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Sunday 23rd: Potential Storm Discussion

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124

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    #92
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I see GEM goes for this on the latest run,

    Interesting to see what the EC does in the next 45mins

    gem-0-72.png?12


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    #93
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Met Éireann shaping a depression moving over with pressure about 995 over Ireland.


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    #94
    Rhineshark
    Registered Users Posts: 632 ✭✭✭Rhineshark


    Harry Palmr wrote: »
    All I'm learning is that at the rate they're naming storms we'll be back round to A monikers pretty quickly.

    Eh, not unusual to get a train of storms in off the Atlantic in autumn.

    Might have started a little early, I guess.


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    #95
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users Posts: 15,199 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    No mention of Sunday at all on the forecast after the 6.1


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    #96
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    No mention of Sunday at all on the forecast after the 6.1

    There was, he showed the depression moving over us and said a small bit about it but that it’s developing.


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    #97
    Storm 10
    Registered Users Posts: 5,877 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    No mention of Sunday at all on the forecast after the 6.1

    He did and he said it's one we will have to keep an eye on, what were you watching


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    #98
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    No mention of Sunday at all on the forecast after the 6.1

    He did ,Saturday night Sunday morning a low moving through.
    And will be keeping an eye on it over the next two days


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    #99
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,825 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    I made this back last year, but I see some questions about model run timings, so it might be useful again:

    Thanks for that Mjohnston, very handy.

    rQIY6k6.jpg?1


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    #100
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1042846400072085506


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    #101
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,825 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The ECM not as intense on the 12Z run as last nights ( a good 40 - 50 km/h lower on this run )

    This could have a different look to it over a few more runs. Very fast jet over Ireland. Will depend on where , when and by how much the LP deepens.

    ( the first chart in Carlow Weathers tweet is from the 0Z run as far as I know but has the 12Z on it? )


    oaizFJ3.png


    k7jPsOX.png

    T5QXgG6.png


    tulHIGC.png

    mW28XhH.png

    jGcBLBn.png


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    #102
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,825 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Met Eireann
    Issued at: 20 September 2018 19:14


    NATIONAL OUTLOOK

    This weekend's weather is looking disturbed with the jet stream lying over Ireland, and details are uncertain at this stage. But there is the potential for storm development close to and over Ireland.
    On Saturday night and early Sunday there is the likelihood of more widespread heavy and possibly thundery rain, with some strong or possibly stormy winds possible, as a low tracks close to or over Ireland. Further updates will issue on this closer to the time.


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    #103
    Martin_D
    Registered Users Posts: 181 ✭✭Martin_D


    SleetAndSnow wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1042846400072085506

    Love Carlow Weather (great to follow on Twitter) but I note tendency to call possible storms by the next name in the sequence before they are formally named. Think this tends to minimise effect of naming convention if names are prematurely assigned and conditions may not materialise- public attention needs to be drawn to actual serious weather conditions and new naming is one way to do this if it is not dumbed down.


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    #104
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users Posts: 15,199 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    He did and he said it's one we will have to keep an eye on, what were you watching

    I was watching it. Mustn't have heard him correctly. I was expecting a bit more info given what's on the website that's all.


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    #105
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,825 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    UKMO 12Z

    The UKMO has the system a bit deeper and moving a bit faster than the ECM. Similar isobar gradient. Almost exact same track.

    0MMD9Iy.png


    pvTfv6n.png


    XvVy6aq.png

    TT7ViDg.png


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    #106
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,825 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Rainfall predictions from the ECM, 24 hr up until 13.00 on Sun 23

    After being initially mild in the S, the system clears and with the aid of the developing area of HP to the W there will be an airflow from the NW introduced with associated upper trough and cool uppers. Along with the Jet could lead to Thunderstorm activity.







    KZPnqbc.png



    vGf9w7o.png

    THBvL8h.png

    BZyivEF.png

    Vd98GBm.png


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    #107
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,881 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Siobhan showed storm Saturday night like GEM


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    #108
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,477 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    MJohnston wrote: »
    Kermit has flipped his luck this season after nailing all the snow threads!

    2idrif.jpg


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    #109
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,477 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Although still time here...


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    #110
    Quazzie
    Registered Users Posts: 28,834 ✭✭✭✭Quazzie


    So am I right in saying the storm is going to miss us (for the most part)


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    #111
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 1,986 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Quazzie wrote: »
    So am I right in saying the storm is going to miss us (for the most part)

    There is still some model disagreement, even just 3 days out, so it's impossible to tell at the moment until we get some more consistency.


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    #112
    spookwoman
    Registered Users Posts: 9,922 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    There is still some model disagreement, even just 3 days out, so it's impossible to tell at the moment until we get some more consistency.

    BBC weather are saying the same, models are different and one to watch for updates


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    #113
    Pretzill
    Registered Users Posts: 4,683 ✭✭✭Pretzill


    I'm prepared either way for the ferry crossing on Sunday :eek:

    giphy.gif


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    #114
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,881 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Extremely unstable over us at the moment

    There will certainly be a lot of rain between now and Sunday and late October type temperatures

    My take on the storm is that it will intensify over Britain but its back edge could cause some high Winds in the Eastern half of Ireland

    Needs to be watched as it is fairly strong out in the Atlantic then weakens a lot on approach to us but gathers intensity in the slipstream of the fast moving jet over us and more especially over Britain


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    #115
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,825 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Justs shows the uncertainty and how hard it is for the models to predict the outcome of the wave depression as it interacts with the Jet as it gets close to us all moving along at a fair clip.

    Xe1LPkA.gif

    lXhvIEg.png

    hLfDO0p.png

    Ysp259J.png


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    #116
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Jean Byrne there on the radio now never mentioned anything for Sunday. "Rain overnight Saturday night, clearing up Sunday. More settled from Monday". That's all she said.


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    #117
    Davaeo09
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,220 ✭✭✭Davaeo09


    Watching this one like a hawk. First full weeks holiday in 2 years booked for Sunday. Flying out around lunch time :/


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    #118
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,825 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Tracking well S on the overnight runs. Windy along the coasts for a time and wet over Southern counties . Latest guidance suggests winds gusting 60 to 70 km along S coasts. The threat of a storm would appear to be receding.


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    #119
    giveitholly
    Registered Users Posts: 5,546 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Tracking well S on the overnight runs. Windy along the coasts for a time and wet over Southern counties . Latest guidance suggests winds gusting 60 to 70 km along S coasts. The threat of a storm would appear to be receding.

    Would there be much rain out of the system on current guidance


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    #120
    sideswipe
    Registered Users Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭sideswipe


    Thread gone quiet....please tell me that's because the potential storm has disappeared? Need Sunday AM to be a decent!


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    #121
    stevek93
    Registered Users Posts: 3,088 ✭✭✭stevek93


    sideswipe wrote: »
    Thread gone quiet....please tell me that's because the potential storm has disappeared? Need Sunday AM to be a decent!

    Quiet before the storm?


This discussion has been closed.
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