for Major

He was government whip at the time. Not sure what role he played in actual negotiations.

His performance at the committee where he acknowledged that feasibility studies in to various industries had not been done was that of a fool.

flatty · 31-10-2018 5:18pm

trellheim wrote: »

Dont mistake David Davis for a fool, he negotiated Maastricht for Major

Civil servants did that. Davis is widely accepted to be a second rate intellect at best.

Strazdas · 31-10-2018 5:24pm

Angry bird wrote: »

The EU is punishing us line will be trotted out ad nauseum. Should joe bloggs realise that this is a lie, and there's no guarantee that this will happen, then there'll be hell to pay. I don't foresee Brexit as being this big shock, rather over time things disimprove as costs increase and standards decrease.

I think they will realise it. Brexiteers saying "Yes, Brexit is a disaster and a failure and will impact on you badly but don't worry, it's all the EU's fault, not ours" simply won't wash.

The EU will have already departed the stage leaving the Brexit mob to face the consequences.

Junkyard Tom · 31-10-2018 5:37pm

Angry bird wrote: »

The EU is punishing us line will be trotted out ad nauseum.

It's a weird juxtaposition of 'holding all the cards' with 'they're trying to bully us'.

Both victor and victim.

Frank Bullitt · 31-10-2018 5:49pm

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1057674292702396416

Coveney sounds like his patience is waining.

Feed Up · 31-10-2018 5:52pm

The hardline brexiteers want a no deal. With a no deal they can blame everyone else except themselves, the EU and especially us.

If there is a deal it will be nowhere near as good as they promised. They don't want that.

So they'll leave Theresa May in place to take the hit.

My own view is when the chaos of no deal arises towards the end of March '19 there will be a deal. What it will look like I have no idea.

EKRIUQ · 31-10-2018 5:54pm

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1057674292702396416

Coveney sounds like his patience is waining.

I think they will keep kicking the can down the road knowing that they can secure a deal quicky to get them to a transition period, every deadline has been passed so far I don't see November being any different.

If the EU were serious they would stall talks and prepare for a no deal but that's not going to happen until next February.

An Ciarraioch · 31-10-2018 5:57pm

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1057674292702396416

Coveney sounds like his patience is waining.

Raab sounds delusional, saying a deal could be finalised in three weeks, when there appears to be no progress whatsoever.

Enzokk · 31-10-2018 6:27pm

Feed Up wrote: »

The hardline brexiteers want a no deal. With a no deal they can blame everyone else except themselves, the EU and especially us.

If there is a deal it will be nowhere near as good as they promised. They don't want that.

So they'll leave Theresa May in place to take the hit.

My own view is when the chaos of no deal arises towards the end of March '19 there will be a deal. What it will look like I have no idea.

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Raab sounds delusional, saying a deal could be finalised in three weeks, when there appears to be no progress whatsoever.

The EU has been clear that there needs to be a deal on the Withdrawal Agreement around now as it will take time to get through all the parliaments, in case the Wallonia for example votes against it. That will leave time where a new deal can be agreed to get it through.

If you leave it too late from the UK side you are basically giving in to EU demands as it will need to be that good for all EU parliaments to accept it without too much hassle.

But a deal like that will probably look like BRINO (Brexit in name only) and it will not quieten down the ERG and Nigel may make a reappearance in UK politics which the Conservatives will want to avoid.

briany · 31-10-2018 6:29pm

Feed Up wrote: »

The hardline brexiteers want a no deal. With a no deal they can blame everyone else except themselves, the EU and especially us.

If there is a deal it will be nowhere near as good as they promised. They don't want that.

So they'll leave Theresa May in place to take the hit.

My own view is when the chaos of no deal arises towards the end of March '19 there will be a deal. What it will look like I have no idea.

Hardline Brexiteers always wanted a no-deal if they weren't given the deal that was never really on the cards. That's been known for about as long as these negotiations have been going, or at least certainly since May said, "No deal is better than a bad deal.".

charlie14 · 31-10-2018 6:30pm

EKRIUQ wrote: »

I think they will keep kicking the can down the road knowing that they can secure a deal quicky to get them to a transition period, every deadline has been passed so far I don't see November being any different.

If the EU were serious they would stall talks and prepare for a no deal but that's not going to happen until next February.

December 2017 the border issue should have been sorted conclusively before any movement to phase 2 talks.

The U.K. was on the hook then and we let them wriggle off it with a fudge.

Tell me how · 31-10-2018 6:49pm

charlie14 wrote:

The U.K. was on the hook then and we let them wriggle off it with a fudge.

I think we all thought the backstop agreement was acceptable last December.
It was until the UK introduced legislation which would inhibit it's implementation but they only did that because the backstop was so successful from an Ireland/EU perspective.

Rhineshark · 31-10-2018 6:49pm

charlie14 wrote: »

December 2017 the border issue should have been sorted conclusively before any movement to phase 2 talks.

The U.K. was on the hook then and we let them wriggle off it with a fudge.

Nope, they agreed and signed on it. And then renaged on their word. There was no fudge, only Tory lies and bad faith.

Dyr · 31-10-2018 6:53pm

TBH I'm almost hoping for a hard Brexit just so to see the look on all these leave lads faces when they realize they've just f***ed their economy off a cliff.

brickster69 · 31-10-2018 7:06pm

Rhineshark wrote: »

charlie14 wrote: »

December 2017 the border issue should have been sorted conclusively before any movement to phase 2 talks.

The U.K. was on the hook then and we let them wriggle off it with a fudge.

Nope, they agreed and signed on it. And then renaged on their word. There was no fudge, only Tory lies and bad faith.

Incorrect. The December agreement was agreed in principle ( 2 ) and also under the caveat that " nothing is agreed until everything is agreed "
The agreement is in the link below.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf

brickster69 · 31-10-2018 7:06pm

Rhineshark wrote: »

charlie14 wrote: »

December 2017 the border issue should have been sorted conclusively before any movement to phase 2 talks.

The U.K. was on the hook then and we let them wriggle off it with a fudge.

Nope, they agreed and signed on it. And then renaged on their word. There was no fudge, only Tory lies and bad faith.

Incorrect. The December agreement was agreed in principle ( 2 ) and also under the caveat that " nothing is agreed until everything is agreed "
The agreement is in the link below.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf

Enzokk · 31-10-2018 7:27pm

Here is an article on the UK negotiation tactics of trying to go beyond Barnier to get better terms for the UK.

Why the UK’s Brexit negotiation tactics drew a blank

brickster69 wrote: »

Incorrect. The December agreement was agreed in principle ( 2 ) and also under the caveat that " nothing is agreed until everything is agreed "
The agreement is in the link below.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed cuts both ways. We can have a great agreement for the UK where they get all the benefits and none of the "drawbacks" of EU membership, but if there is not an agreement on NI then it will not happen.

The same as the EU can get 98% of the way to getting what they want but if it is not signed off then we are back to the start.

Kermit.de.frog · 31-10-2018 7:37pm

Provocative headline in the Telegraph saying Ireland 'warns' UK (nonsense of course) but it's the comments underneath that are most entertaining.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/31/brexit-latest-david-davis-concedes-defeat-brexit-deal-admits/

Telegraph readers seem to have a thing for 'Eire' and WW2.

Rhineshark · 31-10-2018 7:40pm

brickster69 wrote: »

Incorrect. The December agreement was agreed in principle ( 2 ) and also under the caveat that " nothing is agreed until everything is agreed "
The agreement is in the link below.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf

Yes, it was, but once it has been signed off by both principles, particularly when this a caveat for moving on to the next phase, it is most certainly reneging to say "what do you mean we signed up to this, we thought we were bull****ting you!"

So I stick with my prior phrasing. It was not transposed into law, but it was agreed under the expectation and agreement that it would be. The Tories backslid in a way that makes the UK look pretty bad on the international stage.

flutered · 31-10-2018 7:47pm

charlie14 wrote: »

EKRIUQ wrote: »

I think they will keep kicking the can down the road knowing that they can secure a deal quicky to get them to a transition period, every deadline has been passed so far I don't see November being any different.

If the EU were serious they would stall talks and prepare for a no deal but that's not going to happen until next February.

December 2017 the border issue should have been sorted conclusively before any movement to phase 2 talks.

The U.K. was on the hook then and we let them wriggle off it with a fudge.

rte let the cat out of the bag, the dup got excited, may got told what to do

UsedToWait · 31-10-2018 7:58pm

Bambi wrote: »

TBH I'm almost hoping for a hard Brexit just so to see the look on all these leave lads faces when they realize they've just f***ed their economy off a cliff.

Unfortunately, we're tied to these particular mountaineers, so a gentle descent might be preferable.

prawnsambo · 31-10-2018 8:07pm

UsedToWait wrote: »

Unfortunately, we're tied to these particular mountaineers, so a gentle descent might be preferable.

Not as tied as we used to be. Afaik, Belgium passed the UK as our biggest European export market this year.

Frank Bullitt · 31-10-2018 8:13pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

Not as tied as we used to be. Afaik, Belgium passed the UK as our biggest European export market this year.

It has to go through the UK to get there though.

Sam Russell · 31-10-2018 8:38pm

Gintonious wrote: »

It has to go through the UK to get there though.

Not necessarily - the boats can go the long way round - might be quicker if Dover and Calais have tailbacks into the 100 km.

Frank Bullitt · 31-10-2018 8:40pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

Not necessarily - the boats can go the long way round - might be quicker if Dover and Calais have tailbacks into the 100 km.

Which will drive up the cost and time for it to get there.

swampgas · 31-10-2018 8:49pm

Gintonious wrote: »

Which will drive up the cost and time for it to get there.

Brexit is a lose-lose for everyone. But if the UK can't get their act together we will have to take the hit, while (obviously) trying to minimise the damage as best we can.

Water John · 31-10-2018 9:00pm

Not the Tories back sliding, more importantly it was the UK Government.

EdgeCase · 31-10-2018 9:07pm

It seems the Home Office is now challenging Irish nationals born in Northern Ireland to prove they have an entitlement to live in Northern Ireland i.e. the UK.

I can see this ending VERY badly:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/31/home-office-tells-northern-irish-woman-to-prove-right-to-live-in-belfast?CMP=share_btn_tw

It's a blatant breech of the GFA.

briany · 31-10-2018 9:09pm

Bambi wrote: »

TBH I'm almost hoping for a hard Brexit just so to see the look on all these leave lads faces when they realize they've just f***ed their economy off a cliff.

The rhetoric is already that the EU and British Remain supporters are conspiring to make Brexit a failure. Hardcore Leave supporters won't be looking into the mirror on this, they'll just be upping the finger pointing.

Sam Russell · 31-10-2018 9:11pm

Gintonious wrote: »

Which will drive up the cost and time for it to get there.

Maybe longer transit time than now, but if it is certain transit time, and not too much more, then not really a problem. Savings on driver time, an extra 12 hours transit time.

Nothing like the problem for the UK car assembly plants where parts are stuck everywhere, and no reliable transit time. They will be going from 'Just in time' to 'hopelessly late', and 'We are out of here'.

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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