Sherlock - A game of Werewolf!

Steve WW · 19-09-2018 07:40PM

#ffa3
Liam
Gabriel
Holly

Liam for same reasons as I gave last night and I notice he's still on the day 1 reasoning for Abigail

Orla WW · 19-09-2018 07:50PM

Updated FFA Day 3:

Player Name Choice 1 Choice 2 Choice 3
Winifred WW Derry Gabriel Liam
Liam WW Abigail Holly Steve
Gabriel WW Holly Liam Steve
Brendan WW Isla Nigel Liam
Nigel WW Gabriel Holly Steve
Abigail WW Liam Steve Isla
Orla WW Liam Nigel Gabriel
Conor WW Isla Steve Riona
Holly WW Gabriel Liam Nigel
Eva WW Gabriel Steve Isla
Steve WW Liam Gabriel Holly

Results:

Liam WW 7
Steve WW 6
Gabriel WW 6
Isla WW 4
Holly WW 4
Nigel WW 3
Derry WW 1
Abigail WW 1
Riona WW 1

Liam WW · 19-09-2018 07:50PM

Derry WW wrote: »

Liam, if you think someone is a wolf, you've got to FFA them.

I'm suspicious of a lot of people, but at the moment, I wouldn't say "I think Winni or Riona are wolves". But if you're feeling strong enough to say you think Gabriel is a wolf, surely you FFA him as one of three people? Right?

Holly is landing herself on my FFA currently. One of Isla or Steve probably, since neither are contributing currently.

:rolleyes:
I thought we were focussing on the lower posters for today. But fine, yeah, Gabriel is my # wolf lean. Can I have 4 on my FFA then? I'll be voting for Gabriel tonight.

Holly WW · 19-09-2018 07:51PM

Steve WW wrote: »

#ffa3
Liam
Gabriel
Holly

Liam for same reasons as I gave last night and I notice he's still on the day 1 reasoning for Abigail

If you think Orla and Gabe are on opposite teams, and Orla is bad why has Gabe made your FFA over her?

Why are myself and Gaby there anyways, just for reasoning

Gertrude WW · 19-09-2018 07:52PM

#ffa3

Riona... I've thought about this all day and I cant get passed it. I appreciate it could be way off the mark and I should just accept Winni's list until Day 4 begins anyway but I can't get passed Riona being Irene. I won't tunnel you for the rest of the night Riona and I won't be voting for you either and maybe I'm just looking for pats on the back from the DR for spotting something (Abegate) but like I said I can't get passed how you didn't interrogated Winni like you have every other charactor that has revealed something.

Liam, hasnt offered any opinions before today and then refuses to back his opinion up by putting who he believes is a wolf on his ffa. Why try to fall in line with the pack and worry about ruffling feathers?

Gabriel, this one is from this mornings posts around clodagh where she was trying to convince me that clodagh could be wolf. I didnt buy her reasoning and couldn't understand why she kept pushing it. Clodagh being killed by the wolves is why Gabriel is here.

Liam WW · 19-09-2018 07:53PM

Has anyone run the numbers on how close we are to lylo?
Can we afford to mislynch tonight if there are 4 wolves left?

Eva WW · 19-09-2018 07:53PM

Liam - his thinking was was along my own thinking today, so there's that.

Also, he got pillaged for it, but I can see what he meant by "Not wasting my vote for the village on my own hunch, so will go with you guys"...Have we not all been there at some stage? Question him on it sure, but did we mark him for death too quick because of it?

He went on the offensive or at least tried to do some digging today, and it seemed villagery to me. Putting himself in people's crosshairs rather than just towing the company line.

Steve - Has not been around and should be my number 1 suspicion out of these names cause of that. However, I can't get by the fact that he drew lots of attention to Doris, and after looking back over her posts myself today, I have to agree she was wolfy. So Steve may have gone after a wolf, I have to take that into consideration with him.

Isla - Really don't have much of a read on Isla. Her blind devotion to Gabriel this evening raised an eyebrow - After pleading RL, saying she wished she had time to sit at a computer all day, she then catches up on a huge day's events in such quick time to say "I can definitely trust Gabriel and he never gave me a reason not to"...never mind Gabriel, any poster for all she seems to have read in the thread is a big endorsement to make. There is a lot there to consider and go back over today and yesterday, yet Isla arrived at the same time two evenings in a row with 'Hey guys:)' swiftly followed by some definite assertions.

I'm just thinking out loud here Isla and trying to get a read on you in the process. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm not really trying to mount an offense at you. Also, some of the above could be explained if you were RV, so I'm not hunting you, just thinking out loud with the rest of the names here.

Holly - At first I misunderstood today that she was turning something on me and pulling a sly one, but she was done some digging of her own since and is willing to put herself in people's crosshairs and not just be affable. Sure, a wolf could do that, but I'm not getting much of a wolf lean on Holly right now until at least I investigate more.

Oh...and Nigel, so under my radar the last 24+ hours that I've almost forgotten about him. I said early in my game though that it looked like Nigel helped solve an important part to one of the clues. We've since opined that it could still be the work of a wolf trying to impress the village, but given how detrimental to the wolves us getting that info about them would be, Nigel seemed to genuinely help and was the first to provide the 'D=1,I=2,D,I= 3...' suggestion which lead to fully solving the Moriarty clue. Again, like Steve, I should be suspecting Nigel but he seems to have done something which might have seriously hindered wolves, and not just in an 'impress the village' meagre way.

Holly WW · 19-09-2018 07:54PM

Liam WW wrote: »

Has anyone run the numbers on how close we are to lylo?
Can we afford to mislynch tonight if there are 4 wolves left?

Its 10-5 at worst case scenario I think, so 9-5 after a mislynch. We can afford two more after that

Gertrude WW · 19-09-2018 07:54PM

Holly WW wrote: »

If you think Orla and Gabe are on opposite teams, and Orla is bad why has Gabe made your FFA over her?

Why are myself and Gaby there anyways, just for reasoning

Didnt see that ffa or reasoning. Im swapping Gabriel out for steve.

#ffa3
Riona
Liam
Steve

Derry WW · 19-09-2018 07:54PM

I get good vibes from Gabriel. That could get me hung down the road. But I do. And so I fear that there's a bit of a bandwagon trying to form on him, and not much in way of actual reasons why being given.

Liam, Steve and Holly are my three.

Liam is flipping back to Gabriel now not because he thinks he's a wolf, but to boost the scores of someone else to go up against. Be honest there.
Holly, I've not been a mad fan of in terms of contributions tonight.
Steve - could be Isla as easily, but I don't like that Steve and Isla are hiding in the shadows.

Derry WW · 19-09-2018 07:57PM

Whoops, forgot to hashtag it

#FFA3 - Liam, Steve, Holly

Isla WW · 19-09-2018 07:57PM

I'm about half way through today. I see now why Brendan, wini, orla, riona and Eva are not being mentioned for todays Lynch.

Potentially self resolving claim is wini. If its real and wini dies tonight then we know Orla and Riona are villagers and Eva is auto Lynch tomorrow. If not, we can apply a little bit of tinfoil until the claim is verified by another recipient. Even if wini lives tonight, then wolves will munch or maybe pill her tomorrow and there'll be a village core of 3-4 waiting in the wings to direct. And then of course if she's pilled, she could choose wisely....

I think this all looks good for us.

Liam WW · 19-09-2018 07:57PM

My full read list fwiw

Abigail WW – didn’t like day 1 posts. Seemed forced. Talks a lot about the pills. Still a slight Wolf lean.

Brendan WW – claimed Mary Watson. Town.

Conor WW – despite 91 posts, I’ve no read on him. Solved one of the clues. Maybe slight Town lean.

Derry WW – Solved puzzles on D0, has been level headed and reasonable. Town Lean.

Eva WW – Claims she was subbed in on D1. Has been more vocal since then. Got note from Wini. Town lean.

Gabriel WW – Antagonistic, spent 2 days having loud and long arguments with Orla/Des/etc. Wolf lean.

Gertrude WW – low poster. strongly felt des was the SK. Town lean.

Holly WW – low poster. Going after Nigel for wolf. Unsure.

Isla WW – low poster. Says she was hospitalised yesterday. Not a lot else to go on but a slight Wolf lean.

Liam WW - Village

Nigel WW – Claimed he was away most of Monday to explain no posting. Has been much more involved since then. Working to collate stuff for the village. Not sure how useful the posts have been though. Slight Town lean.

Orla WW – Another loud person. Refused to do FFA on Day 1 but gave a leans list on everyone. Maybe getting a list out early so she could claim to be helping the village? Opposed to Gabriel today. Got note from Wini.

Riona WW – Paranoid. Lol. Trying to remain level headed this game though so village points for that. Could also be playing differently as he’s a wolf now though. Got note from Wini. Unsure but slight Town Lean.

Steve WW – Claims he was hospitalised yesterday but was coy about it. Not sure why? Maybe started the Doris train last night? Clashed with Orla last night about low vs high posters. Town lean.

Winifred WW – nutter who came out with 3 wolves on day 1 and hasn’t changed story all game. Claims she’s been sending notes to players all game. Has Eva, Orla, Riona to confirm her claim. Village lean.

Gabriel WW · 19-09-2018 07:58PM

There is absolutely a wagon forming. Earlier FFAs has me there sporadically, with decent reasons. People are jumping in with the same reasons and abandoning the low poster approach.

Eva is leading the charge here and I'm surprised Orla is rowing in behind given her low poster push over the last two days. That Liam knows I'm a wolf but won't put me up until cajoled to do so is rediculous.

Look at the very least I've given you a nice neat wagon to analyse.

Orla WW · 19-09-2018 07:59PM

FFA Results Day 3, Again....

Player Name Choice 1 Choice 2 Choice 3
Winifred WW Derry Gabriel Liam
Liam WW Abigail Holly Steve
Gabriel WW Holly Liam Steve
Brendan WW Isla Nigel Liam
Nigel WW Gabriel Holly Steve
Abigail WW Liam Steve Isla
Orla WW Liam Nigel Gabriel
Conor WW Isla Steve Riona
Holly WW Gabriel Liam Nigel
Eva WW Gabriel Steve Isla
Steve WW LIam Gabriel Holly
Gertrude WW Riona Liam Steve
Derry WW Liam Steve Holly

Results:

Liam WW 9
Steve WW 8
Gabriel WW 6
Holly WW 5
Isla WW 5
Nigel WW 3
Riona WW 2
Abigail WW 1
Derry WW 1

Screw you all, seriously.

Riona WW · 19-09-2018 08:00PM

In terms of clodagh and Brendan, for them to be bad I think:

- they need to know Vig and Mary are dead
- they need to be able to manipulate Vig or have a Bullet (Jeff’s power today was just poison, could it of been bullet yesterday? Wendy said she got note saying 1 day no kill for Jeff- not a rabbit hole I have time to explore)

If they are good they have made some mistakes that could look dodgy and cast shade:

- immediately jumping on Eva (if Eva is good)
- not using other bullet when munch or Jeff kill was on cards
- clodagh and Brendan not discussing reveal and having a decent cohesive plan to come out together
- Brendan coming out after 10 on thread (waiting for Barbara kill or power?), perhaps just delayed post
- Clodagh for outing Brendan (our BG) to the wolves
- Brendan sounding sorry for coming out even though he admits they discussed the fact that they actually discussed her coming out
- clodagh forcing Winnie out which forced three other potential goodies out into the mix

This very behavior is why I’m just a bit skeptical of clodaghs reveal. Howeve, since I can’t resolve which bad powers could be used to manipulate this situation I can’t say Brendan or clodagh were wolves. For now I don’t see the benefit offing Brendan or Winnie.

Just throwing out a few strategies

Tomorrow Winnie sends the letter to the second name on the lynch list tonight.

If Sherlock is around he could peak all three of me Eva and Orla as a group. Assuming we all come up clear (and no wolf can get past his powers) then that could clear us and put the doubts to bed if he came out tomorrow after Jeff’s kill. With potentially a BG and jailer we could have a massive 6+ village core along with whoever else Sherlock knows about.

We could easily get another day out of Sherlock but of course the risk is the jailer is dead.

Sherlock can pm mods and ask if any wolf gets past his peaks. And ask if Mycroft shows up bad aswell cause that’s a waste of time if he does.

It’s a suggestion as a strategy.

Gabriel WW · 19-09-2018 08:00PM

If people are putting me up for being antagonistic and a bit of a dick, ask yourselves how wolfy is that actually?

And who exactly have I protected? Who are my wolf buddies? No-one. I've treated everyone the same.

This wagon is a joke.

Soz Eva, we were definitely on a break.

Eva WW · 19-09-2018 08:00PM

Isla WW wrote: »

I'm about half way through today. I see now why Brendan, wini, orla, riona and Eva are not being mentioned for todays Lynch.

Potentially self resolving claim is wini. If its real and wini dies tonight then we know Orla and Riona are villagers and Eva is auto Lynch tomorrow. If not, we can apply a little bit of tinfoil until the claim is verified by another recipient. Even if wini lives tonight, then wolves will munch or maybe pill her tomorrow and there'll be a village core of 3-4 waiting in the wings to direct. And then of course if she's pilled, she could choose wisely....

I think this all looks good for us.

Oh ok, well in my last post I had misunderstood that you had caught up on all the thread in record time to make such quick assertions. Apologies about that as you are obviously catching up now and doing your investigating.

Isla WW · 19-09-2018 08:01PM

@Eva - that read on Gabriel was based on the first 2 days. Obviously i couldnt give him a read based on today when I hadnt read hardly any of today. That was just a spouting of thoughts from before I started my read

Liam WW · 19-09-2018 08:01PM

Derry WW wrote: »

I get good vibes from Gabriel. That could get me hung down the road. But I do. And so I fear that there's a bit of a bandwagon trying to form on him, and not much in way of actual reasons why being given.

Liam, Steve and Holly are my three.

Liam is flipping back to Gabriel now not because he thinks he's a wolf, but to boost the scores of someone else to go up against. Be honest there.
Holly, I've not been a mad fan of in terms of contributions tonight.
Steve - could be Isla as easily, but I don't like that Steve and Isla are hiding in the shadows.

Ah here **** off. I actually can't do anything right for you people. :mad:

Derry WW · 19-09-2018 08:06PM

Liam WW wrote: »

Ah here **** off. I actually can't do anything right for you people. :mad:

Eva WW · 19-09-2018 08:12PM

Gabriel WW wrote: »

If people are putting me up for being antagonistic and a bit of a dick, ask yourselves how wolfy is that actually?

And who exactly have I protected? Who are my wolf buddies? No-one. I've treated everyone the same.

This wagon is a joke.

Soz Eva, we were definitely on a break.

WE WERE NOT ON A BREAK :mad:

Well if you're calling wagon, in fairness, in the meantime since you left I've abided by our ceasefire. Sure, I put in my FFA with you on it, but if I didn't have you on it I'd be strung up after today's back and forth.

I've been looking at the other posters in the meantime. Like this time last night with Orla, I still haven't registered my vote and am open to strategies.

Conor WW · 19-09-2018 08:15PM

Riona WW wrote: »

Just throwing out a few strategies

Tomorrow Winnie sends the letter to the second name on the lynch list tonight.

If Sherlock is around he could peak all three of me Eva and Orla as a group. Assuming we all come up clear (and no wolf can get past his powers) then that could clear us and put the doubts to bed if he came out tomorrow after Jeff’s kill. With potentially a BG and jailer we could have a massive 6+ village core along with whoever else Sherlock knows about.

We could easily get another day out of Sherlock but of course the risk is the jailer is dead.

Sherlock can pm mods and ask if any wolf gets past his peaks. And ask if Mycroft shows up bad aswell cause that’s a waste of time if he does.

It’s a suggestion as a strategy.

When do you think the best time to send the note is?

Brendan WW · 19-09-2018 08:16PM

Riona WW wrote: »

In terms of clodagh and Brendan, for them to be bad I think:

- they need to know Vig and Mary are dead
- they need to be able to manipulate Vig or have a Bullet (Jeff’s power today was just poison, could it of been bullet yesterday? Wendy said she got note saying 1 day no kill for Jeff- not a rabbit hole I have time to explore)

If they are good they have made some mistakes that could look dodgy and cast shade:

- immediately jumping on Eva (if Eva is good)
- not using other bullet when munch or Jeff kill was on cards
- clodagh and Brendan not discussing reveal and having a decent cohesive plan to come out together
- Brendan coming out after 10 on thread (waiting for Barbara kill or power?), perhaps just delayed post
- Clodagh for outing Brendan (our BG) to the wolves
- Brendan sounding sorry for coming out even though he admits they discussed the fact that they actually discussed her coming out
- clodagh forcing Winnie out which forced three other potential goodies out into the mix

This very behavior is why I’m just a bit skeptical of clodaghs reveal. Howeve, since I can’t resolve which bad powers could be used to manipulate this situation I can’t say Brendan or clodagh were wolves. For now I don’t see the benefit offing Brendan or Winnie.

Just throwing out a few strategies

Tomorrow Winnie sends the letter to the second name on the lynch list tonight.

If Sherlock is around he could peak all three of me Eva and Orla as a group. Assuming we all come up clear (and no wolf can get past his powers) then that could clear us and put the doubts to bed if he came out tomorrow after Jeff’s kill. With potentially a BG and jailer we could have a massive 6+ village core along with whoever else Sherlock knows about.

We could easily get another day out of Sherlock but of course the risk is the jailer is dead.

Sherlock can pm mods and ask if any wolf gets past his peaks. And ask if Mycroft shows up bad aswell cause that’s a waste of time if he does.

It’s a suggestion as a strategy.

Just on this, I posted my reveal at 10am not after 10, just happens the mods got there before me. I did not say I discussed my reveal with Clodagh - she was in jail at the time so she didn’t have access to the BR

Holly WW · 19-09-2018 08:17PM

Where are people voting then? The more we know the less chance we have of repeating last night.

Are we sticking to FFA? I'll be voting Gabs in that case

Baggly · 19-09-2018 08:18PM

Eva WW wrote: »

WE WERE NOT ON A BREAK :mad:

Well if you're calling wagon, in fairness, in the meantime since you left I've abided by our ceasefire. Sure, I put in my FFA with you on it, but if I didn't have you on it I'd be strung up after today's back and forth.

I've been looking at the other posters in the meantime. Like this time last night with Orla, I still haven't registered my vote and am open to strategies.

Thats a pretty big exception to the 'ceasefire' though Eva.

Strategy im going for is a low poster. My vote for Liam was in a good while ago.

Nigel WW · 19-09-2018 08:18PM

Liam WW wrote: »

Has anyone run the numbers on how close we are to lylo?
Can we afford to mislynch tonight if there are 4 wolves left?

Hard to know without Priest to tell us if any of the dead are wolves. Holly's already mentioned the worst case scenario (10-5), but if Des was a wolf (personally I didn't see it, but it seems a lot of people thought so), then it'd be now 11-4. One mislynch and it'll be 10-4. Munch and pill tomorrow will make it 8-4. Second Mislynch will be 7-4. Another munch and pill would make it 5-4. Which I think would be end-game. Even if it was a wolf lynch then, bringing it to 5-3, it would follow with another munch and pill which would be game over.

That doesn't take in to account jailers / bgs, and the 50/50 chance of the pill working though. That could extend the number of mislynches we can afford, above is just worst case based on the assumption of 4 wolves left.

Speaking of which, if Priest is around, I think some information prior to tomorrow's munch might be good. Great and all to stay hidden this long, but we'll probably be needing solid data to work off by then.

Brendan WW · 19-09-2018 08:19PM

Pter wrote: »

Thats a pretty big exception to the 'ceasefire' though Eva.

Strategy im going for is a low poster. My vote for Liam was in a good while ago.

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Baggly · 19-09-2018 08:19PM

Holly, can you expand upon your read of me please?

"Gabriel - Wolf lean, thought he had a good D1 at the time but I'm not so sure now, today has been dismissive and for want of a better word, victimized. Very wolfy day from Gabs imo."

Nigel WW · 19-09-2018 08:20PM

Holly WW wrote: »

Where are people voting then? The more we know the less chance we have of repeating last night.

Are we sticking to FFA? I'll be voting Gabs in that case

Barring some major revelation in next 40 minutes, I'm sticking to my FFA.

Sherlock - A game of Werewolf!

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