Brexit discussion thread IV

brickster69 · 14-09-2018 7:30pm

Like the quote from Toblerone " A Mondelez spokeswoman told the BBC the change 'wasn't done as a result of Brexit ', but acknowledged that the foreign exchange rate is 'not favourable' at present."
Can't remember them adding an extra couple of chunks when the exchange rate was 1.45. Corporate greed ripping off consumers, we are all mugs !

Junkyard Tom · 14-09-2018 7:37pm

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

If they could freeze this moment in time forever they would. Extending that out, a hard border drawn across the island once again aligned to direct rule from Westminster will feel like the early 70's once again.

We shouldn't forget that the suspension of Stormont, and imposition of direct rule, by the British was considered a betrayal by Unionists. It took a massive strike, enforced by unionist paramilitaries, to bring down Sunningdale and suspend Stormont in the early 1970's.

In 2016 a former IRA commander and current deputy First Minister brought down Stormont by the stroke of a pen.

This is their 'victory'.

Capt'n Midnight · 14-09-2018 7:41pm

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0914/993655-brexit-legal-system/

Mr Justice Clarke said that Ireland could become a safe haven for many international disputes, as the only full common law country in the EU.

The rest of the EU uses Civil Law, as does the rest of Europe including Russia and Turkey , Latin America, and places that used to be French, Spanish or Portugese Colonies.

This may be important for companies from countries that used to be UK colonies, like the USA if they want to take a case in the EU. Like Apple and the €13Bn or the ones trying to sue VW for Billions.

An Ciarraioch · 14-09-2018 7:54pm

Raab briefly claims to have solved the Border - until Barnier slaps him down in perplexed bemusement:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/14/eu-officials-refute-raab-claim-that-brexit-talks-are-closing-in-on-deal

Professor Moriarty · 14-09-2018 8:03pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

Those are registered offices of the marketing arms of Mondelez, and is equivalent to Lidl addresses on their products. We get UK spec product at inflated prices from Mondelez. Always have.

I prefer to see it as corporate philanthropy. They cut the size in response to Ireland's growing obesity problem.

Capt'n Midnight · 14-09-2018 8:21pm

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Many Brexiteers will read this, see the 30% predicted house price crash, and say "excellent"

Someone needs to tell the OAP's what this would mean if they were to go for equity release on their homes.

Further down the property ladder this could put a lot of people in to negative equity.

Yes it is a worst case scenario. At least they still have 196 days to sort everything, because nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, out before the Article 50 process they triggered kicks in automatically.

The UK starting the ball rolling before they understood the EU's position.

Which is a shame because it's pretty much the position as at the Schuman Declaration back on 9 May 1950. If only they'd paid attention.

BBC article about how the old European Coal and Steel Community set path for the EU a lifetime ago.

First Up · 14-09-2018 8:50pm

UsedToWait wrote:

It would have been much better being resolved by PM. Pretty tedious to read yiz dancing on the head of a pin.

Absolutely not. Supply chains and currency movements will be a critically important factor in post- Brexit trade. It deserves detailed scrutiny and discussion.

UsedToWait · 14-09-2018 9:05pm

First Up wrote: »

Absolutely not. Supply chains and currency movements will be a critically important factor in post- Brexit trade. It deserves detailed scrutiny and discussion.

Fair enough..
I had deleted the post after you had started responding.

Capt'n Midnight · 14-09-2018 9:07pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

PR-STV is in play for Assembly elections.

Check out that for a truer reflection of the state of play.

The UK is reducing the number of MPs and MLA's
Check out the wee Gerrymandering which will reduce the seats for parties other than the DUP.

MP Lady Sylvia Hermon may loose her Westminster seat and in the Asembley it's looking like SDLP -2 seats, Alliance -1, UUP -1, SF -1; DUP unchanged. And since there's less seats then the Petition of Concern would likely be theirs to use and abuse again.

It's nice to have a party in power who might need your votes friends.

The RHI scam is still unravelling. You need 6,000 hours of heat but the best tariff only applies to 1,314 hours ?

Arlene's special advisor Dr Crawford suggested the boilers be allowed to run for 3,000 hours at the higher tariff. And the next trick was to get the same heat in less hours by allowing bigger boilers and tuning them on and off a lot under the scheme changes, boilers which were twice as big would have been eligible

More sleaze ?
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-45515428 dodgy fundraiser

Environment Secretary Michael Gove has apologised for attending a dinner hosted last year by Ian Paisley, according to a Conservative councillor.

...
Causeway Coast and Glens Council paid £1,500 for the table at last September's event hosted by the DUP's Ian Paisley.

It was previously revealed Mid and East Antrim Borough Council had sponsored another table for the same sum.

That is now being treated as a "donation" to the North Antrim MP by the Electoral Commission.
...
Councils are not considered "permissible donors" and money from such bodies must be returned.

Infini · 14-09-2018 9:13pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The UK is reducing the number of MPs and MLA's
Check out the wee Gerrymandering which will reduce the seats for parties other than the DUP.

MP Lady Sylvia Hermon may loose her Westminster seat and in the Asembley it's looking like SDLP -2 seats, Alliance -1, UUP -1, SF -1; DUP unchanged. And since there's less seats then the Petition of Concern would likely be theirs to use and abuse again.

It's nice to have a party in power who might need your votes friends.

Well well well, someone over there doesn't seem to learn or know their history and remember how that turned out THE LAST TIME THEY DID THAT! :rolleyes:

An Ciarraioch · 14-09-2018 11:21pm

Luke Ming Flanagan has apparently received legal opinion stating that it is up to the Irish government to decide whether or not NI residents can vote in our European elections post-Brexit:

https://m.facebook.com/Lukemingflanagan/posts/1878391482238159?__tn__=K-R

Water John · 14-09-2018 11:51pm

The UK High Court finds against the Vote Leave campaign and also the Electoral Commission. The £435K Dup donation is also in the crosshairs.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/14/judges-brexit-vote-eu-referendum-vote-leave

Kermit.de.frog · 15-09-2018 3:05am

This is incendiary for the government if true in tomorrows independent

Government puts Brexit deal ahead of Border

Explaining why the Irish government is now willing to back down on the issue of the backstop, another source said "we are going to run out of time" and the Government needs to ensure the transition period is in place.

listermint · 15-09-2018 3:26am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is incendiary for the government if true in tomorrows independent

Government puts Brexit deal ahead of Border

Senior brexit sources.

I stopped at the first line.

Good night

Panrich · 15-09-2018 7:22am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is incendiary for the government if true in tomorrows independent

Government puts Brexit deal ahead of Border

This will make the Irish and EU positions look very silly if this is actually true.

The UK tactics all along was to drag this out long enough so that everyone would realise that a deal couldn’t be done and then get their cake via a fudged deal.

judeboy101 · 15-09-2018 7:35am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is incendiary for the government if true in tomorrows independent

Government puts Brexit deal ahead of Border

Perfect excuse for FF to call election.

lawred2 · 15-09-2018 7:39am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is incendiary for the government if true in tomorrows independent

Government puts Brexit deal ahead of Border

Well that would make the Irish government look like clowns.

Infini · 15-09-2018 8:11am

Could be just a whole lot of waffle too. A change in language but not the core substance is just rearrangimg the deck chairs.

An Ciarraioch · 15-09-2018 8:41am

Infini wrote: »

Could be just a whole lot of waffle too. A change in language but not the core substance is just rearrangimg the deck chairs.

Yes - once you go past the dramatic headline, the substance of the article corresponds more to Barnier's "de-dramatising" the language around the backstop, rather than taking a wrecking ball to the whole thing.

listermint · 15-09-2018 8:43am

Why is this article still getting credence... Its from he indo for one. And it says senior brexit sources for two.

Both unreliable

Panrich · 15-09-2018 9:06am

listermint wrote: »

Why is this article still getting credence... Its from he indo for one. And it says senior brexit sources for two.

Both unreliable

Yes the Brexit source is quoting as though inside Irish government circles. Is there a fox in the henhouse?

PeadarCo · 15-09-2018 10:47am

listermint wrote:

Why is this article still getting credence... Its from he indo for one. And it says senior brexit sources for two.

The problem for Ireland is unless the UK stays in both the customs Union and single market there will be a hard border. The Irish government has no control over what the UK does. The idea the government would soften the language wouldn't be unexpected if it meant the UK stayed in both the customs Union and single market for a transition period. That would give more time for the UK government to sort itself out and hopefully agree to something that avoids a hard border. Given the mess the UK is in I would find it hard for them to come up with a solution.

However providing Ireland stays in the EU its the UK government that will decide if there will be a hard border. Its something no Irish government can change.

joeysoap · 15-09-2018 11:20am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Government puts Brexit deal ahead of Border

.

https://youtu.be/ttMt9SHRwsM

Won’t happen

Capt'n Midnight · 15-09-2018 11:32am

listermint wrote: »

Senior brexit sources.

I stopped at the first line.

Good night

Government willing to soften language of Irish backstop on avoiding hard Border in Brexit negotiations

So nothing new then. A lot of NI politics has been about finding the right words so as not to upset anyone.

Tony Connelly's latest doesn't mirror the indo
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/0915/993822-brexit-salzburg-summit/

EU side aren't ruling out Chequers because that would mean the Brexiteers Canada+ path would then be the only option left on the UK side. All over an internal struggle within a minority on the right wing of one political party. It's about keeping options open rather than supporting Chequers.

Capt'n Midnight · 15-09-2018 12:00pm

Oh look , someone is using the €11Bn figure for NI subvention to predict up to 15% fall in living standards here on reunification.

- It's a lot less than €11Bn
- There's EU funding
- we can borrow until NI productivity approaches ours
- our economy grew 2.5% last quarter.
- the HSE and NHS are slowly converging.
- the UK could be expected to take on some of the cost for future savings

An Ciarraioch · 15-09-2018 12:06pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Oh look , someone is using the €11Bn figure for NI subvention to predict up to 15% fall in living standards here on reunification.

- It's a lot less than €11Bn
- There's EU funding
- we can borrow until NI productivity approaches ours
- our economy grew 2.5% last quarter.
- the HSE and NHS are slowly converging.
- the UK could be expected to take on some of the cost for future savings

And another question mark - have living standards fallen in the western Länder due to subsiding the former DDR? The evidence of the last 30 years suggests otherwise.

Sam Russell · 15-09-2018 12:42pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Oh look , someone is using the €11Bn figure for NI subvention to predict up to 15% fall in living standards here on reunification.

- It's a lot less than €11Bn
- There's EU funding
- we can borrow until NI productivity approaches ours
- our economy grew 2.5% last quarter.
- the HSE and NHS are slowly converging.
- the UK could be expected to take on some of the cost for future savings

Looking at the graphic :-

1. It all depends on the detail of the UI agreement. Following a transition period, tax rates and social welfare would equalise - probably to Irish rates. That would increase both headings.

2. Vat receipts would increase by about 10% net, as Irish rates are about 10% above UK rates (20% vs 23% and 5% vs 13.5%). The same 10% could be expected from employment taxes.

3. Contributions to UK National Debt and UK defence would cease.

Those figures alone add up to a difference of about £5 billion pounds per year. Now add in the likely drop of the value of the GB£ of 10% to 20% following the crash out from the EU, and the likely continued growth of the Irish economy - even after the damage a crash out would cause, and the figures look like a possibility. Now add in the likely contribution that the EU and UK might add into the mix, and it might get close to a zero difference.

However, until the details are hammered out, there is only speculation. Perhaps we might get Boris, Mogg and Gove onto the case.

judeboy101 · 15-09-2018 3:33pm

Panrich wrote: »

Yes the Brexit source is quoting as though inside Irish government circles. Is there a fox in the henhouse?

Well we did just put an mi5/6 man in charge of our state intelligence service.

An Ciarraioch · 15-09-2018 4:28pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

listermint wrote: »

Senior brexit sources.

I stopped at the first line.

Good night

Government willing to soften language of Irish backstop on avoiding hard Border in Brexit negotiations

So nothing new then. A lot of NI politics has been about finding the right words so as not to upset anyone.

Tony Connelly's latest doesn't mirror the indo
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/0915/993822-brexit-salzburg-summit/

EU side aren't ruling out Chequers because that would mean the Brexiteers Canada+ path would then be the only option left on the UK side. All over an internal struggle within a minority on the right wing of one political party. It's about keeping options open rather than supporting Chequers.

Coveney was very quick off the mark to dismiss the Indo article:

http://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1040889220963987456

Water John · 15-09-2018 6:12pm

Hope the journalist Shona Murray has done her research on her article. Journalists must take ownership of whatever they write, whether correct or not.
It seems to be not widely accepted that what she has written is correct.

Brexit discussion thread IV

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