Economic growth doubles to 9%

Elessar · 26-09-2018 8:18pm #1

The ESRI has just doubled its forecast for Irish economic growth to nearly 9% for 2018 from its previous estimate.

The ESRI has doubled its growth forecast for the Irish economy for this year to almost 9 per cent, with growth being propelled by the twin engines of stronger-than-expected consumer spending on the domestic front, and a more favourable trade balance due to a decline in imports on the multinational side.

We're once again the fastest growing economy in Europe. Don't get me wrong this is good news, but this level of growth is completely unsustainable. I feel completely uneasy about this. I fear the boom and bust cycle is still in full swing, and we're currently in boom.

Is anyone seeing a pattern here? Should alarm bells be going off!?

frozenfrozen · 26-09-2018 8:19pm

I have a job so something must be wrong with the economy

_Brian · 26-09-2018 8:22pm

I’d love to see a map showing the geographic distribution of the growth.

I’d say it’s desperately condenced in a small number of areas.

26-09-2018 8:22pm

I'm sure appropriate scrutiny will be order of day and not collective heads in the sand. Except that injun reservation.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1 · 26-09-2018 8:22pm

Elessar wrote: »

The ESRI has just doubled its forecast for Irish economic growth to nearly 9% for 2018 from its previous estimate.

We're once again the fastest growing economy in Europe. Don't get me wrong this is good news, but this level of growth is completely unsustainable. I feel completely uneasy about this. I fear the boom and bust cycle is still in full swing, and we're currently in boom.

Is anyone seeing a pattern here? Should alarm bells be going off!?

One year, or two, is neither a trend nor a pattern. They are forecasting 5% for next year, with a caveat that Brexit may impact on that. Plus, rate of growth is skewed when recovering from a period of austerity. I wouldn't panic just yet.

noodler · 26-09-2018 8:23pm

It's not all real. Growth

TheValeyard · 26-09-2018 8:23pm

Atlantic Dawn · 26-09-2018 8:23pm

What part of hard brexit do they not understand, seriously, it will be carnage next year.

tabby aspreme · 26-09-2018 8:27pm

Why are the Multinationals importing less, has it something to do with changes in corporate taxation.

noodler · 26-09-2018 8:30pm

tabby aspreme wrote: »

Why are the Multinationals importing less, has it something to do with changes in corporate taxation.

Who said they are importing less?

Is it not more, but at a lower rate?

Zebra3 · 26-09-2018 9:06pm

Economic growth is set to double so who cares about the house prices, rents and the homeless?

Wheeliebin30 · 26-09-2018 9:12pm

Of course there will be another bust and recession, that’s how these things work.

But the key this time is not to spunk too much money on houses etc.

But that’s all we’re hearing now is spend spend spend on houses, people have very short memories.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock · 26-09-2018 9:22pm

Elessar wrote: »

The ESRI has just doubled its forecast for Irish economic growth to nearly 9% for 2018 from its previous estimate.

We're once again the fastest growing economy in Europe. Don't get me wrong this is good news, but this level of growth is completely unsustainable. I feel completely uneasy about this. I fear the boom and bust cycle is still in full swing, and we're currently in boom.

Is anyone seeing a pattern here? Should alarm bells be going off!?

Just vote Leo and Co. out in the next election and let Fianna Fail destroy the place again. Can't fight the inevitable.

The_Kew_Tour · 26-09-2018 9:24pm

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

Just vote Leo and Co. out in the next election and let Fianna Fail destroy the place again. Can't fight the inevitable.

No need

FG are doing great job of that too

26-09-2018 9:26pm

_Brian wrote: »

I’d love to see a map showing the geographic distribution of the growth.

I’d say it’s desperately condenced in a small number of areas.

Like the people?

Skylinehead · 26-09-2018 9:26pm

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

What part of hard brexit do they not understand, seriously, it will be carnage next year.

Maybe you should actually read the article.

astrofool · 26-09-2018 9:39pm

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

Just vote Leo and Co. out in the next election and let Fianna Fail destroy the place again. Can't fight the inevitable.

Willie O'Dea will be frothing at the moustache.

Wibbs · 26-09-2018 9:52pm

Elessar wrote: »

I feel completely uneasy about this. I fear the boom and bust cycle is still in full swing, and we're currently in boom.

Is anyone seeing a pattern here? Should alarm bells be going off!?

IMHO. Yes. Take personal credit. We're not as bad as we were in the "boom"? Maybe not with mortgages but personal debt has been steadily creeping up in the last five years. Home improvement loans, car financing, credit cards and so forth. Drive down any suburban road in Dublin for example and see the McMansion makeovers in play. Globally as a whole personal debt is now higher than it was in 2007(IIRC 20% higher). America usually kicks these things off and the boom/bust thing(to varying degrees of severity) in the States usually runs on a six year cycle and they're overdue a few years. Mortgages are nearly on a par with the levels of the sub prime fiasco and overall personal debt is higher than it was in 07. Car financing is higher. They've also got to deal with student loan debt which is over a third higher than in 07. That's before we look at Trump's trade tariffs and the like. Here in Ireland we're also looking down the barrel of a messy Brexit as the sugar coating on top. As well as unsustainable rent prices and so on. One advantage we have here in Ireland is that we did get a kick in the nut sack after the Celtic tiger went wallop and that might stand to us. Though as we've seen memories are short and we're so dependent on US and UK money and both aren't nearly as sure as they once were.

I have generally found that when talking heads are telling us we've never had it so good, it's a near certainty that we're likely to shortly start losing our shirts.

Capt'n Midnight · 26-09-2018 10:29pm

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

What part of hard brexit do they not understand, seriously, it will be carnage next year.

A hard Brexit will hit us by maybe 7%. A years growth lost.

In the UK they are looking at lot less than 9% growth.
2.5% for this year and next year. Combined.

And that's not the no-deal case.

ToddyDoody · 26-09-2018 10:36pm

The idea might be to save during the good times to help cope with the bad times? That's no fun, I know.

Harry Palmr · 26-09-2018 11:12pm

It's all in Dublin and the Pale. Feck all sign of 9% pa in Waterford or most parts of the country.

dxhound2005 · 26-09-2018 11:17pm

Elessar wrote: »

The ESRI has just doubled its forecast for Irish economic growth to nearly 9% for 2018 from its previous estimate.

We're once again the fastest growing economy in Europe. Don't get me wrong this is good news, but this level of growth is completely unsustainable. I feel completely uneasy about this. I fear the boom and bust cycle is still in full swing, and we're currently in boom.

Is anyone seeing a pattern here? Should alarm bells be going off!?

Don't get me wrong but why are you saying it is good news and then it is bad news?

JohnnyFlash · 26-09-2018 11:21pm

Zebra3 wrote: »

Economic growth is set to double so who cares about the house prices, rents and the homeless?

What alternative economic theory would you suggest we pursue? Back of a fag packet sort of stuff.

JupiterKid · 26-09-2018 11:22pm

Yes, I would be sceptial. The period 2013 to 2017 was a recovery period from the recession but the boom/bust cycle is very much still in play and IMO the economy is overheating and the govt seem to be fuelling the fire with pro-cyclical fiscal policies.

Memories are very short and we never seem to learn.

The growth is restricted to major urban areas, particularly Dublin which is the engine of growth and is becoming a city state effectively decoupled to a large degree from the rest of the country.

Rural Ireland beyond the urban commuter belts has slipped into a prolonged and possibly irreversible decline.

JupiterKid · 26-09-2018 11:22pm

Yes, I would be sceptial. The period 2013 to 2017 was a recovery period from the recession but the boom/bust cycle is very much still in play and IMO the economy is overheating and the govt seem to be fuelling the fire with pro-cyclical fiscal policies.

Memories are very short and we never seem to learn.

The growth is restricted to major urban areas, particularly Dublin which is the engine of growth and is becoming a city state effectively decoupled to a large degree from the rest of the country.

Rural Ireland beyond the urban commuter belts has slipped into a prolonged and possibly irreversible decline.

I see things going tits up in around 2020/21. Time will tell. When will Leo tell those who are cautious to go kill themselves?

kneemos · 27-09-2018 2:02am

Nalani Fancy Tightrope wrote: »

One year, or two, is neither a trend nor a pattern. They are forecasting 5% for next year, with a caveat that Brexit may impact on that. Plus, rate of growth is skewed when recovering from a period of austerity. I wouldn't panic just yet.

Their forecasting appears to be the equivalent of sticking your head out the window to declare the weather conditions.

Sunny Disposition · 27-09-2018 2:11am

Nine per cent growth is massive, obviously not sustainable. No doubt we are a great example of a boom/bust economy. Dunno how much can be done about it when it is so open.

As an aside given how dominant Dublin is, the government need to put in place some incentives to encourage people to work from home. Most office jobs can be done remotely most days of the week. If the Gov can encourage companies to promote this it would go a long way to taking the sting out of Dublin property and congestion as well as finally tackling urban/rural imbalance.

suicide_circus · 27-09-2018 5:38am

damned if I do damned if I don't.

buy a house now at the "top" of the market and go into negative equity or continue to pay rents spiralling ever farther out of reach.

The Rape of Lucretia · 27-09-2018 7:11am

suicide_circus wrote: »

damned if I do damned if I don't.

buy a house now at the "top" of the market and go into negative equity or continue to pay rents spiralling ever farther out of reach.

Definitely the second option. Its not even a contest.

suicide_circus · 27-09-2018 7:13am

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Definitely the second option. Its not even a contest.

i can't wait forever unfortunately, life circumstances are making these choices for me

jacksie66 · 27-09-2018 7:17am

This post has been deleted.

Economic growth doubles to 9%

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